My picks for Week 15 of the NFL season (based on my thoughts, my research and what I think ONLY!):
Disclamer: These are my picks and opinions only. If you make picks and/or bet money, favors or whatever based on what is listed below with whomever or wherever, that is on you. If you win, great! Let me know (or even send me a small cut of the profits...lol!) If not, don't bitch. These picks does have 50/50 odds. Better than the lottery. If some team chokes a game due to..whatever...not my fault. I will be mad too. Maybe!
Disclaimer done: Let the games begin!
This week was better on picks (11-5), but the bonus picks were so-so. Shorter list this week but still big picks. Let’s see how I do. This will be a crazy weekend, starting Thursday night! Enjoy!
If you are affected (or have been already and/or are about to be (AGAIN!)) by the current storms crossing the country now and/or this weekend, be safe and careful and we will all be thinking of you.
For many fantasy leagues, the playoffs are ongoing NOW! Good luck to everyone!
Week 15 Games:
San Diego at Denver: Thursday night on NFL Network: This will be a game that no one cares much about, other than fans of each team and fantasy football players who have players in this game. San Diego must win to keep their shaky playoff hopes alive. Denver must win to stay ahead of New England for the top AFC playoff seed and not give KC hope for stealing the AFC West away. QB Peyton Manning gets another chance to play out in the (really) cold, before the playoffs in Denver’s final regular season playoff game. San Diego QB Phillip Rivers is really hot right now, but that will not be enough, even against a shaky Denver defense. Broncos win.
Denver 27 San Diego 24
Chicago at Cleveland: This is a must win for the Bears. They are again tied with Detroit for the NFC North lead, but Green Bay is right behind them both. Chicago MUST win the division outright to make the playoffs. Period. QB Jay Cutler returns to play instead of hot backup Josh McCown. Mistake. Cleveland is playing for pride, but I warn you now: Cleveland will be tougher in 2014 if they draft well in May, especially with that extra first round pick they have (Colts). Mark my words. Can the Bears win this one? Yes, but I don’t think Cutler is the right QB to do it, on the road against a team that almost took out the Patriots in Foxboro. Plus, it may snow too. Snow in Cleveland is a bit different than snow in Chicago. Browns win in a minor upset.
Cleveland 24 Chicago 21
Houston at Indianapolis: : Both teams have had a tough year, but the Colts are relaxed, having clinched the AFC South and knowing they will have at least one home playoff game. Houston has lost 11 straight and their coach was fired a week ago after losing (for the second time this year) to the Jaguars, who started 0-8. Interim coach Wade Phillips wants the permanent job, but needs 2 or 3 wins to possibly get it. If he and his Texans can take advantage of the slow starts the Colts have been doing of late and not let them back in it, a win may happen here. If not…Colts win easily. Enjoy the first overall pick, Houston. But trade it for more picks. You need depth and bodies, plural. A new QB alone will NOT help you. Colts could move up but not fall any further, hence they don’t care but so much. Texans in a big upset.
Houston 23 Indianapolis 21
New England at Miami: The Patriots clinch the AFC East title with a win. Okay. But they lost TE Rob Gronkowski for the year with a nasty knee injury. Miami must win out and pray Baltimore loses at least once to sneak into the playoffs. NE knows that if Denver stumbles, the Patriots can be the top AFC seed. But if NE stumbles, they may fall to the 3 seed behind Cincinnati. NE is tough as long as QB Tom Brady is upright, as he proved again last week against the Browns. NE wins, but not so easily.
New England 29 Miami 27
Washington at Atlanta: UGH. The Redskins AND Falcons are officially out of the playoffs, which few expected when the season started. Injuries will do that to you. Unfortunately, the Redskins have gone into WTF mode which is where Houston, another 2012 playoff team is now and (formerly) 0-8 Jacksonville and Tampa Bay was at a few weeks ago...right? QB Kirk Cousins is the new Redskins starter with Robert Griffin III shut down for the season. Obviously, the Redskins did not learn from the Washington Nationals about assuming things. Bad move, but I will discuss it more in a separate blog. Okay, I will take the home team…barely. Both defenses suck so points might still be scored in the Georgia Dome. I might actually skip watching this game on my NFL Sunday Ticket Max. Never thought I would say that.
Atlanta 27 Washington 23
Philadelphia at Minnesota: This game will be weird. The Eagles lead the NFC Least by a game over Dallas. They had better win this over a decimated Vikings team in the dome. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson is looking unlikely to play, and his backup, Toby Gerhart is iffy too. Doesn’t matter. If Philly blows this game, they deserve to lose the division to Dallas. Eagles, DO NOT blow the gift the Bears gave you on Monday night. Eagles win.
Philadelphia 28 Minnesota 24
New Orleans at St. Louis: The Saints got a big win over Carolina at home last week. The rematch is in Charlotte next week, but first, a road game in a dome. The Rams are basically done for the playoffs, but they are turning the corner, and they have a tough D…now! The Saints will win, but it will not be easy. Rams, don’t blow that top 5 pick you are getting from the Redskins. Beware St. Louis in 2014. Mark my words!
New Orleans 29 St. Louis 21
New York Jets at Carolina: For Carolina, see above. Carolina must win the rematch next week, but they need this one too. The Jets are basically done for the playoffs too, but they will fight. Maybe. The Carolina D will be too much for rookie QB Geno Smith or whoever starts for New York. Last week was an aberration. NO one stops the Saints for 60 minutes in the SuperDome. Carolina wins.
Carolina 28 New York Jets 24
Buffalo at Jacksonville: This is another of those no-one cares games. Buffalo flies to Florida again to face the other formerly 0-8 team, Jacksonville. Rookie Bills QB EJ Manuel may do a little better this week, but the Jags will somehow win again, even without injured RB Maurice Jones-Drew. Not that anyone cares. Let’s take the home team in a tight one.
Jacksonville 20 Buffalo 17 (OT)
San Francisco at Tampa Bay: The Niners got by Seattle at home last week. But they must keep winning to clinch a wild-card spot. Remember, they have no tie-breaker against either New Orleans or Carolina! Tampa looks better after the 0-8 start, but they will not be able to stop the Niners on offense or defense. Too many weapons. Sorry. Niners win again.
San Francisco 28 Tampa Bay 23
Green Bay at Dallas: This game was supposed to be a big marquee game when the schedule came out in April. Injuries and other things can do a lot to those ideas. Green Bay is a half game out of the NFC North lead and Dallas trails Philly by 1 game with the rematch in 2 weeks in Dallas, winner takes all. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is out again…not good. Dallas QB Tony Romo has a chance to light these hurting Packers up. Too bad he won’t…again. But ultimately, the damaged Dallas defense will fold again. Sorry. Green Bay, don’t tie again.
Green Bay 24 Dallas 21 (OT)
Arizona at Tennessee: Arizona must win to keep slimming wild-card hopes alive. The Titans are done, especially since the Colts clinched the South last week. Few people will be watching, true. But I think BOTH teams will be stronger and will surprise a lot of folk next year. Watch. I think Arizona will win a rare outdoor road game….as long as it doesn’t snow….and Titans RB Chris Johnson does not run for 200 yards…lol.
Arizona 27 Tennessee 21
Kansas City at Oakland: Denver now has full control over the AFC West. But KC still has hope and will clinch a wild-card berth with another win. Oakland is beat and injured, but they are not nearly as bad as the Redskins and a few other teams…lol. KC cannot overlook the Raiders, but they will. SD and Pittsburgh wishes they hadn’t. Big mistake. Raiders will upset them, too. And next year…..beware the Silver and Black!!!!!!
Oakland 31 Kansas City 27
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: Sunday Night Football on NBC: Well, this is an interesting one. This game is for the AFC North title. Cincinnati wins and they all but clinch the division, especially if the Ravens lose in Detroit on Monday (see below). Pittsburgh is playing for pride, but winning in Pittsburgh in December is TOUGH!!!!! I am not convinced the Bengals are ready for that yet. Steelers win in an upset. Might be another snow game in the cold???
Pittsburgh 28 Cincinnati 27
Monday Night Football on ESPN. Note the 830pm start time.
Baltimore at Detroit: This is NOT the best and most important game of the season on MNF. This is still an important game for several reasons. The Lions need to win out to win the NFC North and hold off Chicago and Green Bay. But if they both lose on Sunday, the Lions get some breathing room, especially since Green Bay goes to Chicago for the season finale in two weeks. The Ravens must win out to win the second AFC wildcard. However, doing so may give the Ravens the AFC North title instead, IF and only IF, Cincinnati loses this week and next before their showdown in Cincinnati in the season finale. Baltimore is 1-5 on the road, but they must have this one. Detroit is hell to deal with at home, but Baltimore has the defense to slow down Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and the Lions offense. Can the Baltimore offense score enough to win? Just barely. I am taking the Ravens in a upset.
Baltimore 30 Detroit 26
AFC Playoff Standings:
Teams that are eliminated: Houston (2-11), Buffalo (4-9)
Teams still alive mathematically, but will be eliminated after this week:
Cleveland (4-9), Jacksonville (4-9), Oakland (4-9), Pittsburgh (5-8) and Tennessee (5-8).
Teams that have clinched a berth:
Denver (10-3): AFC West leader, clinched wild-card for now.
Indianapolis (8-5): AFC South champ, current 4 seed (cannot be any worse); unlikely to move up.
Teams likely to be in the playoffs:
New England (10-3): AFC East leader, clinches division with win over Miami; current 2 seed, will win top seed if they finish in a tie with Denver or better
Cincinnati (9-4): AFC North leader, clinches division with win and/or Baltimore loss or tie, current 3 seed, moves up to two seed if they finish in a tie with NE.
Kansas City(10-3): 2nd in West; current 5 seed; clinches wild card with next win/tie.
The Pack:
Baltimore (7-6): 2nd in North, current 6 seed by tiebreaker: Win out and will be in playoffs (probably as wild card). Wins North if Baltimore wins out and Cincinnati loses out.
Miami (7-6): 2nd in East, tied for 6 seed with Baltimore. Must win out and Baltimore loses or ties once more to win wild-card berth.
San Diego (6-7): 3rd in West, 1 game and tiebreaker out of 6 seed. Must win out and get help to get in playoffs.
New York Jets (6-7): 3rd in East 1 game and tiebreakers out of 6 seed. Must win out and get a lot of help to get in playoffs.
NFC Playoff Standings:
Teams that are eliminated: Washington (3-10), Atlanta (3-10), Minnesota (3-9-1), Tampa Bay (4-9), St Louis (5-8), New York Giants (5-8)
Teams that have clinched a berth:
Seattle (10-3): NFC West leader, clinched wild-card for now. Will clinch division and NFC top seed with next win.
Teams likely to be in the playoffs:
New Orleans (10-3): NFC South leader, clinches division with 2 wins or Carolina losses, current 2 seed; will win top seed ONLY if they win the division AND finish with a better record than Seattle.
Carolina (9-4): 2nd in South, current 5 seed, clinches division ONLY if they win out and New Orleans loses 2 games; will win top seed ONLY if they win the division AND finish with a better record than Seattle.
San Francisco (9-4): 2nd in West: current 6 seed by 1 game over Arizona. Wins wild card with 2 more wins. Wins West ONLY if they win out AND Seattle loses final 3 games.
The Pack:
Philadelphia (8-5): East leader, 1 game lead over Dallas. current 3 seed. Wins division with 2 wins and/or Dallas losses. Has tiebreaker over Detroit for 3 seed. Clinches such with 2 or 3 wins or finishes in tie with Detroit IF they win the North.
Detroit (7-6): North co-leader, but has tiebreaker over Chicago AND Dallas (but not Philadelphia), 1/2 game lead over Green Bay. Wins division with 2 wins and/or next Chicago and GB loss or tie. North winner is likely 4 seed.
Chicago (7-6): North co-leader, but has NO tiebreaker over Detroit; 1/2 game lead over Green Bay. Wins division with 3 wins and 1-2 Detroit and GB losses or ties.
Green Bay (6-6-1): 3rd in North, 1/2 game behind Detroit and Chicago; wins division if they win out and Detroit and Chicago BOTH lose at least 1 game each.
Arizona (8-5): 3rd in West, 1 game behind SF for 2nd wild-card. Must win out (including over SF in final game) and SF and/or Carolina loses 2 of final 3 to get wild-card.
Bonus picks:
I went 6-5 with my college picks next week. Okay. So here are a couple of picks for this week.
College football:
1.
Navy will beat Army for the 12th straight time,
but it will be close again.
2.
Florida State QB Jameis Winston will be the second
(consecutive) freshman (ever) to win the Heisman trophy on Saturday. Last year’s
winner, (then-freshman) Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel will finish in
the top 5.
John Cena (World Heavyweight champion) will defeat Randy Orton (WWE champion) in the WWE championship reunification match, but not without controversy.
Think my picks suck? Send me a reply and tell me why! Good luck to everyone.
NFL picks: 110-95-1 after 13 weeks; 25-19 on bonus picks; Total: 135-114-1 overall (as of December 12).
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