NFL Picks Week 9
Last week, my picks did real bad. Even with some surprises, I somehow got back to 7-8. Did you pick Washington and/or Arizona to win? I picked them BOTH!!! Go check. I did. Well, let me try to gain some more momentum back with the 13 games this week.
Fantasy football people, please note, bye weeks continue! Now the byes get crazy with 6 teams on bye this week. This scheduling makes no sense and less so as we go.
Season to date: 53-66-1 after eight weeks. Not great at all.
Bonus picks: 1-1 this week, 30-18 to this point. The World Series was exciting! I wanted KC to win, but SF earned that Game 7 win. Congrats to them. The race at Martinsville was exciting. I know Dale Jr. was happy to finally win there, though he would have loved to be racing for the title, but he was eliminated after bad luck at Talledega. I wonder if he considered letting that go to let Gordon win and advance to the finals of the Chase, but no true racer would have done that, even for a teammate with a championship shot. Texas this Sunday will be wild.
Don't forget, clocks fall back a hour to Standard Time (where applicable) at 2 am, Sunday morning! Enjoy the extra hour of sleep!
Teams with the Week 9 bye:
1. Detroit (6-2): These Lions…..wow what a
crazy team.
2.
Green Bay (6-2): The Packers
are a strong team.
3. Buffalo (5-3):
4. Atlanta
(3-5): The
5. Tennessee (2-6):
6. Chicago (3-5):
Thursday Night Football (NFL Network): New Orleans at Carolina: The first of the TNF games exclusively on NFL Network is must-see TV! This game is for the lead in the NFC South, but this is NFC joke here. All four teams are below .500 and the loser will have 5 losses (barring ANOTHER TIE!). Even 1-6 Tampa Bay is still in this race (only 2 1/2 games out).
We are staring at a division winner entering the playoffs with a losing record (and would be a 4 seed hosting a wild-card game). With that said, the Saints have their best chance (since Opening Day) to win on the road. They wasted chances at Detroit and Atlanta and I know they had a lot of road games early. We know this team is awesome at home, but they must win a road game with their next 3 at home. After this one, there are only three left (at Pittsburgh, at Chicago and the finale at Tampa Bay) Carolina is reeling after a good start and this is a must win. Lose (or even tie) this game and the Panthers have not a great chance of rallying…even in this division. The Saints can get monster momentum with 5 of their final 8 at home. But that road win now is a major need, just like any win would be big for Carolina right now, being 1-3-1 in their last 5 games.
Who wins? Short and sweet…This will be a fight. In the SuperDome, this shaky Carolina D would have no chance. However, at Charlotte outdoors at night…they have a chance if they can get to Saints QB Drew Brees. The score will not be that high. But I have more faith in the experience of Brees and the Saints to win a nearly must-win game. They will steal this one and move on. Saints win.
New Orleans 28 Carolina 24
Sunday's games:
Denver at New England: Game of the Week I: Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning. Enough said. You know the records and the stats. The rematch of last year’s weak AFC Championship game will be riveting, but with much on the line. Denver is doing well, but this is the start of a stretch of a lot of road games and Denver is less effective away from home. This Denver team is NOT as good as last year’s though the defense is improved and Manning is doing well. Winning games away from Mile High Stadium is a challenge. Beating Brady at home, no matter who is (or is not) playing with him that day is a bigger challenge.
Who wins? The supporting casts decide this one. Both QBs will get theirs so it comes down to everything else. Denver’s defense is better than last year, but the Patriots is not. Bottom line, coaching favors the Patriots. Too close to call. Whoever makes the last mistake loses. I am taking the odds and NE at home.
New England 30 Denver 27
Arizona at Dallas: Game of the Week II: Yes! The surprise NFC (and NFC West) leaders come east to play in a huge game for both teams. The winner gains more control over their destiny. The loser falls back closer to the pack of teams behind them. Dallas must win this game after being upset at home on MNF by their arch-rivals in OT. Knowing they still have another game after this before their bye, protecting injured starting QB Tony Romo is key. He looks like he will play here, but if he gets hurt again….season over.
Dallas RB DeMarco Murray is awesome setting a ongoing NFL-record with 8 straight (and counting) 100-yard rushing games to start the year (over 1,000 yards). He can be considered a MVP candidate, if he can complete the season healthy. Can he keep it going, and more importantly, make it to the bye (and beyond) without serious injury? Arizona is the shock story of the NFL (bigger than Dallas and their start). So many injuries, so much to overcome but the Cardinals may be only a few weeks away from clinching a playoff berth? Really? Yes. If Arizona wins, they have total control of their destiny. Can they do it? 2 games with Seattle and the road rematch with SF still await them, both of whom will be desperate teams. This game will be good. Watch it.
Who wins? The Cardinals have looked like a playoff team, despite everything, but their lucky start has to stall sometime, right? Maybe not. Dallas cannot afford another HOME loss (in six days, no less), period. If Romo is not at his best along with Murray, I see another upset here. Romo won’t be 100 percent, and his backup Brandon Weeden is not good enough to outduel Arizona QB Carson Palmer (and it pains me to write that). Sorry, Dallas, you lose again.
Arizona 35 Dallas 34
New York Jets at Kansas City: This should be a no-brainer. The Jets have lost 7 straight and would be in line for the top pick in the 2015 draft if they hadn't beat Oakland at home in Week 1. But there is still time...lol. Veteran and well-known backup QB Michael Vick is the new starter in place of erratic youngster Geno Smith. So far, Vick (other than running, which was always a strength of his) has shown nothing that could help the Jets win. Can a full week of first-team reps help? Injuries and bad luck have not helped. Now they go into Arrowhead Stadium to face the Chiefs, who are tough at home. These Chiefs have been up and down all year. They got crushed here by the Rams early in the season, but they also destroyed the Patriots here on MNF a few weeks ago when they couldn't do anything, it seems. However, NE has been on fire ever since. Newly re-signed QB Alex Smith has been decent all year, but these Chiefs are not the team that started 9-0 last year. Including themselves, 12 of the 16 AFC teams have 4 losses or fewer. There are only so many playoff spots. Kansas City cannot blow this game!
Who wins? The Chiefs were blasted last week and now need to be in must win mode to make the playoffs, regardless of the opponent. The Jets can be spoilers, but they need to assess what they actually have to plan for next year, especially if they fire coach Rex Ryan and/or their GM. I will discuss that situation more in coming weeks. Chiefs (had better) win.
Kansas City 30 New York Jets 20
Jacksonville at Cincinnati: This is a must-win for the Bengals. They have not looked good of late and the entire AFC North is right behind them. True, not having all-world WR A.J. Green has not helped, but that is no excuse, especially when their kicker blew a relatively close FG to win at home over Carolina at the end of overtime, leaving the game as a tie. They also must not look ahead to their short week game versus the Browns, nor the Ravens, who they did beat last week to win ultimate tie-breaker over them, who face the Steelers on the road. Green should be back today, so that is huge. Jacksonville is just trying to get a win and develop rookie QB Blake Bortles more. A road win over a division leader would be big, but can they do it?
Who wins? The Jaguars are not going to lay down, but I just cannot see how they upset the Bengals unless the Bengals play poorly, like the Carolina tie, but even so, I don't see the Jags getting 37 points in the first place. No upset here, Bengals win.
Cincinnati 30 Jacksonville 20
Philadelphia at Houston: The Eagles look dangerous again, but their agonizing loss to surprise NFC West leader Arizona will hurt, but not as much if the Cardinals upset the Cowboys on the road (more possible with rumors that Dallas QB Tony Romo is out today). The Eagles get a road challenge in the Texans who have all-world DE J. J. Watt and friends waiting. The Texans offense cannot score with the Eagles hurry-up offense, but they can run the ball and control that clock behind RB Arian Foster who is rolling in the last month. The longer the Texans offense is on the field, the better their chances are of winning. Can the Eagles' defense get the Texans off the field and let their offense get it done?
Who wins? The Eagles need this win to stay close to Dallas, who go on bye after their London trip next week. Houston must win to stay close to the Colts, who already beat them, but they can hope for a late-season swoon to possibly slip into the playoffs at the last minute similar to San Diego last year. This game is important. I do think a balanced Texans team can get this upset, for the Eagles look primed for such. I am taking Houston.
Houston 31 Philadelphia 28 (OT)
San Diego at Miami: The Chargers come East to face the Dolphins. This game is big for both teams as both fight for a wild-card berth and are in fighting range in their division. Both need help from others to get there, but first, they must win themselves. The Dolphins have had to overcome injuries and more to be doing okay so far, but how far can they go? The Chargers are fighting to prove last year's playoff team was no fluke. But their TNF loss to Denver hurts. The winner of this game stays in the playoff pack...the loser falls back, but are not done.
Who wins? West Coast teams historically have troubles coming East to play, but this game will be close. Bottom line, San Diego has QB Phillip Rivers and Miami does not. That is the difference. I am taking the Chargers. I would take a glance at this game, for these teams will matter later in the season.
San Diego 27 Miami 24
Tampa Bay at Cleveland: Cleveland has surprised many by being still in the playoff race at this point in the year, though others have a lot to do with that. Still, maybe the bigger surprise is that QB Brian Hoyer is still the starter. Not to me. Hoyer is scrappy and he is a good QB. Rookie backup Johnny Manziel could not lead the Browns to wins at this point, and Hoyer is proving his stats of last year before he got hurt was no fluke. This team is a wild-card in the playoff race, both for the division and the AFC as well. Tampa Bay had hoped to be better but they are not. Even so, they still have a outside chance of stealing the NFC South where everyone sucks, but the upsets need to start here to do so. Will the Browns let another underdog team come in and beat them?
Who wins? This is a trap game for Cleveland. They did have to fight to get past winless Oakland, and they did lose to then-winless Jacksonville after crushing Pittsburgh before that. Tampa has hope. Cleveland has more and they are at home. That is enough for me. Browns win.
Cleveland 30 Tampa Bay 21
St. Louis at San Francisco: The Rams have fought hard despite having so many injuries. If it weren't for that, they might have been near the top of the NFC West like the Cardinals. But they are not. Now they travel west to face QB Colin Kaepernick and the Niners who are in the race, but need wins. They have to feel okay about things with Seattle struggling and knowing their showdowns with them are close. More importantly, they need to win games to even get in the playoffs again. TE Vernon Davis seems to be better, but the Niners have too many weapons for these Rams. But the defense of the Rams is built to stop San Francisco, but can they steal a big one in the Niners' new home?
Who wins? The Niners have been shaky at home so far this year, but they cannot blow this one. Arizona and Seattle are both (possibly) expected to win this week, so they must get this one. No excuses. The Niners understand this with the experience they have, and they get it done. Niners win.
San Francisco 34 St. Louis 27
Washington at Minnesota: The Redskins are on
Cloud 9 after a major MNF overtime upset of Dallas on the road. But on a short
week, they must travel to Minnesota looking to extend their win streak before
next week’s bye. Also, reports say that injured starter QB Robert Griffin III
will start this game instead of Monday’s hero Colt McCoy. Win or lose, is this
wise, especially if Griffin struggles or worse, gets hurt again? Minnesota has
hung tough despite not having all-world RB Adrian Peterson. Rookie QB Teddy
Bridgewater may be the real deal, but he is young and the Vikings needs help as
they continue in their temporary outdoor home. This could be a interesting
game.
Washington 27 Minnesota 24
Oakland at Seattle: Okay…the Raiders are in bad shape and have a lot of bad luck. But they could be worse. Still, the remaining schedule offers few, if any, legit opportunities to win and avoid being the second team to go 0-16 in the modern era. However, this team does have talent and rookie QB Derek Carr is looking more and more like the real deal every game. This kid has a legit shot at Offensive Rookie of the Year (especially if the Raiders win a few). The Seahawks barely won...again. Setting aside the team’s less than stellar showings on the road lately, Seattle looks shaky. Even at home, facing the last winless team after a horrible performance at Carolina is the making of a major trap game….especially with must win games coming next. Unless division leader Arizona and/or Dallas, Detroit and Green Bay all go into slumps now, Seattle may be one or two losses from not making the playoffs at all. Anything less than a (choose adjective) beat-down will really make the natives restless about their champs chances, especially if Arizona beats Dallas on the road this week, something the Seahawks failed to do AT HOME!
Who wins? Forget the records. Oakland is a spoiler team that should scare everyone. This is also their first of the finishing schedule of hell (2 more games against the NFC West plus Buffalo and 4 division games ending at Denver). This year's schedule is hell on this division and the NFC West. 0-16 is possible, but I see upsets coming. But not this week. If Seattle plays this game like last week, they will lose. But Oakland does not have the firepower to take advantage of Seahawks mistakes…now. Forget about the Raiders beating Seattle in preseason. In four years, when they play again in regular season….the roles may be reversed. But for this week, Seattle wins. If Seattle does lose, this will be bigger than Washington beating Dallas on Monday night.
Seattle 34 Oakland 28
Sunday Night Football: Baltimore at Pittsburgh: The complexity of this game has changed a LOT since these teams met in Week 2. Baltimore had a lot of controversy going on then, yet they destroyed the Steelers on a Thursday night anyway. They have overcome and were flying high (forgive the pun) until they lost to Cincinnati again, and the season series as well. The Steelers have been fighting hard to stay in the division race which is wide open. Both teams are 5-3. The loser will be in a harder spot for a playoff berth (Baltimore for a 3rd division loss, Pittsburgh for losing the season series to Baltimore AND a third division loss). Plus, this is a top-5 rivalry in this league. Always must-see TV.
Who wins? Baltimore needs this win bad…but so do the Steelers. The Bengals are barely hanging on to the division lead and the surprising Browns are right behind them all with both teams about to go on bye. Every game matters now. Big Ben was on fire last week, but Ravens QB Flacco did almost the same thing the week before…in less time. This will be a war. I am taking Baltimore in OT. Any result is possible here…but honestly, a tie would help them both…a little.
Baltimore 31 Pittsburgh 28 (OT)
Monday Night Football: Indianapolis at the New York Giants: The Colts are rolling right along in the AFC South and have the chance to cruise to a division title behind QB Andrew Luck. But Denver, NE (one of whom will lose in their showdown on Sunday) and reeling Cincinnati stand between the Colts and a top AFC seed. Hence, these Colts must keep winning, especially on the road in cold weather. The Giants are having a tough year, but still have hope to rally back into the race with division leaders Dallas and Philadelphia both losing. QB Eli Manning gives the Giants a chance. But can they pull off this upset with all the adversity facing them? These Colts are good.
Who wins? The Giants always fights hard, but the injuries they have suffered and the tough schedule may be too much to overcome. The Colts are getting closer to a clear path to another division title, but they need momentum and a top 2 seed would be huge if they want to advance in the playoffs, where a meeting with Denver NE and whomever wins the North would be a eventuality. It is early to consider that, but not for a dome team in a conference where there are a lot of good cold-weather teams that are likely to be playoff opponents. Colts win here, but they are far from a perfect team.
Indianapolis 34 New York Giants 27
Bonus picks: NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup: Race 8: Texas: This race is big, especially for Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski who finished fairly far back at Martinsville. I won't call it a must-win, but a win would be big, for it would put that driver in the championship matchup in 2 weeks at Homestead. If any of the 8 Chase drivers finish outside the top 20 here, they may be done for Phoenix is not a crazy change everything track like Talledega. It is do-or probably die here this week.
Prediction: Harvick and Keselowski, despite shaky qualifying runs, will rebound, but all 8 will do well. I am not thinking a Chase driver will win this week, either, which would mean 3 (or maybe all 4) finalist spots would be decided on points. Expect these 8 drivers to drive like this is Homestead this week, and more so next week. If they have a chance to steal a win, they will do and knock anyone aside to do it. And I would not blame them. I expect more fighting during or after this race, but Brad K. must be careful since he is on probation. Have at it, boys!
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