My picks for the NFL's Conference Championship games...winners go to the Super Bowl!

    Okay, everyone. I broke even (2-2) on my picks last week. The teams that many thought would be in the conference championship rounds in August/September is here. We will have two hard fought games.  My thoughts are below.  Enjoy Championship Sunday!!!! Super Bowl XLVIII is two weeks from Sunday evening!

NFL Conference Finals:

AFC: New England (2) at Denver (1)

   This game is branded as Brady versus Manning 15, but this game comes down to a lot more than two future HOF quarterbacks facing each other…possibly for the last time (in the playoffs...maybe). These are the bottom lines. Both teams have shaky to poor defenses. Some of it is due to injuries, some to lack of talent and some to otherwise dumb **** that the team had no control over. Both teams can run well (at least lately). This game will come down to the little stuff. Turnovers. Special teams making (and/or preventing) big plays. It is projected to be unseasonably warm in Denver on Sunday so the “Peyton cannot win in the cold” thing is moot. Denver has the better overall offense, but even with the injuries and so on, the Patriots have an slight edge on defense.  But seriously, can you believe that Denver coach John Fox is In the same paragraph as New England coach Bill Belichick? Right. Yes, I know Belichick has never been in (or may ever will be) a Madden game (but there IS a good reason for that. Google it and read the story).  The little things and the other 52 players on these teams will decide this game, not the two golden arms. Despite their offensive advantages, Denver is going to run out of gas versus a team who 1) doesn’t fear Manning 2) can find ways to slow/stop Manning, even with (allegedly) inferior players on offense. Brady is going to find a way to win…again over Peyton. Pats win.

New England 30 Denver 24

NFC: San Francisco (5) at Seattle (1)

       Everyone talks about the home-field advantage Seattle has. It is nice to have, but home field alone is not enough to win this game. Seattle has the tools to win this game with QB Russell Wilson RB Marshawn Lynch, the great secondary and so on. Losing WR Percy Harvin (concussion) for this game is too bad, but he wasn’t am major factor anyway. Next year, he can try again. The defending NFC champion Niners are also feeling pretty good. All of their major offensive pieces are back in place for QB Colin Kaepernick. The defense is very strong and it will not break easily. They were tested for a bit at Carolina, but the Seahawks are better. This is the third and final meeting between these two teams. All or nothing. Winner take all. Each team won at home, Seattle by a bit larger margin early in the year at home. Here is the bottom line. Seattle is awesome at home, but they haven’t looked so great in the second half of the year. San Francisco looked shaky for the first half of the year, especially after the Seattle loss on the road, but in the last 6-8 weeks, including the two playoff wins, the Niners have looked like the defending NFC champs that they are. Momentum is a big thing, and the Niners seems to have a lot more of it than Seattle right now. They also have the experience edge, having been in the Super Bowl last year. For all the bluster and BS that has been spewed, all that matters is what happens Sunday night. I do think the Seahawks, if they stay their course will be in the Super Bowl soon. But not this year. I am taking the Niners in an upset.

San Francisco 31 Seattle 28 (OT)

Think my picks suck? Send me a reply and tell me why! Good luck to everyone.

NFL picks: 135-118-1 regular season, 5-3 in the playoffs; 54-44 on bonus picks; Total: 194-165-1 overall (as of January 18, 2014).

My picks for the 2014 NFL Divisional playoffs

The final bowl games were wild, but the NFL's first week of playoff games were wilder. I see more of the same this week as the playoffs continue. Less snow and cold, but more craziness. Remember, history says that at least one top seed or maybe both probably LOSES in this round. Will this happen again with both 6 seeds advancing to face the top seeds on the road....both in rematches? We will see.

NFL Divisional playoffs:

Saturday:

New Orleans at Seattle: The Saints had a groundbreaking win last week at Philadelphia. Winning their first road playoff game in the franchise’s history was big. But they had breaks in weather and in the way the Eagles failed to win the game. That was then. Now, the 6 seed has a much bigger challenge in the 1 seed Seattle Seahawks. The Saints know how hard it is to win in Seattle, having tried and failed on MNF a few weeks ago. But that was also then. This is now. Seattle has a great home-field advantage but can they defend it? If the Seahawks can play their kind of balanced football, with the running game of RB Marshawn Lynch, and the passing attack of QB Russell Wilson and strong defense led by their secondary called the Legion of Boom, then that should be no problem. But, the Saints have a great offense too, led by QB Drew Brees. Philadelphia did not have the defense to stop the Saints, even at home, it turned out. Seattle, on paper, does. But if the defense fails, can the offense keep up with the Saints on the scoreboard, if the weather allows for a high scoring game? Lastly, Saints coach Sean Payton is one of the best in the game and that gives the Saints a decided advantage over Seattle coach Pete Carroll. Can Carroll keep up with the unpredictable Payton, especially in a winner-take-all playoff game, even at home? I think not. With the extra tape of the earlier game in hand, I am taking the Saints in another upset. I don’t think Seattle can win 2 games over the Saints in the same year, nor do I think they can win the NFC...this year.

New Orleans 38 Seattle 37

Indianapolis at New England: The Colts are a dangerous team, too. But they are far less dangerous on the road. The classic (OH NO!) of all dome team is winning on the road, with bad weather and/or cold and/or rain coming down. These Colts have the offense to beat these Patriots. But in Foxboro, in January? I am not convinced. The Colts needed home field, bad play calling, turnovers, and several key injuries during the game and a lot of TD passes from QB Andrew Luck to beat KC and coach Andy Reid (famous for choking games) by 1 point. Not here. The Patriots are less potent than previous years due to so many losses in personnel due to injury and other things. But they still have their coach and their QB, Tom Brady. With those two still here, they find a way to win, especially in the playoffs. But, this team is .500 in the playoffs since their last Super Bowl win nearly a decade ago. Most of those losses were not in Foxboro (last year’s AFC final loss to Baltimore was a rare one). The new-look Colts are good and will be good for a while. But Luck and company are not quite there yet. The Saints have the experience to steal two road wins in the playoffs. These Colts are not ready to steal one….yet. I am taking the Patriots.

New England 31 Indianapolis 28 (OT)

Sunday:

San Francisco at Carolina: This is another rematch game and potentially the hardest-hitting of the four this week. Carolina beat SF 10-9 at Candlestick Park in a defensive struggle at a time the Niners were struggling all-around. That was then, this is now. The Niners are feeling stronger now with a late season run of wins including at Seattle and at COLD as **** Green Bay last week in the wild-card game. The Saints’ road upset of the Eagles allowed the Niners to delay a third meeting with top seed Seattle and instead get the Panthers.  The Panthers have also grown a lot in the last few weeks, have a mostly healthy squad and home-field. But will it be enough against the defending NFC champs? Maybe. This will be a show of two great defenses against two very good offenses. The differences is that the Panthers will have WR Steve Smith ailing, along with others, including their two best running backs, and the Niners will have WR Michael Crabtree, who was still recovering from offseason surgery when the teams played before. This game will be close, and I almost expect this to go to OT. Whichever team makes the most mistakes and/or turnovers will win. I have to take the Niners and their experience in a tight one.

San Francisco 31 Carolina 28 (OT)

San Diego at Denver: Another rematch game and the most watched one of the week. Can Peyton Manning get it done and advance the Broncos past the divisional round this year? This challenger will be tougher in some ways than Baltimore was last year. San Diego is in the AFC West and knows Denver all too well. Despite being the AFC 6 seed in controversial fashion, the Chargers have been on fire of late. Most importantly, as part of the recent surge, these Chargers upset Denver at home a few weeks ago, a loss that might have cost the Broncos the division and the top seed if they hadn’t took care of business in two wins over KC previously. SD has given the Broncos fits in recent years and they have great momentum coming in, including the upset at Cincinnati last week. SD QB Phillip Rivers is on fire of late and is one of the few QBs who could go pass for pass with Peyton Manning. But all good QBs need help, and the Broncos have more of it…on offense. You know the wideouts, the running backs, and the surprise star tight end that catch Manning’s passes. But SD has offensive weapons, too.  But there is still that defense. Denver has one of the worst defenses in football, part due to injury, part due to lack of skill, part due to dumb BS in the offseason that was outside of the team’s control. But when you have an offense that routinely breaks 40 points a game; that will mask a lot of deficiencies in other areas. But that is regular season. This is the playoffs.  Last year the defense cost Denver a shot at the AFC title game, along with Manning’s own mistakes. San Diego’s defense is okay, less known. But they are effective against Denver. Who wins? Denver has the weapons to win, but not the heart as a whole. The Chargers want and need this win more, for their franchise and their city. Denver leans on those two Super Bowls from 20 years ago. Yet that cannot get back to try to win more, try as they might. The drought continues. I am taking the Chargers.

San Diego 28 Denver 27

Bonus games: The bowl games are finally all done. I did not do that great. I finished 19-16 on bowl picks, but I did get the (last, thank goodness!) BCS championship game right. That counts for something..lol. I also went 3-1 on NFL picks last week, and I don’t feel bad about the one that I missed (KC) for they probably would have gotten crushed this week if they had won anyway, with all those injuries. Oh well. Just as well. 

Think my picks suck? Send me a reply and tell me why! Good luck to everyone.

NFL picks: 135-118-1 regular season, 3-1 in the playoffs; 54-44 on bonus picks; Total: 192-163-1 overall (as of January 11, 2014).

My picks for the 2014 NFL Wild-Card Playoff Games Happy New Year!

    These are my picks for the NFL wild-card playoffs. Kept it simple. Enjoy and Happy New Year!

 

NFL Wildcard playoffs:

Saturday:

Kansas City at Indianapolis: Depending on other results, this game is probably going to be the only indoor game in the entire playoffs (all of the other teams are outdoor teams or are a six seed (New Orleans), hence they will not host a playoff game, no matter what). The Chiefs rested almost all of their best players in a meaningless (for them) game at San Diego, yet nearly beat the Chargers who played everyone (should have, but official error prevented the chance for that!) anyway. The Chiefs almost always win close games (this year), last week notwithstanding. They played the Colts two weeks ago at home and the Colts won. What makes the rematch any different? I think playing indoors and not having weather as a factor will make a difference. The Colts have started out real slow (at home) lately, which is a concern, though they did not the last two weeks. I sense the Chiefs didn’t try that hard then since they knew what seed they were locked in and the Colts were too, though if the Patriots had lost last week, this game would have been in snowy southern New England instead. I sense the Chiefs have a few new plays to use for this game. More importantly, the considerably better running game of the Chiefs will be a factor. Ball control is key.

    The longer the Colts offense and QB Andrew Luck is on the sideline, the better it is for the Chiefs. While the Chiefs defense is strong, it still isn’t full strength with the injuries they suffered down the stretch. The Colts offense can be explosive, but it is not all the time and the defense is middle-of-the road, at best. KC QB Alex Smith does have more playoff experience than Luck, and so does coach Andy Reid. Colts coach Chuck Pagano is good, but that lack of experience versus Reid, plus the weak running game will make the difference. The best way to beat the Chiefs is to have the ball a lot and score a lot. I don’t think the Colts will have enough chances to do so, nor will actually convert all of the chances they will get. I know the Colts DID beat Denver, KC, Seattle and SF, but those wins were either at home or in games that meant nothing. The blowout losses to Arizona and Cincinnati that really mattered (road) and St. Louis (home) and blowing one at home to Miami in Week 2 and at SD later on MNF and barely beating Oakland on Opening Day says a lot too. Inconsistent. The Colts crushed the Jaguars twice. So? So did KC, Oakland and other teams. The Colts won an easy division with no real competition, but blew a top 2 seed by losing to teams they should (or could) have beat. This team is not ready for the big playoff run….yet. Baltimore showed it last year in Charm City and the Chiefs will do it in Indy this Saturday. Chiefs win.

Kansas City 30 Indianapolis 24

New Orleans at Philadelphia: The Saints are a dangerous team. But they are far less dangerous on the road. The franchise has NEVER won a road playoff game, the classic OH NO! of dome teams. Snow may not factor in this game despite this week’s winter storm, but it WILL be cold and probably kind of icy (not knowing if the field has heaters under it or not). The Saints suck on the road, but QB Drew Brees does have experience in the cold, having played at Purdue. But that was a while ago. How his teammates react to such is another matter. The Eagles has big advantages, but a field where both teams can throw and run a lot may work against the home team. The defense, while better than early in the year will have issues stopping the dangerous Brees and his passing game. But then, almost everyone does. Eagles QB Nick Foles has been great this year, but how will he handle his first playoff game? If he gets hurt or is ineffective, having experienced QB Michael Vick on the bench can help, but we all know his injury and passing accuracy concerns. I am not convinced this will be the high-scoring game the experts predict, especially in this cold, but it might. Though I think it will be close, I will take the Saints in an upset.

   The Eagles are better served if the score is low and they can run RB LeSean McCoy A LOT and keep Brees off the field. But I don’t think that this defense can keep the Saints off the scoreboard, no matter how much (or little) time the experienced Saints offense is on the field. Turnovers, special teams and field position will be key and there won’t be many field goal attempts, unless they are at point-blank (35 yards or less) range. To beat the Saints, you need touchdowns, and without major snow on the field to slow down the Saints, I just don’t think this Eagles defense gets it done. The higher the score gets, the more it favors the Saints. Saints end their playoff road losing streak in a dogfight.

New Orleans 38 Philadelphia 34

Sunday:

San Diego at Cincinnati: The Chargers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, but they got lucky at KC last week, just to get in the playoffs. Now, the warm-weather West Coast team goes to cold (and probably snowy and/or (freezing) rainy) Cincinnati for a wild card game. The Bengals are a good all-around team with weapons and playmakers on both sides of the ball. NOW, we will see how much losing DT Geno Atkins for the season (in the Miami MNF OT loss) will really affect them. San Diego QB Phillip Rivers is good on the road, and in the cold in his career, but the Chargers are less experienced in the playoffs. However, the Bengals, though this is their third straight playoff appearance, have been one-and-done in their last 7 playoff appearances, some of which were at home. The Bengals are true beasts at home, being 8-0 and scoring a lot more than they do on the road, but QB Andy Dalton can be erratic (less so at home) and having 2 playoff losses already gives me pause. Something has to give. I do think Dalton will be a nice QB for his career, but I am seeing how hot and desperate the Chargers are. Plus, I do think the Chargers have a better chance of going into Denver and beating the Broncos (who they have already faced twice) than the Bengals. I am picking another upset with the Chargers.

San Diego 28 Cincinnati 27

San Francisco at Green Bay: The weather in Green Bay will almost surely be the coldest of these four games. This game was scheduled last on the TV schedule for a reason. San Francisco beat Green Bay in the early part of the season….at Candlestick Park. That was then. This is now. The mystique of Lambeau Field in the playoffs has been historic, though lately, since the pre-prison Michael Vick and the Atlanta Falcons upset the Packers there around a decade ago (wow how times flies!), the home field has not helped Green Bay. The weather conditions for this game will be as bad or worse than most of those of those most recent playoff games. Getting all-world Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers back is huge. This team is so much better and dangerous with him, it is hard to pick against them.

     BUT, there are other factors. The Packers have a lot of injuries on both sides of the field (LB Clay Matthews (thumb, again) being a big one), but the Packers overcame more (season-ending) injuries that I have ever seen one team take in one year (maybe 2!) on their way to a Super Bowl win a few years ago. So that is one thing. The other thing is the opponent. These are not your father’s (or your mother’s) San Francisco 49ers. They have an awesome all-around defense, who is healthy tough and dangerous. They have a return game. They have a nice kicker. They also have a tough offense that is just getting (nearly) totally healthy now, fresh off a Super Bowl appearance (and near win) last year. But the defending NFC champs also has is QB Colin Kaepernick. He is in a lot of ways similar to that younger Vick who ripped away the mystique of Lambeau in January. He has a great passing arm (big difference is Vick is left-handed) and is accurate. He is confident like Vick. But the biggest differences between those Falcons and these Niners are that he has more weapons around him (RB Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter, WR Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree and all-world (most of the time….ugh!) TE Vernon Davis (from Maryland!!!)) than Vick did, and Colin K may be more accurate and might be an even more dangerous (due to better control more than greater speed) runner than Vick.

   Vick ran (and still does some) because he knew If no one was open, he could (then) outrun and juke around every defender on that field. He was more of a run-first, pass second QB. Colin K is a pass first QB, who happens to have better running ability than most running backs and running QBs. The Niners dual threat is deadly because the QB has too many weapons without having to run, but if he does….you are done. Vick could not do that in Atlanta (nor could he in Philly either). And THAT combo versus a banged up and not the fastest Green Bay defense will be deadly. Sorry, Green Bay, this will be close, but I have to take my fraternity brother Colin K. and the Niners in a upset.

San Francisco 31 Green Bay 28 (OT)

Bonus picks: Since the bowl games are still ongoing until Monday's national title game, I will total up those picks before I pick next weeks NFL divisional playoffs. Hence, the bonus pick total is not updated yet. I did go 13-3 in Week 17 in the NFL, missing only Washington, Oakland and Baltimore. That, and winning my seventh fantasy football championship last Sunday night  was a nice way to finish the 2013 regular season. Going 1-2 in championship finals is better than 0-3 any day! Let's see how I do in the playoffs!


Think my picks suck? Send me a reply and tell me why! Good luck to everyone.
NFL picks: 135-118-1 after 17 weeks; 35-28 on bonus picks; Total: 170-146-1 overall (as of January 4, 2014).