My picks for Week 14 of the NFL season (based on my thoughts, my research and what I think ONLY!):
Disclamer: These are my picks and opinions only. If you make picks and/or bet money, favors or whatever based on what is listed below with whomever or wherever, that is on you. If you win, great! Let me know (or even send me a small cut of the profits...lol!) If not, don't bitch. These picks does have 50/50 odds. Better than the lottery. If some team chokes a game due to..whatever...not my fault. I will be mad too. Maybe!
Disclaimer done: Let the games begin!
Not a good week on picks (6-10). I think I will be better this week. I am adding picks on this week’s college championship round games. I will pick Army-Navy next week (anyone who knows me should know who I will pick!).
This will be a crazy weekend, starting Thursday night! Enjoy!
If you are affected (or have been already and/or are about to be (AGAIN!)) by the current storms crossing the country now and/or this weekend, be safe and careful and we will all be thinking of you.
Starting this week, I will list the playoff picture and chances for post season play for each remaining team as I see it. Fantasy football players, be sure to double check your leagues so that all of your spots are covered!
For many fantasy leagues, the playoffs start NOW (or in the next two weeks)! Good luck to everyone!
Week 13 Games:
Houston at Jacksonville: Thursday night on NFL Network: This will be a game that no one cares about, other than fans of each team and fantasy football players who have players in this game. Houston’s epic drop (10 straight losses) after opening 2-0 (barely) is shocking. Not quite Detroit 0-16 shocking, but getting close to the Carolina 1-15 (15 straight losses) shocking. I mentioned earlier in the season, warning Houston that they had better get it together before the entire AFC, including these Jaguars pass them by. As of today, it has happened. This is a pride game. We have laughed at Jacksonville (and Tampa Bay) all year as the losses mounted to 0-8. What do we say about a team that has lost 10 straight, who was a playoff team very recently? Sad. Houston may only need to lose this game and one more to clinch that Number One selection in the draft that seemed to be a tussle between the Bucs and the Jags 4-6 weeks ago. Unfortunately, for all three teams, they are so weak all-around that one top pick is not enough to get some real help. But that discussion is more due for next year. As for this game, sorry, Houston. I have to go with the home team. I don’t think Houston will lose 14 straight, but 11 straight? Yes.
Jacksonville 27 Houston 24
Detroit at Philadelphia: This is a game of division leaders! Really? Yes, really! Detroit has a 1 game lead (and the ultimate tiebreaker, too!) over Chicago and 1.5 games over Green Bay in the NFC North. Philadelphia is STILL tied with Dallas in the NFC East, 2 games ahead of the Giants. Philadelphia wins the division if: 1)they win 1 more games than Dallas of these last 4 OR 2) they win the final week showdown at Dallas if the teams are still tied that week. Possible. No sure thing. The Lions only need two wins and/or one more loss by Chicago and Green Bay to clinch their first division title in a LONG time. Plus they have ultimate tiebreaker over Dallas already. Win this game and the Lions have such over the Eagles too, which assures them of no lower than a 3 seed. Here is the keys: Can the Eagles run that high-tempo offense of coach Chip Kelly in cold weather? Can Detroit win outside in the cold? It might be really nasty in Philly this Sunday, weather-wise. But I am not sure the Eagles defense can stop HBs Reggie Bush AND Joique Bell AND WR Calvin Johnson. Pray for snow to slow the Lions down. But I will take Detroit. I have a good feeling here. But I am not expecting a lot of points, especially if there is freezing rain or worse on Sunday.
Detroit 24 Philadelphia 21
Oakland at the New York Jets: Both teams have had a tough year, but both are hanging on to some playoff hope. This is an elimination game. The loser is out of the playoffs, the winner still is hanging on, especially if it is Oakland, who has some tiebreakers in their favor if they run the table and Baltimore and Tennessee and Miami falter. The Jets are suddenly again looking like the broken down car that they were in preseason. You cannot blame it all on the rookie QB Geno Smith. That is unfair. Call it bad luck or bad calls by coach Rex Ryan or getting the wrong teams at the wrong times. Oakland knows a lot about that. Oakland looks somewhat like the Jets, except for being much younger and having had more competitive games across the board. Of course, I am taking Oakland. If nothing else, it keeps the AFC playoff race interesting!
Oakland 23 New York Jets 17
Minnesota at Baltimore: The Ravens must win to not only stay within two games of the Bengals in the AFC North, but to also hang on to the 2nd and final AFC wildcard spot, being tied with Miami and half of the conference within two games of them both. Minnesota is playing spoiler, having seemingly already done that to Green Bay (tie) and now Chicago (win). Minnesota HB Adrian Peterson is not on the pace he was last year when he broke 2,000 yards rushing, but he still has a good shot at a rare third NFL rushing title. His 211 rushing yards last week including some tough yards to set up the game winning FG in overtime was big against the Bears. The defending world champs are another matter. Baltimore may be finally hitting a stride as the season wears down, though the running game with HB Ray Rice is still a shadow of its normal self (mostly NOT Rice’s fault). With nothing to lose, Minnesota is a big trap game for the Ravens who need to just win out to get in the playoffs in some form. These final four games are, in essence, playoff games for the Ravens. Let’s see if they play them accordingly
Baltimore 29 Minnesota 27
Kansas City at Washington: UGH. The Redskins are officially out of the playoffs, so now they can be spoilers. Let’s see how well they can do that! The Chiefs blew TWO games against Denver, plus a home game to the Chargers in the last three weeks. So to win the division now…four KC wins, 2 (or more) Denver losses. Good luck with that. Hence, the Chiefs are all but locked into the 5 seed now with the closest team to them 3 games back. Really. The Chiefs will clinch A playoff spot with a win here or do it next week. Win or lose. This is a trap game for KC, but staying healthy may be more important than winning the game…unless Denver loses (Sorry. Broncos play late at home). KC has to win to help division pride against the AFC West...right? Never mind. Okay, I will take the home team…barely.
Washington 23 Kansas City 20 (OT)
Indianapolis at Cincinnati: This game will be weird. The Colts are better than we thought they were, but they are far from a complete team. They will clinch the AFC South title shortly, but their recent propensity for VERY slow starts has bit them HARD. This team should have two or fewer losses right now. They are having slow starts and two inexplicable blowout losses to St Louis and Arizona, plus the early losses to San Diego and Miami hurt now. Without two or three of those losses, the Colts might have been in position for the 1 seed in the AFC now, especially being the ONLY team to beat BOTH current top seeds (Seattle and Denver) though both were at home. Instead they are fighting for the 3 seed with these Bengals. The loser of this game is likely the 4 seed and staring at hosting Kansas City (or Denver if they choke the division title) in the wild-card round. Remember, these Colts still have to go to KC in their final road game in two weeks. The Bengals, also a playoff team last year, know they must win 2 or 3 games to clinch the division and maybe better than a 4 seed. The Ravens are still 2 games back and another loss by the Bengals will make the final game showdown with the Ravens bigger if the Ravens win out, since they have the tiebreaker for now. Having the final three of four games at home helps the Bengals, but not when the road game is Pittsburgh (next week), and Adrian Peterson and the Vikings in town in two weeks before Baltimore comes to finish the regular season. First things first. Colts QB Andrew Luck is damn good. The defense is better than it has been in recent years. But you need a real running game in cold-weather December/January games. I’m sorry, but Trent Richardson and Donald Brown doesn’t cut it for me. Will Giovanni Bernard and BenJarvis Green-Ellis be better in the cold for Cincinnati? I think so, but we will see. I have to take the Bengals due to the cold. If it is snowy too (possible), this will be a fun game to watch…on TV.
Cincinnati 28 Indianapolis 20
Miami at Pittsburgh: Okay, this will be an interesting game. This is also an elimination game. Pittsburgh is all but done and Miami is tied with the Ravens for the final playoff spot in the AFC with seemingly half the conference with 2 games of them, including these Steelers. Literally. Simple theme. Warm weather team going into Pittsburgh in December. Not good. Remember, kicking the ball is tough at Heinz Field, regardless of the weather. Pittsburgh takes pride in winning at home in the cold. Unless there is a big warm spell by Sunday, I cannot see Miami winning this one, and they are not superior to the Steelers in overall talent, anyway. Miami won’t be done if they lose, but this loss would hurt A LOT unless the Ravens lose too. Unfortunately, there will still be other teams in the hunt after this week too. Steelers lose and they will be officially done with no tiebreakers and too many teams to jump in the standings. I am taking the home team, though I will be surprised if the score gets this high, if it is cold and rainy/snowy as I think it will be.
Pittsburgh 27 Miami 24
St. Louis at Arizona: This is apparently a recurring theme this week. This is a playoff elimination game. These two NFC West rivals know that Seattle has (virtually) won the division and are in the playoffs (clinching such with the blowout home win over New Orleans on MNF). They also know that the winner (especially Arizona) stays in the NFC wild-card race for at least one more week. The loser is done (especially if it is the Rams). Both teams seem to have some real defense. Offense….not so much…not right now. These teams are tough at home, but not as much on the road, even in another dome. The Rams have been really playing tough of late, nearly upsetting Seattle and so on. But they have too many injuries and so on to overcome and steal a playoff berth. Arizona is at home and has a (declining but) legit QB and WR and a little running game. Got to take the home team and keep the Cardinals in the playoff hunt for at least one more week.
Arizona 24 St. Louis 21
New York Giants at San Diego: The Chargers are hanging on in the AFC playoff race by little more than a fingernail, for now. They must win out and get help to get in (which may happen), but having many home games coming to the end definitely helps, but they could have won last week. The Giants are STILL only 2 games back in their division, but time has just about run out. I just cannot see Philadelphia AND Dallas losing 3 of their last 4 (final game against each other) to give the Giants a chance if they win out (unlikely). San Diego QB Phillip Rivers is on fire of late, and I can’t go against him at home. Plus, you have seen the train wreck that is the Giants offense. Chargers win to stay alive, especially if the Ravens and Dolphins both lose (do not hold your breath, but it could happen).
San Diego 28 New York Giants 24
Buffalo at Tampa Bay: This is another of those no-one cares games. Buffalo let one get away in Toronto with the overtime loss to Atlanta. Tampa has looked better after starting 0-8, but they may be playing (or have already) played their way out of a top 5 2014 draft pick. Rookie Bills QB EJ Manuel will get a test out the rugged Tampa defense and CB Darrelle Revis. Learn well, since you won’t see them again for four years and Revis may be in retired or in another uniform by then. Tampa has more momentum than the Bills of late. Let’s take the home team in a tight one.
Tampa Bay 20 Buffalo 17 (OT)
Cleveland at New England: Tom Brady and the Patriots are home after having a hard time with the weakened Texans and upsetting the Broncos a couple of weeks ago. They cannot relax with Cincinnati and Indianapolis on their heels for a high AFC playoff seed and knowing that one more Denver loss can give NE the top seed. Cleveland still has a slim playoff shot, but with both QBs Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell both dealing with concussions, and, as of now, both possibly unable to play this game, Cleveland may have to get someone off the street to start. Even if one of them was starting (and I don't know as of Thursday afternoon), this is a recipe for disaster, regardless of the weather. Brady and the Pats will not blow this game AT HOME. Patriots win again, Cleveland will be eliminated from serious playoff consideration.
New England 31 Cleveland 23
Atlanta at Green Bay: This game was supposed to be a big marquee game when the schedule came out in April. Injuries and other things can do a lot to those ideas. Atlanta is playing for pride now and may be a few more losses (and a few Houston, Jacksonville and Washington wins) from the Number 1 pick in the 2014 draft. This is a hard fall for a team that hosted the NFC championship last year. Injuries will do that to you. Green Bay knows a lot about that. With all-world QB Aaron Rodgers out, the Packers have had a tie with the Vikings, and losing, including to the Lions on Thanksgiving. That loss and the tie before that may have killed the Packers’ playoff hopes, even if Rodgers plays this week, which is unknown as I write this. Like Chicago, even if Green Bay wins, too little too late. It will be cold at Lambeau Field, so I will take the Packers. I will be more interested to see if the Falcons can get TE Tony Gonzalez to return for one more year. I doubt it, and I know he doesn’t want to finish his career like this, but either way, we will see him in Canton possibly before the end of this decade (or shortly thereafter). That much, I can guarantee.
Green Bay 24 Atlanta 17
Seattle at San Francisco: This is now a game of major importance for the Niners. Seriously. The Niners are barely hanging on the final NFC playoff spot. They do trail NFC South co-leaders Carolina and New Orleans by a game, but San Francisco loses in the tiebreaker to BOTH of them since they lost to both of them earlier. The Seahawks only need to win or tie this game and/or another SF loss later to clinch the division. To keep hope alive, the Niners must win (tie means nothing) and hope Seattle blows the final 3 games (unlikely). I sense a let down from Seattle after Monday’s blowout home win over the Saints. This team is not as formidable on the road, but just as lucky(so far). This game means little to Seattle other than bragging rights, since the Seahawks only need one, maybe two more wins to clinch home-field and they have beaten virtually every NFC contender already. Niners WR Michael Crabtree is back too, which will help. SF wins the game. Seattle clinches the top NFC playoff seed next week, win or lose.
San Francisco 27 Seattle 21
Tennessee at Denver: Denver now has full control over the AFC West after winning in Kansas City on Sunday. However, they must still win out to clinch the top playoff seed since they did lose to New England and Indianapolis. The Titans are one out of the 2nd wildcard, but must win out and get help to get in. I am not convinced the Titans could do much if they got in, much less in this one. But they do have a good defense and one wrong hit on Denver QB Peyton Manning changes everything. If that one hit happens, it probably won’t be here. Right? Sorry, Titans. That Denver offense will be too much for your defense and this offense cannot and will not exploit the shaky Denver defense enough to matter, especially not in Denver. Denver wins.
Denver 31 Tennessee 24
Carolina at New Orleans: Sunday Night Football on NBC: Well, this is an interesting one. This game is for the NFC South lead. Carolina is the league’s hottest team (no not 11-1 Seattle) with 8 straight wins to catch up with the Saints at the perfect time. These Saints are deadly at home and seemed to be tough on the road, even in cooler weather where they nearly beat New England. But the Saints were bombed at Seattle 34-7 on MNF. Not a good time for that. The only advantage the Saints have now is only one conference loss versus the Panthers’ two (both did lose to Seattle, however). This game and the rematch in Charlotte in two weeks mean everything to both teams. Win or lose, I feel safe in believing both teams making the playoffs. However, being the division winner (and maybe two seed with a week off), having their first playoff game at home and possibly being sure to NOT have to face the Seahawks until the NFC Championship is huge. Be the wildcard, knowing that you must win THREE road games to get to the Super Bowl is tough. But it can be done, since many of the recent Super Bowl winners, like the Steelers a few years ago did just that. Being a top seed doesn’t assure you playoff success, but it (usually) helps. Honestly, if Carolina does not win this division, I would not want to be the division winner to host them in the wild-card round. Or possibly the Saints either. I would say the Saints will get it done in the SuperDome, but Seattle carved up the Saints defense. Carolina has a QB in Cam Newton who may be even more dangerous all around than Seattle’s Russell Wilson, and a running game and a defense that may be as good and/or better than Seattle’s. And they have the win streak. I am taking Carolina in a upset, but next week’s games will decide how big the rematch in Carolina in two weeks (will not be flexed to Sunday night) will be (especially figuring one or both should have clinched some sort of playoff berth by then).
Carolina 28 New Orleans 27
Monday Night Football on ESPN. Note the 830pm start time.
Dallas at Chicago: This is NOT the best and most important game of the season on MNF. This is still an important game for several reasons. The Bears are barely hanging on to a playoff shot and must run the table to possibly get in (better shot at NFC North title than a wild-card). Dallas does still have the tie-breaker over Philadelphia, but also need to run the table to get in the playoffs (NFC East), since I don’t think Dallas will get a wild-card berth or Carolina/New Orleans and/or the Niners if they don’t win the division. Both teams in ways are hoping Detroit loses Sunday, but such would helps Chicago more than Dallas, at least right now. Dallas got the win on Thanksgiving and has the benefit of a lot of extra days to recover and prepare. But Chicago is tough at home and one can expect it will be cold and windy (or worse) for this December night game. Dallas is too shaky (and beat up with injuries) for my liking, and even so, I don’t like their odds in a cold-weather outdoor road game. Bears win, but unless Detroit loses this week and 1-2 of the final 3 games, it may be too little, too late.
Chicago 27 Dallas 21
Bonus picks:
College Football Conference Championship Games
1.
19th ranked Louisville wins over Cincinnati
(Thursday)
2.
14th ranked and undefeated Northern Illinois
wins over Bowling Green and wins BCS berth. (Friday). They will NOT be given a chance
to play for National Championship even if they win and finish undefeated and
undefeated 1 and 2 Florida State and Ohio State BOTH lose.
Saturday games:
3.
3rd ranked Auburn beats 5th
ranked Missouri for SEC title and BCS berth.
4.
6th ranked Oklahoma State wins over 17th
ranked Oklahoma for Big 12 title.
5.
16th ranked Central Florida wins over SMU.
6.
Current top-ranked and undefeated Florida State wins
over 20th ranked Duke for the ACC title and a berth in the final non-playoff BCS National Championship game. QB Jameis Winston will not be charged on sexual assault charges, as of Thursday afternoon, so barring injury, he will be playing Saturday.
7.
Number 10 Michigan State upsets 2nd ranked
and undefeated Ohio State for Big Ten title and BCS berth. Ohio State probably
still gets BCS berth.
8.
Marshall wins over Rice.
9.
Connecticut upsets Memphis.
10. South
Florida wins over Rutgers.
11. Utah
State upsets 23rd ranked Fresno State.
Think
my picks suck? Send me a reply and tell me why! Good luck to everyone.
NFL
picks: 99-90-1 after 13 weeks; 19-14 on bonus picks; Total: 118-104-1 overall
(as of December 5).
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