2016 NFL Picks Week Seven...and the Chase for the Sprint Cup reaches...TALLEDEGA!!!!

Last Week:


Season:

Teams on Bye this week:

1. Dallas (5-1):


2. Carolina (1-5):




Damn,.....we have a London game this week AND next week, too? Crazy! Fantasy football people, go fix your lineups for Sunday tonight! Don't wait until Saturday or early Sunday morning!

Thursday Night Football on CBS/NFL Network/Twitter:
Chicago at Green Bay: We all might have hoped that this game would mean more when the schedule was released 6 months ago. But those of us who did so were fooling ourselves. Outside of Chicago, how many are really surprised that the Bears suck? How many are surprised that starter QB Jay Cutler is out injured (or just playing bad)? Right. But most of us, especially those of us who play fantasy football ARE shocked that 1) Green Bay is struggling 2) is NOT leading the NFC North and 3) Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is playing like (bleep). This is real football and crazy stuff is what the NFL wants to make games more suspenseful. Whatever.

Lesson from ME: the 8-time fantasy football CHAMPION: ALWAYS draft NO FEWER than two good to great players at EVERY position in the draft if you can no matter WHAT..even team defenses/special teams.....if you want a better chance to make, much less make your league's playoffs. This is NOT JUST because every team must take a bye week..but it is because great players can have a bad week (or several). One bad week can cost you a high playoff seed...several bad weeks can cost you the entire season...especially at QB. You think I am wrong? How many titles have you won doing that BS?  Luck matters..but using brains matters too. End of lesson.

Now, Green Bay is in deep bleep. Down two games (really 3 games) to undefeated Minnesota, the Packers cannot lose any more ground, especially to a pathetic Bears team...much less at Lambeau Field. Minnesota is no sure thing to win at Philadelphia on Sunday, but if they do...that makes this game even more important. I am not sure what will get Rodgers going like the Rodgers we fans have come to expect in the last 5-6 years including their championship year a few years ago. But the comeback will start tonight against a weak Bears team...or else. Can the Bears cause "or else"? If they are feeding off the energy of the Cubs in a dogfight in the NLCS back in Chicago...maybe.

Who wins? Positive energy or not, these Bears just don't have the horses to score on the Packers defense. They surely cannot stop the Packers offense...if they are playing well. However, the loss of lead RB Eddie Lacy (ankle-IR) today, along with backup James Stark out recovering from surgery, Green Bay has no running game, even with trading for Chiefs RB Knile Davis earlier in the week and promoting a RB from the practice squad. A team with a one-dimensional offense is not good...even against a inferior opponent at home. A team with a shaky passing game is even worse. I really hope Rodgers does well tonight, but I fear a upset. If Green Bay loses anyone else to injury for any length of time, especially Rodgers and/or WRs Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb (who may have to play some halfback, too!)...season may be over. Green Bay wins...but not by much.

Green Bay 28 Chicago 24

Sunday's Games:
International Series Game on NFL Network:
New York Giants at Los Angeles from Twickenham Stadium in London:
    This is a pivotal game for both teams as teams fight for playoff position. Both teams are 3-3 and need this win. The loser will be really in trouble as far as a wild-card spot and likely could be done as far as a division title is concerned. The Rams looked like world beaters for a short while but reality may have set in for this team, but that rugged defense is still there. QB Case Keenum has shown flashes of being a competent quarterback while top overall pick QB Jared Goff continues to watch and learn from the bench as others in his QB class flourish and set rookie records for their teams and may already be more than halfway to their first playoff appearances. Luck of the draw. The Giants are dangerous with QB Eli Manning and emotional but scary brilliant WR Odell Beckham, Jr., but injuries and mistakes continue to threaten this team's chances for any playoff spot as they are almost too far behind Dallas already to allow their Week 1 win in Dallas to mean anything later. This may be the best London game of the season...but that is NOT saying much.

Who wins? The Rams are a work in progress...and the defense can play. But you have to go with the more experienced and explosive team with the game on a serious neutral field. If no one (else) gets hurt in this one, the Giants will prevail simply since the Rams cannot score easily enough to keep up. Giants win.

New York Giants 33 Los Angeles 24


Cleveland at Cincinnati: The Browns continue to march toward 0-16..lol. They travel to Cincinnati where the Bengals don't look that good. They must win to stay in the AFC wild-card race as they hope that Baltimore and Pittsburgh (without Big Ben) will continue to fall back to them in the AFC North race. The Bengals should win this game, especially at home...but this is also the definition of a trap game.  Oh my.

Who wins? Ugh. Do we care? Not really..lol. Bottom line, the Browns have nothing to lose other than risk their path to the first overall pick in the draft. I sense a upset here. I will take the Browns, since this will be almost as big a upset as Penn State over 2nd ranked Ohio State last night..lol.

Cleveland 30 Cincinnati 27


New Orleans at Kansas City: This game can be a major air show. KC QB Alex Smith is not known for huge passing days, but he could get some serious yards against a weak Saints defense. On the other side, the KC defense will have a hard time stopping future Hall of Fame Saints QB Drew Brees as well. This could be interesting. Both teams are still in their division race, but need this win. The loser of this game will be in deep trouble as far as making the playoffs is concerned, especially if it is the Saints.

Who wins? This will be a shootout, but the Chiefs are usually tougher at home than the Saints are away from their dome. But Brees can overcome a lot a we all know. I am taking the Saints in a minor upset, for the Saints may have too many weapons for the Chiefs to stop, much less keep up with. Saints win.

New Orleans 39 Kansas City 37


Buffalo at Miami: This is not a big game, but divisional battles can be fun. Buffalo has won 4 straight and can use another big division win with the Patriots right in front of them and a win in hand already. The other big story is dangerous Bills RB LeSean McCoy playing in a game where he was reported to be out (supposedly for several weeks) earlier in the week. How much he plays and how well may tip the balance of the game. Miami may be out of the playoff race already, but being a spoiler in a division game...such is always fun.

Who wins? The Dolphins are a big disappointment, but they are not done yet. Teams playing in a warm Miami, especially early to mid-season have had issues with the humidity. However, I sense these Bills will have no issues with the weather nor the weakened Dolphins and will get their 5th win in a row, with or without McCoy. Bills win.

Buffalo 33 Miami 28

Baltimore at  New York Jets: Baltimore is free-falling after a good start. The Jets have been falling all year. But the Ravens are still in the AFC North race and could have a chance to move up with the Steelers losing their great QB for a while with a knee injury. But the Ravens must win this game or their promising season may be all but over. The Jets are just playing for pride....again. Without some more wins, their head coach may be fired. Not good.

Who wins? The Ravens have had some tough losses to good teams. The Jets, with all of their turmoil at quarterback, is not a good team. Baltimore had better win this one...and not get more folk hurt in the process or this season is over. Baltimore wins.

Baltimore 30 New York Jets 20


Minnesota at Philadelphia: This game has far more intrigue than it did in April. With the Vikings losing their QB, then trading their 2017 first round pick for Eagles starter Sam Bradford and now finding themselves as the last undefeated team, they are flying. The Eagles, who as a result of the above ended up starting rookie 2nd overall pick QB Carson Wentz started 3-0, but has fallen back to 3-2 after their early bye, now must right the ship as Dallas and Washington have both passed them. This may have been a rebuilding year for one or both, but neither team can complain about this trade..yet. This game will go a long way in seeing where two teams may end up as far as the playoffs. This is a must-watch game.

Who wins? The Eagles seem to be falling to earth after a lofty start...which is not good with games against Dallas and the second game with Washington to come. The Vikings control their fate as long as they keep winning. Every win matters and this team is far more balanced than we all thought and with a powerful defense to lead them, these Vikings are going to be a force...as long as no one else goes down for any length of time. Bradford will not be scared by the Eagles defense. The Vikings will show some grit on the road and get a big road win.

Minnesota 28 Philadelphia 24


Indianapolis at Tennessee: This is not a great game. The Colts blew a great chance to cut down division leader Houston last week. I am not convinced they can do better in another road division teat at Tennessee. The Colts are still dangerous with QB Andrew Luck, but that has not been enough for most of this year. Titans QB Marcus Mariota may be as good as Luck, and he has more weapons. This is not must see TV.

Who wins? The Colts are fighters, and the AFC South is still in reach, but the Titans are ready to do the same and have the least to lose. I am taking the home team for this squad may be the most ready to do something in the playoffs in this division. Simple as that. These Colts are just not ready. Period. Titans win.

Tennessee 29 Indianapolis 24

San Diego at Atlanta: This game is another high scoring affair and don't expect a lot of running yards outside of inside of the other team's 5 yard line..lol. San Diego QB Philip Rivers versus Atlanta QB Matt Ryan. Party!!!!! I expect these two to total no less than 650 yards passing in this game (700 total will not surprise me). Enjoy this game for these two will light it up. Plus, I am not betting Rivers will still be around when these teams play in the regular season again in four years. So watch some of this game!

Who wins? The Chargers can score with anyone. They just cannot finish games too well, as we have seen week after week after week. Atlanta has been, but after last year's finish...nothing is assured. But Atlanta has too many offensive weapons to lose this one at home. I have to take the Falcons here.

Atlanta 42 San Diego 31

New England at Pittsburgh: The luster of this game is seriously dulled with the Steelers losing QB Ben Roethlisberger (knee). The Steelers know the Ravens and  Bengals are reeling, but can the Steelers stay ahead in the AFC North until their offensive leader returns? Hard to say. New England weathered the storm of QB Tom Brady's suspension and TE Rob Gronkowski's (and others) injuries,  and now they are rolling right along. Pittsburgh was supposed to be a major test for these Patriots, but with QB Landry Jones now the starter, even with RB Le'Veon Bell back and having WR Antonio Brown around, does the Steelers have a chance?

Who wins? Really? If it wasn't for the Patriots bending over for Miami just before Brady's return, this would be a undefeated team. Pittsburgh is tougher overall, but without Big Ben...barring injuries...there is no way these Steelers can win this one. Patriots win again.

New England 30 Pittsburgh 21


Tampa Bay at San Francisco:


San Francisco 30 Tampa Bay 28

Washington at Detroit:






Washington 28 Detroit 25 (OT)
Oakland at Jacksonville: Despite losing to KC at home last week, Oakland is a dangerous team, sitting tied for first in the AFC West with Denver. But this team is undefeated on the road. Road wins do matter and Oakland knows they finish with three road division games at the end of the year. Every winnable game gotten now may mean everything entering December. Jacksonville is a big disappointment so far, since so many felt these young Jags, along with the Raiders were the sleeper picks to make the AFC playoffs this year. The Jags have not gotten it done. Can they trip up the Raiders?

Who wins? The Raiders are just too good and just and young as the Jaguars. They have grown up fast and they are not letting a lesser team slow them down now. Oakland gets their fourth road win and continue to march toward a playoff berth. Raiders win again.

Oakland 30 Jacksonville 20

Sunday Night Football on NBC:
Seattle at Arizona:



Arizona 24 Seattle 23

Monday Night Football on ESPN:
Houston at Denver: Houston QB Brock Osweiler returns to Denver where he won a Super Bowl ring backing up now-retired QB Peyton Manning.





Denver 33  Houston 20


Bonus picks: NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup Playoffs: Round of 12 Elimination Race: Chase Race Six: Talledega:

Of the 26 "regular season" races, there are 6-8 races that stand out on the schedule. Daytona 500 and Firecracker 400...Brickyard....Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte..Bristol twice..Darlington...September race at Richmond (Chase cut-off race). Every Chase race matters, but especially the cutoff races and the championship finale at Homestead Miami. But there are two races that almost dwarf even Daytona. The two races at Talledega (Alabama), especially this one in the Chase. This racetrack is the biggest on the circuit...has the highest speeds for the longest periods. Some might say it is the most boring race...others say it is the most exciting race..because for the danger of wrecks..and "The Big One". No other track has more danger or the risk of one wreck taking out more (potential) cars..or worse...than this track. Google past race highlights if you think I am kidding.
    If there is one race on the schedule you should watch live (or DVR it like I will, because my Raiders are playing and I am working), besides Daytona or Richmond or Homestead...it is this one. This race has the potential of shuffling the Chase standings greatly. So much so that this race was moved to Race 5 in the Chase for next year and Kansas moved down one week on the schedule just to make it easier on the Chase teams to have a more fair chance to qualify for the Chase semifinals (Round of 8) after Talledega since this race could make or destroy a team's season...in a instant. More reason to watch. Below is the list of Chase drivers and who I think will advance and why. 10 drivers going for 6 spots...there will be oil and metal (and hopefully not blood) spilled. Enjoy

Already Advanced with Round of 12 race wins: Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick: These drivers must just start the race and survive it, no matter where they finish. Simple as that.

Will Advance to Round of 8 on points OR by winning this race:
1. Brad Keselowski- He is only 7 points out of 8th after getting wrecked last week. But he did actually win Talledega a few years ago to advance to the next round. If anyone can do it again, he can. Especially since Kevin Harvick has already clinched his spot in the Round of 8. I believe Brad will take his his qualifying spot and use it to advance.
2. Kyle Busch- He is too good to not advance. Remember, the defending champ had to rally after missing the first third of the season last year due to serious injuries to not only make the Chase, but win the whole thing. I am not betting against him. Four Joe Gibbs Toyota are fighting to make the Round of 8...if only one makes it, Kyle Busch is the one I will bet on (Sorry, Denny).
3. Carl Edwards-I just have a feeling that Carl will slip through this time. He has experience and he is cool as they come. Edwards advances.
4. Martin Truex, Jr.-Like Edwards, Truex is a good driver and has been running well of late. He is the remaining feel good story of the Chase as well. He will make it.
5. Joey Logano-This year's Daytona winner got kind of screwed out of the semifinals last year due to feuding with Kenseth and his uncharacteristic retaliation when Logano was in position to win an race and advance. This time, Hamlin will get through will Kenseth is left out of the final 8. Karma...lol.
6. Denny Hamlin- I know he is the lowest in points of the four JGR cars. But I am not going to bet against him either. He is from my hometown, so I got his back. Also, he is the hungriest of the 4 drivers, even more than Carl Edwards, the other JGR driver without a championship. Hamlin will find a way.


Will be Eliminated from the Chase after Talladega:
1. Kurt Busch- He is a great driver and past champ. But he has too much bad luck in big races to get through this time. Sorry.
2. Matt Kenseth- Like Busch, a former champion, but also has bad luck hit him too often to make him a factor. I sense this will happen again. Sorry.
3. Austin Dillon- The other Chase rookie may have slipped through the first round, but his luck ends here. Too much experience to fight through to advance. He will have his day...just will not be today.
4. Chase Elliott-25 points behind 8th-He has the capability to win a race. The unpredictability  of Talladega makes such possible...IF the big one happens while Elliott was leading AND it takes out virtually all of the Chase drivers besides Harvick and Johnson. Not impossible..but with a talented rookie against a bunch of veterans and current and former NASCAR champs? I don;t think so.

2016 NFL picks Week 6....and the Chase for the Sprint Cup moves on to Kansas as Talledega looms.

Last week's results:


Season:

Only two teams on bye this week? This scheduling makes no sense at all.

Teams on bye this week:

1. Minnesota (5-0): When the schedule came out in April...before any training camps or any injuries had occurred, the thought never crossed my mind that these Vikings would do this well from the start, especially now with the injuries that have occurred, or the things they have done to address said losses. Coul this team be the surprising (then)St. Louis Rams of 2016? That was also a team who lost their starting QB in preseason and rode their totally unknown backup all the way to a Super Bowl championship. Can these Vikings do the same. Maybe. QB Sam Bradford is more known than Kurt Warner was then, but he has just as much to prove at this point in his career. With a team with heart beside him and a stronger than expected defense and special teams..this team is trouble for all who must face them in the NFC. I am not saying they will 16-0 or beyond....but this team has a shot to do big things THIS year and might have the schedule to pull if off, if they don't forget what got them this far...down the road. If they do...this long-suffering fan base will get some happiness not seen in this area in a long time.

2. Tampa Bay (2-3): The Bucs are working toward building a contender. They have a lot of pieces already, starting with QB Jameis Winston. However, the injuries that their best weapons on offense seem to keep having has hurt. Also, the defense is not too good right now. Having two wins after 5 games is progress.

Thursday Night Football on NFL Network/CBS: Denver at San Diego:
     The Chargers just cannot catch a break. Between the injuries to key players they have suffered in the first month of the season, to the many ways this team has blown leads and lost games they were leading late in the game, the Chargers have looked like the win-less Browns. But these guys have unbelievable fight, and is the most dangerous 1-4 team the NFL has seen in years..WITH the injuries. Imagine what the team would be if they were full strength! Denver, has had a lot of lucky bounces and a great defense to carry them this year. But last week, they fell at home to a dangerous Atlanta team with their starting QB Trevor Simien (shoulder) out. Rookie backup Paxton Lynch was not horrible, but not enough  to counter the dangerous QB Matt Ryan and friends. Now the Broncos must go west on a short week, with their starter back to try to beat a desperate team who is more than game to upset the Broncos and potentially knock them all the way out of first place (if Oakland wins Sunday), especially with QB Philip Rivers just as potent as ever, with or without their best offensive weapons. This will be a fun Thursday game to watch opposite the NL divisional winner-take-all game.

Who wins? The Broncos should be better with their defense and QB back. But the Chargers know that if they lose this game, they are all but done as far as a playoff berth is concerned...AND their coach might also get fired (by the weekend) as well. Considering how close this damaged team has come to win in every game this year and could EASILY be 5-0 right now...I am taking the underdog Chargers to win.

San Diego 30 Denver 27 (OT)

Sunday's Games:
San Francisco at Buffalo:



San Francisco 30 Buffalo 27 (OT)

Jacksonville at Chicago:



Jacksonville 23 Chicago 17
Los Angeles at Detroit:





Detroit 27 Los Angeles 23

 Pittsburgh at Miami:




Pittsburgh 34 Miami 21

Cincinnati at New England:



New England 33 Cincinnati 27
Cleveland at Tennessee:



Cleveland 27 Tennessee 24 (OT)

Dallas at Green Bay:





Dallas 34 Green Bay 31 (OT)
Atlanta at Seattle:



Seattle 38 Atlanta 36

Philadelphia at Washington:




Washington 34 Philadelphia 31


Kansas City at Oakland:





Oakland 37 Kansas City 30
Sunday Night Football on NBC: Indianapolis at Houston:




Indianapolis 34 Houston 27


Monday Night Football on ESPN: New York Jets at Arizona:








Arizona 27 New York Jets 25

Bonus pick:


Joey Logano wins the race....4 Chase drives finish worse than 28th due to wrecks and are in deep (bleep) for Talledega next week, including Elliott, Kurt Bush, Kenseth and Dillon.

2016 NFL Picks Week 5: Busy weekend of sports and WWE pay-per-view too!

2016 NFL Picks Week Five

Last Week: 9-6 plus 3-1 on bonus picks

Season: 35-28, plus 11-6-1 on bonus picks. I am starting to move up on picks, but I know I left a lot of winning picks on the table.

Teams on Bye:

1.       Seattle (3-1): This is a rather shaky 3-1 team. Despite having the majority of the defense being as strong as ever, especially the Legion of Boom secondary, the offense is in trouble. The running game is in shreds, both due to ineffectiveness and also ongoing injuries to shaky starter RB Thomas Rawls. New FA pickup RB C.J. Spiller may help through the season...or he may not. Their best weapon is QB Russell Wilson, who has already been one of the biggest draft steals of all-time. However, his badly hurt ankle has affected this offense greatly in the early going. Without his mobility, Wilson is greatly diminished as a quaterback and it would make his smaller-than NFL average height and arm strength a much more important (negative) factor. Hence, this bye is huge for him. However, even if Wilson returns next week recovered...the running game is still weak. The receivers are still...middle of the road at best. Even with the strong defense, Seattle is more like a paper-thin 3-1...and they still must face the Rams again,..in LA. Can Wilson stay healthy? Can he and this defense carry Seattle to the playoffs, especially if the Rams can keep up their surprising start? Hard to say. Ask me again after Week 10.

2.       Kansas City (2-2): The Chiefs look shaky. Yes, they escaped with the opener in OT. But the Chiefs haven't been that great since. With the Raiders and the Broncos already having passed them, they are in a hole. If the two win again, the Chiefs will be in  worse trouble with a game at Oakland next week. Getting RB Jamaal Charles back is good, but the team had been doing better without him than with him. Go figure. These Chiefs may need 10 straight wins to make the playoffs, never mind win the division. Can they do this?I have my doubts...but they have a good QB and coach...and defense..so who knows?

3.       Jacksonville (1-3): The Jaguars are shaky and has already blown at least two games they could have won. They stole away a win from the Colts in London, but they have been useless otherwise. Will they be better after the bye? Maybe...the early bye could help them down the road. But they are a young team. Playoffs may be too much to ask for this year. But building for a playoff run next year? That starts NOW!

4.       New Orleans (1-3): These Saints are in a transition right now. Their start clearly says that this is not a serious playoff threat. Too many young pieces and inexperience around veteran QB Drew Brees. But...the NFC South is no sure thing, even for 3-1 Atlanta. The early bye may help New Orleans rally...or it might not. But that offense can still do work...so we will see. I won't count these guys or Brees out...yet.

Thursday Night Football on CBS/NFL Network:

Arizona at San Francisco: This game may well be a (wild-card) playoff elimination game...in Week 5. Yes...it is that big. Few folk thought Arizona would be in this spot. But bad breaks, injuries and shaky play has them here. Worse yet, the Cardinals must play at least this game (likely more) without QB Carson Palmer (concussion) and that will all but kill this offense, as we have seen in recent years. Unless.....backup QB Drew Stanton can get this offense going and get a win outdoors at night on the road. The defense is decent...but not on a Denver or Minnesota (?) level. The Niners were not expected to be a contender in 2016. People took notice when they blanked the Rams on the late MNF game from Week 1. But the Niners have been beat up ever since. So one does not expect a lot from this team. If the Niners hope to steal another division win....this is the one they must grab..especially at home!

Who wins? This game will be ugly. I do not see a lot of scoring. But if either or both of these teams makes the playoffs...this game could be the springboard toward such. With Palmer out, the  QBs are even...and that is something Arizona will take...and run with. Because the Cardinals roster and coaching staff is better top to bottom than that of San Francisco...I am taking the Cardinals to survive..this week. Next week...is another story.

Arizona 27 San Francisco 21

Sunday’s Games:

New England at Cleveland: Tom Brady is back! Patriots Nation is very happy about that. But how fortunate that the Patriots to get...Cleveland (WTF?) for his first game? But the game is in Cleveland. Cleveland (not surprisingly) is the NFL's last win-less team. They are on their third starting QB. They have shaky defense and little offense. Except for last week's shocking loss at HOME to Buffalo, the Patriots have weathered a near record amount of QB woes (Cleveland is still the standard-bearer in this regard. 2016 is a great example of that!) , this team refuses to lose. What chance does the Browns have to win?

Who wins? The Patriots will be at full strength, while the Browns are short-handed (as usual). The only things that could cause the Pats to lose their second straight game is TE Rob Gronkowski getting hurt (again...unlikely), Brady himself getting hurt and/or has the worst game of his career due to rust or whatever (highly unlikely) and the Browns that can play playing a perfect game for 60 minutes. Get real. Patriots will win.

New England 30 Cleveland 17

Philadelphia at Detroit: The surprising Eagles return from their early bye to face the reeling Lions. Detroit is a tougher team when they are at Ford Field than they are on the road, especially outdoors. Having a rookie coach and rookie QB has not hurt the Eagles so far, most of their games was at home. Winning on the road is another matter...especially for games that you are allegedly "supposed to win". With the rest of the NFC East not that far behind...even Washington.... every win matters. This is a classic trap game....if Detroit can channel some inner lion and play like such and without mistakes. Even with dangerous passer QB Matthew Stafford leading the way...good luck with that.

Who wins? Detroit has enough talent to pull off the upset. If Detroit controls the clock and Stafford throws the ball around like what QB Matt Ryan did for Atlanta last week, which he is capable of, I see a upset coming. However, I don't think that will happen. I see some rust and rookie errors from Wentz, but the Eagles will still win...this week.

Philadelphia 34 Detroit 25

Chicago at Indianapolis: The Bears got a much needed first win over Detroit last week. The Colts found a way to give away a needed win in London. Unlike the Jaguars, the Colts are playing this week instead of being on bye. If they win this winnable game at home, this could be a good thing. But can QB Andrew Luck and friends get it done? I have my concerns. This is a weak Bears team who doesn't even have shaky starter QB Jay Cutler (thumb) on the field. This team is far weaker than the Jaguars. Surely the Colts with a mostly healthy Luck can win this game, right?

Who wins? The Bears with backup QB Brian Hoyer has a chance to score another upset over these Colts who have to be tired after having to travel to and play in London seven days ago and then fly right back home to play again a week later. Some teams work better in such adversity. But the Colts do have a clear talent advantage. The Colts will get this right this time. Colts win.

Indianapolis 30 Chicago 23

Tennessee at Miami: This game will be kind of wet with Hurricane Matthew having passed by on Friday. Both teams was hoping for a better start, but that did not happen. Bottom line...every game matters from here on. Miami just isn't playing well and they have some injury issues. The Titans are young and not carrying a huge amount of talent which limits what QB Marcus Mariota can do. Plus the defense is not great. This game will not be that great, but it will be wet.

Who wins? The game is in Miami, but considering the weather that has come through there, home field won't help a already shaky team. The Titans are due for a win and they have a running game which is better on a super wet field. Plus the Titans have more talent..but not by much. Titans win.

Tennessee 26 Miami 24

Houston at Minnesota: Houston brings their good, but currently not great defense into Minnesota's new palace to face the undefeated Vikings and their BETTER team defense. The Texans still have a offense that is so-so and not super good yet. They have weapons but no consistency. Minnesota's resurgent defense can stuff this offense. The Vikings offense under QB Sam Bradford has done well considering the major injuries they have had...but injuries are still coming in. Can Houston's Watt-less defense stop these guys? I am not liking it.

Who wins? This will be a game of defenses ruling and offenses just going fetal and taking it. The team that makes the fewest mistakes and the fewest turnovers will win. That will be Minnesota. Every win they get to start off is one less win the Vikings need after their bye to make the playoffs. And if Green Bay loses again, the Vikings may be a few wins away from being gone in the NFC North. And if they get RB Adrian Peterson back at the end of the season? Oh, my. The Texans can lose today and still have great position in their division, but this one will sting. Minnesota wins and stays undefeated.

Minnesota 29 Houston 20

New York Jets at Pittsburgh: The Jets look real weak. Period. They have had some bad luck, but the bottom line is that this team is not winning. Pittsburgh is looking good, except for the ass-kicking they took in Philadelphia. They did get by the Bengals at home, but with five division games left, we will see how strong they really are. For today, the Steelers have everything they need to win, including home field and the returned RB Le'Veon Bell. What else is there to say?

Who wins? The Jets need a game like what Philly did...and then some...to be able to upset Pittsburgh. I am not saying it is impossible, but it is not likely. The Eagles have more overall talent, and Bell wasn't playing. Plus Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown 9 INTs the last two weeks. Expect some more here. Steelers win again.

Pittsburgh 31 New York Jets 20

Atlanta at Denver:  The Falcons go west after their record setting passing game for QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones at home last week. They are 3-1. They are on fire. The problem is....this team is usually not as good outdoors, and they get to face the deadly undefeated Denver defense. If these two rack up HALF of what they did last week, that will be a miracle. But here is the other side of the coin: Denver has to start rookie QB Paxton Lynch in place of injured starter Trevor Siemien. Lynch was not bad in finishing a win last week, but this defense is not the one to see in your first career start, even with the game at home. This could be interesting.

Who wins? Despite everything said above, remember...the Falcons has no defense. They are giving up 30-plus points a game. Yes that is NOT the worst in the league, but how long  can the offense cover for the defense? Won't happen this week. But if they really get to Lynch...you never know. But Denver's defense will not slow down Atlanta enough...and if Atlanta's offense stays on the field for more than 40 minutes and keep their defense on the bench, even in the thin Denver air, this Broncos defense will fold late. Atlanta somehow upsets Denver.

Atlanta 39 Denver 38

Cincinnati at Dallas: Dallas is rolling but QB Tony Romo is going to be back soon. Can the Cowboys bench rookie QB Dak Prescott when Romo returns? This game will go a ways in deciding that. The Bengals are shaky, but they are fare from the worst team in football (named Cleveland). The Dallas defense will be tested, even with some players returning to the lineup. This is a big game for both, because a loss could drop the loser 2 games behind the division leader...not good. This is a good late game to watch.

Who wins? I am not saying what I think about Dallas' QB dilemma right now, but the team has other concerns. They need this win, but so does the Bengals. I really have no faith in the shaky Bengals in QB Andy Dalton, but Dallas does still have a lot of weakness on defense, and what if WR Dez Bryant (knee) does not play like Bengals TE Tyler Eifert(back) again? I see a upset here. I am taking the Bengals.

Cincinnati 34 Dallas 27 (OT)

Buffalo at Los Angeles: Well, Buffalo upset the Patriots in Foxboro. Didn't see that coming. But the 2-2 Bills must go west to face the tougher Rams defense and their surprising 3-0 run after they got shut out in the opener. With the continuing injuries at WR, they will have a hard time just running the ball on the rugged Rams defense. This will be interesting. Can the Bills pull off a second straight road upset?

Who wins? Look, the Bills will NOT shut out these Rams. However, can the Bills score on offense? Can the Rams score a bunch on offense? After being so wrong on that with the Tampa game, I am not saying this will be low scoring, because it won't be. But Buffalo won't stop this offense and the Rams can score. That long flight west will sap the Bills. Rams keep rolling.

Los Angeles 31 Buffalo 20

Washington at Baltimore: This will be a interesting game. The Ravens field will be wet due to the bands from Hurricane Matthew which did delay the MLB playoff game in Washington. But this would be the same, if not worse, if this game was held in suburban Maryland. Whatever. The Redskins have won two straight, but Baltimore is a tough challenge, especially after being upset by Oakland last week. This is a must see game. The teams may not see this as a rivalry since they only play each other in the regular season every 4 years. Whatever. You will see differently.

Who wins? This will be a shootout. The wet field may slow down the passing game some...for both teams. So the running game will be the key. Baltimore's surprise release of RB Justin Forsett leaves young backs who have talent to run against the weak run defense of Washington. Who blinks the least? Washington will, because they have better runners...for now. I am taking Washington in a upset.

Washington 27 Baltimore 24 (OT)

San Diego at Oakland: I never thought I would say this...3 road wins to start the season? Raiders? WTF???? Yes, that is true. The Raiders survived the first 3 out of 4 road game trip 3-1. Good for them. But now, they come home and open their division schedule against a decimated, but still dangerous Chargers team. But Oakland's lead RB, Latavius Murray (toe) is OUT...so their young backups will have to carry the load. However, does it matter? The Raiders passing game is on fire, led by QB Derek Carr and his group of young AND old receivers. This team can score. The defense has allowed WAY too many yards and points and must get better. How long can the offense save them (like in Atlanta, who barely won here 2 weeks ago)? The Chargers have lost much of their offensive weapons, but as long as QB Philip Rivers is upright, you can never count this team out. Expect fireworks of passing here.

Who wins? I fear the Raiders defense may let Rivers throw for 500 yards (or the team totals 500-plus yards of offense), like Atlanta ran up last week on the battered Panthers. But Ryan didn't do that when they played the Raiders, so who knows. But the Chargers don't have defense to slow down Carr and friends either and the offense is hurting.  Bottom line, the Raiders defense might allow less than 500 yards, but not by much. But the Raiders offense is too steady and hot to be stopped by a decimated Chargers team, even at home. Raiders get their first home win and stay in the chase behind Denver.

Oakland 38 San Diego 31

Sunday Night Football on NBC:

New York Giants at Green Bay: Green Bay returns from their early bye week and plays at home against the now-shakier Giants. The Green Bay offense has looked like shit so far, but Green Bay keeps winning. But with Minnesota still undefeated, the Packers must win to stay close, having lost at Minnesota already. The Giants are in the same boat, with the undefeated Eagles returning from a early bye too, and looking like they could crush Detroit, right? Another conference loss will bury the Giants behind a lot of teams in the NFC, including EVERYONE in the NFC East. The Giants need to be desperate NOW..but can they win here?

Who wins? Green Bay can weather a loss a lot more than the Giants can, having gone from finally getting past Dallas to being shocked by Washington and finding themselves dropping from first to last in 4 weeks. Go figure. Am I surprised? No. Rookie head coach and turmoil aplenty across the roster, and not just the meltdowns of OBJ. Green Bay is more stable...more R-E-L-A-X-E-D and they are at home. Oh, and they have QB Aaron Rodgers. Sorry Eli..you may have more rings, but Rodgers will make the Hall of Fame before you based on the total resume. I am taking stable. Green Bay wins again.

Green Bay 35 New York Giants 30

Monday Night Football on ESPN:

Tampa Bay at Carolina: This game is likely to be a elimination game like the Arizona game at the Niners seems to be. Whomever loses will be 1-4, and it will be hard, if not impossible to overcome such to win ANY playoff berth in the competitive NFC. For Carolina, it looks like reigning MVP QB Cam Newton (concussion) will not play. Backup Derek Anderson is far from the worst backup in the league. But can he, a pocket passer, match his performance with that of the mobile and linebacker sized Newton to help the Panthers win? If not, can the Buccaneers take advantage, despite having a shaky offense and also missing key players in the run and pass game...and not having much of a defense either?

Who wins? Tough call. Tampa's QB Jameis Winston is talented, though his play in the last few weeks has shown little of that. But can he and the Bucs steal this win on the road with Newton on the sidelines? The simple answer is....no. Anderson is no slouch, otherwise Carolina would have drafted  a youngster to back up Newton by now. Carolina still has a better defense. That will make the difference of a injured and still young and inexperienced Buccaneers offense (and coaching staff). Hence, Carolina wins at home.

Carolina 28 Tampa Bay 20

Bonus Picks:

NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup Playoffs: Race 4: Round of 12 Race 1 at Charlotte:

This is the start of the quarterfinal round of the playoffs with 12 drivers left. As before, if a Chase driver wins this race, which will be the final Saturday night race of the season, barring weather delays, or either of the next two races, he automatically advances to the Round of 8 semifinal round, regardless of points. As before, the four drivers with the fewest points after the Talledega race will be eliminated. Points from earlier wins mean nothing at this point. As such, this race and next week’s race at Kansas are huge, specifically knowing how…unpredictable Talledega can be, being the largest, fastest and most…dangerous track on the circuit. I will discuss that more in two weeks, but the bottom line is: If a Chase driver does not win at Charlotte or Kansas, no driver will be safe at Talledega, no matter what the point lead is…or is not. Below is my thoughts on the remaining drivers, listed in the order I think they will finish in this round of 3 races. Below will be my prediction of who does what at Charlotte on Saturday night (NOW Sunday afternoon/evening due to rain delay from the hurricane):

1.      Martin Truex, Jr.: Thought to be a big underdog in the Chase, he now is the favorite to win it all after winning two of the first 3 Chase races, plus a race in the regular season. He has been consistent, fast and a contender to win every race and has stayed out of trouble. If he and his team can continue to run their race and do it error-free, he should advance.

2.       Kevin Harvick: The former champ and lead Stewart-Hass driver won the other race in the first round and is as good a driver in the Chase as you can find. He is very strong at 1.5 mile length tracks like Charlotte and Kansas and a threat to win one or both races. His team is also strong and consistent. Only really bad luck, surprising major errors during pit stops and mechanical failures (remember Jimmie Johnson in this round last year) could or will prevent Harvick from advancing.

3.       Kyle Busch: The defending champion is in great shape here. Like the others above, the younger Busch brother is strong and a serious threat to win at least one race in this round, if not all three races. It also helps to have all three of his teammates still in the Chase as well. I don’t think all of the Joe Gibbs Racing cars will advance to the Round of 8, but Kyle Busch is the most likely to advance…even if the other 3 (unlikely) do not.

4.       Matt Kenseth: A former (pre-Chase) Cup champion also, Kenseth is experienced in the Chase, but has not had great luck in such and has lost his cool in the past dealing with Joey Logano last year and getting suspended by NASCAR as a result. This year, he has just done his job, but knowing Logano is also in the Chase…what might happen? For all his skill and experience, Kenseth is one that I am concerned about advancing.

5.       Joey Logano: After Truex, Jr., Logano is the first non-champ listed in the standings. Logano is very good and had a fair shot at winning a title last year before getting into a situation with Kenseth and ultimately getting wrecked by him while leading a race which ultimately got him knocked out early. He has the equipment, skill and attitude to win a race in this round. Can he? Maybe. He is also no sure thing to advance, but he might just sneak through on points due to crazy wrecks at Talledega. Somebody will...and if so, Logano is the one who does.

6.       Chase Elliott: The young rookie has had a great year to make the Chase, much less advance to this round without winning a race. It would be huge to win this week or next to assure he advances. Otherwise, he will have problems advancing to the round of 8, even with driving a strong Hendrick car and having six-time champ and teammate Jimmie Johnson also in the round of 12. Those things, I sense will not be enough, especially if he ends up needing a huge finish or win at Talledega to advance since 10 of the other Chase drivers have FAR more Chase AND experience at these tracks than he does. I think his Chase run ends here, unless he gets his first Sprint Cup win in the next 3 races.

7.       Brad Keselowski: The 2012 Cup champ has the same skiils as Logano, his teammate. The difference is that Brad has a bit more Chase experience and also more experience in on and off track battles with other drivers. Brad K. did also win the title with a lame duck car (Dodge) with no teammates in the Chase AND beat a Chase field that included ALL FOUR Hendrick drivers (Kahne and Earnhardt, Jr were the other two in THAT Chase). He even won a race (maybe Talledega?) where he had to either win or be eliminated from the Chase and he did just that. You can never count him out, unless his car is totally wrecked. Brad K. will find a way to advance...again.

8.       Kurt Busch: Older brother of Kyle and also a former (pre-Chase) Cup champ, Busch is good enough to win anywhere. Can his team and equipment, along with some good luck help him advance? Maybe. But him being on a less-funded team, plus him often being in the wrong place at the wrong time and getting wrecked will keep him out of the top-8, NOT his driving skill. And his famous temper has been cool all year. He is a sleeper pick to win this whole thing.

9.       Denny Hamlin: The third JGR car, Hamlin is a Chase veteran who came within one race at Homestead to winning the title (lost to Jimmie Johnson) and has the skill and momentum with his three wins to do well and advance on points. But he has had bad luck and injuries before. I am biased because Hamlin and I are from the same area, but Hamlin will advance to the round of 8 this year.

1     Carl Edwards: Another experienced Chase driver who drives the fourth JGR car, Edwards can win races and advance. However, I just do not see more than 2 JGR drivers advancing. Unless he finds a way to win, I think Edwards will get caught up in wrecks and will not earn enough points to advance.

1    Jimmie Johnson: You can never count out the six-time champ who has mostly dominated the Chase in overall wins and titles. However, his surprise elimination due to a (cheap car) part failing and destroying his engine last year has got to be fueling Johnson and his team this year. Having not won since the spring is a concern, but if any driver can win a Chase race, it is Jimmie…even at Talledega.

Austin Dillon: The other remaining Chase rookie has done well to make the Chase at all by winning a race. However, Dillon’s low experience will hurt and Dillon must win to advance. Unless he gets a lucky rain-shortened win, I just don’t see Dillon advancing to the round of 8, at least not this year. Next year or 2018...very possible.

The race: This race has been affected by the march of Hurricane Matthew whose rains forced the delay of the race to Sunday afternoon. No big deal. The Chase drivers will all be in the mix, but when it is done, I see the rookies, Dillon and Elliott, plus Edwards and Kurt Busch in the bottom 4 after this race.Kenseth, Edwards, Hamlin and Logano won't be far in front of them. If a Chase driver wins here, bet on Jimmie Johnson, either Busch brother, especially Kyle, or Brad Keselowski in a crazy close finish.

WWE No Mercy (Smackdown Live!-exclusive PPV) Match predictions:

Randy Orton beats Bray Wyatt: Orton has not won much since his return from injury. Wyatt is established now and can afford a loss to this future Hall of Famer. The win likely won't be clean, but Orton will get it done.

Baron Corbin beats Jack Swagger: Swagger is not that big of a deal on the roster, and some forget that he did win the World title....years ago. He is not a major contender for the WWE title now, but Corbin could be within a year, and needs this win to help improve his resume. Swagger is a good company man and will oblige.

The Usos win the Smackdown Tag Team titles from Rhyno and Heath Slater: Smackdown needs some bad guys to be champs, if not to offset babyfaces The New Day still being the MNR tag champs. It was a big deal to turn the twins to heels and they need the titles to support a program against babyface American Alpha anyway. Rhyno and Slater was a nice story to win the titles in the tournament and officially put Slater on the Smackdown roster. Mission done. Now it is time for them to fade away and let the established tag teams fight for these titles.

Nikki Bella defeats Carmella: Carmella is young and may be the future in the Womens division for Smackdown...but Nikki needs to win to start her drive toward winning the (Smackdown) Womens title one more time. Bella likely doesn't have much time left in the ring (likely like her boyfriend Cena), and seeing her sister Brie Bella and brother-in-law (Smackdown GM and retired world champ Daniel Bryan) just announce she is pregnant with their first child, may push her to work faster for one more title shot before maybe she and Cena also ride off into the sunset. Just a thought.


The Miz defends his Intercontinental title and "ends" Dolph Ziggler's career: The rumors have said Ziggler is going to lose here so he can rest and recharge and return with a new gimmick in a few months, likely at or just after Royal Rumble in time for The Road to Wrestlemania...and I see no reason to believe otherwise. Miz without the title is basically just nothing for WWE or Smackdown Live...and that is worse than Ziggler right now. The two are close off screen, both being from Cleveland, so a title vs career match makes sense if Ziggler is gone...for a while or for good. This is a match I will watch for sure.

Becky Lynch defends her Smackdown Womens Title over Alexa Bliss: Bliss may be good, but she is still mostly unknown after being drafted from NXT. Lynch is a fan favorite and has taken too much shit to win her first major title to lose it in her first defense. Maybe she will at Survivor Series but now here. But this won't be a must see match...sorry.

John Cena upsets Dean Ambrose and AJ Styles to win the WWE World Title: Cena is supposed to be going off WWE TV shortly to go film the second season of his reality show "American Grit". But..still hanging over his head is that...Cena is almost 40 and may only have a short time left as a full-time wrestler, especially with all of his non-WWE stuff going on. He is not the main focus of Smackdown nor the WWE. If Cena is to tie Ric Flair's record of 16 World Title wins, now is the time for his chances are much better in a Triple Threat environment. Ambrose and Styles are the hot things now and for them to battle each other in the fall, Cena needs to be out of the way. Just because Cena wins, does NOT mean he would hold the title for long. I see one last shocking upset win for Cena to be The Champ now...and then we can see what happens in 2017 when he returns (be the Undertaker's likely last opponent at Wrestlemania 33 next April?) Just a thought.

2016 NFL Picks Week 4…plus the Chase for the Sprint Cup continues…..

Last Week: 10-6, plus 4-3-1 on the bonus picks. The tie is that the Cesaro-Sheamus match had no winner because both men were declared medically unfit to finish the match.

Season: 26-22, plus 8-5-1 on bonus picks. This is a improvement..lol.

Fantasy Football people….not only do the bye weeks start, but so do the International games as well. Please note the early start times not only for setting lineup, but also to watch the game in London if you want. These games may matter more than one realizes right now…lol.

Teams on bye this week:

1.       Philadelphia (3-0): One of the big shocks of the season so far is that BOTH Minnesota and these Eagles, who did the big trade of the preseason when Minnesota sent their 2017 first round pick to the Eagles for embattled then-starter (and former top overall pick) QB Sam Bradford. The trade suddenly elevated rookie second overall pick Carson Wentz to starter. In three wins, he has shown poise that most veteran QBs never master and the team's offense under rookie coach (and fomer NFL QB) Doug Peterson has flourished. I have to wonder if this super early bye week will hurt the Eagles down the road by slowing the early momentum this team had built. especially with almost all of their in-division games, home and away, down the road. All I can say right now is that whatever the Eagles are doing to get this great start...don't stop. And whatever they do...they must protect this young QB and the whole team for that matter from injury, for they cannot afford to lose their starter like so many other teams have already. If they lose any major players for long periods, this Week 4 bye could really bite them in the ass. But we will see.

2.       Green Bay  (2-1):  Green Bay is lucky to be 2-1, seeing how weak QB Aaron Rodgers and the offense has been, even with getting back favorite target WR Jordy Nelson back from the knee injury that cost him all of the 2015 season. The Packers loss at surprisingly undefeated Minnesota in the first game at the new Vikings stadium on SNF was a shock, but maybe it shows how much stronger the Vikings are,...at least on defense. But like in previous years, I would bet if asked, Rodgers would tell Packer Nation to R-E-L-A-X. And he would be right. This team is far from done. It is safe to think the Vikings will come back to the Packers if they stay the course. Regardless, the Packers must keep winning, in case Minnesota does not falter and Green Bay needs a wild-card berth. With both NFC finalists having serious issues out the gate, Green Bay must keep winning to make sure they earn their playoff spot. But unless Rodgers, RB Eddie Lacy and the offense gets better, can they?

Thursday Night Football on NFL Network:

Miami at Cincinnati: This game is big for early wild-card implications. With both teams with two losses and the entire AFC, except Cleveland and Jacksonville with at least one win (Oakland, KC and Pittsburgh, who beat the Bengals already, have two 2 wins and control the wildcard spots for now), this could well be an elimination game, for most of the teams ahead of them are NOT playing each other this week. Fall to 1-3 and that team will likely not climb over 6-9 teams to steal a wild-card spot. Miami looks shaky all around. Cincinnati is hurting and may well not have the Pittsburgh loss behind them. This may be a sneaky good game.

Who wins? Both teams seem shaky on defense and offense. But, bottom line, Bengals QB Andy Dalton is a “sort-of” proven QB and has led teams to the playoffs. Miami’s Ryan Tannehill has not. And with the Bengals at home at night and has more weapons overall, I take the Bengals.

Cincinnati 34 Miami 24

Sunday’s Games:

International Series Game on CBS: 930am EDT start time:

Indianapolis at Jacksonville from Wembley Stadium in London: This game looks to not be that important coming from London and not worth doing Breakfast with the NFL near Wimbledon (lol), unless you have players in this game, for fantasy football purposes and/or you root for one these teams. Like tonight’s game, this game could be an elimination game as far as an AFC wild-card is concerned. Except….this is the AFC South, and it is a weak division. With Houston now losing all-world DE J.J Watt (back-IR) for presumably the season makes Houston’s slim 1 game lead in the division even weaker. A win brings the Jags back into the race, or a win could put the Colts back at the top of the division if Houston falters. But neither will be done either way…but 1-3 Colts or 0-4 Jags won’t be good…especially for the Colts who are NOT on bye next week (WTF?), though the Jags are. Hence a loss here could be a killer for the Colts may well have a hard time winning at home next week after all that travel…even though the Cutler-less Bears are the next opponent. Hmm.

Who wins? At the end of the day, which team is better and/or more desperate for a win? I would have wanted to say the Jaguars...but I can’t. This team is young and just hasn’t gelled yet. They don’t know how to win close ones, yet. The Colts have more experience, and more importantly, they have QB Andrew Luck. And for this game…that will be enough. Colts win.

Indianapolis 27 Jacksonville 21

Tennessee at Houston: Houston is reeling from the loss of DE J.J. Watt (back-IR). Period. BUT this team is still in first place in the AFC South. This team is still dangerous. And unlike last year…they have a sort-of viable and more importantly, healthy QB now. They will need all of that and more to win this game and continue to try to push for a playoff berth in a still-winnable division. The Titans know they have more of a chance with Watt out to keep their QB, Marcus Mariota upright. But can they take advantage of initial shock and steal this win on the road?

Who wins? I just do not seeing the Titans doing it here. They are too inconsistent at this point….and Houston’s defense is far more than one guy, even Watt. From here on, we get to see if this Houston D can be led by DE Clowney and friends and if they can still be dominant without Watt, who has played a bunch of seasons and had a bunch of injuries already. Just saying. I think Houston finds a way to rally and win this one…barely. Texans win.

Houston 24 Tennessee 21 (OT)

Seattle at New York Jets: Seattle is in big trouble. The offense looked like crap..until last week, but more importantly, their leader, QB Russell Wilson (ankle and more) is battered and hobbled. RB Thomas Rawls is out injured again and Marshawn Lynch is retired. Enter newly signed free agent C.J. Spiller to provide depth. How much can he help mere days after being signed? Hard to say, but I hope he can block real well to protect Wilson. The Jets are in that pack of AFC teams I mentioned who needs wins now. But can they? I am not sure about that. The Patriots, despite everything is STILL winning and Brady is back next week…and they play Cleveland…right. Unless Buffalo somehow upsets NE, another loss will end the Jets’ shot at a division title. Seattle is tied for first in a tight (for now) NFC West with….the Rams who have already upset them (WTF???). Another early loss can be the loss that sinks the Seahawks’ playoff hopes later. Right, Arizona?

Who wins? Too close to call. Both need this win and it will be tight. Bottom line, Seattle is not the same team WITH a healthy Wilson and a running game. With Wilson hobbled…ugh. If the Jets can’t win this game..even with the Legion of Boom in town…the Jets may want to call themselves done before they even face the undefeated Patriots AND Tom Brady. I think the Jets will man up and win…this week. Jets win.

New York Jets 20 Seattle 15

Buffalo at New England: This is Buffalo’s one shot to slow down the surprisingly undefeated Patriots on the road. They are beat up, but the Patriots don’t have Brady and as of Thursday, we don’t know which backup QB will start…or will be available if not both. But will it matter? Can Buffalo find a way to pull off a upset that keeps them in a playoff race or will they go flat…again?

Who wins? NE has already did what they had to do until Brady returns. A loss here won’t kill them since they are two games clear right now. But still…4-0 is still better than 3-1, right? And this team will not pass on a chance to humble Rex Ryan and these Bills, even without Brady or Gronkowski (who is playing). Patriots win again.

New England 29 Buffalo 24

Carolina at Atlanta: Atlanta got a big win on Monday night by outlasting the Saints and Drew Brees. Now they go home for the hurting defending NFC champs in the first of two annual meetings. Atlanta is great offense, even with hurting WRs, but the defense is still...not good. The Panthers are 1-2 after a slow start and defending league MVP Cam Newton has been hammered more in 3 games than he had all of last year..before the Super Bowl, that is. With the Panthers having a shaky running game too, this could (and should be) a passing show between two of the better passers in the NFL today. Any defensive stands done in this game will be a big deal!

Who wins? Atlanta needs this win to stay ahead of Carolina and Tampa Bay, who has already beat them once. Carolina needs this win to right the ship and leave the division even at the quarter pole, and keeps winless New Orleans in the race..for now. Newton has a little more diversity on his side than Atlanta QB Matt Ryan does, and simply put, Atlanta's defense cannot stop Newton. Time of possession means everything here, and Carolina will do that better. I am taking the champs on the road.

Carolina 34 Atlanta 28

Detroit at Chicago: The Bears are already looking dead and buried after three losses, and having mercurial starting QB Jay Cutler out with injury (again). The Bears pretty much are, though they will not go down fighting. Can they avoid 0-16? This week may be a winnable game..maybe? The Lions have shown far more life than expected after WR Calvin Johnson abruptly retired in the off-season, much like Hall of Fame RB Barry Sanders did years ago. But after upsetting the Colts in Week 1, the Lions have not won again. Lose this one and their season is over. But with RB woes galore and shaky WRs, QB Matthew Stafford has to be Superman (and get help from somewhere...like the defense? his receivers? somebody?) for the Lions to win. Good luck with that. This is why Johnson left...and would he make much of a difference if he was still playing?

Who wins? No one outside of these towns. The Lions can stay relevant by winning this game. But seeing them outdoors is usually not a good thing...as Green Bay showed. The Bears, unfortunately, are no better. But at the end of the day, Detroit has a viable QB....and Chicago does not. All things considered, it is not much...but it is enough this day. Lions win, but will get a big chunk of hide taken out of them by Bears claws.

Detroit 28 Chicago 27

Denver at Tampa Bay: Denver may well be lucky to be 3-0, but they are. Their defense is still tough, but seeing what they do in road games will say a lot since the first two games were at home, and they should have lost at least the opener. Tampa shocked Atlanta in their opener, but has been blasted ever since. Can Tampa upset the world champs at home?

Who wins? Tampa has talent at QB, but with their best RB out, and the WRs looking not good at all...I see no chance against this defense. Plus Denver has looked decent on offense so far. Tampa has not much defense, to put it nicely. Perhaps John Elway did the right thing after all by letting Osweiler leave? So far so good. Denver wins again.

Denver 29 Tampa Bay 17

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona: After the asskicking the Rams took at SF in Week 1, no one expected the Rams to be tied for first in the NFC West, but here they are. Arizona was expected to be in first in the West right now, but they lost two games at home already. Not good. Another loss will not finish Arizona in the division race, especially if Seattle loses again (and the Rams lose later), but if the Cardinals have to get a wildcard berth to make the playoffs...this would not be good. The Rams must win to stay at the top, especially seeing how shaky the Seahawks are. Every game matters...and that Rams defense may be getting stronger and stronger. Strange.

Who wins? Arizona looks a little better on offense...but they are so shaky. The Rams are so tough on defense. I am thinking the Rams are on cloud 9 when it comes to confidence...and gritty defense works well...anywhere. I am taking the Rams in a upset in a low-scoring affair.

Los Angeles 20 Arizona 17 (OT)

New Orleans at San Diego: The Saints have been hard luck losers so far and find themselves 0-3. The Chargers have not only had hard losses, but have lost most of their play-makers for the year due to injury. However, the Saints still have future Hall of Famer Drew Brees who faces his former team in SD for the first time since he left nearly a decade ago. The Chargers still have his replacement in Philip Rivers, who might be considered for the HOF when his career ends if he had led his team to a Super Bowl, like Brees has. With neither team having much running game left, though the Saints still have RB Mark Ingram, this will be another passing show in a nice weather place. Enjoy.

Who wins? The loser of this game will be all but out of the playoff race...barring miracles. This could have been one of the wildest game of the year, but all the injuries have stripped that away. Enjoy this battle between Brees and Rivers, for I fear that one or maybe neither of these guys will be at the helm by the time these teams see each other again in the regular season...in four years. Bottom, line, Chargers will fight hard, but the Saints are even more desperate..and they have more right now. Saints get that first win here.

New Orleans 39 San Diego 36

Dallas at San Francisco: The Cowboys are hanging in there without QB Tony Romo after blowing the opener to the Giants. But now WR Dez Bryant is down too (again). Rookie QB Dak Prescott and HB Ezekiel Elliott have already proved they both have game. But the Cowboys need more than that to stay close in the NFC East while undefeated Philadelphia is on bye. The Niners are in a tight NFC West race, though no one thought the Niners would be much this year. Too early to say one way or the other though they have been punked the last two games. This could be a interesting game between two storied franchises...though the players are....not that storied...yet.

Who wins? Dallas has not done a great job protecting their house...but has gotten lucky on the road. The Niners are the opposite. With the injuries and everything else..this is a toss-up. I just see some strange things this week...I am taking the Niners in a upset at home. Dallas needs some help fast...and I am not talking about at QB or RB. Seriously.

San Francisco 29 Dallas 27

Cleveland at Washington: The Browns are looking like the Browns, except that they have some fight. This team should have beat Baltimore...and Miami...but they didn't. Hence, 0-3. The Redskins should have beat Dallas....and put up more of a fight versus Pittsburgh at home....but they didn't. They should have lost at the Giants. But they didn't do that either. Hence 1-2....and they are still in the NFC East race..though they are last, two behind the undefeated Eagles who are on bye. Cleveland sucks on the road. Surely, Washington can use momentum to win and not go 0-3 at home, right?

Who wins? Cleveland has no QB. The best one who is still healthy is playing WR in Terrelle Pryor. They have runners, but not so great ones. And they find out that suspended WR Josh Gordon is going to rehab..again...and will not be returning next week, and likely not ever...in a Browns uniform. Not sure what the deal is, but the defense is no good either. And Washington is nearly at full strength on offense. That means...little. Washington wins...barely. But if Cleveland somehow steals this one...somehow I won't be surprised. Washington winning by 30...THAT would surprise me...and that is not a good thing. Redskins survive to go to 2-2. Oh, and don't be surprised, if Pryor is the starting QB for these Browns at some point this year...if not next week.

Washington 34 Cleveland 20.

Oakland at Baltimore: These Ravens should have losses. But they are still undefeated. Yes, their schedule may have been light...but the wins is what counts. Now, they get a real challenge in the road-weary Raiders. But the Raiders are 2-0 on the road.and barely lost to the Falcons at home....with the defense looking like Swiss cheese. But the Ravens seem to like to fall behind early. Do that here, and these Raiders will bury you. Young Raiders QB Derek Carr is very good on the road, even when the team doesn't win. And he has a lot of help now on both sides of the ball. Baltimore is tough at home with QB Joe Flacco leading the way. But will that be enough to go to 4-0? Not so sure.

Who wins? Look, the Raiders have already, and will be logging a LOT of road miles this year. But they are young and hungry and they have not totally gotten it together yet, especially the defense. But hanging 35 and 28 on high scoring (and defensively challenged) New Orleans and Atlanta is no joke..and Tennessee didn't come close to that. For all the good fortune the Ravens have gotten against Cleveland and others earlier...the schedule gets harder..starting now. Oakland will not let the Ravens do what they did to Cleveland...sorry. Not the 2016 Raiders, that is. Oakland moves to 3-1 and stays right behind the champs and score another road upset. Sorry, Ravens. Time to get real. Raiders win.

Oakland 29 Baltimore 24

Sunday Night Football on NBC:

Kansas City at Pittsburgh: This will be a tough game fought between two tough teams. Pittsburgh is pissed after getting dumped on and declawed on the road by the undefeated Eagles (and taking state bragging rights with them). But this is the Steelers and they come back fast...especially when at home. The Chiefs look strong and are a good 2-1. Better yet, they will finally get dangerous RB Jamaal Charles back from injury, but these guys had won 11 of their last twelve regular season games (and a joke of a wild-card playoff game on the road) without him. So the Chiefs have a shot, right? One problem. These Steelers have offense, led by QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Antonio Brown...and they also get top RB Le'Veon Bell back (suspension) as well on SNF. Ummm.....this game is must see...right?

Who wins? While the Chiefs are battle-tested and are led by steady QB Alex Smith, even with Charles and WR Jeremy Maclin and a good defense...this is Pittsburgh...at home...after a embarrassing loss. Coach Mike Tomlin (NUPE!!...wiki his history to understand the reference.) is not going out like that. Especially with the Ravens potentially being 4-0 if they win earlier in the day. This is a must win for both teams....and the higher emotions of the Steelers at home will be more than the emotions of Charles returning to play with KC. And the Steelers have Brown and Big Ben. Case closed. No overtime TD miracle run this time for Smith. Steelers win in OT with a Bell TD run. Been there....done THAT before...lol.

Pittsburgh 34 Kansas City 28 (OT)

Monday Night Football on ESPN:

New York Giants at Minnesota: Minnesota is undefeated...with no Bridgewater and now, no Peterson. The Giants should be 3-0...but they choked to the (then) win-less Washington Redskins...at home. WTF??? Well, the NFL has strange things happening every week, every year. One thing is for sure. The Vikings' new home is a palace. But it can it really handle heavy Minnesota snow? We will see in a few weeks...maybe. Anyway, this will be a jewel in the MNF schedule this year...and that was not planned, when the schedule came out. The question is: can the super-shorthanded Vikings stuff the now-dangerous Giants in a game that may matter for playoff seeding later? Or does midnight start to toll for the Vikings?

Who wins?  This will be a tough test for both teams. But in the end...I am taking Cinderella at home. The Giants are too shaky and the Vikings have shown they are tough...and they have a REAL defense regardless of the injuries on offense. Defense matters. Vikings steal another win to open the season.

Minnesota 29 New York Giants 24

Bonus Picks: Chase for the Sprint Cup Playoffs: Race 3: Round of 16 Finale:

Citizen Soldier 400 at Dover International Speedway, Dover DE

This race sets the final group of 12 that advances to the second (quarterfinal) round of the Chase. Two Chase drivers have already advanced based on winning a Chase race. If a different Chase driver wins this race, he also automatically advances regardless of points, which could bump out someone who might have had more points otherwise. The drivers’ regular season and Round of 12 race wins mean nothing after this round, except in case of a points tie after the Homestead finale, where number of wins is the tiebreaker (See Stewart vs Edwards a few years ago).. The four drivers with the lowest point totals will fail to advance, but they keep their points and earn points for the remaining seven races to see who finishes 13^th-16^th in the final standings. Below is my thoughts and predictions for the Chase drivers and who will advance after this race and who won’t. I have a feeling that rain will affect this race…the DC area is being drenched with rain as I write this on Thursday morning and I fear it will proceed north and affect Delaware shortly. I will not surprise me if qualifying gets washed out and/or the race gets postponed to Monday (or even Tuesday) to get it in. Luckily, the next race is in Charlotte, NC...but it is currently scheduled for next Saturday. We will see how it goes.

Already Advanced:

By virtue of winning at Chicagoland and New Hamphshire respectively, these Chase drivers automatically move to the Round of 12, regardless of points.

Martin Truex, Jr. (Chicagoland, 2^nd in outright points).

Kevin Harvick (New Hampshire, 6^th in outright points).

Assuming a non-Chase driver or Truex, Jr. or Harvick wins this race:

Drivers who should advance on points barring a last place finish and/or another Chase driver winning this race:

1.       Brad Keselowski: Current points leader….30 points ahead of 12th place, 60 points ahead of 16^th

2.       Kyle Busch: 3^rd in points, 2 points behind Brad K.

3.       Matt Kenseth: 4^th in points, 9 behind Brad K.

4.       Joey Logano: 5^th in points, 5 behind Kenseth, 16 points ahead of 12th

5.       Denny Hamlin: Tied for 6^th in points with Harvick, 2 behind Logano

6.       Jimmie Johnson: 8^th in points, 1 behind Hamlin

Look, all of these guys are Chase veterans. Only Logano and Hamlin have NOT won a title..yet. Kyle Busch (defending champ) and Brad K are the only ones who almost surely could finish near last in this race and still advance on points. The others are not quite as secure, but only a nuclear (early) wreck scenario knocking all six of them out of the race could allow a low seed or two to knock them out, in addition to one of them winning the race. But stranger things have happened. Wait till Talledega...lol.

Drivers who need to do well and/or win or have other drivers crash out early to advance:

9. Chase Elliott: tied with Edwards, 11 points ahead of Larson in 12^th

10. Carl Edwards: tied with Elliott, 11 points ahead of Larson in 12^th

11. Kurt Busch: 1 point behind Elliott and Edwards, 10 points ahead of Larson in 12^th

12. Kyle Larson: 10 points behind Kurt Busch, 5 points ahead on McMurray and Dillon in 13^th/14^th

All of these guys need to be up front, lead laps to get a bonus point,  and finish the race in the top 10, if not better to be sure to advance. Edwards and Kurt Busch have the experience to stay clean, but Chase rookies Larson and (true rookie) Elliott had better drive a perfect race and stay away from trouble to do the same, even though they both have good teams and equipment. Dover is not the easiest of tracks and I expect a lot of cautions, especially if rain factors in…like I think it will.

Drivers who must finish in the top 5, IF NOT WIN…..AND have drivers ahead of them crash out and finish below 35^th to MAYBE advance.

13. Jamie McMurray: tied with Dillon, 5 behind Larson in 12th

14. Austin Dillon: tied with McMurray, 5 behind Larson in 12th

15: Tony Stewart: 6 points behind Mc Murray and Dillon, 11 points out of 12^th

Seeing 3 time champ Stewart make the Chase in his final year, especially with the on-track and off-track issues of the last few years, is very cool. But we would like to see him advance to the round of 12, at least. Stewart’s car is decent, but not great. He cannot drive it like teammate Harvick is now, but for one race..if the breaks come his way and others falter (someone will!), Stewart CAN make up 11 points and bump Larson if he does not win. Make up 21-27 points to get to as far up as even Logano? I doubt it unless a nuclear wreck or car failure takes out most of the Chase drivers (except Buescher) ahead of him early….no chance..right?

McMurray and Dillon together are right there and can advance if more than 2 or 3 drivers ahead of them crash early and finish way low…but if Stewart or Buescher outright wins…unless they finish in the top 5, they may still be gone. Too close to call.

This driver MUST (BLEEPING) WIN to advance: And if he does…I will likely (bleep) myself among other things….and so will a lot of other people!

16: Chris Buescher: 30 points out of 12th

He has an inferior car and team, even to his teammate, Truex, Jr. Still, having 5 lower-tier cars (6 if you count Truex, Jr.) in the 16-car Chase is big. We already know Truex, Jr. is advanced. At least one or likely two of the others will advance too, just based on number of cars unless strange things happen. But almost surely, NOT THIS ONE! 

Strategy and a lucky rainstorm that ended a race early when he was ahead is the ONLY reason he is in the Chase, and he didn’t even clinch the top 30 spot on points required for a “guaranteed” Chase spot until late in the regular season finale at Richmond, otherwise Kahne or maybe Newman would have been in the Chase instead. But this has happened before (Aric Almirola winning a rain-shortened Firecracker 400 (his only Cup series win) at Daytona to put the famous Petty 43 car in its first Chase a couple of years ago….but he was safely in the top 30 at the time and never came close to falling below such. He didn’t get the famous Petty 43 car out of the round of 16, however).

The potential rain situation and this unpredictable track might give Buescher a miracle punch’s chance to win IF his strategy and pit stops are perfect for the entire race AND if there is a LOT of driver misfortune with the other Chase drivers from the start. If he qualifies lower than 25^th like he usually does…or falls a lap down, he is done. He must be better all weekend, and must take every chance in the book (fuel economy, tires, when to pit or not) to have a chance to steal this win. Even a second place finish AND earning every bonus point to be had short of winning outright  is not enough to get him through on points…UNLESS the bottom half of the Chase field ALL wreck out early and ALL finish in the last 5-6 places (34^th-40^th places AND they all earn NO bonus points!). This race is where this young Chase rookie gets to (try to) prove that his win and presence in this Chase is no fluke. Good luck.

Drivers who do not advance to the Round of 12:
Buescher, Stewart, Dillon and McMurray