My picks for Week 17 of the NFL season (based on my thoughts, my research and what I think ONLY!):
Disclamer: These are my picks and opinions only. If you make picks and/or bet money, favors or whatever based on what is listed below with whomever or wherever, that is on you. If you win, great! Let me know (or even send me a small cut of the profits...lol!) If not, don't bitch. These picks does have 50/50 odds. Better than the lottery. If some team chokes a game due to..whatever...not my fault. I will be mad too. Maybe!
Disclaimer done: Let the games begin!
This week was a horrible week for me on picks (4-12), but the bonus picks were so-so. And I lost two fantasy football finals. But I get one more chance to do better on picks and win another fantasy football title for 2013. Let’s see how I do.
This will be a crazy, but very important weekend. Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football has been concluded. This is the final week for Sunday night (NBC) for the 2013 season. Almost every game will have playoff implications for at least one of the teams involved, depending on other results. Hence, I will list the three games that have no implications first, then go through the rest. Enjoy!
For a few fantasy leagues (including one of mine), the finals are THIS WEEK! Good luck to everyone and congratulations to those who won championships (and/or money) after last week’s games!
Week 17 Games:
Houston at Tennessee: This will be a game that no one cares much about, other than fans of each team. If the Texans lose or tie this game, they clinch the number one pick in the May NFL draft. Such may also kills interim coach Wade Phillips’ chances at the permanent job. Phillips is a okay coach, but I am not sure he is the one (considering age, track record as a head coach) to lead a clear rebuilding project that the Texans are. The good news is that the entire division, except for the division champion Colts are in the same predicament, and even the Colts are far from a complete team…yet. Houston, unfortunately, may not have enough to steal this win on the road. Let’s hope 2014 is better for both teams. Titans win.
Tennessee 24 Houston 20
Detroit at Minnesota: This game should have meant something. But Minnesota’s injuries and bad start and Detroit’s inability to win ONE game down the stretch when it mattered most prevented that. Both head coaches could get fired after the season, but I think Detroit coach Jim Schwartz is on the hotter seat after his Lions lost 5 of their last 6 when one more win would have positioned them to win the division if they won this game. This is the final home game for the Vikings indoors at the Metrodome or whatever they call it. They will build a new (open-air, I think) stadium to be ready in 2016 and will play at the University of Minnesota’s outdoor field for the next two years. Such a move may help the Vikings by giving them a cold-weather home field advantage that helped them reach 4 Super Bowls in the 1970s that they have not had in decades. Just a thought, but that advantage has helped Green Bay for decades. Will it help the Vikings? Time will tell. Anyway, we will see one more nice offensive display, but little else. Vikings steal their final home game.
Minnesota 30 Detroit 28
Washington at the New York Giants: Both teams are out of the playoffs, and both have a lot to sort through. Is both head coaches gone? Or just one…or neither? Hard to say. In my opinion, both coaches should go, but for different reasons. But those decisions are for after next Sunday or after the full season ends. This game is for pride and will be the final game at MetLife Stadium before the Super Bowl in 6 weeks as the streak continues of no NFL team ever playing a Super Bowl in their home stadium. Washington backup QB Kirk Cousins has looked decent in his two starts, but the defense has let them down. I somehow don’t think there will be 3 in a row. The Giants defense is not much better than the mess that is the Redskins defense and with Giants QB Eli Manning throwing interceptions at a team-record pace, I think the Redskins will steal this one on the road and give retiring LB London Fletcher that one more win he should have got at home last week. Road time wins.
Washington 27 New York Giants 24
Carolina at Atlanta: Carolina is excited after clinching their first playoff berth in 5 years. The question is…which spot will the Panthers have? This game will help decide that. Unfortunately, Atlanta is in the way, and they will fight to win, as they showed on MNF at San Francisco, almost stealing the final regular-season game at Candlestick Park from the home team. Bottom line: Carolina wins, they are the NFC South champs and the 2 seed (outside chance at the top seed, explained below) in the playoffs. If they lose or tie and New Orleans wins, the Panthers fall to a wildcard 5 or maybe 6 seed. Atlanta has the home-field and the experience to be the semi-spoilers in this one, but I think the Carolina defense is good enough to save this win, as did the defense of the Niners on Monday night. Carolina needs that home field just as much as New Orleans, but they have the advantage and I think they will not blow it, even on the road. Panthers win.
Carolina 28 Atlanta 27
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: The Colts have already got the 4 seed by way of the AFC South title and you know from the earlier thoughts on Titans-Texans my thoughts on the rest of the division. This game is ALMOST meaningless, but the Colts want and need this one, if only for momentum since they will almost certainly host Kansas City in a wild-card game next weekend. The Jags have won few games since their 0-8 start, but I like to think the Colts realize the big picture, win the game and try not to get any starters hurt and relax. Lucky for them this is a home game. Will it help them next week? We will see.
Indianapolis 27 Jacksonville 24
New York Jets at Miami: The Jets could not keep ahead of the other wild card hopefuls and fell out of the playoff picture in the last few weeks. Will coach Rex Ryan be fired? Will injured QB Mark Sanchez be on this team in 2014? Not betting on either one. Anyway, the Dolphins now have the slight advantage for the final AFC (wildcard) playoff berth. Simple scenario. Win this game and have Baltimore lose to Cincinnati and they are in. If the Dolphins lose (or tie), either the Ravens, Chargers or even Steelers (yes, them!) go to the playoffs with a win and other help. Miami may or may not still get in the playoffs in the unlikely case that all 4 teams lost Sunday or if the 8-7 teams all win, but I am not sure on that. Miami is playing well. They are at home. The Jets have nothing to play for. But Miami MUST win the game, regardless. Miami wins, right??? Wrong. Somehow, I sense the Jets will steal this one, and keep the Dolphins out….if other things happen. Sorry, Miami. But you will be dangerous in 2014.
New York Jets 20 Miami 17 (OT)
Baltimore at Cincinnati: This is another interesting game. The Bengals clinched the AFC North with Baltimore’s loss last week. But the Bengals have a chance to move into the two seed if Buffalo upsets New England and the Bengals win. Lose this game and the Bengals could fall to the 4 seed if the Colts win (if the Colts lose, the Bengals lock in the 3 seed at worst). At the same time, if Baltimore wins and Miami (and San Diego and Pittsburgh) loses, the Ravens win the 6 seed and win the right to attempt to defend their Super Bowl title. The Bengals cannot rest players since their seed is not locked, nor do they want to risk seeing Baltimore getting in for they run the risk of having to see the Ravens again next weekend in the same place (if the Bengals are the 3 seed). Of course, they may have to face Kansas City at home if they get the 4 seed, which is just as bad an option, in my opinion. I said earlier that I think Miami will not beat the Jets, but even if the Dolphins win, a Ravens win here may also kick Miami out of the playoffs too, due to tiebreakers. No matter what, this game means a lot to more than two teams. I think the Ravens experience in win-or-go home games will carry them through here. Besides, Cincinnati knows their next (playoff) game will be at home, whether it is next week, or in two weeks. The Ravens know that there will be no more home games this year, win or lose. But this team could win 3 road playoff games and get to a second straight Super Bowl. Will they win this game and make the playoffs as a result? We will see. Ravens win.
Baltimore 35 Cincinnati 34
Kansas City at San Diego: Okay, this will be an interesting game. The Chiefs have clinched a 5 seed and know they will be on the road for the wild-card playoffs next week. They just do not know where they will play yet. The Chargers, like the Steelers, need a win and a lot of help to slip into the playoffs as the six seed. How hard will the Chiefs try to win this road game and/or rest their starters when a loss means nothing to them? Hard to say, though they need to be sharp for their road playoff game next week, which is winnable since their opponent will not be Denver. The Chiefs have the talent to beat any of their potential opponents, even on the road in this round. The Chargers will fight and I think will win the game due partially to indifference by the Chiefs. But the playoff berth will either go to Miami or Baltimore. I am not so convinced both will lose to allow San Diego to steal the spot, but if it happens, and San Diego gets in…other teams should be real worried next week.
San Diego 28 Kansas City 24
Cleveland at Pittsburgh: The Steelers need a
miracle and a win to make the playoffs. After their -0-4 start, who would think
the Steelers would be this chance? Almost no one. Ultimately, losses to Oakland
and Baltimore may have did them in. But the rally is amazing. Cleveland has
some nice pieces but will need more time. Having an extra first round pick in
the May draft may pay big dividends if they use it well. For this game,
Pittsburgh will send their home fans home happy, even as the playoffs slip
away. Maybe another snow game? Home team wins.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: New Orleans put themselves in a bad spot with last week’s loss at Carolina. Lose this game and if Arizona upsets the Niners, the Saints are out of the playoffs entirely. But if they win and Carolina loses, the Saints win the NFC South and probably a first round bye. Tampa is playing better after their craziness before the season and 0-8 start, but New Orleans is devastating at home. No upset here. Saints win.
New Orleans 28 Tampa Bay 23
St. Louis at Seattle: Seattle’s surprising home loss last week along with the Niners surviving Monday night forced this game to be more important. Bottom line. Seattle wins or ties, they get the one seed, bye week and the division title. Lose and if San Francisco wins, Seattle falls to the 5 seed and must play on the road next week. The Rams have little to play for but an upset like this could be a springboard to success next season. Seattle seems to be reeling in December after looking dominant almost all year, but last week’s home loss was a surprise. I cannot see the Seahawks blowing two home games in a row and maybe more. Home team wins, but I am not as convinced about the Seahawks having a easy road to the Super Bowl from here.
Seattle 24 St. Louis 17
San Francisco at Arizona: This is another important game. The defending NFC champion 49ers have made the playoffs, but need another win to avoid the six seed. Also, if they win and Seattle falls at home versus the Rams, the Niners win the NFC West, and possibly the top NFC seed as well. Arizona must win and hope New Orleans loses to steal the 6 seed and make the playoffs, which might also clinch Coach of the Year for first-year coach Bruce Arians. Who wins? The Niners have gotten back their swagger of late and look more like a defending conference champ than the shaken bunch after their blowout loss in Seattle many weeks ago. Arizona will be a force next year, if they draft well. But for this one game this year, the Niners are just too strong and motivated. Road team wins.
San Francisco 31 Arizona 27
Buffalo at New England: New England is playing for a high seed. Win this game and Denver loses, the Patriots clinch the top AFC playoff seed. Lose this game and they risk falling from the two seed all the way to the four seed (if Cincinnati AND Indianapolis both win), lose the bye week off AND will have to host Kansas City next week in a wildcard game. These Pats are not so weak that they can’t win 3 games to get to the Super Bowl, but with this lineup which is FAR less potent than even last year’s team…I don’t know. But it is good enough to get by these Bills t home, who are a long way from challenging them….but not as far as most think. Patriots win.
New England 30 Buffalo 20
Denver at Oakland: Oakland is finishing a tough season, but they get one more chance to upset someone. Denver must win (unless New England loses or ties) to clinch the top seed in the AFC playoffs. Lose and the Patriots win…they fall to the 2 seed (Denver already clinched the 2 seed at worst last week). That difference is big if both win their divisional playoff game and Denver had to go back to New England for the AFC championship game. Peyton Manning also broke the single-season TD passing record last week at Houston (51). He may want to add a couple to the record if he can, but should he play? One wrong hit or slip could injure Manning and end the Broncos’ playoff season before it starts. But you know he will play. Can Oakland win? QB Terrelle Pryor will start over Matthew McGloin and the Raiders have nothing to lose. Can a Denver loss prevent them from going to the Super Bowl. They were the top seed last year and look what happened. Denver should win, but if Manning is pulled early or held out (not an option since the Patriots will be playing at the same time as the Broncos), Raiders win…somehow.
Oakland 28 Denver 27
Green Bay at Chicago: Simple bottom line. NFC North title on the line. Winner take all (unless there is a tie, where Chicago wins the division.). Loser goes home. Period. As of today (Thursday), Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers seems to be ready to play in the biggest game of the year. That helps the Packers A LOT. Chicago QB Jay Cutler has been back for two games from his injuries. So who wins? Weather should not matter, good or bad. So let’s look at talent. The Bears have more of it (that will play) on both sides of the ball (Green Bay LB Clay Matthews is out again with a broken thumb, HB Eddie Lacy seems unlikely to play, as of now), and they have home field. Is that enough? Maybe not. Cutler has had a reputation for blowing big games, not as bad as Romo, but it is in the conversation. Rodgers has been clutch a lot…but this is the team that got him hurt 8 weeks ago. Is he ready to play? The Packers have no real choice. We know that QB Matt Flynn is a shadow of Rodgers, at best and this is not Detroit he is facing…on the road, no less. Can Rodgers save the Packers and put them in the playoffs? Not without some help. Green Bay has better and more experienced players AND coaches, top to bottom. Somehow, I just cannot take the Bears. Sorry. Packers finish the miracle rally and win and go to the playoffs. Barely.
Green Bay 28 Chicago 27
Philadelphia at Dallas: Sunday Night Football on NBC: Well, this is an interesting one. This game was flexed into the Sunday night slot (fourth and final one for the year), due to its playoff importance. Bottom line….Winner takes all (unless there is a tie, then the Eagles win the division). Loser goes home. Period. Dallas QB Tony Romo is out (for the year) with a serious back injury (he had surgery on Friday). Good luck with that. Even so, Dallas’ injury-ravaged defense seemingly will be no match for the fully healthy, quick strike Eagles’ offense of first-year coach Chip Kelly. QB Nick Foles is playing at a high level and RB LeSean McCoy is in position to win his first rushing title. Oh, and the Eagles defense, which has sucked most of the year, is actually improving and is fully healthy. Only IF the Eagles have a seven turnover day, like the Redskins did at Atlanta two weeks ago AND the Cowboys punch ALL of them in for touchdowns or something close to that, do I see Dallas winning with backup QB Kyle Orton and in essence a backup defense, even at home. The sick part is….something like that could actually happen. I believe it has once or twice. But not this night. Eagles win and go to the playoffs and Dallas is knocked out in a division championship game in Week 17 for the third year in a row to the third different team. Now, THAT is sick!
Philadelphia 30 Dallas 20
Bonus picks: I am giving my picks on the final BCS bowl games in the non-playoff format. I chose about half the schedule last week. As of 1030pm on Saturday, December 28, I am 7-7 on these picks so far (game later tonight and then more on Monday). Below are the remaining games I had not done yet, including the BCS bowls and the BCS National Championship game that will play in about two weeks.
December 30:
Armed Forces Bowl: Congrats to Middle Tennessee State for making this bowl. I didn’t know they were in the FBS (Division I for us old folk). That is real nice. But it is the Armed Forces Bowl. With Navy in it who has serious offense, against a team that is defensively challenged. Seriously, who the hell did you really think I would pick? That is what I thought.
Navy 32 Middle Tennessee State 21
Music City Bowl: Ole Miss cannot score a lot of points of late. Georgia Tech loves to run the ball and has 45 RUSHING touchdowns this year. Any team that scores 3 rushing touchdowns alone a game is a team that is trouble. Another SEC school goes down hard.
Georgia Tech 35 Mississippi 23
Valero Alamo Bowl: Texas has been a hard luck football team for years. A lot of the blame has gone on coach Mack Brown. Now he is quitting after this game. Texas will miss him after he is gone (if they don’t already). Now they get the high-speed and high scoring Oregon Ducks in the bowl game. Oregon apparently doesn’t miss former coach Chip Kelly that much. Both schools were national contenders, both schools choked chances to win their conference. Nothing new there. Oregon has too much speed for the old-school Longhorns, period. Ducks win.
(10) Oregon 38 Texas 27
Holiday Bowl: Another bowl where both teams love to throw and the pass defenses will be rather tired. The over/under on rushing attempts for both teams is 35. Don’t know much about either team, don’t really care. I like lots of passing though. Hope the running backs don’t get bored. Arizona State takes this one late.
Arizona State 40 Texas Tech 35
New Year’s Eve
AdvoCare V100 Bowl: What is up with these crazy named bowls? Seriously? Must be some car care stuff putting this bowl on. Anyway, this bowl will feature the running backs. Boston College has a 2,100 yard running back versus Arizona featuring a back who ran for just over 1,700 yards. Both backs scored 17 times on the ground. I see two more trashed defenses. The trainers will be busy. I am taking the ACC school over the Pac-12 school here.
Boston College 34 Arizona 31
Hyundai Sun Bowl: Virginia Tech of the ACC has the 4th best (total) defense in the nation. Too bad their offense wasn’t nearly as good. UCLA has a dangerous QB who accounted for 31 touchdowns via air and his own feet. Tech unfortunately seems to have issues with dual-threat QBs. Seeing this is a down year for the Hokies, despite crushing Miami during the season, I am taking UCLA in this one.
UCLA 38 Virginia Tech 31
Liberty Bowl: Rice has had a great season. Mississippi State is lucky to make a bowl. Is the SEC the best conference, top to bottom? Are they really that much better than everyone else? No. Let them prove it. Rice wins.
Rice 28 Mississippi State 24
Chick-fil-A Bowl: Duke has had a great year. I barely remembered they still had a football team. Is this game Johnny Manziel’s last college game at Texas A&M? Probably. He would be better served to stay in college one more year, in my opinion, but I know he is gone…for better or worse. Duke pulls the upset on another SEC school.
(24) Duke 30 (21) Texas A &M 28
January 1, 2014
Gator Bowl: Georgia has been snake bit for a while. This is a good team that would be ruling in any other conference. But they are just a contender in the top-heavy SEC. Nebraska understands that well, from their time as top dog team in the 80s and 90s. Now, they are just another Big Ten (really big 15 or whatever..) team (since when?). I am taking Nebraska in a upset.
Nebraska 30 (22) Georgia 28
Rose Bowl: Michigan State was a school overlooked by a lot and thought to be tough on defense but not enough so to beat Ohio State. Look what happened in the Big Ten title game. Stanford is a good team, but not a great one. Hence, they can never seem to win the big one, no matter who is the big-name player or the head coach. Defense wins championships...and big bowl games. Michigan State wins.
(4) Michigan State 27 (5) Stanford 23
Outback Bowl: Iowa is much like Georgia (see above) only in the Big Ten. I love this underdog group. LSU is a tough SEC team, who had a down year by their standards. But they are a good team by all standards. I have to take the Tigers in this one.
(16) LSU 28 Iowa 24
Heart of Dallas Bowl: I guess there has to be a Texas team in a bowl like this. UNLV did well to get in a bowl game. North Texas is a team most folks outside of Texas has never heard of. Let’s see what they can do on a big stage. North Texas in this one.
North Texas 28 UNLV 27
Capital One Bowl: Why is every Big Ten team seemingly matched against a SEC team in these bowl games? Wow. Wisconsin and South Carolina is two more hard-luck teams when it comes to championships. Both teams are good though. But here, got to take South Carolina. Family thing.
(9) South Carolina 31 (19) Wisconsin 24
Fiesta Bowl: These are two up and coming underdog teams. If the upcoming playoff system had 8 or 16 teams, one or both of these teams would be in it, and teams would be scared to face them. Baylor won the Big 12 almost by default because of the Oklahoma State loss earlier that day. UCF upset undefeated Northern Illinois to earn this BCS spot. This might be the best bowl of the entire season. I am taking Baylor in a close one.
(6) Baylor 38 (15) Central Florida 35 (OT)
January 2: Sugar Bowl: Alabama is pissed. The 2 time defending national champions lost their one game on a missed field goal return on the final play in the Iron Bowl. No SEC title game. No national title game. Too bad. Oklahoma gave Baylor the Big 12 title by upsetting in-state rival Oklahoma State…but they got into a BCS bowl game as a result. As much as I want to pick the upset, Alabama is too strong overall. Sorry. Tide rolls.
(3) Alabama 34 (11) Oklahoma 31
January 3, 2014
Cotton Bowl: Two former Big 12 foes meet again. Missouri left the Big 12 for the SEC and had a big impact in year one. Oklahoma State is thinking, if we had beat Oklahoma, maybe we would be fighting for a national title now. Probably not. Good season, but means little if you don’t win the playoff game(s). I am taking Missouri.
(8) Missouri 34 (13) Oklahoma State 30
Orange Bowl: Clemson though they had a shot at a ACC and maybe a national championship. Then they ran into Florida State. Oops. South Carolina schools have such issues in big games, most of the time. Ohio State knows about that. 24-0 under coach Irvin Meyer. Ohio State was on probation in 2012, so no playoffs or national title game. This year, they had to win one more game to (probably) be in the national title game. But Michigan State, who they did not face in the regular season got them. Perhaps if they had more adversity on that road….who knows? Ohio State plays too many cupcakes. It caught up with them in the Big Ten title game. They will find out that there are some great teams other than in the Big Ten. Clemson wins.
(12) Clemson 30 (7) Ohio State 27
January 4: Compass Bowl: Why is this unimportant bowl being played so late? No idea. This is another offensive game. Poor defense. Houston is an offensive machine. Defense…not so much. Vanderbilt will not know what hit them. Ouch.
Houston 45 Vanderbilt 35
January 5: GoDaddy Bowl: What? I won’t say what I think on this bowl…lol. Arkansas State? They and the Sun Belt are in the FBS? Okay. Ball State is a good team. No one knows much about either team and neither do I. Nor do I care. I am taking Ball State.
Ball State 30 Arkansas State 28
January 6, 2014: The Final (pre-playoff) BCS National Championship Game:
Auburn is trying to win the seventh straight national title for the SEC.
Some think Auburn won the national title by beating Alabama in the Iron Bowl. The
SEC title game was just another win. Wrong. Florida State is number 1 for a
reason. The ACC is no cupcake conference. In the previous seven years, the SEC
has either had another SEC school or an inferior conference champ from the Big
12, Big Ten or Pac-10 to beat in the title game. Florida State played in the
first three BCS title games, winning the middle appearance (the only ACC team
to play in this game). No, Miami and Virginia Tech were still in the Big East
when they played for the title. No ACC school has been back until now. This team
is led by a freshman QB who is the second freshman to win the Heisman trophy.
They score like a SEC team. But they beat top-5 and top-20 teams to get here
(Miami, Clemson, Duke in the ACC title game). Auburn beat Alabama, but lost to
LSU. SEC football is tough, but they are not all that. If they were, Alabama
would be in this game and/or would still be undefeated. Bottom line, a team
that did not win their conference does not deserve a chance at a national
title. Period. So Alabama and Ohio State fans should shut up NOW. Bottom line:
Auburn is good. Florida State is better. National title returns to the ACC…not
the overrated SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 or even Notre Dame. As it should be. Florida
State wins.
(1)
Florida State 37 (2) Auburn 30
Think my picks suck? Send me a reply and tell me why! Good luck to everyone.
NFL picks: 122-115-1 after 15 weeks; 35-28 on bonus picks; Total: 157-143-1 overall (as of December 28).
Think my picks suck? Send me a reply and tell me why! Good luck to everyone.
NFL picks: 122-115-1 after 15 weeks; 35-28 on bonus picks; Total: 157-143-1 overall (as of December 28).
