2015 NFL Picks: Week 8 plus the World Series and the Chase for the Sprint Cup continues

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2015 World Series:  NL champion New York Mets vs (2 time defending) AL champion Kansas City:
   This is a situation of experience versus high momentum. The Mets have ridden great trades, some luck, some bad juju that other teams could not overcome and clutch play to get to the World Series. The Royals were a top contender to do well in the American League again after shocking the world to get to the World Series and lose in 7 games to San Francisco. Unlike the Giants, who have not been able to get it done in consecutive years, the Royals did the job, won the AL Central this year (they were a wild-card last year) and marched back to the World Series to face the Mets, who are seemingly the 2015 version of...themselves. This will be a fun series...if outside BS doesn't screw it up.

Who wins? The Mets seem to have the better starting pitching rotation and actually NOT having home field advantage is good for a National League team (their pitchers don't have to hit in the AL park and a extra bat gets in as the designated hitter, while the AL pitchers must hit in the NL park and the Royals lose the DH in those (middle) 3 games). But the Royals have a good TEAM all around, and having most of their team back from last year's World Series team does matter. And yes, having home field if the series must go six or seven games DOES MATTER! This will be tight and I expect multiple extra-inning games. But at the end of the day....experience wins the day. It has worked for the Giants winning 3 World Series in the last six years, and it will work here, and history supports it. I am taking the Royals in 6 games. Hot hitting runs out sometime, and though the Mets are rested after sweeping the Cubs, that lack of home field will get them in the end.

Kansas City in 6 games

NFL Byes this week:

1. Jacksonville (2-5):  Well, the Jaguars are getting better. They have two wins....they are not leading the pack for the top pick in the draft....They may not even draft in the top 7 at this rate. That is progress. They are just playing to get better. But....they are only one game out of first in the horrible AFC South. The division leading Colts are likely to lose at undefeated Carolina on Monday night and they go on their bye after next week's games. If the Jaguars start winning.....what if? Seriously?

2. Buffalo (3-4): The Bills started out talking smack like their new head coach Rex Ryan. They won some games and lost some, including losing to the undefeated Patriots. They may have found a gem with surprise starting QB Tyrod Taylor, but he got hurt before the London loss. The timing of the bye is big for them, for they may be able to start a rally for a wild-card playoff berth if Taylor and their injured running backs and pass catchers are all back healthy next week. Can the Bills circle the wagons and make some noise? We will see. But I have my doubts. Sorry.


3. Philadelphia (3-4): The Eagles are a shaky team. When they are together and in sync, this team is dangerous. The problem is that injuries and lack of execution have been ruling the day and hence, they have four losses....but they are still in the NFC East race. While I do think the Eagles coach and GM, Chip Kelly really made mistakes in getting rid of so many offensive play-makers in the last 18 months, getting QB Sam Bradford is actually working out...to a extent. If Bradford finishes the season healthy, I would have no problem with the Eagles resigning him, but not to a Joe Flacco-like deal or bigger unless Bradford goes off the rest of the way and leads the Eagles to the playoffs. I have my doubts on that..but the East is easier to win than to get a wild-card at this point...so who knows? Especially with the team they are tied with below.....


4. Washington (3-4): These Redskins are still a hot mess...but this team has hung tough all year with so many injuries. Is QB Kirk Cousins the actual answer at QB? After the franchise-record setting comeback last week that he led (24 point rally with throwing 3 TD passes, including the game winner and a short rushing touchdown on top of it!), one is thinking maybe he is the answer (and drafting him in the 4th round in 2011 after getting RGIII in that super-trade) and keeping (and resigning him after the season) is the right thing. But to know for sure, you need the rest of the pieces working together. Will WR DeSean Jackson be back next week (and last more than 2 quarters on the field)? Can the offensive line and young offensive players up their game in the second half of the season? Will RB Alfred Morris get the chance to run for yards and not just sit him behind rookie Matt Jones? Or better yet, let them work together to make a "Thunder and Lightning"-like backfield to get more yards and control games as the weather gets cooler and the running game gets more important? Will the Redskins find a way to trade Griffin III away before the trade deadline in a few days and not risk blowing their 2016 salary cap if they have to play him (if Cousins and/or Colt McCoy go down) and him getting hurt guaranteeing that nasty 16-plus million salary for next year? Better do the right thing, guys.

Thursday Night Football: (Final simulcast with CBS/NFL Network): Miami at New England: This game might be more interesting now that it was looking 4 weeks ago. Miami has just lost to the Jets in London and then fired their coach, and later, defensive coordinator during their subsequent bye week. The interim coach, Dan Campbell, has lit a fire under these Dolphins and the ship may have been righted after the team explodes for big points the last two weeks. But the real test of that begins now. The Patriots are rolling along and are one of 5 undefeated teams left in the league, and all 5 are finished with their byes. Two of those 5 face each other on SNF You know the players in New England. These guys are on a mission to repeat as champs...but the road gets harder from here. The big question is..which Miami team shows up in Foxboro? The horrible team that was pre-bye...or the much better team that emerged after the coach firings and the bye? And will that matter versus the Patriots at home?

Who wins? The NFL is more fun when the Dolphins are playing in relevant games. These guys may be the last hope to slow down New England....as far as the AFC East is concerned. Unless the Dolphins can put up 60 points in this game, I don't see the Dolphins winning. Yes Miami ran up nearly 50 last week, but the Patriots have better defense...for the most part. And the Patriots with QB Tom Brady could put up 60 points if the defense can't slow them down. Let's be real...I don't see a 60-59 game here, nor do I see Miami winning. I am taking New England...but if you are a betting man...I would take the Dolphins and the points...just saying.

New England 39 Miami 28

Sunday's games:

Detroit at Kansas City (played at Wembley Stadium in London): It just seems to be crappy luck (or good luck for most American NFL fans, depending on one's perspective) that these London games seem to always get teams who are not doing that well. This is the second consecutive London game and the final one for this season. These Lions played in one of these games last year and all-world WR Calvin Johnson is happy to be here, since he was out injured and didn't play in the London game last year. His Lions are doing a bit worse than last year too, as they lead the pack (tied with Baltimore) for the first overall pick in the 2016 draft with one win. The Chiefs are not doing much better. They have two wins and sit last in the AFC West and in a large pack of teams with two wins. Worse yet, the team has had both bad luck (the end of the Denver game) and injuries (losing great RB Jamaal Charles for the season with a torn ACL). Okay, other than it is mid-morning (on the East Coast) football...who really wants to watch this game? Right. Yes, I did watch some of last week's London game on Yahoo! and I will watch this game too...while I flip channels and wait for my lovely wife to finish cooking her great weekend breakfast..by 1pm if I am lucky....(no, I am not kidding..love you, Collette!) But this game may be entertaining at the end...just like last week! Maybe.


Who wins? The Chiefs are totally demoralized and their play seemed like such since the Denver loss. I see no reason why this will change this week. Detroit wants to get another win before their bye and start to look like something. Remember, these guys still have to play on Fox in their traditional Thanksgiving game...just saying. I think Detroit is more desperate to win this game and they have more available talent left to do it. Hence, I take Detroit.

Detroit 34 Kansas City 31


Tampa Bay at Atlanta: This is a NFC South game that will not have much of a effect on things...unless the Falcons lose. Tampa has shown some offensive firepower led by rookie QB Jameis Winston. But this is a rebuilding squad so one is not expecting much more than the two wins they have. Atlanta is trying to win now and being 6-1 helps. But they know that all that gets them is the first NFC wild-card as long as undefeated Carolina continues to win. Remember, they don't face Carolina for their two meetings until right near the end of the season, hence Atlanta must keep winning to not only secure that wild-card, but to also be in position to move up if they can beat the Panthers. The offense is dangerous with QB Matt Ryan, rookie RB Donte Freeman and WR Julio Jones (when he is on). This should be a relatively easy home win for Atlanta, but their recent struggles seem to say otherwise.

Who wins? Tampa has weapons and like Washington could have the offense to keep Atlanta's off the field and themselves in the game. Atlanta cannot have the weak game that nearly got them beat at home against Washington and did get them beat at New Orleans the next week. I know the Falcons are trying to hang in until they get to their bye, but every win matters, especially in conference and at home. Atlanta struggles again, but they survive.

Atlanta 30 Tampa Bay 24


Arizona at Cleveland:  Wow. Another Eastern time zone trip for the NFC West leaders, but at least they know that they finally get their bye next week in the perfect spot, halfway through the schedule. Cleveland still has 3 games (including this one) before they get theirs. The fast start has got them a little lead in the division, but the Cardinals must keep winning and hope that undefeated Carolina and/or Green Bay falls back to them in the race for the top 2 NFC playoff seeds (I have my doubts the East winner will factor into this.) QB Carson Palmer has played well, but has more importantly, stayed healthy. RB Chris Johnson has had his moments, as had ageless WR Larry Fitzgerald. But knowing they must face Seattle in a SNF road game after the bye is a sobering thought. Cleveland has had some highlights, but they are Cleveland and they are close to the cellar again. But can the get a big win over a true contender to help things? Also, with starter Josh McCown hurt again (shoulder), will Johnny Manziel (if he must play) be able to do some good things and improve his stock, for once?

Who wins? We all know how Arizona has issues traveling East to play, but the team is in first and the key players are healthy and intact. The bye allows Arizona to go for a rare Eastern time zone win. Cleveland really doesn't have the horses to win this game, especially against a dangerous Cardinals defense and special teams.  I am taking the Cardinals to win this one.

Arizona 33 Cleveland 20

San Francisco at St. Louis: Considering the game above, this is a must-win for St. Louis to stay close in the NFC West race, knowing Arizona goes on bye next week and goes to Seattle after such. The Rams have rugged defenders but injuries and poor offense has hurt a lot, but they are not out of either the second wild-card race nor the division. Rookie RB Todd Gurley may well be the real deal and be the next Marshall Faulk for the Rams offense, if QB Nick Foles doesn't screw it up. The Niners are playing for pride right now, after the loss to Seattle last Thursday night. Their offense is bad, and it is not all on QB Colin Kaepernick, but his play is not good and his high salary doesn't help. Still we knew this team was screwed with all of their losses, especially on defense. But this team will not give up..at least not yet.

 Who wins? I don't see a dispirited Niners offense being able to beat these Rams at home, but the Rams offense is shaky too. Remember, the Rams couldn't beat the Steelers at home, even after they lost Big Ben (and set fire to their own turf in pregame (WTF?)). I want to take the Niners, but reality is...defense wins games and the Rams have a running game now to bring it home. I am taking the Rams.

St. Louis 24 San Francisco 20
 
New York Giants at New Orleans: It is not good to see the Saints in such bad shape, but the season is not over yet. However, with two straight wins, the Saints are trying to resurrect themselves. The Giants find themselves in first in the NFC East, but they know they must keep winning to stay there. But to win in New Orleans....no easy thing. This will be interesting.

Who wins? The Giants look much better...but I won' bet against QB Drew Brees and the Saints at home. Ask Dallas about that. I am taking the Saints again. Simple as that.

New Orleans 35 New York Giants 29


Minnesota at Chicago:  The Vikings are trying to make a surprise winning season as they fly under the radar...and the undefeated Packers in their division. The Bears are trying rally after a poor start but we are not holding our breath. Few folks will think much about this game, but the Vikings need this one to stay in shouting distance of the Packers...just in case.

Who wins? The Bears are a prideful team. However, the Vikings have more viable weapons, starting with RB Adrian Peterson and the Bears defense is not what it used to be. I cannot see the Bears stealing this one away. Sorry, but I have to take the Vikings.

Minnesota 27 Chicago 24


Tennessee at Houston: This is not a must-see game. These AFC South teams look horrible, but so does the Colts and the Jaguars. There are a few must-see players, like Houston's DE J.J. Watt and WR DeAndre Hopkins. Teamwise...not so much. Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota is out again. That may be all the difference in this game.

Who wins? The Titans may be a QB away from becoming a contender. That QB may be Mariota, but without him on the field, the Titans are just a team trying to rebuild. The Texans defense is too much for backup QB Zack Mettenberger....period. Houston must win to try to stay close to the Colts. They will this week at home. Texans win.

Houston 24 Tennessee 16

San Diego at Baltimore: San Diego is going east again to face a demoralized Ravens squad. Neither team looks very good right now and the play could be worse. However, the QB matchup of Philip Rivers versus Joe Flacco is a damn good one. This could be a entertaining game. But not a great game except for fantasy football stats...maybe.

Who wins? The Ravens cannot keep blowing close games. They are too good and too experienced for that. The Chargers can win this. They should win this. But...why do I sense the Ravens will steal this one? I don't know. I am taking the Ravens.

Baltimore 33 San Diego 30 (OT)


Seattle at Dallas:  This will be a war. Seattle has a struggling offense, but the defense may be starting to get it back together....at home. But this game is in Dallas, where the Cowboys have lost 4 in a row and is desperate for a win in the crazy NFC East. All-world WR Dez Bryant is expected to be back from his foot injuries suffered in the opener, but they still suffer at QB with Matt Cassel starting his second game with Tony Romo still out. Simply put, the winner helps their playoff chances, the loser is in deep (bleep). And I mean really deep (bleep). Watch this game.

Who wins?  The Cowboys would have the advantage in this case. But no Romo, no Randle, and a Bryant who cannot be 100 percent against a desperate Seahawks team? No way. The Cowboys can take another loss (barely) if the Giants lose (the Redskins and Eagles are on bye this week) and still be in the race. A fifth Seattle loss could all but finish them for a wild-card and maybe in the NFC West too, if Arizona wins. I have to take a more intact and desperate Seattle team here.

Seattle 33 Dallas 24


Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: This is the big game of the year for the Bengals. Win this game and the Bengals will be way ahead in the AFC North and will be just counting games until they clinch the division. Also, with undefeated Denver hosting undefeated Green Bay, the Bengals know that they could be only two undefeated teams left in the AFC at the end of the night (NE crushed Miami on Thursday night). However, Pittsburgh is tough at home and they get back all-world QB Ben Roethlisberger and that could mean everything for the Steelers for the rest of the season. Either way, this is a must win for Pittsburgh.

Who wins? Cincinnati is a good team, but has a lot to prove. Regular season wins mean little for them since they haven't won in the playoffs, and we are a LONG way from that. The Steelers are desperate and they are at home with all their weapons. I am taking Pittsburgh to kick the Bengals from the list of undefeated teams.

Pittsburgh 30 Cincinnati 27 (OT)

New York Jets at Oakland: The Raiders are looking better...but now the next test for these youngsters is here. The Jets are great on defense and the offense is getting better. But, not enough to slow down the still-undefeated Patriots. This game could be a eliminator game for a AFC wild card berth. The winner will be in great position, with a bit of time left. The loser will fall deeper into the pack.
But who thought these two teams would be doing this well at this point in the season? Could BOTH teams be in the playoffs? We will soon see.

Who wins? The Jets are good. The Raiders are getting good. This will be the steal fun game of the week. Most will take the Jets, but I think that the demoralizing loss to the Patriots, plus a long trip west (and maybe a little distraction with the Mets in the World Series) equals trap game. Oakland is dangerous at home and the power they showed in San Diego last week means upset. I am taking Oakland.

Oakland 30 New York Jets 28


Sunday Night Football on NBC: Green Bay at Denver: It is a rare thing for there to be more than 1 or 2 undefeated teams after week 7. It is even rarer for two of those teams to face each other, much less in primetime. So here we are. Who loses here? Denver has had their bye to prepare for this game, while the Packers keep rolling along. This is a perfect SNF game and it will be good.

Who wins? The Broncos have had escape after escape after escape...mostly caused by the defense. Tonight, the BS stops. Green Bay won't make the errors others have, even in Denver. QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will be too much and too disciplined to fall to Denver's luck. Another undefeated team goes down. Packers win.

Green Bay 37 Denver 31

Monday Night Football on ESPN: Indianapolis at Carolina: This is a battle of two former number 1 overall pick (quarterbacks) who have different styles but get results. Both teams lead their divisions, though the AFC South...really sucks...much like the NFC South did last year. The bottom line is that this can be a good game. The Colts need to win to stay ahead of Houston and work toward another division title. The Panthers want to stay undefeated, knowing that they could be the last NFC undefeated team if Green Bay loses to undefeated AFC West leader Denver. This is must see football.

Who wins? The Colts will fight and fight and fight. But this team won't be able to stop the Panthers in Charlotte at night. Too many weapons, too cool and too much QB Cam Newton. Period. Colts QB Andrew Luck is good, but I don't see this miracle. Panthers stay undefeated.

Carolina 29 Indianapolis 24


Bonus picks: Chase for the Sprint Cup Semifinals: Race 7:Eliminator Round: Martinsville:  After the controversy of last week...the Chase comes back to Virginia to the smallest track in NASCAR. Weather issues aside, this is a big race and will be tight. It will be a hard-fought race and if a Chase driver wins, he is automatically in the final at Homestead to race for the championship.

Who wins? I think this will be a battle with Harvick and Gordon and home-state hero Denny Hamlin (out of the Chase) going for the win. Don't count out Joey Logano, but I don't think he wins his fourth straight here. I think his teammate, Brad Keselowski steals this win and most of the 8 Chase drivers will finish high, but one or two may wreck out early.

2015 NFL Picks: Week 7...plus the Chase continues, the World Series and WWE Hell in a Cell!

Last week's picks:                                     Season:


Bonus picks:                                              Season:



Bye Teams:

1. Chicago (2-4): The Bears have made a little rebound after looking horrendous in their first couple of games. Playoff team, this is not. But they can make some noise in the wild-card race, considering there is really only one wild-card spot left as of now, unless Atlanta goes into a free-fall. QB Jay Cutler may still not be the long-term answer, especially with that far-too high salary the Bears gave him a couple of years ago. But let's see how they finish the year out and then go from there. Stranger things have happened. This is a proud franchise and they have a good coach in John Fox. Give him time.

2. Cincinnati (5-0): The Bengals are lucky to be undefeated. The weapons they have offense, the somewhat rugged defense. But the bottom line is...playoffs. Four years of QB Andy Dalton. Four playoff berths. Four losses in the first playoff game....2 of them at home. Long-time coach Marvin Lewis has been in charge for over a decade and has STILL not won a playoff game. Lately, coaches with more than 3 or 4 seasons with either no playoff wins or no playoff appearances at all have been fired. Lewis is the exception. Bottom line, I don't really care if this team goes 16-0 for the regular season. Such means NOTHING unless the team wins in the playoffs. Until the Bengals do that, nothing else really should matter to be honest.


3. Green Bay (5-0): The Packers is arguably the best team in the NFC, if not the entire NFL. Despite losing WR Jordy Nelson for the year in the preseason, the Packers have moved on and kept winning. Of course, having perennial MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers  and friends helps. The Packers are also very experienced at dealing with (a lot of) injuries during the season. Other than losing Rodgers himself, this team seems deep enough and flexible enough to overcome almost anything and still win. With almost all of the powers of the NFC weakened and struggling, Green Bay's path to the Super Bowl is looking really wide, unless the injuries that have hurt other teams swing back toward Green Bay before the end of the season. Let's hope not.

4. Denver (5-0): The Broncos have been so lucky to survive and get six wins. Good defense and a LOT of luck, plus errors by their opponents have helped Denver overcome a shaky offense. Future HOF QB Peyton Manning is looking like a shell of himself, with him not throwing for large amounts of yards and many more interceptions that one expects from him...especially this early in the season. Denver needed this bye to try to get healthier and also get everyone on one page. However, the rest of the schedule is not easy, and Denver must keep winning to secure a top-2 playoff seed, especially with New England and Cincinnati still undefeated and possibly facing fewer threats to a undefeated regular season than Denver. Denver has the advantage of a large division lead and seemingly no one left to challenge them for the AFC West title. However, if Denver loses a couple of games in the next 2-4 weeks after returning from the bye, that lead could be gone and/or that playoff bye could disappear with it. But we will see soon enough.


Thursday Night Football (CBS/NFL Network): Seattle at San Francisco: This is a major game between two heated rivals. We expected the home team to be struggling right now. The surprise is that Seattle is also 2-4, with three road losses and a surprising home loss last week. True, three of those losses were to the last two still-undefeated NFC teams and one of the three remaining AFC undefeated teams. But in all of those losses, except Green Bay, Seattle was winning in the final quarter and choked the game away in regulation or in overtime. Seattle cannot afford another road loss to ANYONE...hell, the Seahawks really cannot afford another loss period. Though there is precedent for a 2-5 team to rally and make the playoffs, it is safe to say that the loser of this game is all-but done in the tight wild-card race, with one-loss Atlanta having a stranglehold on the 5 seed, barring a collapse by Carolina and there being a big mess of teams fighting for the other one. Must win game...period.

Who wins? The Niners are weakened, and still confused. The hosts of Super Bowl 50 would need a miracle to make it to 8 wins, much less a playoff berth. The Seahawks may need the same, but they only have themselves to blame. There is also a recent precedent that recent Super Bowl losers not named Denver or San Francisco have had serious issues (and/or outright did not) make the playoffs the next year, making Seattle's winning the NFC the last two years that more remarkable. To have a chance to get a chance for a run at a third straight Super Bowl, this team must become the Super Bowl team NOW. Starting now, every game has to be treated like a playoff game, if Seattle wants to be in the playoffs at all. But will they or can they? San Francisco has NOTHING to lose and a bit to gain by going for it all to win this game. Seattle is in trouble. And the Niners will (also) take advantage. Niners win.

San Francisco 28 Seattle 25 (OT)

Sunday's Games:

International Series Game 2 (Yahoo! Worldwide streaming): Buffalo at Jacksonville from London:
    Ugh. Another not fun London game. You know the story about the Jaguars. Young team, rebuilding...you know the rest. The Bills have been...scattered. But between all of the injuries and the normal big mouth of coach Rex Ryan, what did you expect? QB Tyrod Taylor has been a pleasant surprise for the Bills....but he is hurt and not playing. Former starter EJ Manuel is the starter for at least this game.  WRs Percy Harvin (hip...again) and Sammy Watkins are also out, though RB LeSean McCoy is supposed to play. The bottom line is that this will not be much more fun of a game than the Thursday game, but watching football with breakfast (on the East Coast) is kind of cool.

Who wins? To have any chance at the playoffs, the Bills must win here  and most of the games the rest of the way. As usual, the Jags have nothing to lose and the experience can help. Somehow, I do think Buffalo pulls this one out. Though not many of us will care or notice. Sorry. Bills win.

Buffalo 28 Jacksonville 24
    
Cleveland at St. Louis: The Rams have fallen to earth after their big upset over Seattle in Week 1. Though now, that win doesn't look so great. This team is still a work in progress, though rookie RB Todd Gurley does look good in limited action so far. The Browns are...the Browns. QB Jake McCown does look like a serviceable QB, but the rest of the team is not so great. Worse yet, backup QB Johnny Manziel is in trouble...again, and may be suspended soon. Cleveland has shown flashes of great offense, but the Rams can play defense, but injuries is starting to take its toll. This will not be a must-see game....unless the Rams "accidentally" light their own field on fire with pyro again.

Who wins? I think the Rams can score a little bit, and so can Cleveland. The difference is that the Rams have a real tough all-around defense and Cleveland does not. I think the Rams steal this one, but not many will watch or care. Sorry guys. I will take St. Louis.

St. Louis 29 Cleveland 20


Houston at Miami: These two franchises have fallen hard. Miami was supposed to be a contender this year and have only been a big disappointment, having already fired their coach after the London loss. Though the Dolphins won last week after their bye, this team just doesn't impress anyone. Houston is in the same boat, but we almost expected that knowing the team has very little at QB and the defense has been not so hot. Both teams were hoping for the playoffs, but...such doesn't look good for either team. Sorry.

Who wins? This is another who-cares? game. Neither teams seems to have much offense to offer. We barely have heard the name (Houston DE) J.J. Watt this year. Not good. This will be a defensive struggle and I will take Houston in a case like this. Texans get by in a ugly game.

Houston 27 Miami 24 (OT)


Atlanta at Tennessee: The Falcons were flying high after a horrible season last year. But after barely escaping Washington, they get shot down last Thursday night in New Orleans who is doing worse. With Carolina still undefeated and still a few weeks away from their bye, Atlanta needs to get back to winning right now. The Titans are a work in progress, but with rookie starter QB Marcus Mariota out with injury suffered last week, former starter Zach Mettenberger must take over. This would seem to be a easy game for Atlanta, except it is a outdoor road game, which makes things harder...or will it?

Who wins? Atlanta has too may weapons for Tennessee to stop for 60 minutes. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan should take care of that. But anything less than a blowout win for the Falcons is a big problem. Still, a win is a win and Atlanta needs every win they can get. Falcons win.

Atlanta 30  Tennessee 20


New Orleans at Indianapolis: This will be a more fun game, but the struggles of both teams does lessen the appeal. The Colts have struggled both in games with starter Andrew Luck and with him out with injury. The same has occurred with the Saints and future HOF QB Drew Brees, but they have fewer wins. Expect a lot of passes to be thrown, though the running game won't be totally bad, especially with the Colts having veteran RB Frank Gore on their side. This could be a high scoring affair.

Who wins? If the Saints had all of the offensive weapons they had in previous seasons now, this is a reasonable upset to call. But the Saints do not. That, and the Colts having something of a running game now lets me say the home team can get this one, who need this to keep ahead in the AFC South, though, really, who in this division is going to take this division away? Right. Colts win again.

Indianapolis 36 New Orleans 34


Pittsburgh at Kansas City: The Chiefs has seen their season become a nightmare with losses and injuries galore. Unfortunately, improvement doesn't seem to be on the horizon...or is it? The Steelers are weathering the loss of their starting QB and has found ways to win. Having their offensive weapons has helped, but the loss of starting C Maurice Pouncey has not helped. But the Steelers, like Green Bay, are masters at adapting to adversity, and now is no different. This could be a ugly game.

Who wins? The Chiefs will not give up on the season. Nor will Pittsburgh. Truth be told, the Steelers are just plain better, and only a horrendous team performance will give the Chiefs a chance to win, and I don't think they can take advantage anyway. Simple call. Steelers win again. But I do think the Royals will do well in the World Series...that is something.

Pittsburgh 34 Kansas City 24


Minnesota at Detroit: Detroit is happy to finally get a win and not have to think about 0-16 (again). Now they can move on. Can they win two in a row over the surprising Vikings? Vikings RB Adrian Peterson was sick this week, but he is playing. Can Detroit steal two in a row...and in division, no less, while undefeated Green Bay rests and Chicago takes their bye and stew over losing to the Lions?

Who wins? Minnesota has talent, but so does Detroit. The greater experience of the Lions will make the difference here. I am taking Detroit to get another upset. Lions win.

Detroit 33 Minnesota 28

Dallas at New York Giants: This is another must win game in the NFC East. The hurting Cowboys return from their bye to face the Giants for the second time. You know what happened the first time. A win here will win the season series which may mean everything at the end of the year. The Giants know this and feel the same. No Victor Cruz for the Giants no Romo nor Bryant for Dallas. Let the war begin.

Who wins? While new Dallas starter QB Matt Cassel is a veteran, he has not been that great since he left New England years ago. While he will be a improvement over Weedeen, he is still no Romo. And playing without Bryant will doom the Dallas offense. These Giants have grown since the debacles of weeks 1 and 2. They won't blow this game. Giants win.

New York Giants 30 Dallas 27 (OT)

New York Jets at New England: Game of the week. You know the players and these are not the old Jets. These Jets are confident and fearless...like their new coach. New England cannot take this game lightly, and they won't. This game is for first place in the AFC East. Let the war begin.

Who wins? Too close to call. It will come down to turnovers and who has the ball last. Brady and friends should be able to win at home, but this is no sure thing. I see this being a pick'em game. I am taking the Jets for the Patriots have trouble on their offensive line and these Jets are due. Jets win in the second biggest upset of the year (so far).

New York Jets 39 New England 37


Tampa Bay at Washington: This is another ho-hum game, but this game matters. The Redskins are still in the NFC East race, as strange as it sounds. If they win....what if? The other teams in this division are shaky or tore up. As of now, we have no idea who will win this division, hence, every game matters for these four teams. For Tampa, just trying to grow and learn and steal a few games. Could WR Mike Evans go nuts on the Redskins (again) in his second career game against them? I doubt it. Keep a eye on this game.

Who wins? Tampa has weapons to do the upset, but I have some faith that the Redskins will get it done with some of their injured players back in their final game before their bye next week. To stay in this race, Washington must win and they will. Washington wins.

Washington 29 Tampa Bay 21


Oakland at San Diego: This is a big game than most will see...only because there are so few late games this week. Hey, I didn't write the schedule. The Raiders return from their bye knowing that they can start to build some momentum if they win. Same for the Chargers who need a win after some tough losses, all while undefeated Denver rests. The winner is alone in second in the AFC West. The young Raiders can make a big step forward or the Chargers can take another big step back if they lose.

Who wins? The Chargers are tough at home, but these Raiders have been surprising folk all year. This team is due for a division win and this is the time to get one. Raiders get that win and move to 3-3.

Oakland 31 San Diego 28 (OT)


Sunday Night Football (NBC): Philadelphia at Carolina:  The Panthers are still undefeated and are moving along. The Eagles have been a disappointment but they are still dangerous. Bottom line, the Eagles must win to stay close in the NFC East race, figuring they have little chance at a wild-card berth as of now. Carolina is continuing to shock everyone, as is the NFC South after last year's debacle. But Carolina needs to keep winning to stay in the race for a high playoff seed, assuming the two-time defending division champs win the division again. The Eagles....are just inconsistent.

Who wins? The inconsistent nature of the Eagles, plus their injuries has left them less than the so-called power team they claim to be. Remember their finish last year. Carolina knows how to close games. The Eagles...not so much. I think the Panthers find a way to win at home and survive....again. Panthers win.

Carolina 29 Philadelphia 24

Monday Night Football (ESPN): Baltimore at Arizona: The Ravens are desperate for a win. Arizona is still in first in the NFC West, but they need to win for the Seahawks are starting to rally. Can the Cardinals keep it going or will the decline start here?


Who wins? I think the Cardinals will be able to get it done tonight. The Ravens will not give up but let's be real. The Ravens would need to win out and get help to make the playoffs. I seriously doubt that will happen. Cardinals win again.

Arizona 30 Baltimore 20

Bonus Picks:

1. MLB: World Series (Fox) Best of 7: (American League has home field per All-Star game result):
New York Mets (NL Champion) vs Kansas City (AL Champion):





2. NASCAR: (NBCSN):Chase for the Sprint Cup Race Six: Contender Round Race 3: Talledega: This race is the ultimate wild-card race, in or outside of the Chase. This time, the stakes are much higher. One race, 7 spots, 11 drivers. Only Joey Logano (with two wins) is through to the Eliminator Round (Semifinals). For the drivers in 2nd-4th (Hamlin, Kurt Busch and Edwards), a top 5 finish will all but get through, unless one of them wins. For everwyone else behind them, a win would be VERY preferable. For the bottom four, especially fan favorite Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Matt Kenseth, a win is the only way to advance. Period. Basically, you will see desperation by these 11 drivers that you will not see before Phoenix in three weeks (the elimination race for the Final Race), much less the Championship Finale at Miami-Homestead. The problem is...this is Talledega. Bottom line, there is as much chance that all 12 Chase drivers finish in the top 12...or the bottom 12. Forget about finishing the race at all. This is the track where the probability of "the big wreck(s)" is the highest on the circuit. This will be the most exciting race of the Chase...other than Phoenix or Homestead.

Who Advances?
1. Logano (already clinched)
2-8. Hamlin, Edwards, Kurt Busch, Gordon, Harvick, Keselowski and Kyle Busch (by 3 points or less).

Who is Out (unless he wins the race):
Kenseth: Keselowski pulled off a miracle win here last year to advance to the next round. Harvick won both Phoenix and Homestead to both advance, and then win the Championship. As good as the former champ Kenseth is, he is no Harvick nor Keselowski and he is too far back in points to get in that way. Sorry.

Earnhardt, Jr. See the above. Junior can win the race, but knowing his past history here in past Chases and the unpredictable nature of this race, I only think he can win this race from the pole AND he drives the perfect race...which won't happen here. Luck is needed here.

Newman: He hasn't won a Sprint Cup race in over two years. He came within one race of winning the championship last year WITHOUT A WIN. Unless most of the other Chase drivers wreck early, Newman must win to advance. Don't see that happening.

Truex, Jr.: He got by in the last round, but he is 8th this time with only a six point lead over Kyle Busch in 9th and 8 over Newman in 10th. I don't see him being able to out-drive them both to keep this spot. Remember what I said about Kyle Busch in the last round. Right now, with one race and everything on the line, I am taking Busch every time. No offense.


3. WWE: (WWE Network): Hell in a Cell PPV: Sunday night 7pm

During Kickoff Show: Six Man Tag Team Match: King Barrett, Mr. Money in the Bank Sheamus and Rusev vs. Dolph Ziggler, Cesaro and Neville: Few really care about this match, but it will be fun to kill time. Ziggler's team wins this match due to outside interference, likely Summer Rae and/or a returning Lana. I may watch this match...maybe not.

Demon Kane vs. Seth Rollins for Rollins' WWE World Heavyweight Championship: If Kane loses, Corporate Kane loses his job. Unfortunately, this is not a no-DQ match. Rollins knows this and will get himself disqualified to keep the belt and get Corporate Kane fired. The problem is, such will allow Demon Kane to stay in the title hunt, if The Authority allows it. It is about time for Rollins to lose that belt, but it won't be to Kane. That is not best for business. Rollins retains...again.
 
Nikki Bella vs Charlotte for Charlotte's Divas Championship: Bella may want to prove her loss to Charlotte at Night of Champions is a fluke, but she won't. Bella is a hotter Diva, based on looks (despite her artificial enhancements). Charlotte is attractive, but is more athletic and is tougher and has the genes of arguably the greatest (and one of the most decorated) champions ever. Lastly, she has a finisher that Bella cannot reverse without help. Charlotte retains.


The Dudley Boyz vs. The New Day for The New Day's WWE World Tag Team Championships: Cheating to keep the gold is a time-honored tradition. The New Day is good, but the Dudleys have experience on their side, knowing this is likely their last shot at the titles. Their legacy is intact, either way. They find a way to pull this off. Dudleys win and become the new champs for a 10th time.


Ryback vs. Kevin Owens for Owens' Intercontinental Championship: Ryback is tough, but so is Owens. I don't think Ryback can out-intimidate Owens, and he cannot take more than one Pop-up Powerbomb. Plus, Owens won't mind a disqualification to keep his gold, even if he feels the pain afterwards. That is what will happen. Owens retains.


US Title Open Challenge: Unknown challenger vs. John Cena for Cena's United States Championship: Cena is rumored to be about to take time off to go do a TV show or something like that. He can't do that and stay champ. He also won't be allowed to go for a record-tying 16th World title next year if he still holds the US title. Whomever the opponent is, upset happens. Cena loses and gets his "vacation". Too bad Nikki won't be doing so with him, barring a unplanned Paige beatdown or worse in her title match.    Unknown challenger upsets The Champ.


Roman Reigns vs Bray Wyatt (Hell in a Cell Match): This will be a war. If Reigns loses, forget about getting back in the World title hunt. These two will tear each other apart. I have faith that Reigns finds a way to win the match. But the Wyatt Family will hurt Reigns badly after the match.

Roman Reigns wins.

Brock Lesnar vs. The Undertaker (Hell in a Cell Match): This is will be a grisly match. You know the players. It will be bloody and a war. I want Undertaker to win this thing and he might. But I am also thinking that this will be the last official match for Undertaker for Lesnar will injure Undertaker so much that Undertaker will not be physically able to wrestle anyone at Wrestlemania 32 in Dallas. Remember, Undertaker is 50 years old and this the most dangerous match in WWE that doesn't involve more than two wrestlers (Elimination Chamber involves 6 wrestlers in a similar structure).
   So my prediction is that: Undertaker will win...somehow. Win or lose, he will not walk out of this match on his own. This will be  his last official match. But Lesnar will take a major beating too. Undertaker will be inducted into the WWE Hall of Fame next April and officially retire before Wrestlemania 32. Undertaker deserves to be the second active wrestler to be inducted in the WWE Hall of Fame (Ric Flair is the first and so far, only one to do that). But this match will prevent that and that will anger me almost as much as the fact that Lesnar (was allowed to) end The Undertaker's undefeated streak at Wrestlemania.

The Undertaker wins by submission (Lesnar unable to continue due to being knocked out).

2015 NFL Picks Week 6...plus the Chase continues and the MLB League Championship series!

NFL Picks Week 6 and more!

Fantasy football owners! It is Week 3 of the Bye Weeks! The season starts to get serious from here! Dallas, Oakland and others are on bye! And all four teams have the same record...how weird and unlikely is that! Plan accordingly now!  Reminder:  Another London game is next Sunday morning!  Be ready!

Last week: 7-7....decent. Season: 40-35...good, not great.



Bonus picks:             Season:




Bye Teams:

1. Tampa Bay (2-3): Is it surprising Tampa is 2-3? Not totally. But this team has no expectations, nor does this division after last year's debacle. Tampa is trying to build a team around QB Jameis Winston and that will take time. This team might be good in 2-3 years, but don't get it twisted about 2015. If this team gets more than 5 wins, lucky. Every win (and loss) is a education for these guys that could pay dividends later.

2. St. Louis (2-3): After a great upset of the now-mortal Seahawks at home on Opening Day the Rams have been shaky. The offense is worse off, and maybe did get the bad end of the QB trade with the Eagles from a player standpoint, but that gap is small and getting smaller. There are still holes to fill and learning to be done. But....this team has some D...and they have a playmaker in Tavon Austin and now they have a RB in Todd Gurley if they can stay healthy for full seasons and not parts of one. Whether coach Jeff Fisher will be around to see the final product remains to be seen. Maybe 2016 is the year they come back? Let's hope the home field thing is settled by next year, for that uncertainty can not help..nor does accidental fires on the field before home games.


3. Dallas (2-3): This is the Dallas I was expecting. Shaky, hurt and rudderless. Was Dallas wrong in resigning WR Dez Bryant and letting RB DeMarco Murray leave (to the Eagles)? No. The problem was the Cowboys has no real good backups at QB, RB, or WR. Now, with Bryant and QB Tony Romo also out and young RB Joseph Randle (knee) gone for the year too, this team is in trouble. No matter who the QB is, I am not convinced the Cowboys can stay close long enough to get Romo (and/or Bryant) back. The defense is better, but without a balanced offense to run clock and keep these guys fresh (and hopefully healthy), wins will not come and they won't get that many more miracle wins due to brain freezes, like they did in Week 1. Maybe they should have traded for Robert Griffin III when they had the chance. Other than next year's cap, they would not be any worse off.

4. Oakland (2-3): This young team is getting better. No one, other than me, expected this team to be competitive in most of their games and be a few errors short of 4-1. With Denver shaky as they get ready for their bye next week and the Chargers and Chiefs in trouble, could the young Raiders shock a few more teams? Yes, they can. (Reported today) The loss of DE Justin Tuck (pectoral) for the year hurts, but he may not have been back in 2016 anyway. Now the young defenders that remain will have to learn faster and do more to help the offense win. 5-6 wins is still a realistic goal. Mark my words, though. This team can and will be at the top of the AFC 3 years from now, IF NOT SOONER. Watch them play and you will see why.

Thursday Night Football (CBS/NFL Network): Atlanta at New Orleans: This is a marquee game for TNF, though the records don't show it this time. The Saints are in must-win mode starting tonight. They are 1-4 and facing the undefeated Falcons. Lose this game and it is season over. The Falcons are 5-0, but it is a shaky 5-0. No real dominant performances so far. Had to rally in the first 3 games to win. Barely beat a undermanned and less talented Redskins team AT HOME last week. Time for the Falcons to show what they can do and convincingly beat a inferior opponent. But can they? in New Orleans of all places? This is a must watch game.

Who wins? Atlanta has the weapons to win and the Saints are not as powerful now as in recent years. But there is that...something about QB Drew Brees, the Saints playing in the Superdome in prime time in recent years that makes you pause. Atlanta is not a great 5-0 team, New Orleans is better than 1-4 (but not that much better). The Saints are desperate for a win, so I will take the Saints. But if they lose, the race for the top overall pick begins against Detroit.

New Orleans 28 Atlanta 24

Sunday's games:

 Arizona at Pittsburgh: This will be a tight game and a great test for the Cardinals who are in position to be a power in the NFC playoffs this year. Two games clear and the rest of the division shaky, these Cardinals can get that top playoff seed they blew last year due to the loss of QB Carson Palmer to injury. He is playing well and staying healthy. The same cannot be said for the Steelers with their starter out..for now. He may be back in 2-3 weeks, with enough time to make noise. But they can still play with QB Michael Vick as he proved on MNF. Of course, he has weapons, and with WR Martavious Bryant back (knee/suspension), he has the deep threat to make this offense deadly again before Big Ben returns. Can the strong and opportunistic Arizona defense defuse Vick's (older but still) special talents and steal a rare road outdoor win?

 Who wins? Arizona has built a dangerous team and took advantage of a weakened start to their schedule. It starts getting harder now. This would be a signature win if they could pull this out, but I know that Pittsburgh is super tough at home, even with Vick at QB. Forget about the kicking game unless it is a chip shot at Heinz Field. Even on a short week, I have to take Pittsburgh here. Sorry.

Pittsburgh 27 Arizona 24 (OT)

Kansas City at Minnesota: The battered Chiefs go north to face the now-dangerous Vikings. This team has to be demoralized, with the way they lost to Denver, the poor record that has them last in the AFC West, and now their best player, RB Jamaal Charles (knee) is done for the year. If anyone can understand how that feels, it is the Vikings, having been there, done that with all-world RB Adrian Peterson. After a slow start, he is getting better and better and QB Teddy Bridgewater has game too. This is likely to be a blowout, barring horrible injuries hitting the Vikings (don't want to see that again).

Who wins? The Chiefs is a proud franchise and they will not lay down to anyone. But without their best runner/player on offense, the defense alone is not enough to carry this team, nor is their QB, Alex Smith. The Vikings should feast on this one. If they don't (like Atlanta against Washington last week), upset could happen and that won't be good for the guys in purple. Peterson won't let that happen. Vikings win.

Minnesota 27 Kansas City 17


Cincinnati at Buffalo: The undefeated Bengals go east to face Rex Ryan's Bills. The Bills can play, but with all their injuries to their QB Tyrod Taylor and their running backs AND wide receivers, how can the offense keep up with the Bengals who can score a ton at times? Ryan may be a defensive mastermind with a very good defense to slow down the Bengals and QB Andy Dalton, but Cincinnati is pretty good. This will be hard hitting, and the Bills need a win to stay in a muddied wild card race, never mind the AFC East behind undefeated New England, who already beat the Bills earlier. Good luck with that.

Who wins? Buffalo is tough at home, but that defense cannot totally shut down all of the Bengals' weapons. Worse yet, I don't think Buffalo's offense could keep up in a high-scoring game anyway, even if they had everyone healthy. Barring a horrendous game from Dalton, this should be a solid win for the Bengals, so I am going with that.

Cincinnati 30 Buffalo 20


Chicago at Detroit: Ugh. The Lions look a lot like the Chiefs, but at least KC has a win already. Chicago, after looking so bad early, has two wins in a row and this should be a easier test than the last two. The Lions are proud but they seem rudderless. The offense is okay but can't get it done even with some great players on board, and the defense...well, it isn't that great. Remember their issues with former Lion N. Suh, and losing him in free agency (to Miami) and replacing him with Haloti Ngata (from Baltimore) hasn't made much difference....much like his season in Miami so far. This game will be ugly, but who would have thought the Bears would be favored?

Who wins? Few care, but a Bears win does make them a unlikely contender in the NFC wild-card race. Remember, there are a lot of 2 win teams and only one wild-card spot left, held by undefeated Carolina for now. Detroit wants to win to get that talk about a second 0-16 season shut down before it starts...but I just don't see it happening this week. Sorry. I have to take the Bears.

Chicago 23 Detroit 21
 
Denver at Cleveland: The Broncos keep escaping. They are still undefeated. But their luck has to run out. This is their final game before the Broncos' bye. The Browns have some weapons and they are not completely useless. After barely escaping Oakland last week, Cleveland may be the team that can get it done. Just keep Manziel (who was in trouble again this week off the field) off the field. Cleveland QB Josh McCown maybe is the right (short term) choice for Cleveland after all. Too bad little bro got the nice commercial.

Who wins? Denver can't escape every week and Manning is looking worse and worse when he is not in a two minute drill. I am taking Cleveland because Denver is NOT going 16-0. Period. (Raiders are off this week, so do not go there!)

Cleveland 28 Denver 24

Houston at Jacksonville: This is mostly a elimination game here. With the Colts starting to roll a little, even with a possible loss against the Patriots later, the loser of this game may well be all but done in the AFC South race, and perhaps the AFC wild-card race too. The Texans are a disappointment so far, but not a total surprise when you are playing revolving quarterbacks and neither have done that much. The defense, even with DE J.J. Watt and friends, can only do so much. Jacksonville is starting to get better, but they have a long way to go. But a win over the Texans helps morale. More wins is good.

Who wins? I think the Texans are just a mess on offense. Until they get a strong QB to solidify things, and fewer injuries, this is what you get. Hence, the Jaguars can go get another upset win. I am taking the home team here.

Jacksonville 24 Houston 21 (OT)


Miami at Tennessee: Miami is a big mess. They fired their coach and defensive coordinator after their loss to the Jets in London on their bye week. They have weapons and they have some defensive talent. But how long will it take to get it together? I am not sure it can happen this year. I am not sure what coach will want to come in deal with this. That will hurt the product on the field. Tennessee is building a squad. They, like Jacksonville, may have their QB for the next decade. The rest....not so much yet. This will not be a must-see game. No offense.

Who wins? Neither team looks great. But the Titans look better with QB Marcus Mariota, the game is in Nashville, and (I didn't think I would have to say this) the Titans look more stable than Miami right now. Bummer. I am taking the home team again. Miami couldn't beat the Jaguars on the road. The Titans are better than the Jaguars...barely. Easy choice.

Tennessee 30 Miami 24


Carolina at Seattle: This is a must-see game. The undefeated Panthers come west after their bye to face the reeling Seahawks. I know the guys in green has beaten the Panthers the last two years, one at home, one (2 years ago on Opening Day) in Carolina, but both games were close and very low scoring. The Panthers are better in some ways than last year, but are they as overrated as the (formerly undefeated) Falcons? The Seahawks are struggling across the board. Is the 12th man enough to get a needed home win this time?

Who wins? The Seahawks are a different team at home, and this year the record shows it. Unfortunately, a home loss may screw Seattle's playoff hopes, especially if they can't start winning on the road (3 road losses in a row). The Panthers are a shaky undefeated team, but they play Seattle really tough and they are due. I am taking the Panthers. Take the over on points, though. I have a feeling.

Carolina 24 Seattle 21 (OT)


San Diego at Green Bay: The Chargers go north after the heart-breaking loss to the Steelers on MNF. There is no shame in losing a game like that...by mere inches. And the rookie game official on the goal line made the right call. Replay confirmed it. Anyway, even without that, the Chargers will have a hard time upsetting the undefeated Packers at Lambeau Field. But the air display between the two QBs who I think both will be in the Hall of Fame one day, will be fun. Watch this game.

Who wins? West coast team going east and north on an short week to play a top team who rarely loses at home....and who is undefeated. Right. You do the math. I am taking the (all-but) sure thing and take Green Bay.

Green Bay 34 San Diego 24


Baltimore at San Francisco: This will not be must-see TV. The winner of this game gets to stay around in the playoff race for another week. The loser is all-but done. This is a rematch of Super Bowl 48 and it will be interesting, but a lot of players have changed. Too bad this can't be Harbaugh Bowl II. Oh well.

Who wins? There is little to be said about this game. I don't have much to add. I think the QBs will play well, but with all the injuries and (expected) errors in the game. This will be ugly. I am taking the home team, just to be nice. Sorry, Baltimore. Remember, you did get the big trophy last time..lol.

San Francisco 29 Baltimore 27

Washington at New York Jets: The Jets look good under first year coach Todd Bowles. They should be able to beat a less talented and injury-ravaged Redskins squad who does look more stable with QB Kirk Cousins. But these guys have hung in games all year, and took then-undefeated Atlanta to OT last week in Atlanta with a similar number of injuries. Could there be a upset?

Who wins? Seriously, the Jets can't blow this game, can they? Yes they can, if the Redskins play a similar game as they did last week, only without the late turnovers. Good luck with that. But I need a few upsets. This is a good possibility....but I have to take the Jets. Sorry.

New York Jets 27 Washington 24

Sunday Night Football (NBC): New England at Indianapolis: This is the game of the week. All the talk is about revenge and other stuff. You know the story. Here is the bottom line. Undefeated New England travels to face the Colts, who are not only shaky, has a hurting starting QB in Andrew Luck, but has also lost their last few games to these Patriots by large numbers, including last year's AFC title game. Not good.

Who wins?  The Colts cannot worry about revenge. They need to win. Unfortunately, barring major injuries, I don't see how the Colts win the game, much less get "revenge". Truth be told, if the Colts want revenge...beat these Patriots in the playoffs....if they both get there. For tonight, the Pats have too much...unless Luck (returns and) has the game of his life. And WR T.Y Hilton does the same. And....you get the point. I would love to see the Patriots lose. I just don't see it happening this week.
New England wins again.

New England 40 Indianapolis 24

Monday Night Football (ESPN): New York Giants at Philadelphia: This will be a interesting game. The Giants are in first in the NFC East, which is where the Eagles were supposed to be. But everyone is one game out of first, and Dallas is on bye, while still several weeks away from getting QB Tony Romo and maybe WR Dez Bryant back. Will Giants WR Victor Cruz ever play this year? Not looking good at this point. This will be a ugly game and we will see if the Giants are really rolling or was it done with smoke and mirrors and the Eagles are back in this race. Either way...Dallas is worried, for they get these teams soon.

Who wins? The Eagles blasted the weakened Saints at home last week...who went home and took out the undefeated Falcons, who played like a 1 win team. The Giants will be tougher than that. I am not convinced of anything involving either team, but I am liking the Eagles a bit less right now. I am taking the Giants....and hope they don't blow another game.

New York Giants 29 Philadelphia 28



Bonus Picks: MLB Postseason:

American League Championship Series: Toronto at Kansas City (top seed): The Blue Jays did a nice job rebounding after letting Texas punk them out at home in Games 1 and 2 of the Division Series. Unfortunately, the defending AL champs are another matter. True, KC did have to also go a full 5 games to eliminate the surprising Astros...but they did. Now, Toronto has to go 7 games against these guys. Truth be told, even if Toronto had home-field advantage, I don't think it would matter. KC has experience, belief and rabid fans...and they have home field. If the Blue Jays get this to 6 games, let alone 7, I will be surprised. The 2-3-2 format (Blue Jays are home for games 3-5) is the only thing that may allow that. KC is not a surprise this year, but the results are the same....even if KC is not sweeping AL teams this time. KC wins.

Royals in 5 games.


National League Championship Series: Chicago Cubs (wild card winner) vs. New York Mets:
Well, the loveable losers are still on fire! The Cubs have eliminated the top NL seed and second playoff team from the NL Central to get to the League Championship series. Unfortunately for them,  despite having a better record than their opponent, because the Cubs are the wildcard...no home-field advantage for them. That may not matter. However, it was cool to see the Cubs finally clinch a post-season series at home for the first time in (a very LONG) franchise history. Now, back to business. The Mets escape LA with a Game 5 win over the Dodgers and the possible NL Cy Young winner Zack Grienke. The Mets getting home field in this series means everything. True, the Cubs swept the 7 game season series. But that was then, this is now. This series will be a war and it will be cold. For the Cubs to win this series, they will need to sweep at home, I think. I am not sure they will be able to win in New York...until a potential Game 7. Two underdog teams going for the big prize. I am taking the bigger one here and finally end that long drought and get them to the World Series.

Chicago Cubs win in 7 games (2 extra-innings games).

NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup: Race Five: Contender Round Race Two: Kansas: This race becomes (likely) the season for most of the remaining Chase drivers. With Talledega being the elimination race next week, and the wild-card track that it is (being the fastest and arguably the most dangerous track in NASCAR), the Chase drivers know they (in most cases) must win this race to assure moving on to the next round. Joey Logano won last week's rain-delayed race at Charlotte and punched his ticket to the final 8 (in essence the semifinal round of 3 races). For the other 11 drivers, especially those in the bottom 4 ( Newman, Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt, Jr and Kenseth), it is basically win or almost expect to be out after Talledega. I am not picking that race yet, but the drivers know that due to speeds and (expected) big wrecks, any driver in the race could win. At Martinsville, it is not that dissimilar, except the track (and the top speeds) are a LOT smaller. 39 points separate second in the standings (Harvick) and 12th (Kenseth). One wreck and/or equipment failure (even a small, cheap part) could end your day and the Chase for you (ask Jimmie Johnson about that). Watch this race closely while you watch football. Then tape and/or watch Talledega next week. It will be wilder than at least a third of the football games next week. Believe that.

Who wins? You have to bet on Harvick. He knows that even a top-5 finish will not clinch him a spot in the Eliminator Round, unless other Chase drivers, especially the bottom four, all wreck and/or finish worse than 35th. Unlikely but not impossible. Most of the Chase drivers will be in the top 20, but....at least one of the bottom 4 will bottom out and need a miracle win at Talladega. One of the others in the bottom will finish high and improve his chances of advancing.

2015 NFL Picks Week 5: Baseball wildcard and Division series picks and more!

 NFL Picks: Week Five

 Fantasy football owners: Week two of bye weeks with four teams on bye this week. Please plan accordingly with your rosters!

Last Week's Picks: 10-5...I am getting good at this! Season: 33-28....much nice to be on the nice side of .500!!

Bonus picks: 12-2   Total: 19-7

I did good on picks for the second week in a row. Let's hope things continue to progress on that score. I know I picked Harvick to win at Dover....but I didn't think he would actually do it! Well, that is racing for you. Things will get more interesting as the NASCAR playoffs continue and the baseball postseason begins. Good luck with your picks!


Bye teams:

1. Carolina (4-0): Carolina has survived the loss of their best WR well...so far. You may dismiss this start, but you can't complain about the results. Unfortunately, all this got the Panthers is a tie for first in the NFC South with Atlanta. With the Falcons' bye still 4 weeks away and the first of the two meetings between these two not until late in the season, this is a watching game from a distance. Both teams could be in the playoffs. Only one can have a top 4 seed. This team could get better as we go. We will see. As long as QB Cam Newton is healthy and upright (that is a big IF), this team will be dangerous. We will see.



2. Minnesota (2-2): The Vikings are hanging in there so far. With the resurgence of RB Adrian Peterson and the dangerous young QB Teddy Bridgewater, these Vikings can be a darkhorse in the NFC wild-card race. The question remains is how well can these guys do against the best teams in the league, especially undefeated Green Bay? With Detroit already all but out of the race and Chicago behind them, the Vikings are looking up only to the Packers. What if? Bottom line, nothing to lose, everything to gain this year. Then, the new Vikings stadium opens next year and the positive energy that goes with it. It will be interesting to see what this young squad to do with little pressure on them, compared to Green Bay, Seattle and others.

3. New York Jets (2-2): The Jets are looking good at times, and not so much at others. Like Minnesota, expectations have to be called low, especially with new coach Todd Bowles coming in. But there are some weapons here on both sides of the ball. All of the hype has gone to the other AFC East teams, and that is good for these Jets. The win over Miami in London is good, and such didn't count on the home schedule since it was a road game. Could these Jets shock the NFL? Maybe. If they can upset the Patriots and Bills, especially on the road, there are possibilities for a wild-card....maybe more. But you have to win with the schedule you have. These Jets, like a few other AFC teams may have a shot to shock a lot of teams this year.

4. Miami (1-3):  Not good. Miami had a lot of hype with their free-agent signings and looking like they were ready to make a playoff splash. But the coaching staff knew they were on the hot seat. After a shaky (maybe lucky) win in the opener on the road, the Dolphins have plain sucked. losing to Jacksonville (?) and the Jets in London. After the latter, the owner said, enough and fired coach Joe Philbin (and then the defensive coordinator on Thursday).  The Dolphins went from playoff dark-horse to dumpster fire in a matter of weeks! Barring a miracle rally, this team may have to go back to square one after this year. But...if so, getting another high draft pick could be helpful...maybe. Good luck with that.

American League Wildcard (1 game winner takes all to face KC in the ALCS!):
Houston at New York Yankees:  Both teams are limping into this game with less than stellar finishes. Both teams were leading their divisions until other teams caught them and passed them late in the season. The Yankees are back in the postseason after a 2 year absence and have a good amount of playoff experience, led by third baseman Alex Rodriguez. The team may be slightly distracted by the sudden absence of P C.C. Sabathia (voluntary alcohol rehab), who chose to leave the team on the eve of this playoff. He did what was best for him to get well and he should be commended for that, even if the team could have used him if they advance. Houston was not supposed to be a playoff team at all. Their shocking fast start surprised all of baseball since they have been really bad the last few years in addition to their recent transfer from the National to the American League for realignment (so that each league has 15 teams,) Though they faded down the stretch allowing the Texas Rangers to (barely) win the division and the Angels to nearly steal the wildcard spot away, they rallied to get to this game. Obviously far less experience, but a lot of youth, confidence and heart just to get here at all.

Who wins? The Yankees' experience and playing at home should be enough to win a 1 game playoff, but these Astros have bucked a lot of (recent) trends just to get here, so what is one more? The mystique of the Bronx Bombers has dulled considerably in recent years for various reasons, but this is a good team, as is Houston, all of a sudden. Worst to playoffs is rare in American pro sports, especially baseball, but here we are. While the MLB playoffs may well not be the same without the Yankees in it, it is nice to see some new blood, and see them do well. I am taking the Astros in a upset.

Houston 8 New York Yankees 7 (10)

National League Wildcard (1 game winner takes all to face St. Louis in the NLCS!):
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh:  I spoke of the surprise rise of the Astros to make the AL wildcard tonight. Then we have the Chicago Cubs. The ultimate of hard luck teams. This team has not won a World Series in over a century, and rarely has seen a playoff game in that same time. They, like Houston, was not expected to be a threat this year. But they also started fast and withstood the trials of summer to get here. Same for the Pirates, though they have been in the playoffs more recently, If either or both were in a different division, they may well have not been in this game at all. They would more likely be hosting a Division series. To their chagrin, they are in the same division as the powerhouse St. Louis Cardinals, who will host the winner of this game starting Friday or Saturday. That means a strong team, possibly stronger than either East champ New York Mets or the three time defending West champ Dodgers will be done after Wednesday night. Unfortunate. Both the Cubs and Pirates have young and established stars and a strong roster and they obviously know each other well. This will be a great game. Too bad this is a elimination game and not a Division or a Championship series matchup. Maybe next year.

Who wins? Like the Yankees, the Pirates have the home-field and the playoff experience over the Cubs. However, like in the other series, the youth and confidence of the underdog road team may be too much to stop in a one game win-or-go-home situation. These teams know each other so well, so this will be a war. The Cardinals will NOT have a easy time with the winner of this game, even with home field, since that team will be very familiar with St. Louis, too. While I am cool with the Pirates, a lot of folks outside of Chicago would love to see the Cubs try to end their long curse...or at least make a step toward that. I am taking Chicago.

Chicago 5 Pittsburgh 4


Thursday Night Football (CBS/NFL Network): Indianapolis at Houston: This will be a crazy affair. Houston is at home and has their workhorse RB Arian Foster back, which is good. The problem is that their instability at QB has weakened the already-shaky offense to make them all-but one-dimensional. The Colts, however, are no better. While starting QB Andrew Luck (throwing shoulder) is projected (per Thursday morning update) to sit again after missing Sunday's home win, backup QB Matthew Hasselbeck (illness) is iffy, but plans to play. The Colts may have no choice but to dress their third QB (they picked up Josh Johnson last week), just to cover themselves. Hence, their offense is shaky too. The Colts defense has been okay, but that is all. Houston's defense has not been great, but you figure they are rather tired from having to be out there a lot in the first four games to keep them in games. This is a tough call to make. Don't expect much scoring here unless it is due to turnovers, pick-sixes and special teams.

Who wins? If Houston's vaunted defense was at full roar, it would be a easier call. But they are not, but the Colts having QB issues of their own and perhaps even less of a running game than Houston, where will scoring come from? Bottom line, the Colts seem to find a way in division games (or the opponent gives the game away, like the Jaguars kicker did last week!). If Foster was doing really well now, I would take the Texans, but Foster is just getting back. Bottom line, Luck at 50-75 percent or in this case, a sick Hasselbeck at 80 percent (even at his advanced football age) is still better than what Houston has at QB right now....and they have a better (also older) RB..and better WRs....you get the point. I have to take the Colts, but not by much.

Indianapolis 23 Houston 20 (OT)

Sunday's Games:

Chicago at Kansas City: The Bears got a big win last week, helped by the return of QB Jay Cutler, but now they go on the road to Kansas City who is not doing well, especially with the way the lost to Denver earlier. Bears WR Alshon Jeffrey is possibly out again, but Cutler did well enough with the other receivers, and he still has TE Marcellus Bennett and RB Matt Forte with him. The Chiefs have weapons of their own and a good QB in Alex Smith, but as usual, luck and mistakes keep doing them in. Both teams suck, but something has to give here, right?

Who wins? Truth be told, a tie is not impossible, but let's not go there. The Chiefs are real tough at Arrowhead always, and their defense can do things, I just can't see the Bears rolling in here and stealing one, even if Jeffrey was playing.  Sorry, I have to take KC at home.

Kansas City 29 Chicago 20

Jacksonville at Tampa Bay: The second battle of Florida plays here. The Jaguars have already upset Miami at home earlier, but the Dolphins have since collapsed. This is two franchise trying to build something so this will not be a really big game. But this battle could be big, for these two teams could be a lot better when they meet again in four years. The Jaguars are further along, but the battle of two young QBs in Bortles versus rookie Winston will be interesting. Also watch Jags RB T.J. Yeldon, who looks dangerous,

Who wins? Few folks outside of Florida may care. But if the Jags win, they would be still in the AFC South race that the Colts are starting to take control of (which was expected). Tampa Bay will take any win they could get. I think Jacksonville is further along however, and they will win here. Jaguars win.

Jacksonville 27 Tampa Bay 23

New Orleans at Philadelphia: The Saints are in a big hole, but they are starting to fight back.Winning on MNF over a damaged Cowboys team helps. Now, they go on the road to face a disappointing Eagles squad. The Saints are normally not as good outdoors, but the Eagles are shaky. With a future HOF QB in Drew Brees, the Saints have a big weapon the Eagles don't. The loser of this game is all but out of the race for a wild-card playoff spot. However, if the other NFC East teams all lose, the Eagles lose no ground with a loss. The Saints may need to all-but win out to get back in the NFC South race, but it may already be too late.

Who wins?  The Eagles have a lot of players, but coach Chip Kelly doesn't look good right now and GM Chip Kelly looks like a idiot...at best. I won't say what he might be a worst. I have a lot more faith in Drew Brees and Saints coach Sean Payton and for good reason. If any dome team can steal one in Philly, this is the one. And that is what they will do. Saints win.

New Orleans 29 Philadelphia 20

St. Louis at Green Bay: The Rams have a very good defense. They have a dangerous playmaker in WR Tavon Austin. They may have a new weapon in rookie RB Todd Gurley...maybe. But overall, this team needs more work. Green Bay is a complete team and they are nearly unbeatable at home. Also, QB Aaron Rodgers hasn't thrown a INT at home in a long while, though he almost did two weeks ago. Even if that streak ends, the Packers are too good to lose this one, especially at home. Plus the Rams, another dome team, is not so great outdoors. Need I say more?

Who wins? Really? Unless Green Bay plays the worst offensive game they have done in a long time, I cannot see the Rams winning this unless they control the clock by far more than 2 to 1. Green Bay does have some defense too. I am taking the logical call. Undefeated Green Bay wins again.

Green Bay 28 St. Louis 18

Buffalo at Tennessee: The Bills don't look great and a lot of injured stars. Tennessee is rebuilding and trying to do something in a down AFC South. Somebody has to come through. I don't see how the Bills get it done. But that Rex Ryan....he finds ways. And his QB, Tyrod Taylor...maybe he is the real deal. We are seeing that Titans rookie QB Marcus Mariota is....who wins?

Who wins? I want to take the Titans on this one,,,but that Bills team runs hot and cold...and now it is time for hot. Ryan knows how to win games shorthanded and the Titans don't have enough to take advantage. At least not in 2015. Wait 2 years. But for today, I am taking Buffalo.

Buffalo 20 Tennessee 17 (OT)


Arizona at Detroit: The Lions are the last winless team. But the way they lost on MNF at Seattle was beyond (bleep bleep). That will totally demoralize a team. But the games continue. The Cardinals had a shocking loss last week. But that defense is scary and this team is still in first in the NFC West and could be going for more. Detroit surely isn't going to go 0-16 again, right?

Who wins?


Seattle at Cincinnati: The undefeated Bengals get the NFC champs at home. Nice. But these Bengals are overrated, like Atlanta and their season will be more defined on what they do in the playoffs....if they get there. Seattle is rallying from a 0-2 start, but could use a quality win here,The teams are healthy, bur the Seahawks defense can be the difference...we hope.

Who wins? The Bengals seem overrated, but they have won their first four games. And, we know Seattle is not as tough on the road, and are already 0-2 on the road against tough teams. Could they go 0-3 on the road? I hope not, but I have to take the Bengals at home. The Seahawks offense is not there and without RB Marshawn Lynch, that spells loss. Bengals win.

Cincinnati 29 Seattle 28


New England at Dallas: The Cowboys schedule is doing them no favors. How can Dallas win over the champion Patriots at home....when the Patroits are almost perfect in games after a bye week? And Dallas has no Bryant NOR Romo? And they have lost two straight...after getting at least one game they should have lost? The Patriots are confident, and are rested and they will be ready. This could be ugly.

Who wins? The Patriots had better win, but Dallas is proud and they are not weaponless on offense. Could the defensive players the Cowboys now get after early suspensions make a difference? Yes they can....but just not this week. Sorry, Dallas, I don't see a miracle win here. I am taking New England to win.

New England 34 Dallas 20


Washington at Atlanta: The Redskins are heavy road underdogs against the undefeated Falcons. However, the key to beat them is to keep Atlanta's offense, led by QB Matt Ryan and WRs Julio Jones and Roddy White off the field. The Redskins have the running game led by Alfred Morris to do so as long as QB Kirk Cousins doesn't turn over the ball in the passing game. The defenses are okay, but are not that great. This will be a statement game.

Who wins? Atlanta should be able to run the Redskins right back to DC with their passing game, but I see a upset here. Atlanta has already had too many come-from-behind wins to make me comfortable. This is a trap game for a undefeated team, and this team will get burned. Redskins win.

Washington 24 Atlanta 21

Denver at Oakland: Another undefeated team going for another win. Oakland is stronger than they look. Denver is definitely weaker than they look. Could this be the day the Raiders stun the world and beat a top-level team as they work toward being contenders again? The young Raider offensive weapons are dangerous, but the veteran Denver QB Peyton Manning still has a lot of tricks. This game will steal the show this week.

Who wins? Denver this, Denver that....whatever, This Denver squad has been lucky in 2015, NOT dominant. The Raiders are dangerous and may have the offensive weapons to go toe to toe with anyone, even a less than stellar Denver squad. I am taking Oakland in a major upset.

Oakland 29 Denver 27

Sunday Night Football (NBC): San Francisco at New York Giants: This could be nasty. The Niners have not looked good since the opener and the Super Bowl 50 hosts are in deep trouble. But considering all of their losses on both sides of the ball in the offseason, what do you expect? The Giants have rallied from their horrific finish in their first 2 games to be 2-2 and back in the NFC East race. This is a game the Giants must have to help their confidence. What could go wrong? With either of these teams....a lot! This may not be the best SNF game, but we may see some fun stuff. Remember, Giants WR Odell Beckham, Jr. is playing.....

Who wins? This should be a Giants win, but why do I sense that Niners QB Colin Kaepernick is going to turn some heads this night? Because despite his horrible performances the last few weeks, he is not as bad as some think. Nor is his team. The Giants should win, but I am taking the upset. San Francisco steals one on the road.

San Francisco 28 New York Giants 27

Monday Night Football (ESPN): Pittsburgh at San Diego: The Steelers, like Dallas and others are struggling with their starting QB out for a long period.  However, Michael Vick is no ordinary backup QB and the Steelers have offensive weapons galore. They have had extra days to digest the overtime loss to Baltimore at home on TNF last week and prepare for MNF going west. The Chargers are a dangerous squad but have had a tough start. But it gets harder from here and the Steelers are no joke. But QB Philip Rivers is good and he had his weapons too. This will be one of the best MNF games of the season.

Who wins?

Bonus picks:

1. American League Division Series (best of 5):
   a. Texas at Toronto:  This is the year of surprise playoff teams in baseball. Texas has been good the last few years but has backtracked a little the last couple of years. After a crazy finish in the AL West, the Rangers are back and hoping for better results. The Blue Jays have tried to build up for a while in a stacked AL East and finally return to the playoffs for the first time since their World Series years 20-plus years ago after getting past Baltimore and the Yankees late.This will be a series of two teams who have similar teams who are looking to shock the world.

Who wins? This series is too close to call and I expect a 5 game series. Bottom line, the Jays had injuries to some of their stars who may be back for this series. That, and having the home field advantage will be enough to get Toronto through to the ALCS. I am taking the Blue Jays.

Toronto in  5 games.

    b: Houston (wildcard winner) at Kansas City (top seed): The shocking run of the Astros continues after they shut down and shut out the mighty Yankees...in the Bronx no less! But now they face the underdog heroes of last year, the Royals. As far as the fans of baseball is concerned, there are no losers, for who can hate a underdog. But here, the Royals are the favorites and they are the top AL seed with the advantage of experience as well. Who has the magic in this series?

Who wins? Kansas City can not sneak up on the AL playoff teams this time, That momentum belongs to Houston. But the advantage of experience, a complete roster and home-field should be enough to get them through....but Houston is young(er), exciting and has nothing to lose, for they were not supposed to be here. Who does THAT remind you of? Baseball has a way of having surprises in the playoffs, but not here. I have to take the top seed, but it won't be a sweep like last year.

Kansas City in 4 games



2. National League Division Series(best of 5):

    a. New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers: Those amazing Mets are back in the playoffs! They got hot late and made the late push with brilliant player moves to overtake a shaky Nationals squad in a toothless NL East to make the playoffs. Even better, they have outlasted the hated cross-town Yankees before playing a game. Bonus! But now it is time to get serious. The three-time defending West champs are ready to make their move back to the World Series. Their awesome 1-2 starting pitching punch will be hard to beat, especially with home-field. But the Mets are not scared and they are still at least warm after a slow finish, helped by the Nationals inability to win late in the year. This will be a good series.

Who wins? Despite all of the good moves during the season, the Mets not being able to clinch home field for this series will do them in, unless Kershaw and/or Grienke are far less than their normal dominating selves and/or the Mets can do amazing things, even on the road. However, the playoff experience and savvy of manager Don Mattingly will be the difference, for the Dodgers can play beyond their two top starting pitchers, large payroll notwithstanding. I am taking the Dodgers.

Los Angeles Dodgers in 4 games.

    b. Chicago Cubs (wildcard winner) at St. Louis (top seed): These two teams know each other well, being in the same division. Bottom line, we have the established powerhouse versus those love-able losers. Most baseball fans outside of Chicago want to see the Cubs end their playoff and World Series jinx, and maybe they have the team and manager to (finally) do it. But could this be the year? The Cardinals say no and they have the team to stop the young Cubs. But neither team can surprise the other, so it comes down to who makes fewer mistakes and more great plays. Simple as that.

Who wins? Most folk will take St. Louis and their powerful roster that has been consistently in the playoffs a lot the last few years. Until Wednesday night, the Cubs had not won a playoff game in quite a while. Kansas City stunned the AL and pillaged their way to the World Series and almost won it when no one expected them to even be a wild-card. Like Houston, the Cubs are in the same spot, though the Cubs have briefly looked better the last few years but couldn't finish. Against the most familiar of foes, I think that with a great (and unusual) and experienced manager like Joe Maddon, these Cubs can finally flip the so-familiar script, even without home-field. That will make baseball fans go crazy. I am taking the Cubs in a monster upset.

Chicago Cubs in 5 games (extra innings in 2 games including Game 5)

NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup: Contender Round (12 drivers): Race 4: Charlotte:
This race is a Saturday night race at the "home" of NASCAR where most of the teams are based (or nearby). This is the first race of the second round of the Chase with 12 drivers. The pressure gets higher from here especially with the next race at Kansas and especially the "elimination" race for this round is at Talledega, the fastest and arguably the most dangerous track on the circuit. The surprise is that 6-time champ Jimmie Johnson is out after a horrible finish due to parts failure at Dover. However, defending champ Kevin Harvick, by winning Dover after running out of gas at New Hampshire while leading at the end is still in. These drivers know that winning either Charlotte or Kansas is a must, for no one can safely hope to get a great finish at Talledega for it is the ultimate wild-card track. Having such as the elimination race for this round of the Chase is fun for fans....nasty for (all) the drivers, especially the Chase drivers who may be on the brink of elimination by then.
    For this race, see more strategy and less coolness, especially in the final laps. I expect most of the Chase drivers to do well, but I think that a non-Chase driver will win the race, especially the just-eliminated Jimmie Johnson. Three or more Chase drivers will wreck and finish lower than 25th which will hurt.



    

2015 NFL Picks Week 4...plus picks for NASCAR Chase Race 3 at Dover

NFL Picks: Week Four

Fantasy football owners: Bye weeks begin NOW!!!! But only two teams are on bye. But, also note that we have a game in London this week with a 930am EDT start time on Sunday. Please prepare and recheck your rosters accordingly.

Last week's picks: 12-4...Much better..better than I thought! Season: 23-25....getting back up there.

Bonus picks: 3-1  Total: 7-5

I was right with my NASCAR picks, and Harvick came so close to winning but ran out of gas with less than 3 laps and lost some points. He is just outside the cutoff for the Challenger round, but he does not have to win to advance. Dover will be crazy, though I hope the approaching hurricane doesn't case a race postponement, for if they can't race Sunday, I don't think Monday or Tuesday will be options either. NASCAR might be wise to move the race up to Saturday night, perhaps? My NFL picks were real good. We will see if I can continue that this week, but the noted weather will affect some games on Sunday...but not the one in London..lol.

Teams on Bye:

1.       New England (3-0): What is there to say about the defending champions? After regaining the services of QB Tom Brady just before the opener, New England has been doing well. They did smash Jacksonville (that was expected), but they had to fight to beat Pittsburgh at home and Buffalo on the road. For once, everyone is healthy and they look good. BUT…the schedule gets harder from here, and knowing they have 13 straight games after this, and everyone else in the AFC other than the Titans will have a later bye could be trouble if anyone important gets hurt for any serious time, which has happened to so many teams (especially contenders in both conferences already). Still, the leaders and head of this team has been here before and nothing beats experience. No one will say this team could take a run at an undefeated (regular) season right now, but anything is possible. But this early bye may not help on that.

2.       Tennessee (1-2): The Titans are sitting in a surprising 4-way tie in the AFC South and they get to rest first while the other teams try to even their record (at most either one or two will, barring ties).  Rookie 2^nd overall pick QB Marcus Mariota has already shown he has more game than one thinks. But this team still has many holes to fill. No one expects this team to contend for a AFC South title. But if Houston and especially Indianapolis continue to struggle and/or suffer some of the same injuries or worse to vital players that other teams (Dallas, Pittsburgh to name two) have, who knows? Stranger things have happened in today's parity-driven NFL.

Thursday Night Football on CBS/NFL Network: Baltimore at Pittsburgh: I have been having issues on picking this game. You know the rivalry.  Here is where it gets tough: Both are on a short week, Baltimore is traveling to Pittsburgh desperate for a win, having fallen to 0-3 for the first time in franchise history. A fourth conference (and second division) loss this early will all but bury Baltimore as far as virtually all tie-breakers are concerned. Pittsburgh is hosting, but must play on a short week (and a few after this) with veteran backup QB Michael Vick with starter Ben Roethlisberger (knee ligament sprain, bone bruise) out for several weeks. Vick is no Big Ben but he has talents and is a experienced former NFL starter. His diminished yet still dangerous mobility and being a lefty (most QBs, especially starters like Big Ben are right-handed) can throw off a lot of defenses some. Such can help a Pittsburgh offensive line which is already weakened with C Maurice Pouncey gone. However, the offensive weapons, especially WR Antonio Brown and HB Le'Veon Bell, just back from suspension (WR Martavius Bryant will also be back from his suspension next week) and TE Heath Miller are still here. Vick can do a lot of damage with that. 

Who wins? There are few teams in the NFL that can rally (quickly) from losing their starting QB in a game. Pittsburgh is one of them, especially with head coach Mike Tomlin (what's up, Nupe!) at the helm. Michael Vick can be better than virtually all current backup QBs right now, but his weaknesses are still there. However, the weapons around him will stymie most teams. Since Baltimore has lost their defensive leader (Terrell Suggs, Achilles) for the year and the offense is not totally rolling, the exploits of WR Steve Smith, Sr. notwithstanding, can you really call Baltimore one of the teams that can still stop this Steeler offense? I don't think so, and especially not a short week and IN Pittsburgh. We won't even talk about the kicking game at Heinz Field and Baltimore PK Justin Tucker is one of the best around. Baltimore, normally I would go for you, but not right now, not under these circumstances. While I think Vick will have a uneven first start, at best, Pittsburgh overall has too much for Baltimore to handle away from Baltimore. I have to take the Steelers. Just make sure Tomlin does not "accidentally" slip onto the field while watching the jumbo-tron during a Ravens kick return down the Pittsburgh sideline again.

Pittsburgh 29 Baltimore 24

Sunday’s Games:

New York Jets at Miami from London: 930am EDT start on CBS: This is the first of the three games from London for this season. Both teams know they need to win to stay in the AFC East race while the undefeated Patriots are on bye this week. Miami has not looked that great all year, even in their opening day win at Washington. Worse yet, losing a home date for this game doesn't help matters, especially if they lose. The free agent spending, plus the contract extension of QB Ryan Tannehill has not produced much so far. That needs to change fast, with the Miami coaches on the hot seat. The young Jets made a splash with  two early wins, but they haven't faced New England nor Buffalo yet. They are doing it without injured QB Geno Smith. His replacement Ryan Fitzpatrick has done well so far, but how long can he keep it up? Either way, such is not good for young Smith's future with this team. But that is for later on.

Who wins? Both need a win to stay in the playoff race, especially with some of the AFC powers struggling and surprising teams rising up. The loser of this games, especially if it is Miami, will be in a deep hole that will be very hard to get out of. In my opinion, Miami's offense is still a work in progress at best and the defense looks tough, but has yet to prove it, especially against a truly tough offense. They won't do it here either. The Jets have something going, and with rookie coach Todd Bowles, they very simply have nothing to lose by going for it all, unlike so many in Miami. Jets win again.

New York Jets 29 Miami 20

St. Louis at Arizona: The Rams seem to be in big trouble. After upsetting the Seahawks at home, they have choked away wins at Washington and against the Steelers, even after they lost their all-world QB for half the game and backup Michael Vick did nothing (we won't talk about the fire before the game...lol.). The Ram defense seems somewhat good..at times, but the offense sucks. Injuries haven't helped. Arizona, however, is on fire!!!! We are now seeing what this team can do with a healthy QB Carson Palmer, even without a steady running game. This team, along with Green Bay are now the NFC front-runners...as long as Palmer stays healthy. However, the Cardinals know they must rack up as many early wins as they can for the schedule is much tougher from here. But they know that their toughest games...the final two versus the Packers and Seattle are both at HOME makes a big difference (being home for Christmas AND New Years with the potential of staying home for a potential first playoff game is BIG). But that is then, this is now. The Cardinals must take care of business and not look ahead for 3 of their next 4 are away from home in the Eastern Time Zone before their bye.

Who wins? The Rams have tough D. They have a good coach. But they don't have everything together yet. The Cardinals are ready to go, and making the playoffs (barely) last  year gives them a experience that the Rams do not have. Plus, these birds are real tough at home. And after the beatdown they laid on the Niners, how can the Rams do much better with no offense? Cardinals win again.

Arizona 33 St. Louis 19

 Carolina at Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay is young. They have weapons but do not yet have it all together on how to use them yet. Carolina is 3-0 despite having not that much of a passing game, having lost their best WR for the year, and having a so-so running game, mostly due to QB Cam Newton. The defense may be better with the trade for DE Jared Allen from Chicago. But they are not blowing out teams because they can't. They need more to compete with the Green Bays and the Arizonas and the Atlantas of the NFL. The good news is...they probably won't need that this week, even on the road. The bad news is the schedule gets nasty from here after next week's bye including at Seattle in 2 weeks, then Eagles, Colts, and Packers back to back to back at home, at Dallas on Thanksgiving and 4 division games in the final 5 games including the home and home with co-division leader Atlanta in Week 14 (home) and 16 (road). If they have some offensive magic they haven't found yet...better find today.

Who wins? This is a trap game, but Tampa may not be able to bring their talent together to make it work, even at home. Carolina is tougher than the Saints or the Titans, and Newton is a rare talent at QB who is hell on any defense,,even good ones. Tampa doesn't have that so Carolina wins, but it will be close again, which is not good.

Carolina 28 Tampa Bay 20

Cleveland at San Diego: Both teams got beat up last week. Cleveland is shakier after allowing QB Josh McCown to take over against Oakland though QB Johnny Manziel had won his first game as a starter the previous week. McCown was not bad, but he wasn't that great. The Chargers just could not stop surging RB Adrian Peterson in Minnesota, but that is not a diss to San Diego, since those Vikings can be scary at home. Now the Chargers can do the same to a confused Browns team who could not stop the young Raiders attack. What can the Browns do against the powerful Chargers pass game led by experienced QB Philip Rivers? Not much, I think.

Who wins? Cleveland is no road juggernaut. I can't see them going west and winning. Rivers is too good at home, even with no real running game (yet). The improving Cleveland defense could not stop Oakland at home, but other teams will be saying the same real soon. The Chargers will win going away. Period. Not much else to say, even if Manziel was the starter.

San Diego 33 Cleveland 24

Green Bay at San Francisco: Green Bay looks real good so far. But we all know that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is a bit more mortal away from Lambeau Field. Before the mass exodus of players and coaches last offseason, these Niners looked dangerous. This might have been a big game...but not now. The Niners are playing for pride, but with their division rivals also looking up to the undefeated Cardinals, the young Niners may be thinking something...but after the beatdown at Arizona last week....not so fast.

Who wins? Arizona did bad things to the Niners last week, worse than Pittsburgh did the week before. In some ways, Green Bay is better than both of them. Seriously, what chance does the Niners have of winning this game, unless Rodgers and more go down too? Right. That is what I thought. Green Bay wins again.

Green Bay 34 San Francisco 17

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: This is another of those in-division tilts that should be a mis-match. But not right now. The Colts are in a hole, but the entire division is in the same hole. The Colts are the best positioned to escape such the fastest, but QB Andrew Luck has issues. Can he continue to fix them against the younger Jaguars? As of now, I am not convinced. But the Colts have won their last 15 division games. Will this be 16?

Who wins? The Jaguars have some talent but not enough to stop the Colts at home. Luck needs to start playing better now or the Colts are in trouble since this team is all about Luck, and the rest of the team has not been stepping up. This is a trap game, but not so much. Lose this game and the season is not over. But a 1-3 start is not good for anyone, especially this team...even in this division. Colts win..barely.

Indianapolis 29 Jacksonville 27

Kansas City at Cincinnati: Cincinnati has been doing well. but one would say that is in spite of the errors this team has had since the opener. The Chiefs could actually test the Bengals for they are not that bad. They just do not play up to that talent. Sorry. Same could be said of the Bengals in the playoffs. Still, this could be a fun game for some. The Bengals can afford a loss, as far as the division is concerned, but the schedule is nasty the rest of the way. The Bengals need to stay on the gas..if they can.

Who wins? I am not sold on the Bengals. This is a big trap game with this Chiefs team being a dangerous squad. The Chiefs have a pass rush that will foul up most QBs and Bengals QB Andy Dalton has his bad moments. I am taking a upset here and going with the Chiefs. I just see a upset coming. Chiefs will get the win they should have had against Denver.

Kansas City 31 Cincinnati 28 (OT)

New York Giants at Buffalo: This is a must win for Buffalo. The Bills looked good last week, but with their best weapons (LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins) out with injuries, Bills Nations should be real worried. The Giants are not great or as skilled, especially with WR Victor Cruz out again. But the Giants have had extra time to prepare for these Bills and they do have experience and WR Odell Beckham, Jr. A upset could happen.

Who wins? The Bills could be a AFC power soon....but not yet, if they can't keep their best players on the field. This is a trap game and a problem with Watkins and McCoy on the field. Without them, Big Blue can and will come in and steal a game the Bills need to win. Somehow. That is what the Giants do...with or without Cruz. I am taking the upset here, too. Giants win.

New York Giants 29 Buffalo 27

Minnesota at Denver: Denver is escaped with three wins and are back home. But the dangerous Vikings come to town with young QB Teddy Bridgewater and a rejuvenated RB Adrian Peterson. The thin air of Denver will help, but the Broncos offense has no run game at all. How do you control the clock with no run game? 50 short throws from Denver QB Peyton Manning will not do it. Minnesota can run and control the clock. Manning cannot beat you on the sidelines, either. This will be a interesting game.

Who wins? The Broncos have gotten lucky twice, but the Vikings present a challenge that Denver cannot stop without turnovers. I don't know if the Broncos can score a lot, and Manning is..you know. Minnesota is starting to believe they can do something this year. A win in Denver goes a long way towards that, and I think they get it. Vikings win.

Minnesota 28 Denver 27

Houston at Atlanta:  Atlanta is had comebacks in every game this year to make it to 3-0. Houston's offense is just not good. If injured RB Arian Foster can play (I think he won't this week), that helps...but Atlanta has too much firepower on offense, especially in the dome. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is more than dangerous at home and the running game may be back to go with the pasing team. Even a great defense can't stop everyone every week, especially without a offense to match. Sorry.

Who wins? The defense is good....but the offense, even with Foster is not so much for Houston. I don't think much of the Atlanta defense, especially against the run, but Houston's defense will get worn out trying to these Falcons, and they will falter later and the Atlanta confidence grows as they try to keep place with Carolina and the other NFC unbeatens. Atlanta wins again.

Atlanta 33 Houston 21

 Philadelphia at Washington: Simply put....not many points here. The DC area has had rain all week. That shaky field at FedEx Field will likely resemble a mud pit. Muddy games can be fun, but only offensive linemen and (some) running backs enjoy such. That hurts the Eagles offense, even if RB DeMarco Murray plays, which I don't think he is. If Washington runs the ball against a shaky Eagles run defense with big RB Alfred Morris, the Redskins can wear the big Eagles defense down, even without WR DeSean Jackson (hamstring) and so many injured players on both sides of the ball, including so many on IR. Throwing passes will be at a premium here and the bad weather helps Washington more than Philadelphia... at least right now.

Who wins?  The above states it all. If the Washington coaches don't get cute and/or stupid, they can grind out a win here. The loser of this game will be in big trouble and right now, a loss would hurt the Eagles more....and not by much. Remember, Washington has nothing to lose. The Eagles have all the scrutiny on them. Perhaps Eagles coach Chip Kelly should be checking the temperature of his seat right now? Maybe? Right. Washington wins.

Washington 24 Philadelphia 17

 Oakland at Chicago: The Bears look bad. Even if they had injured starting QB Jay Cutler, this team has not been that good. Things are going to get worse, even after Cutler returns. The Raiders are on fire, having won their first road game in the Eastern Time zone in 6 years and two straight games. A loss by Denver, coupled with an Oakland win would put Oakland in a 1^st place tie, which is big for this young team. This is a classic trap game, however. How will QB Derek Carr and these young offensive weapons handle this challenge, especially when the first third of their difficult division schedule still lies ahead?

Who wins? Oakland has played well the last two weeks and the defense is better than it looks. Chicago, even with injured WR Alshon Jeffrey back is likely not going to have enough to win, unless these youngsters beat themselves. These Raiders need a blowout win to really help their confidence, not another barely survive type of win. As much as everyone else says the blowout win happens here, I will be conservative and say solid win for Oakland. That will work too.

Oakland 28 Chicago 20

Sunday Night Football on NBC: Dallas at New Orleans: This game would a marquee game, but a lot of mess has occurred. Dallas lost their first game at home after blowing a lead to (still undefeated) Atlanta. True QB Tony Romo and WR Dez Bryant weren’t playing (and neither will for quite a while yet), but that was an inexcusable loss. The Saints are worse off, starting 0-3, but expect future HOF QB Drew Brees to return after missing last week’s loss at Carolina (barely). If Dallas can run the ball like they did in the first half last week, and do it for the WHOLE GAME, they should win. If they get cute (or dumb, take your pick), Brees can and will burn them and that won’t be good, for Dallas does NOT have a big lead in the crazy NFC East. One or two of the other three teams will still be close, so a second straight loss here would not be good for Dallas.

Who wins? Brees looks like he will play Sunday Night, and these Saints are scary at home in a primetime TV game. Dallas' run game looked good in the first half, but they stopped running and that was a big factor in the loss to Atlanta. Without their two stars, Dallas is just another team or worse. Just another team is not enough to beat the Saints at home. I am taking New Orleans.

New Orleans 33 Dallas 25

Monday Night Football on ESPN: Detroit at Seattle: Detroit once again got the shaft when it came to scheduling. After blowing a potential winning game in the home opener to Denver on SNF, they get an extra day off to fly west to face still-angry Seattle and the fully reformed Legion of Boom. Not good. Yes, RB Marshawn Lynch is banged up. So is Detroit QB Matthew Stafford. Real simple, Detroit would have a better chance if both teams were 3-0 coming in, instead of a winless road team and Seattle’s only win over a hapless and Cutler-less Bears team here last week. A Detroit win here would be monumental, bigger than Dallas winning here last year in the regular season.  For Detroit to have any chance to steal a wild-card berth, they need to likely win out…yeah, right. I hope Detroit’s PK Matt Prater is feeling better this week after getting sick before facing his old team. Not that it mattered.

Who wins? Really? I am not convinced Detroit can win even if they played well, Lynch sat the game out and Seattle QB Russell Wilson plays the worst game of his career (and remember when he did that, somehow Seattle won anyway in the NFC title game last year!). Detroit is a shell of what Green Bay is and even crazy me cannot and will not pick that upset, especially with the game in Seattle. Sorry, Seattle wins.

Seattle 30 Detroit 19

Bonus picks: NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup: Race 3: First Elimination Race: Dover: This race determines the Chase drivers who advance to the Contender Round (of 12). Ten spots remain with Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin already through to the Contender Round with wins. Qualifying was rained out, so the 16 Chase drivers will all be in the front to start the race, based on points. However, defending champion Kevin Harvick is 15th (23 points behind 12th place Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and he and 16th place Clint Bowyer (39 points behind 12th) must win or hope that Earnhardt, Jr., 11th place Jamie MacMurray, 13th place Kyle Busch AND 14th place Paul Menard all wreck early and finish worse than 36th (if not the bottom 4-5 places (39th to 43rd) AND Harvick and/or Bowyer finish top 2 or 3 (well, Bowyer must win,,period).
    But Dover is not Harvick's nor Bowyer's best track and no one will get much practice time on the track due to the constant rains of this week. If there is anyone who can get that win in this situation, it is Harvick, having done it last year to win the championship. But that was at Phoenix and Homestead then, this is now. Miracles can happen...but this race will be a war. It may look like (upcoming) Talledega but without the restrictor plates or the big speeds. A Contender Round without Harvick and/or Kyle Busch and/or Bowyer (almost a sure thing at this point) or possibly even Jeff Gordon in his final full time campaign would be a shock. But shocks happen in the playoffs, especially in NASCAR.

Who is in and who is out?
IN: Kenseth, Hamlin (clinched)
Should be safe barring finishing last: Edwards, Logano, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch
No sure thing, but will slip in: Keselowski, Newman, (has enough of a points lead to get in without disaster early), 

Barely makes it in: Dale Jr. (he will find a way to get a top 10 and that will be enough), Kyle Busch (after what he had to do after his injuries at Daytona just to make it in the Chase and actually doing it....you want to bet against him when he is ONLY 1 point out of 12th with one race to go? Right.) Gordon (sentimental favorite, too experienced and savvy to not get the needed finish to move on, especially since he will start 10th and will stay out of trouble all day), Harvick (he pulls off the miracle and wins this race and gets in, even if others finish way back due to wrecks. He has led more laps than any driver this year. He is that damn good and he is pissed off and also desperate to make it to the Contender round. Outside of Kyle Busch this year, what driver can match that, much less the attitude needed to get a win by (virtually) any means necessary?)


OUT (unless he wins the race);
Bowyer: He can drive and he could win this race, but needs a perfect race and all of the other chasers other than Kenseth and Hamlin to mess up a lot to steal this win. Won't happen or he won't be in the right place to take advantage if it did.
Menard : He has too much bad luck and no teammates to help.
MacMurray : Same as Menard, plus too many drivers right at the same point total. Someone has to fall short if everyone finishes close together in that group between 10th and 15th. He will miss 12th place by less than 5 points (2-4 places)
Truex, Jr.: Some Chase driver will wreck and will miss the next round by finishing below 30th. Truex will be the one who loses the most ground, because his luck is not great, either and I will not bet against Harvick or Kyle Busch, especially if one wins the race and the other is right behind him with at least one or two bonus points and Truex gets no bonus points (for leading a lap and/or most laps).