NFL Picks Week Three: September 22-26, 2017:

Last week's picks: 8-8

Season: 16-16, 4-2 on bonus picks

Fantasy football people: Time to get serious! Please note that bye weeks begin next week!With all of the injuries going around, bye weeks become more important than ever!

Thursday Night Football on CBS/NFL Network: Houston at New England:

    Houston has a rare opportunity to really kick the Patriots while they are down tonight. Starting QB Tom Brady is out for another week and a half (suspension) and current starter Jimmy Garrapolo is hurt (shoulder) and can’t go on a short week. Hence, they must start rookie QB Jacoby Brissett  instead against a dangerous Houston defense. However, the New England defense is not that bad and the Houston offense under new starter Brock Osweiler is still trying to find itself, despite having weapons at WR. By midseason, barring injury, the offense may be in good form, but even that is not equal to this team’s defense. But the Patriots are experienced and steady. But surely, the Pats cannot win with a third-string rookie QB, even at home. Right?

Who wins?  It is too early to expect New England to steal this one under these circumstances. But Houston is mostly just some defenders and little else right now, at least until Osweiler, Hopkins and the rest of the offense can do better. That could be a while.  I hate to do it…but the Patriots have more NOW, especially with Gronkowski playing this week. Houston has a similar weapon in Hopkins..but It is easier to limit a WR than to stop a TE of Gronk’s size, let alone talent. Patriots win…barely.

New England 24 Houston 21

Sunday’s games:

Arizona at Buffalo: The Cardinals look like they are trying to right the ship after letting the Brady AND Gronk-less Pats steal the opener in the desert. Buffalo…not so much.  Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor can be a dangerous dual-threat QB, but between injuries, lack of playmaking on both sides of the ball and shaky coaching from Rex Ryan, this team is a mess. And they have fairly bad luck too. I don’t think that bodes well here, even knowing Arizona does not do well outdoors…and on the East Coast. If this game was in November or December…this would be a different story.

Who wins? Arizona has balance. Arizona has coaches. Arizona has healthy playmakers on both sides of the ball. Buffalo does not. The Bills do not have enough to overcome all of that, even at home. Sorry. Arizona wins.

Arizona 34 Buffalo 20

Cleveland at Miami: The Browns cannot catch a break. First RG III goes down with injury…again. Then new starter QB Josh McCown gets hurt when they had a big lead on Baltimore and they lose the game as well. Now, Cleveland must not only start rookie QB Cody Kessler against Miami, but the team ALSO loses top pick Corey Coleman (broken hand), last year’s top pick OL Cameron Ervin (bruised lung) AND PK Patrick Murray (knee=IR) as well. Damn. It is hard for a team to lose so many players so early in the season, but of course, Cleveland finds a way to have bad enough luck to do it.  It is too early to talk 0-16…but wow. Miami, meanwhile just looks…bad. And they have injury woes too. With starting C Mike Pouncey (hip) and RB Arian Foster (groin) out and WR Davante Parker possibly out too, this is not going to be a high-scoring affair. At least it won’t be cold in Miami.

 Who wins? Whomever has players left at the end of the game…lol. Seriously, at least Miami has a viable QB in Ryan Tannehill to run things. If he goes down…not good. Let’s just pray that both teams survive this game without losing anyone else. I have to take the home team.  Miami can’t score, but Cleveland is even worse, and may well throw a pick-six or two, which will be enough to win this bad game.

Miami 20 Cleveland 9

New York Jets at Kansas City: KC is tough at home. Don’t I always say that? But it is true. Even without great RB Jamaal Charles (knee) again this week, these Chiefs are tough to handle. But this is not a defensive power team either with the injuries they are trying to weather. But so are the Jets. This game could well decide a wild-card playoff spot later if these teams are fighting for such at the end of the year. If you want a rugged, hard hitting game with not a lot of flash, THIS is your game.

Who wins? Tough call. Both teams are rugged, but it seems this will be a matter of attrition and who makes the fewest errors. Considering the Jets have already blown a game they should have won, and the Chiefs held on to steal a OT thriller over a game Chargers team in Week 1 AND the game is in KC….no brainer, I am taking the Chiefs.

Kansas City 27 New York Jets 24 (OT)

Minnesota at Carolina: Minnesota upset Green Bay! Great way to go to 2-0 and christen their new home. But they lost all-world (not this year) RB Adrian Peterson as well and OT Matt Kahlil to IR as well, though only Peterson, as of now, has a chance of returning this year. Now you ask them to go to a rather…distracted North Carolina to face the NFC champs? Damn that is not good. Minnesota has lots of experience with playing without Peterson, but this is Carolina..at full strength. What chance does the Vikings have as long as Carolina QB Cam Newton is upright? Unless he has the worst game of his life…I am thinking…none. This game could be ugly, and considering what is going on outside the stadium in Charlotte and in this state…..we cannot expect anything else.

Who wins? Minnesota’s replacements for Peterson at least have experience in this role and can help. Carolina’s starting RB Jonathan Stewart is out too. So expect an air show here. While new Vikings QB Sam Bradford does have talent, he is no Newton, and he doesn’t have enough to stop the champs in Charlotte, unless the distractions outside the stadium and the hangover of the opening loss at Denver causes enough errors for the Vikings defense to steal another win that will be huge for NFC playoff seeding later, IF the Vikings can make it to the end. With a shaky Green Bay facing surprisingly offensive Detroit in their home opener, the Vikings could have a big lead on the rest of the NFC North and over TWO NFC powers if they win. I don’t see the Panthers overlooking this game, but they have been known to play down to their opponents at times, and a badly wounded Vikings team is a perfect trap game situation. I am taking Minnesota in a BIG upset to go to 3-0 (WTF????).

Minnesota 30 Carolina 27 (OT)

Baltimore at Jacksonville: Baltimore’s season looked FUBAR when they fell behind 20-0 against Cleveland. But an injury to then-starter McCown, a VERY rare blocked PAT run back by the Ravens special teams for (their first) 2 points (of the game) and some luck helped Baltimore come back and win anyway. So they are 2-0 when they should have been maybe 0-2. The Jaguars was a trendy pick to rise up and steal an AFC playoff spot. But unfortunately, though they are better, a tough home loss to GB has them in a hole as usual. This is a must win for these young Jags, but can they find a way to beat a veteran Ravens squad with a lot to prove and a rare chance to gain ground on the AFC North, especially if the 2-0 Steelers ultimately lose the “Battle of Pennsylvania” to surprise 2-0 Philadelphia on MNF?

Who wins? Even if injured Jags RB Chris Ivory returns this week, I don’t think he is enough to help win this game. Baltimore has to start faster…but if they don’t and the Jags take advantage….upset happens. But I don’t see that happening with veteran QB Joe Flacco leading these Ravens. Experience matters and it all favors the road team. I am taking Baltimore this week…but you know I won’t next week..lol.

Baltimore 29 Jacksonville 20

Detroit at Green Bay: Oh no, Detroit. Good news: You play in Green Bay in September and not December for once. Bad news: Green Bay is pissed off after losing at Minnesota’s new stadium opening on SNF AFTER the Vikings lose Peterson in the game (who had done nothing good) and was already without Bridgewater. Not good. Detroit is different, and maybe more dangerous overall without the retired Calvin Johnson. But Detroit never wins in Green Bay in recent memory.  Detroit DID end their 24 game losing streak to this team in Wisconsin last fall. Is this Detroit team that much better than this Green Bay team? NO. But the struggles of the Pack and future HOF QB Aaron Rodgers both last year and now into 2016 is too big to ignore. Detroit believes they can win here now. And that spells trouble for the road-weary Packers in their home opener.

Who wins? Unless Rodgers and friends (remember WR Jordy Nelson is playing, where he was on IR (knee) all of last year) suddenly revert back to 2014 form and get efficient, I see struggle. Detroit QB Matthew Stafford can match Rodgers in passing yards, even with inferior pass-catchers and running backs. The gap may be smaller this time if Green Bay cannot score or control the clock on offense. That will be easier with Detroit’s linebackers now thin, but Detroit has a puncher’s chance. With GB not sharp…one punch is all it takes to fell the champ. Ask the Vikings about that. I am taking Detroit to upset GB before they go on their way too early (but maybe timely this year) bye week.

Detroit 23 Green Bay 22

Denver at Cincinnati: Denver is another team who is lucky to be 2-0. But doing it at home helps. Now they must win on the road, first doing so at the Bengals home opener. The beat up Bengals have to be a stern test for the young Broncos QB Trevor Simien and friends. Losing DE DeMarcus Ware (broken arm) for a while won’t help. The Bengals have not had their all-world TE Tyler Eifert (ankle) yet this year and could use him now. But Bengals QB Andy Dalton knows how to improvise…but the Super Bowl champ’s defense still has sharp teeth.  But can the Broncos less than stellar offense score enough to win the day, especially against a rugged Bengals defense who is pissed after another tough loss at Pittsburgh?

Who wins? The champs get a reality check on the road. The Bengals are a playoff team…and they have a better QB and they won’t back down to Denver. I think Denver has been charmed. Bengals, not so much. I have to take the home team here. Sorry. Bengals win.

Cincinnati 26 Denver 24

San Diego at Indianapolis: This will be a wild game. San Diego lost a heartbreaker at KC, then rallied to steal a win against the Jags. But they also lost RB Danny Woodhead AND WR Keenan Allen (again) for the year. Not good. But as long as QB Phillip Rivers is upright, the Chargers are tough with no-names on offense with him. The Colts have struggled with QB Andrew Luck and it doesn’t get better. I just watched on NFL Network’s NFL Total Access, an analyst projected that the Colts may only go 4-12 WITH Luck because the schedule is that tough and the Colts offense is so not good. He was right. What has the Colts added to improve this team on either side of the ball, besides a healthy QB? Nothing that matters. And weak defense is not good trying to stop Rivers. This will be nasty.

Who wins? Playing at home helps. But look, it wasn’t enough to stop DETROIT! San Diego in a lot of ways is a lot tougher to deal with than the defensively-challenged Lions, much less Denver last week. The Colts need Luck of 2013-14 to rally this squad. But the supporting cast still sucks since 13-14 and is no better now. Not enough against the Chargers. Chargers win.

San Diego 38 Indianapolis 31

Los Angeles at Tampa Bay: WTF? If you want to see stranger turnarounds from Week 1 to Week 2, watch the tape of these two teams. Yes, we know NOW the Seahawks offense is in deep bleep. But Tampa got embarrassed last week. Damn. Now they play each other in Florida. This will be wild. Remember, the Rams do have defense….and defense travels everywhere if they don’t screw up. Tampa, not so much. And now RB Doug Martin (hamstring) is out for a while, too? Oh, no. Tampa QB Jameis Winston needs a good running game…and now. Damn. Let’s be real. Barring turnover returns or special teams, I am not sure I would take the over for COMBINED points hitting 21. Really. I have Sunday Ticket and I almost don’t want to see this game.

Who wins: Who cares? Okay, first team to double figures wins. Okay..first to 15 wins. If you have the Rams defense in fantasy football…you may score double lotto here. Really. Defense wins titles…and ugly  no-offense games. I am not even sure the Rams will score their first TD in this game. Notice I said………….. touchdown…not offensive TD. I mean TD, period. I am serious. Go look it up. Even so. I am taking the Rams. Field goals count too, especially in bulk. Dallas did it once with 7 FGs and no TDs. Just saying.

Los Angeles 15 Tampa Bay 10

San Francisco at Seattle: Well, this was a major matchup in recent years. Today, it is just…ugly. I do think we will see more points than the Rams game I just discussed….but not by much. The Seahawks are so fucked up after LOSING to the RAMS 9-3. WTF? The Niners got smashed in Carolina after they smashed the same RAMS at home in Week 1. So who does something here? Hard to say. Not much more to say. Ugh.

Who wins: If Seattle QB Russell Wilson can move around better on his hurt ankle and help the pass game…Seattle can win at home. But new Niners coach Chip Kelly may have some plan for this game. He has faced Seattle before. Kelly’s offense surely cannot be held down that much by the Legion of Boom..right? The winner gets to keep with Arizona…the loser…hangs out because no one is running away with this division. At least not right now. I am taking the Niners for Seattle is not flipping that switch this week.

San Francisco 20 Seattle 12

Washington at New York Giants: This is a big game…ODB vs Norman aside. The Giants are a surprising 2-0, but must win to stay ahead of Dallas and keep up with the Eagles who might go to 3-0 on SNF. The Redskins have two tough losses already at home. Now they must rally on the road. For QB Kirk Cousins to prove he deserves the franchise tag money he got and the long term deal he wants, he must play better and win games, no matter who he has to throw to. But even so, it may be moot if the defense cannot stop a nasty Giants pass game. After having one good WR last year, QB Eli Manning has potentially THREE to throw to in Beckham, rookie Shepherd and the returned Victor Cruz. New Washington CB Josh Norman cannot cover all three all day. What will the rest of the defense do to slow the Giants offense down? Good question.

Who wins? The game might have been close if Washington had all of the pieces they have lost to defections or injury (and no I am not talking about Griffin III!). The bottom line is that the Giants can execute offense (specifically passing) again and the Redskins, even with Norman don’t have enough to stop them. 2-0, 0-2, doesn’t matter. I have to take New York. And..take the over of 2.5 combined penalties and/or personal fouls when Norman specifically guards Beckham in this game. I hope and don’t think one, the other or both will be thrown out…but I won’t be surprised.

New York Giants 30 Washington 20

Oakland at Tennessee: The new look Raiders defense can’t stop giving up yards. But at least penalties are down. However, getting a split between Atlanta and New Orleans is okay. Now they go out on the road again to face a dangerous Titans team. Can the Titans QB Marcus Mariota shred the Raiders. No. But the running game with RB DeMarco Murray might. But can the Titans stop the Raiders offense? No. We will have a shootout here.

Who wins? The Titans struggled to score on teams they could have done so on and made a lot of mistakes. The Raiders defense looked like shit….but the offense is just as dangerous. If Tennessee can’t score on this defense, they have no chance to stop the Raiders offense by giving them extra possessions. Offensively, the Raiders have a slight edge. Defensively, if the Raiders defense does better than the first two weeks, Oakland wins again. And that will happen, because Jack Del Rio will not allow less. Raiders steal another road win.

Oakland 38 Tennessee 30

  

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: The Battle of Pennsylvania. This is a real fight. But both teams are….undefeated? The Eagles being such is a surprise, the Steelers less so.This will be interesting. But these two teams are blue-collar teams and fits their locations perfectly. I expect a tough, hard fought game. To even think about expecting otherwise, would make one a uninformed football fan.

Who wins? The Steelers have experience on their side which matters. However, the Eagles do have youth and more weapons right now, with Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell out serving the last game of his suspension. Pittsburgh has adapted well without Bell so far, but playing the so-called "state championship NFL game" on the road, especially in Philly which is a tough place to win at for more reasons than one is one disadvantage that is hard to overcome. Clearly, the Eagles seem to have done the right thing trading up for rookie 2nd overall pick and sudden Week 1 starter Carson Wentz, but the season is still young. For this day, the Eagles will steal this one. It will be interesting to see where Wentz, these Eagles and these Steelers will be when the teams face each other again (in the regular season) in four years. Eagles win.

Philadelphia 37 Pittsburgh 34 (OT)

Sunday Night Football on NBC:
Chicago at Dallas: This is not a marquee SNF matchup.  The very weak Bears, who are without embattled QB Jay Cutler for a few weeks facing a Dallas team without QB Tony Romo, but rookie QB Dak Prescott looks really good. The winner stays at a decent level in the early season, the loser is already in a big hole. Other than watching Prescott and Dallas rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott, not much to see here.

Who wins? Bottom line, Dallas has more weapons that Chicago does. And they are playing at home in prime time. Right. Chicago will fight, but they will not win unless the injury bug strikes again. That would be strange, but won't happen. Dallas wins.

Dallas 30 Chicago 20

Monday Night Football on ESPN:

Atlanta at New Orleans: NFC South division war! This will be an offensive air show. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan vs Saints QB Drew Brees. Enough said. I don’t have to say more. There won’t be great defense at all. This will be fun and may be the most fun game on the entire MNF schedule. Don’t be late, get your food early and only do bathroom breaks at the end of quarters and halftime. Trust me. This will be good.

Who wins? Simple answer. MNF in the Superdome. Nobody wants to bleep with that. Too much magic and whatever in that place. And that won’t change here. Saints win in a major shootout. Tape this game for you will need replay to catch everything….lol.

New Orleans 53 Atlanta 48

Bonus picks: WWE Clash of Champions PPV projections:
    This is a Monday Night Raw-exclusive pay per view where every title on this roster is defended. Below is my predictions of the results of each match, though the "finish" may end differently or not at all if a major interruption and/or injury to a Superstar occurs that requires a match to be stopped (similar to Lesnar-Orton at SummerSlam):

Pre-show: Nia Jax defeats Alicia Fox via pinfall. Fox deserves a run to give her a shot at the Raw Womens Championship, but the former World champ is now just a steppingstone to Jax, who may ultimately get a push toward a title shot, but like Braun Strowman, likely won't for a while.

TJ Perkins defends the "new" WWE Cruiserweight title over Brian Kendrick: Perkins just won the title at the Cruiserweight Classic a few days ago. He is not losing it this fast, especially before a clear introduction of all the cruiserweights are seen and heard from on Raw.

Sami Zayn defeats Chris Jericho: Zayn needs this signature win over a former champ and finally gets it, for all the good that it does.

Cesaro defeats Sheamus to win best of 7 series 4-3. Sheamus is a multiple-time World Champion. Cesaro is not. Cesaro needs this win and the future title opportunity more than The Celtic Warrior. He finds a way to do it, and use Sheamus' arrogance and desperation to win, just like the Boston Red Sox did to the Yankees in the ALCS years ago. Nice.

Roman Reigns upsets Rusev to win the United States title. Reigns needs to be to the side to work on his image and be relevant on TV. Reigns is one of the few who can match with Rusev in power speed and moves despite his size. Reigns uses his speed and aggression to beat Rusev at his own game, even powering out of the Accolade finisher to win gold.

Gallows and Anderson defeat the New Day for the WWE Tag Team championship: The New Day has had a long run with the gold, breaking records. It is time for them to give the gold up, maybe go get some rest and come back to try to become 3-time champs. Tonight, they will do so, but not cleanly.

Bayley upsets Charlotte and Sasha Banks to win the Raw Womens Championship in a Triple Threat Match: This will be the match of the night. It will be a war, but not without controversy, but Bayley pins Charlotte to become champion. That will be a fun scene.

Kevin Owens retains the Universal Championship over Seth Rollins: Owens is a great heel and it will shown in this match. Rollins will cheat to win, but Owens will do more to keep the title. Simple as that. And it won't be clean pins.

NFL 2016 Season picks: Week Two: September 15-19, 2016, plus NASCAR Chase Race One at Chicagoland picks

Week Two: September 15-18, 2016

Last week's results: 8-8. Bonus picks: 4-2 Orton technically lost to Wyatt due to being attacked before the match, so I called it a loss, but I get two wins for correctly calling both results in the Tag Team tournament matches.

Thursday Night Football: CBS/NFL Network:

New York Jets at Buffalo: This game will be a war. The Jets played so-so against the Bengals and choked away a potential win and let Andy Dalton and A.J. Green carve them up...but only lost by 1. The Bills had no offense, but the defense, despite all of their preseason losses held the Ravens down and give them a chance. But the Ravens escaped with a win. Now they play each other on a short week. This game will be about defense, for neither offense will be good this week unless the defense break down a lot in this game. Who breaks first? or better yet, more often?

Who wins? Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor played not to good, but the resurgent Ravens defense and weak offensive weapons had a lot to do with that. Can the Jets do the same? Not on a short week. The Jets had more points and offense, but I am not liking what I see there, either. The Bills are at home and Taylor is a dangerous dual threat QB. But he cannot do it alone, and the defense has to help. The Jets have more on offense right now, and the defense, weak against the pass as it is, could be better this week, especially if Buffalo cannot run the ball again...that is whenever they can get on the field. The Jets can control the clock better and they have more weapons and their defense is at least equal to that of the Bills...which is not saying much. I am taking the road team here. Taylor will throw better, but that won't be enough with injured skill players. Sorry. Jets win (and won't choke for the second week in a row).

New York Jets 24 Buffalo 16

Sunday’s Games: September, 18, 2016

Tampa Bay at Arizona: Tampa, behind QB Jameis Winston looked damn good after a slow start in a upset win at Atlanta last week and they lead the NFC South...by themselves. The offense did well, but seeing WR Vincent Jackson basically do nothing and the Bucs scoring nothing in the 4th quarter as they held off the one-dimensional Falcons is a concern. Jackson needs to contribute this week like Mike Evans and the other receivers and tight ends did or he may be on the bench fast. Arizona, well, played okay, but truth be told, this team had no excuse for losing to a Patriots squad AT HOME with NO Brady (suspension) and a untested backup QB starting AND no Gronkowski (hamstring), period. True, the Cardinals PK should have made that game-winning kick, but one could say the same about PK Graham Gano of Carolina, too. There is a reason why kickers almost never go perfect on field goals during a season. It happens. Now, can a young Bucs team invade Arizona and steal another NFC road game, this time against a current NFC power? If they play the whole game, not 3 quarters like they did last week, yes they can. Arizona cannot fall to 0-2, with Seattle and SF (WTF?) both having won last week and one (Seattle) likely to go to 2-0. In-conference losses hurt almost as much as division losses. Doing it at home can be deadly to playoff hopes. Believe that.

Who wins? The Cardinals have experience and maturity and that means a lot. Youth and confidence goes a long way too. Tampa Bay has the latter and if Jackson shows up this week along with Evans at WR and Winston throws the ball as well as he did last week...the Cardinals won't win, for they won't score enough and the offense will not get enough chances to score. This defense is not the kind to get a lot of INTs or pick-six plays. I think Arizona will get it together...but not this week. I have to take Tampa and the major upset on the road. Sorry, Coach Arians.

Tampa Bay 40 Arizona 30

Tennessee at Detroit: Tennessee had the right plan to stop Minnesota last week....stop Adrian Peterson and score on offense. And they did. The problem is they were not supposed to let the Vikings DEFENSE score TDs against your offense. The Titans did just that (1 pick-six, 1 FR-six) back-to-back to let a winnable game at home slip away. The Lions roared back in Indianapolis and stole a win away from the Colts, with Andrew Luck in their first post-Calvin Johnson game. Now can the Lions go to 2-0 while Green Bay and Minnesota prepare for war in the opening of the new Vikings stadium late that night on SNF? If Lions QB Matthew Stafford plays like he did last week, YES!
However, the Titans have a good young QB in Marcus Mariota, but he had better protect the ball better than last week. And while throwing TD passes to new RB DeMarco Murray is nice, you kind of need him and rookie backup Derrick Henry running the ball for yards and TDs and running time off the clock and not fumbling it away. That is how they can win, right?

Who wins? The Titans could not do the little stuff against a QB (and RB)-challenged Vikings team at home. How are they going to do better on the road against a Lions team who has a QB, RBs (sort of) and pass catchers who can run AND catch? Without controlling the clock majorly....I don't think the Titans can win unless they do to Detroit with turnovers what Minnesota did to them. And this team is too young for that...right now. I have to take Detroit at home.

Detroit 30 Tennessee 21

Baltimore at Cleveland: Ugh. Cleveland played bad, as usual, RGIII played bad and got hurt, as usual, and the Browns got crushed on the road, as usual. The Ravens played tough defense, but the offense could not score more than 1 TD. But that was enough to win at home. Go figure. Now, Cleveland opens at home without Griffin III (gone till midseason, very likely for the year) and now turn back to QB Josh McCown as the undisputed starter. Good thing they didn't trade him. Can he do better? He can't do worse. Cleveland may do better at home with a steadier hand running the show. Don't forget, WR Josh Gordon does return in 3 weeks, so that can help if Cleveland can get a win or two before then. Okay, let's be real. This team sucks and they have a great shot at the first pick in the draft already. The Ravens can win this game handily like the Eagles did if the defense plays like they did last week....unless the offense is even worse than it was last week. That will not be good.

Who wins? The Ravens know that if they win, they will be 2-0 with the winner of the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh street fight that will be going on to the north. They need every win and every advantage if the Ravens wish to make the playoffs this year (and they cannot assume there will be a wild-card to grab). This is not a gimme win, but it is a winnable game that you cannot let slip away with tougher games coming up. I think Cleveland will be better and score more than last week...but not by much. Baltimore has too much experience and talent to blow this one. Ravens win in a close one.

Baltimore 24 Cleveland 16

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: Now to the aforementioned street fight. These teams hate each other. You saw the playoff game. You saw the regular season games last year. Enough said. The Steelers are at home, which means kicking will be FUBAR except at chip shot range. They have defense (some) and heart. They don't have RB Le'veon Bell or WR Martavius Bryant (suspensions), but as long as you have QB Ben Roethlisberger, WR Antonio Brown and the ageless RB DeAngelo Williams along with coach Mike Tomlin (NUPE!), you have a lot more than a puncher's chance to win. The Bengals have QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green...and not a lot behind them. The defense is okay, but not all that. Oh, and did I say they hate each other? Right, who plays better and who keeps their composure better wins this game. Watch this game, but it might not be for the faint at heart.

Who wins? The Bengals have a penchant for blowing important games for no good reason lately (see the playoffs last year...and for the last 5 years straight!). You cannot blame all of this on Dalton (injured and missed the playoff game) or Green (playing with injuries all the time). How Bengals coach Marvin Lewis still has his job here, I do not know. If he wants to be the coach in 2017, besides making and winning a playoff game this year, winning division road games like this will help. Dalton and Green will play well and hopefully NOT get hurt and it is too early to speak on the first two, but the Bengals are not doing the third...not this week. Pittsburgh is too strong in mind and talent and body to blow this game at home. And I meant all three literally. Steelers win.

Pittsburgh 28 Cincinnati 23

Kansas City at Houston: The Chiefs pulled out a exciting win at home over the Chargers last week, though they needed overtime to do it. They also did it without RB Jamaal Charles, still recovering from the injuries that cost him most of last year. This team, however won nearly every game including a road playoff beat-down of the QB-needy Texans without him. Assuming Charles does not play this week either, can they do it again? Maybe. Chiefs coach Andy Reid is good. So is QB Alex Smith (who ran in the game winning TD in OT) and they have weapons at WR and RB to handle the load. The defense, while not fully healthy, is solid. But so is that for Houston who won their opener here over Chicago with new starting QB Brock Osweiler doing his job, despite all-world DE J.J. Watt not having a big impact. The defense did their job and held down a shaky Bears offense. Can they do the same on the considerably better Chiefs or will we see a repeat of the blowout at the site of this season's Super Bowl?

Who wins? Houston should be worried since Watt and former top overall pick DE J. Clowney barely made the stat sheet against Chicago. But they both finished the game so that is a start. But Houston needs the full power Watt (forgive the pun) along with Clowney and the rest to be dominant to slow down the Chiefs, AND they need the offense under Osweiler to be on fire to keep Smith and the Chiefs offense off the field. And I am not convinced either will occur. KC will not steal this one like last week, but a win is a win. Still, one good hit on Smith will crush the house of cards the Chiefs have at QB, especially with their former backup now in Philadelphia. I am taking the Texans to find a way at home. I don't know what the record for overtime games (notice I didn't say wins) in one season for teams is, but KC may be well on their way to such after this one.

Houston 27 Kansas City 24 (OT)

Miami at New England: Miami should have stolen a win in Seattle...but choked it away in the final moments. New England should have lost at Arizona.....but they got help from a missed kick and bad offense from the Cardinals and won. The Patriots come home for the first of 3 straight at home, and the second of four games without Tom Brady. Backup QB Jimmy Garropolo did a good job and the Patriots look closer to the AFC power they have been in recent years rather than a team with their collective manhood chopped off with great malice. If TE Rob Gronkowski (hamstring) is able to play instead of staying home last week, this could be a worse beating for Miami, unless they can flip a switch and play well on offense and shut down the remaining Patriots on offense. Tall order indeed.

Who wins? For all of the bad things he did in Detroit, Miami DE N. Suh IS a very good defensive tackle. And for once, the pain he caused a opposing player, in this case, Seattle QB Russell Wilson was a accidental step on the foot that could happen to anyone. But if he and his defensive mates can stay in the face of Miami QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Adrian Foster and hold them down, Miami has a poor chance of stealing this one. Garropolo is better than most backup (and some starting) QBs in this league..and most don't have the weapons NE has to offer. I don't see Miami pulling this off...and how the hell does Miami always play in Foxboro while it is warm and not at the end of the year when it is cold? Crazy. Whatever. Patriots win...again.

New England 27 Miami 16


Jacksonville at San Diego: The Chargers lost a heart-breaker at KC in OT last week. Worse than than that, they lost their best WR, Keenan Allen for the year (again) with a torn ACL (this time). But, the season is not over...yet. As long as they have QB Phillip Rivers, this team is NOT a easy out. The Jaguars came close to upsetting the Packers at home...but they didn't. This game will be interesting and close. The heat of Jacksonville almost did the Packers in, but the heat of San Diego likely won't affect the Jags. If this game is close at the end....tossup.

Who wins? The Chargers are a tough team to beat at home, but the young Jaguars have enough pieces on both sides of the ball to steal this one. Point is, the Chargers are not the power the Packers are and if the Jaguars can steal a road win, this may be their best shot to do such the entire year...maybe. What the hell, I need a few upsets. I am taking the Jaguars to steal a win..in overtime.

Jacksonville 31 San Diego 28 (OT)

Seattle at Los Angeles: Perhaps it is fitting that the reborn Los Angeles Rams opens their return to the West Coast against two of the other teams that are on the West Coast having faced the Niners in their new home 6 days ago and opening their “temporary” new home against Seattle. Doing it in Weeks 1 and 2 is strange, but what can you do? The opponents were pre-set years ago, but the schedule-maker could have thought a little more on the placement in the schedule. Whatever.
    The Rams played like (bleep) in their opener, if you didn't stay up to watch it. I was annoyed. Rams coach Jeff Fisher may have been mad, but looked stoic for the entire game. Not good. Maybe doing Hard Knocks wasn't a good thing (I don't think they had a choice...oops). Now they get a Seattle time who also played like (bleep) at home, but had barely enough to beat Miami. Worse yet, QB Russell Wilson (ankle) is hurt and while he, by his own words, plans to play, Wilson will look like a shorter Dan Marino or Peyton Manning if he can't move around like he usually does. The Seattle defense did their job but Miami's offense played weak. However, even with a healthy RB Todd Gurley, the Rams offense is even worse. So either this could be the luckiest break in a while for Seattle that the Rams are the opponent or....some crazy (bleep) is about to befall the Seahawks on the road. Which will it be?

Who wins? The Rams could not score any points against a young Niners defense while they watched their own stout defense got run over and later lost their composure, unfortunately. Seattle's defense, led by (most of) The Legion of Boom secondary, is a lot better than that. Wilson's injury is a problem, especially if he doesn't play or is forced out early (the backup QB is Treyvon Boykin, by the way, and they have a third QB, Jake Heaps on the practice squad. I sense he might be activated to the active roster before Saturday, if Coach Pete Carroll is wise and careful). If that happens, Seattle is in deep bird (bleep), even against the Rams. A Rams win would be a big deal, especially if the Niners lose at Carolina  (right?) and if the Cardinals choke to the visiting Bucs. That keeps them in the division race, though it is early. But all that won't happen, right? LOL? Let's be real. Seattle could run the ball 40 times and get Wilson stand around and get this win. It just won't look pretty. Wins beat pretty losses any day. Seahawks escape, barely. I won't bet on the Rams getting more than 1 TD (if any) unless the defense or special teams scores twice. Unlikely. The Seahawks will drop the Rams to 0-2.

Seattle 20 Los Angeles 9


New Orleans at New York Giants: This could be a scoring party. True, the Saints are not the same team outdoors as they are in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome (or any other domed stadium) but when you have QB Drew Brees, no defense is safe. He will get yards, he will lead the team to score points. Unfortunately, their defense is not so good and is shorthanded. The Giants have QB Eli Manning and some weapons on offense too, including WRs Odell Bechham, Jr and the returned Victor Cruz who scored last week in his first game in nearly 2 calendar years. The defense was okay...but they were playing at Dallas with no Tony Romo, some guy who looked like Dez Bryant who barely made the score sheet, and the same boneheaded play with it matters most and allowed the Giants to not choke the game this time (wow!). The Saints could well run us any many points that they did against my Raiders...if not more...but can the Giants with their new coach, new look defense and old hand at QB keep up?

Who wins? Everybody who takes the over in combined points scored. The Giants get their PK back from suspension, but he likely will only be kicking PATs (hope he does not miss any, like the replacement did last week!) for touchdowns will be the name of the game here. The Giants may have faster CBs than Oakland's Sean Smith (damn), but those Saints WRs are faster than stock cars at Talledega (Google NASCAR and Talledega if you don't get the reference, kids.) and Brees knows how to use them. If Brees does NOT get better stats than last week, it will because 1) the Giants played a perfect defensive game...NOT 2) Brees and/or 2 of his WRs get hurt early..let's hope not or 3) the Giants run the ball really well, control the clock and the Saints offense gets less than 17 minutes of possession time...for the game. The Giants might do number 3 and that will be good. But the Saints will shred that defense and not need long possessions anyway. I am taking the old master over Mr. Patriot-killer this time. Saints win.

New Orleans 45 New York Giants 30

Indianapolis at Denver: It is kind of weird to see at Colts-Broncos game without Peyton Manning on the field for one or the other. But perhaps that is why this game is so early in the schedule. However, Colts QB Andrew Luck is back from last year's injuries and played well last week, only to watch the Lions use a late field goal and safety on the final play to steal the win away. The Broncos got away with a win last week when the game winning field goal was missed. But they face the dangerous Colts who can score points with Luck under center. Can their defense slow down the Colts enough to let young Broncos QB Trevor Siemien and the offense to keep up?

Who wins? Denver got away with a win against Carolina with a little help...leave it at that. Luck is smaller than Cam Newton, but he can throw with the best of them and can run some too. Denver's defense will be challenged like they were last week. But in the end, Denver's offense will not be able to save them..yet. I am taking the Colts.

Indianapolis 33 Denver 27

San Francisco at Carolina: Carolina had a chance to win in Denver, despite the beating (partially with hits that were not flagged) on reigning MVP QB Cam Newton, but Denver survived when the game winning field goal was missed after a timely "icing of the kicker". The Panthers enjoyed the weekend off and watched only Tampa Bay win in their division. Meanwhile, the Niners crushed the Rams way too easily (WTF?) at home on Monday night and now travel East on a short week to face the rather annoyed NFC champs. Worse yet, these Panthers are a lot stronger than the punch-less Rams. But if Newton is not at full strength or worse yet, goes down in this one, the Niners will have a real shot if backup QB Derek Anderson has to relieve Newton. Could the young Niners go to 2-0 and put playoff teams behind them (for now) and hang with the Seahawks like old times (figuring the Rams will NOT upset the Seahawks in their first game in their (former) and current temporary LA home?

Who wins? Logic says to take the Panthers at home. However, the status of the beat-up but tough Newton makes you have to wonder how ready and effective he will be (on the field), even with a extra couple of days to recover from the opener. New Niners coach Chip Kelly is not known as a defensive guru, but even he has to realize the opportunity his team has to pressure Newton and steal one on the road, right? Like I said, I have to pick a few upsets and this is a big one. I am taking the 49ers in a big upset.

San Francisco 29 Carolina 27

Dallas at Washington: Cowboys and Redskins...enough said. Dallas week is so much fun in the DC area. I am not really kidding. You live in the DMV, you know what I mean. Here are the changes for 2016: No RG III (IR with Cleveland) or RB Albert Morris (backup in Dallas) for Washington. No Tony Romo (hurt..again) or DeMarco Murray (starting in Tennessee) for Dallas. Dallas rookie starter Dak Prescott did okay against the Giants, but WR Dez Bryant barely showed up and the lack of awareness of the other Cowboys cost the Cowboys the chance at a long FG to win the game. The Redskins seemed to barely show up against the Steelers without some weapons, but had the two that matters the most and they crushed the Redskins. But this is Dallas week. Winning this game (and the rematch in Dallas later) means (in some ways) more than making the playoffs! But it is early for that kind of talk. This game is THE game in a lot places. This one will not be the prettiest in the rivalry, but it will be fun.

Who wins? The Redskins are far more intact and experienced on offense and defense than Dallas is. However, the young Dallas rookies have talent and Washington QB Kirk Cousins has been known for having some bad games, but usually not as bad as his predecessor at QB. If Cousins can run the offense on Sunday like he did last year to a division title, I don't think these Cowboys can keep up. This game is big for both teams, but figuring the rematch in Dallas may have a healthy Romo and at least some of the injured or suspended defenders back, (plus not wanting to potentially fall 2 games behind the Giants and Eagles so early), Washington will find a way to get this done. I am taking the home team.

Washington 30 Dallas 27


Atlanta at Oakland: The Falcons made a decent showing at home last week, but were shocked by the Buccaneers and 4 TDs from their QB Jameis Winston. The Raiders rallied from 17 down to steal a win in a tough place to win, New Orleans. Now the Raiders come home for their opener looking to go 2-0 for the first time in a long while and keep pace with Denver and KC and potentially be alone in first if the Raiders win and the others do get upset. Has this team turned that corner into a playoff team again? This game, like last week will go a long way toward proving such for these young Raiders.

Who wins? Atlanta is known to be less potent outdoors, but they are still dangerous with QB Matt Ryan under center. But with both starting receivers, including Julio Jones nursing injuries, their speed will be diminished and may work right into the hands of the Raiders defense and free agent pickup CB Sean Smith who got burned a lot by the smaller and faster Saints receivers. Here, he can get some redemption and confidence back before the Raiders go back on the road and start their conference schedule at Tennessee and Baltimore in the next two weeks. Bottom line, the Raiders are as dangerous and deep on offense as Tampa was and they have the defense to slow down the Falcons. Most importantly, this game is in Oakland and it is not easy to win here staring at the Black Hole. Period. Oakland is making their move and that process will continue here. Raiders win again..a little more comfortably this time, I hope.

Oakland 37 Atlanta 27

Sunday Night Football on NBC:

Green Bay at Minnesota: The long-awaited opening of Minnesota’s new stadium (and future Super Bowl site) has already been marred with the season-ending (if not more) loss of franchise QB Teddy Bridgewater in the preseason. However, the Vikings stood tough in Nashville, and beat the Titans with 2 defensive TDs and not with all-world RB Adrian Peterson, who was shut down. Green Bay will be a much harder task, even at home. The Packers survived a late comeback and the heat of Jacksonville and will be happy to be indoors for this one. If the Vikings want to be in the playoffs again and hopefully get a home playoff game for their new home and future Super Bowl site, this is a must win game. Green Bay has less pressure, but a division (and conference) road loss could be problematic later. You never know how a week 2 loss can screw you up in Week 17.

Who wins? The emotions will favor Minnesota and being at home will be great, but to get their biggest rival in that first home game is tough. But if they win, the momentum is big and could help the franchise in a lot of ways. And do it in prime time! I see a upset coming and I am taking the Vikings to get this win to christen their new home...and do it with a field goal late in overtime. Sorry, Green Bay...no Hail Mary winner this time. Vikings win.

Minnesota 34 Green Bay 31 (OT)


Monday Night Football: September 19, 2016

Philadelphia at Chicago: Pennsylvania’s other NFL team gets an early MNF appearance. They crushed a hapless Cleveland team at home who was over-matched, even with Philly's rookie quarterback starting Week 1, especially after the new Cleveland QB, Robert Griffin III was injured on a play where he was on the wrong place on the sideline at the wrong time. Chicago and their oft-injured QB Jay Cutler was decent, but spent much of the game running for his life. He is kind of familiar with that. So the Bears, with the support of President Obama come home to face the new look Eagles. But these Bears don't have the teeth that Bears teams of old did. And they need such to beat these Eagles. True the Bears should be a tougher challenge than the Browns were in Philly. But will they? Figuring the Giants might lose to the dangerous Saints and someone must win Cowboys-Redskins and both already have a loss, the Eagles have a chance to move into first alone, depending on those results and get momentum over the rest of the NFC East. But will they?

Who wins? The Bears have pride and they are not totally weaponless. But even Cutler and the offense at their best may not be enough, for their defense does not seem ready for a Eagles team with some weapons and a rookie QB who might really be pretty good..though it is too early to tell. Without the great defenses of yesteryear, these Bears may slow down, but won't beat these Eagles. Sorry, Mr. President, but I am taking the Eagles.

Philadelphia 28 Chicago 17

NFL 2016 NFL season picks: Week One: September 9-12, 2016

Week One: September 9-12, 2016

Thursday Night Football: Opening Game on NBC:

Carolina at Denver: It is rare for the teams that face each other in the Super Bowl to face each other in the season after they meet in the championship game. It is rarer (but it has happened) for the two teams to face each other in the next Super Bowl…but it is just as rare for the teams to play each other in the first game of the year, which is (normally) a home showcase for the defending champs. But here we are. Carolina returns mostly intact from last year’s NFC Championship team, except for the surprise release of outspoken CB Josh Norman (signed almost immediately by Washington) and the return of WR Kelvin Benjamin (lost in preseason for the year last year). Denver…not so much. Besides the not-unexpected retirement of future Hall of Fame QB Peyton Manning, you had the normal group of players leaving for big money with other teams. What was surprising that not that young former starter Brock Osweiler left for a big contract with Houston instead of being the almost-sure incumbent with the champs, but that the Broncos didn’t try hard to keep him, knowing the QB free agent market was weak and Manning was gone. So young backup Trevor Siemian (who?) is the starter this year. This could turn out to be a genius move or…the alternative.

Who wins? Carolina wants revenge…Denver needs a good start at home. Denver still most of their great defense as well as their shaky offensive line and good runners and receivers, but knowing what Denver has lost and they are trying to trade some players, like CB Aqib Talib and HB Ronnie Hillman…hmmm. These are things that you don’t want to see so early, especially a defending champ. Carolina’s defense is still good without Norman, but the return of a health Benjamin gives QB Cam Newton another weapon and one he didn’t have last year. Defense wins championships as the Broncos proved in the Super Bowl, but you need offense too. I am not convinced Denver will be ready on offense in Week 1. I am taking the Panthers.

Carolina 24 Denver 17

Sunday’s Games: September, 11, 2016

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: This will be a scoring fest. The Buccaneers are getting better especially on offense. Second year QB Jameis Winston could be real good and has weapons around him. The same thing could be said for Atlanta with their own very good QB in Matt Ryan. But other than young RB Devonta Freeman, I am not sold on WR Julio Jones and the other offensive weapons staying healthy AND producing big every week. Plus Atlanta’s defense is not that inspiring.

Who wins? The team that makes the fewest errors. I do think this will be a sleeper for the highest (combined) scoring game of the week, but you never know. I just having a feeling that Tampa will pull this out....somehow. Tampa wins.

Tampa Bay 41 Atlanta 38 (OT)

Minnesota at Tennessee: Both teams have a lot of questions. But Minnesota losing QB Teddy Bridgewater for at least this year is huge. True, the trade for QB Sam Bradford who will have to be starter eventually, if not this Sunday (and it won't be for the backup Shawn Hill will start Week 1), but the steep price tag..is it worth it for this year, much less 2017? Bradford, who is not known for being super-healthy either but has talent, may be worth it if he stays healthy…especially if Bridgewater is not ready to return in the early part of 2017. Still, Minnesota still has young wide-outs and the dangerous RB Adrian Peterson in the backfield, who can be as valuable at Bridgewater IF he stays healthy and productive. The Titans continue to rebuild, but they have weapons around young QB Marcus Mariota, as long as he also stays healthy. The additions of RB DeMarco Murray and high draft pick Derrick Henry may give this team the best running 1-2 punch in football, plus Mariota who is rather mobile too. If the defense can do well and keep the Titans in games so the running banks can grind defenses down…upsets can happen and the Titans may make a lot of noise in a still-shaky AFC South.

Who wins? Is Peterson better than Murray and Henry combined? Perhaps. The emotional advantage is with the Vikings knowing they open their new home in Week 2 against Green Bay and knowing a win here will be huge if they also beat Green Bay. But the Titans knows they are a sleeper team and winning the AFC South is not a impossibility with a very shaky Texans (and Colts team) in their division along with fellow sleeper Jacksonville who seems to be at a similar level as the Titans as of now. The winner could be on their way to a big year...maybe not. But I think the Vikings will be looking ahead to the home opener and has too much distraction as to their quarterback situation and the Titans will take advantage with time of possession. Titans win.

Tennessee 28 Minnesota 23

Cleveland at Philadelphia: Another year…another mess of a Cleveland Browns team.  Is new starter Robert Griffin III the answer at QB? If he is, we will not know after week 1. Cleveland doesn’t have a lot, but they have a little bit and the return of WR Josh Gordon in the fifth game (suspension and more) could help new coach Hue Jackson do something…if he Gordon stays off the drugs and Griffin can produce and stay healthy. The Eagles spent a lot to get the 2nd overall pick to draft QB Carson Wentz and also get backup Chase Daniel when they still had Bradford on a big 2 year deal. They may have hit a mini-lotto by trading away Bradford to QB-needy Minnesota and getting their 2017 1st round pick back. If Wentz has a rookie year anywhere close to what Griffin III did for Washington 4 years ago (Rookie of the Year, division title), the Eagles could be back under fellow rookie coach and former player Scott Pederson. Philly needs to win this one. Both teams do.

Who wins? I don’t know. The rookie QB versus the good, but injury prone QB? Toss up. But Cleveland’s luck as a team has been worse than the Eagles. But if Wentz is not as recovered from his preseason rib injuries as the team thinks he is…not good, and the backup in Daniel is talented on paper, but not proven either. This is a pick ‘em game, but I am taking Cleveland to steal one because Griffin does know how to play and hopefully win in Philly. Experience is the difference here, but not by much.

Cleveland 30 Philadelphia 27 (OT)

Cincinnati at New York Jets: The Bengals are a tough team that makes the playoffs, but can’t get past one-and-done. The Jets are shaky too, but the AFC East may be more wide open with the issues of the Patriots (at least for September) but a quick start, especially if the other AFC East teams struggle…could coach Todd Bowles sneak the Jets to the playoffs? Is Bengals QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green healthy? If not, the Bengals may not have to worry about a sixth straight playoff appearance and potential choke. This game will be ugly…but wait until next week.

Who wins? The Bengals can win in the regular season, but the constant underachieving and the constant injuries give me no faith in this team in 2016. Show me something good….or better than the same record of the last 5 years. The Jets are on their way back and have their main weapons back, but can they stay healthy and can starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick do more to help the Jets more wins? No idea, but I am taking the Jets at home in New Jersey on an emotional day in the NY/NJ area. Keeping it real.

New York Jets 30 Cincinnati 24

San Diego at Kansas City: This AFC West battle will be a war…of attrition perhaps? San Diego QB Phillip Rivers is a top QB. KC QB Alex Smith is good and steady too. After that…who knows? The running game is shaky on both sides with some players out for the year, some returning after a major injury. Will San Diego RB Melvin Gordon actually score a TD? Will KC RB Jamaal Charles even play? I just don’t know how this will go, but if Denver loses on Thursday night, the winner of this team may lead the AFC West and that can mean everything later.

Who wins? KC coach Andy Reid is experienced and Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to play or win, period. Home field may carry the day, if Reid doesn’t make mistakes in calling plays and the supporting cast of San Diego doesn’t help Rivers. I have to take experience and home field in this one, especially if Charles DOESN’T play. Remember last year? Right. Chiefs win.

Kansas City 27 San Diego 23

Buffalo at Baltimore: This is a game with two teams with a lot to prove. Can Buffalo coach Rex Ryan, with his twin brother Rob by his side get Buffalo back to relevance, especially with the Patriots’ having issues at least in the short term? Can Baltimore, returning QB Joe Flacco and their injured stars come back and be a factor in the AFC North again? Good question. The game may show some answers, but likely not really…in week 1.

Who wins? Baltimore is tough at home….but have experience and can do damage especially on offense. I know that Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor is dangerous, but where is the supporting cast? Defense? Plus Ryan can be shaky as a coach. Then the Bills must travel to Jersey to face the Jets on a short week…not good. I am taking the Ravens at home.

Baltimore 27 Buffalo 21

Chicago at Houston: This game will be….oh my.  I am not liking what I am seeing. The Bears don’t look like they are any different, never mind better than last year. True, they get to have last year’s top pick WR Kevin White on the field after injury cost him last year. But you still have QB Jay Cutler. Oh no. If he plays well….who knows? If not…we all know. Houston finally addressed their ugly QB situation by plucking free agent QB Brock Osweiler from Denver. Can he get the Houston offense going and get lots of passes to WR DeAndre Hopkins and friends? IF he does, the Texans could be great if their defense can get it done, especially with the Colts expected to rebound from an injury-plagued 2015. We will see a lot in week 1 for this is a winnable game at home…right?

Who wins? The Bears could go in and win this one….but Houston (forget last year’s playoff game) is tough on defense and at home. And they have a QB and DE J.J. Watt and J. Clowney are both playing…we think. I think Houston pulls this out. But it won’t be easy.

Houston 28 Chicago 20

Green Bay at Jacksonville: Jacksonville has a lot of young pieces both on offense and defense and they are at home. Good…but…they face Green Bay…and QB Aaron Rodgers…and he gets favorite target WR Jordy Nelson (knee, missed all of 2015) back. Oh boy…I smell trouble.

Who wins? Jacksonville could get a major upset if they win here. But an experienced Packers squad with everyone at full strength is hard to beat. Could they be looking ahead to the road game at Minnesota in week 2? I doubt it, especially not now.  Sorry, Jags…Green Bay is not going there. Packers win.

Green Bay 34 Jacksonville 23

Miami at Seattle: The Dolphins have weapons and could be dangerous this year, adding former Houston RB Arian Foster to lead the run game and take pressure of the passing game. But…that defense…I don’t know. I am not seeing it. Now they start the year in Seattle? You really think that defense can stop Seattle QB Russell Wilson and this offense, even if RB Thomas Rawls and the new-look running game and TE Jimmy Graham is not full strength? Do you really think the Miami offense with QB Ryan Tannehill can beat the Legion of the Boom Seattle secondary? And the 12th Man? Right.

Who wins? Miami is a southern version of Cincinnati with more excuses, hype and fewer wins (in recent years).  I see no way they can beat up the Seattle defense without a perfect game. And trust me, teams virtually never have a perfect game in Week 1. I am taking Seattle.

Seattle 30 Miami 20

New York Giants at Dallas: Again? The schedule-maker loves setting this up to start the year. But it is not on SNF this time. You know the story in Dallas. Now we find out if rookie QB Dak Prescott has real game and may be the future answer for injured starter Tony Romo. Now we find out if the Giants with a new coach and a lot of new and expensive defensive pieces and old pro (and the only Manning playing now) QB Eli Manning and WR Victor Cruz and friends can help WR Odell Beckham, Jr. bring Big Blue back to relevance…as a team. Hmmmmm.

Who wins? Dallas is starting a rookie at RB and QB for the first time in decades. They still have that offensive line, but that defense….not so good with injuries and suspensions galore. And is WR Dez Bryant heathy or not? If the Giants can’t win this time (and they don’t do dumb bleep in crunch time to give the game away)…what excuses do you have this time? I likely will regret this, but I am taking the Giants. Again. Damn.

New York Giants 30 Dallas 27 (OT)

Detroit at Indianapolis:  Detroit has reeled with the sudden retirement of WR Calvin Johnson…but life and football goes on. The Lions have tried to replenish their offense to give QB Matthew Stafford some reliable weapons and a defense that still looks real weak. The Colts look happier with franchise QB Andrew Luck re-signed and back from his injuries of 2015. But is the rest of the roster any better? I don’t think so. In a weak AFC South, if Luck plays well and is able to play the whole season, the Colts could be back in the playoffs…big IF. This is a good way to start…maybe.

Who wins? Detroit has some pieces and adding WR Anquan Boldin as a free agent could help a little….but that defense is still not good. And Luck is real good and picking his way through bad defenses. A healthy Luck with a little help can beat a lot of teams…including this one..at home. Colts win.

Indianapolis 34 Detroit 23

Oakland at New Orleans: The Saints are a proud franchise and this team is a different team when they play at home, especially with future Hall of Fame (and re-signed) QB Drew Brees under center. Will he be the modern-day George Blanda? We will not know for a few years yet, but I would not bet against it. And remember, he is far from the biggest or most mobile QBs around. In fact he is one of the smallest. But he is one of the smartest and the best at what he does, period. He has offensive weapons too. But that defense...ugh. Look, teams can win some games with a weak defense, especially in the pass-happy NFL of 2016. But not here. The Raiders are rising from the ashes fast, and they have the young core on offense AND defense to end the long playoff and outright winning season droughts...and maybe fight for a shot at Super Bowl LI? That is what many think...and Week 1 won't prove such one way or the other....but this could be ugly.

Who wins? The Saints with Brees WILL get yards...and should get some points. But the Raiders have the offensive weapons to match and a better line to protect Pro Bowl QB Derek Carr. They also have a better defense, led by 2 position (first time ever voted as such for two positions in the same year!) All-Pro DE/LB Khalil Mack. And he has a LOT of help. The Raiders will have too much to be stopped and the defense will make sure the Saints offense will not keep up on the scoreboard. Oakland wins in a mini-shootout.

Oakland 40 New Orleans 31

Sunday Night Football on NBC:

New England at Arizona: This game is a big one and could be a Super Bowl preview, perhaps? I don’t think so. But now we get to see the future of the Patriots without QB Tom Brady, suspended (finally!) for the first four games for Deflategate (that should have happened last year at this time). Unfortunately, all-world TE Rob Gronkowski (hamstring) is out, too. Temporary starter QB Jimmy Garrapollo seems to have game, but can he lead the Patriots to wins against a tough schedule? Good luck with that. Arizona returns most of their team from last year and get re-signed FS Tyronn Mathieu back as well. This will be fun to watch in prime-time. Well, not as much as it seemed a few months ago when the schedule was released.

Who wins? If this game was in New England, I would like their chances. (not so much now!) But it is not. And Arizona has weapons led by QB Carson Palmer and future Hall of Fame WR Larry Fitzgerald and a tough defense. This would be a test with Brady and Gronk playing, which is why the schedule makers put this game here. Too bad Brady and Gronk will have to watch this game and more (in Brady's case for sure) from their couch. This will be wild. I am taking Arizona.

Arizona 30 New England 14

Monday Night Football: Opening Doubleheader on ESPN: September 12, 2016

Pittsburgh at Washington: The Steelers are already hurting with injuries, but this is a team, a coach in Mike Tomlin (NUPE!) and a franchise who even this Raiders fan has to admit is tough as hell and who is never a easy out..ever. The Redskins are looking dangerous, but though RGIII is gone, QB Kirk Cousins has to prove 2015 wasn’t a fluke to get his big payday (though the money he is getting under the franchise tag for 2016 says otherwise, right). This team is similar to last year, but with a couple of losses beside Griffin III (RB Alfred Morris leaves for Dallas as a free agent, DE Junior Gallette on season IR AGAIN) and one big unexpected gain (signing Carolina castoff CB Josh Norman) similar to how they got WR DeSean Jackson a few years ago. Can these guys defend their surprise NFC East title? Maybe. This will be tough way to start on that course…especially with the Romo-less Cowboys coming into town next Sunday. On a short week. Ouch.

Who wins? You can never count out Pittsburgh. But this is a test that Washington needs to have to get going before they face a tough division schedule, injuries notwithstanding. All I can say is if Cousins doesn’t produce or worse, gets hurt….remember who the backup QBs are. And I hope that defense is better than last year. I am taking the Redskins…but with a big amount skepticism. Show me you are real and not just lucky. Oh, and that DC traffic for these two weeks…and the Nationals rolling? Damn.

Washington 31 Pittsburgh 28 (OT).

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco: It is nice to type "Los Angeles Rams" again. Isn't it cool? Unfortunately, these Niners are a lot weaker than the one that was here when the Rams franchise left for St. Louis nearly 20 years ago and ultimately won the franchise's only Super Bowl. The drama around current backup Niners QB Colin Kaepernick is beside the point. We will see plenty of such long before this game comes up (for once, the schedule makers got it right). Now, the game. The Rams have weapons, the Niners less so. Let's be real, most of the East Coast will be asleep for most of this (with luck, I won't be). This will almost surely not be the best played game of this week. So be it. It is NFL football for real...so real fans will deal with it.

Who wins? The Rams for once has most of the factors on their side, which hasn't happened much since these teams were facing each other twice a year in the 1990s (yes, the move to St. Louis did NOT move them from the NFC West and they still played each other twice a year...I merely point out how different the directions of the franchises were before the Rams moved east). At least for this game, the Rams, who also have better coaching...for now...will take advantage. Rams win.

Los Angeles 30 San Francisco 20


Bonus picks: WWE Backlash results from Richmond:

WWE World Champion Dean Ambrose retains against A.J. Styles
Dolph Ziggler beats The Miz by disqulification (probably due to intereference by the Miz's wife, former Womens champion Maryse), but Miz retains the Intercontinental title
Randy Orton beats Bray Wyatt with a surprise RKO, but will get beat down afterwards

Smackdown Tag Team Championship Tournament:
    The Usos beat The Hype Bros (second chance semifinal after American Alpha is out due to injury caused by a Usos attack losing to Alpha in one semifinal) and advance to the final, but are upset by the other finalists, Rhyno and Heath Slater to win the new tag team titles and a Smackdown Live! WWE contract for Slater (a loss means no contract for Slater).

Smackdown Womens Championship Six-Pack Challenge:
    All six ladies will have their moments, but NXT to Smackdown draftees Carmella and Alexa Bliss and former Womens champion Natayla will not factor in the final decision. Naomi and former Womens champion Nikki Bella (returning from January neck surgery) will beat each other down, but Becky Lynch will steal the pin or submission win and become the first Smackdown Womens Champion (and be the last of the former NXT "Four Horsewomen" to win a Womens (NXT or WWE-level) championship).