My picks for Week 13 of the NFL season (based on my thoughts, my research and what I think ONLY!):
Disclamer: These are my picks and opinions only. If you make picks and/or bet money, favors or whatever based on what is listed below with whomever or wherever, that is on you. If you win, great! Let me know (or even send me a small cut of the profits...lol!) If not, don't bitch. These picks does have 50/50 odds. Better than the lottery. If some team chokes a game due to..whatever...not my fault. I will be mad too. Maybe!
Disclaimer done: Let the games begin!
Bye weeks are done! All teams are back into play for the final five weeks. Starting next week, after my picks, I will list the playoff picture and chances for post season play for each team as I see it. Fantasy football players, be sure to double check your leagues so that all of your spots are covered!
This is Thanksgiving Week, so get your rosters ready NOW!
Week 13 Games:
Thanksgiving Day Games: Note the start times, network pre-game at this time or a half-hour earlier. NFL Network and ESPN coverage start earlier. No NFL Network game this week.
Green Bay at Detroit: Thursday afternoon 12 noon on Fox: This will be a good game, but not as good as it could have been. However, this game actually has intrigue for the HOME team for once. The Lions are tied for first in the NFC North with Chicago, even with blowing their game with Tampa Bay last week. Better yet they have ultimate tiebreaker over the Bears. However, Green Bay has already beat Detroit at home. But that was before QB Aaron Rodgers got hurt. They could be tied with the others right now, but instead had a inexplicable TIE with Minnesota last week. Rodgers is very unlikely to play in this one. Backup (again) Matt Flynn starts this game (you can Google his NFL journey of the last 2 years), hence the Lions will be happy. Surely they haven’t forgotten Flynn throwing for 6 TDs against Detroit in a meaningless finale at Lambeau in 2011. Detroit realizes that if they finish in a tie with Chicago, they are in the playoffs. But if Green Bay beats the Lions or TIES them, tiebreakers go to the Packers. Simple bottom line. Lions: Win out and go to the playoffs as a 4 seed at worst. Green Bay: Win out and get help to get in the playoffs. That tie all but prevents a wild-card berth (having lost to SF anyway), but it can save them…later. We will see. But if Green Bay loses this game, and Chicago, Arizona and San Francisco win on Sunday, the Packers are basically all but done for this year. Simple as that. I know Detroit has sucked on Thanksgiving, but with something BIG to play for and with Green Bay hurting, I believe the underdogs in blue will finally win their Thanksgiving game for once. Playoffs for Detroit? I hope so, but to do it, the Lions MUST WIN THIS GAME!
Detroit 28 Green Bay 27
Oakland at Dallas: Thursday afternoon at 330pm on CBS: Both teams have had a tough year, but are hanging on to some playoff hope. The home-standing Cowboys are tied with Philadelphia in the NFC East and have all the tiebreakers on their side. Unfortunately, they also seem to need to win out to win this division. They are two games out of the second wild-card, but odds are very against them to finish ahead of SF and Arizona and Chicago and/or Detroit and/or Green Bay. The Raiders still have slim playoff home in the AFC for the second wild-card, but losing to Tennessee at home on Sunday hurts. However, there is a chance that if Oakland wins out and with some help (meaning losses) from other teams like the Titans and Dolphins, the Raiders may sneak in. That big challenge starts here. Oakland lost here in a rare Thanksgiving appearance 4 years ago and this Raiders fan, for one, would love to return the favor. Dallas has had success on Thanksgiving recently, but lost to the Redskins last year. I think that losing streak goes to two against a rookie QB on Thanksgiving. Raiders in a close one and a major upset.
Oakland 23 Dallas 17
Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Thursday Night at 8pm on NBC: This is a rivalry game and an elimination game. The winner stays in the race for the second AFC wild-card and outside chance at the AFC North (both trail Cincinnati by 2). Loser is basically done for both. (If they tie, both are done.) Simple as that. Since the Bengals have lost to Baltimore already and don’t see them again until the end of the season, you can guess who they want to win. But this Ravens team never stops fighting and they don’t lose often at home, especially in prime-time. Weather won’t really matter either (though snow would have been fun!). Ravens win and split the season series with Pittsburgh.
Baltimore 29 Pittsburgh 27
Sunday games:
Jacksonville at Cleveland: Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson is a beast anywhere and NO ONE wants to mess with their return game. But doing it outdoors in cold weather is no easy feat. Consider this practice for next year when the Vikings will be playing outdoors while their new outdoor stadium is built. I see a big day for Peterson, but the cold will ultimately get the Vikings. Cleveland plays tough at home, but if QB Brandon Weeden has to be the starter again after Jason Campbell got hurt last week, I cannot see the Browns winning, but the Jags…in cold weather…I don’t know. Honestly, no one outside of the team cities cares about this game...much. Okay, I will take the home team…barely.
Cleveland 20 Jacksonville 16
Tennessee at Indianapolis: This game will be weird. The Colts are better than we thought they were, but they are far from a complete team. They are having slow starts and two inexplicable blowout losses in recent weeks. Without those two losses, the Colts might have been in position for the 1 seed in the AFC now. Instead they are in the 3 seed spot. Tennessee is hanging on to the second AFC wild-card after beating Oakland, but a big pack of teams are right there. They also trail the Colts by two games in the division, despite losing starting QB Jake Locker for several weeks, and now, for the year to injury. The Colts must win to stay in the race for the top AFC seed, but know that they still control the division either way. If the still-dangerous Titans win, they tighten up the division race, but more importantly, stay in control of the 6 seed, where winning out is the only way to clinch such without help (which may occur in coming weeks). I would have picked QB Andrew Luck and the Colts to win easily, but these recent losses worry me, even though they handled the Titans in Nashville a few Thursday nights ago. Titans in a upset.
Tennessee 24 Indianapolis 23
Miami at the New York Jets: Okay, this will be an interesting game. This is also a elimination game. Both teams trail New England by 3 games in the AFC East (no surprise there). Both also are tied with the Titans for the second AFC wildcard, but trail in the tiebreaker, though the Jets win the head to head tiebreaker for now. The winner stays in the race for the wildcard, the loser is all but done. Both teams are inconsistent and have issues off the field. Both realize the Titans are likely to lose to the Colts this week, and either Pittsburgh or Baltimore (and maybe San Diego too) will also fall back. This game is big. However, Miami going north to rather cold New Jersey….Miami is too weak and inconsistent to win up there, even with the inconsistent Jets. I am taking the home team.
New York Jets 27 Miami 24
Arizona at Philadelphia: MAJOR BIRD WAR!!!! These two former NFC East rivals meet in cold Philadelphia for more than bragging rights. Arizona is only a tiebreaker (SF) out of the second NFC wildcard and 1 game behind Carolina for the other one, surprising to almost everyone. The Eagles are two games behind the Cardinals, but are still tied with Dallas for the NFC East lead though they do not have the tiebreaker. Like many other games this weekend, this game is a virtual elimination game. The winner stays in the playoff race, the loser is almost done. Again, I have issues picking a West Coast (dome) team coming East to win outdoors in cold weather over an East Coast team. However, these Cardinals are shocking a lot of folk and I am going to go with them over these Eagles, even with them coming off bye. QB Nick Foles is officially the Eagles starter for the rest of the year, but his great run ends here. Sorry.
Arizona 27 Philadelphia 24
Cincinnati at San Diego: The Chargers are hanging on in the AFC playoff race by little more than a fingernail, for now. They must win out and get help to get in (which may happen), but upsetting KC at Arrowhead Stadium last week definitely helps. The Bengals have a 2 game lead in their division and will enter this game knowing who is still chasing them (Baltimore and Pittsburgh play Thanksgiving night), but they have a outside shot at a top 2 seed. San Diego QB Phillip Rivers is on fire of late, and I can’t go against him at home. Plus, the Bengals have had some inconsistency lately. Chargers win in a upset.
San Diego 28 Cincinnati 24
Chicago at Minnesota: The Bears are still tied with Detroit for the NFC North lead, but they have already lost the tiebreaker to the Lions. Hence, they MUST win the division outright to make the playoffs, plus they are already close to out as far as either wild-card berth. Minnesota showed heart last week in their strange TIE versus Green Bay minus Aaron Rodgers. Minnesota is now a spoiler team, and a good one at that. They may have spoiled Green Bay's playoff chances last week by not losing to them. Can they do the same to the Bears? Chicago has looked bad lately, and they are not the same team away from Soldier Field. Now they must face Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson on the road and the Vikings have nothing to lose? Bears are losing this one in a tight one. Sorry.
Minnesota 28 Chicago 24
Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Panthers are the hottest team in the NFL right now with 7 straight wins. They still trail the Saints by a game with TWO matchups with them looming in the final 4 weeks that will decide the division. The Bucs have won 3 straight after starting 0-8. This is a classic trap game with the Bucs out of the playoff race. However, QB Cam Newton and the top-rated Panthers defense will be too much to stop at home. Panthers win, but it will not be a big scoring game.
Carolina 23 Tampa Bay 20
New England at Houston: Houston has gone from Super Bowl contender at the start of the year to the bottom of the NFL with 9 straight losses. They have coach Gary Kubiak back, but QB Tom Brady and the Patriots come to town after a team-record comeback Sunday night against Peyton Manning and the Broncos. The Patriots must keep winning to keep the AFC 1 seed, and I cannot see the Texans winning, unless something bad happens to Brady. Sorry Houston, you have too many problems. NE wins.
New England 31 Houston 23
Atlanta at Buffalo (at Toronto Canada): Buffalo comes off their late bye barely in the AFC playoff race, but hopeful. Atlanta, another Super Bowl contender at the start of the year, finds themselves done with games remaining due to many injuries and bad luck. If this game was in Buffalo, the Falcons would have no chance in the snow and cold. However, this game is the now-annual game indoors in Toronto, which is much different. Few really care about this game, but we have to pick it. Atlanta is playing out the schedule, but the Bills still have a chance at that wild-card. What if? I take the Bills for this one in OT to stay close…for now. Beware the Bills in 2014. Mark my words.
Buffalo 30 Atlanta 27 (OT)
St. Louis at San Francisco: This is now a game of major importance. Seriously. The Niners are barely hanging on the final NFC playoff spot. The Rams trail by two games and know that the Niners are shaky, despite a relatively easy win over the Redskins on Monday night. Both are unlikely to win the AFC West with Seattle far ahead, but both may have a playoff shot. The Rams have overcome a lot to still be hanging around. However, the Niners know they must win out to make the playoffs and have a chance to defend their NFC championship. The Rams D is becoming good. The Niners D is a bit better NOW and they have a more complete offense, even without WR Michael Crabtree making his season debut this week. SF wins.
San Francisco 27 St. Louis 21
Denver at Kansas City: This is possibly the game that will decide the AFC West champion. The winner of this game will still be in a fight for the top AFC playoff seed. The loser will almost surely be the first AFC wild-card. Simple bottom line. KC choked at home to San Diego, but worse yet, lost two of their linebackers to injury. Denver was up 24 at New England on Sunday night, but STILL lost in OT in the Massachusetts cold. Arrowhead Stadium won’t be much warmer, in either crowd sentiment or in weather. Despite the losses, I am taking KC. Are you convinced yet that Denver QB Peyton Manning cannot play well in cold weather? If last week or the playoffs last year didn’t convince you, this week will. Both teams NEED this game. Only one can have it Chiefs win at home.
Kansas City 27 Denver 24 (OT)
New York Giants at Washington: Sunday Night Football on NBC: Well, this is an interesting one. The Giants have a slim chance at the NFC East title, trailing by 2 games after a 0-6 start. The Redskins are done after losing at home to the Niners on Monday. Why watch this game? Quarterbacks! RGIII versus Eli Manning for the first time this year. This game may be entertaining just for that. As far as the rest, not so much. But what if Dallas and Philadelphia both lose this week? You never know. I will take the Redskins in a upset, but few finishes will surprise me here.
Washington 24 New York Giants 23
Monday Night Football on ESPN. Note the 830pm start time.
New Orleans at Seattle: This is the best and most important game of the season on MNF. This is a important game for several reasons. This could be a NFC Championship preview. Simple bottom line. The winner is likely to be the NFC top seed. The loser may be the two seed (or worse, in the Saints’ case). Seattle is likely going to wrap up the NFC West in a week or two, but the Saints have Carolina on their heels and two games looming against them starting next week. Seattle’s home-field advantage is huge. New Orleans has a similar advantage in the Superdome. However, the Seahawks has looked shaky for weeks, even at home (remember Tampa Bay?) and now their “Legion of Boom” secondary is being decimated by injury and drug suspensions. Saints QB Drew Brees and the Saints offense is dangerous anywhere where bad weather is not involved. If your secondary is not up to snuff, you are in trouble. Seattle QB Russell Wilson and RB Marshawn Lynch is good. Brees and crew is better with or without a weakened defense facing them. Saints win in a (minor) upset.
New Orleans 27 Seattle 24 (OT)
Bonus picks:
I went 3-0 on bonus picks last week, so that is nice. I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving holiday weekend and an even better (and SAFE) holiday season!
Think
my picks suck? Send me a reply and tell me why! Good luck to everyone.
NFL
picks: 93-80-1 after 12 weeks; 19-14 on bonus picks; Total: 112-94-1 overall (as
of November 8). I told you my picks would get better.
