My picks for the 2014 NFL Divisional playoffs

The final bowl games were wild, but the NFL's first week of playoff games were wilder. I see more of the same this week as the playoffs continue. Less snow and cold, but more craziness. Remember, history says that at least one top seed or maybe both probably LOSES in this round. Will this happen again with both 6 seeds advancing to face the top seeds on the road....both in rematches? We will see.

NFL Divisional playoffs:

Saturday:

New Orleans at Seattle: The Saints had a groundbreaking win last week at Philadelphia. Winning their first road playoff game in the franchise’s history was big. But they had breaks in weather and in the way the Eagles failed to win the game. That was then. Now, the 6 seed has a much bigger challenge in the 1 seed Seattle Seahawks. The Saints know how hard it is to win in Seattle, having tried and failed on MNF a few weeks ago. But that was also then. This is now. Seattle has a great home-field advantage but can they defend it? If the Seahawks can play their kind of balanced football, with the running game of RB Marshawn Lynch, and the passing attack of QB Russell Wilson and strong defense led by their secondary called the Legion of Boom, then that should be no problem. But, the Saints have a great offense too, led by QB Drew Brees. Philadelphia did not have the defense to stop the Saints, even at home, it turned out. Seattle, on paper, does. But if the defense fails, can the offense keep up with the Saints on the scoreboard, if the weather allows for a high scoring game? Lastly, Saints coach Sean Payton is one of the best in the game and that gives the Saints a decided advantage over Seattle coach Pete Carroll. Can Carroll keep up with the unpredictable Payton, especially in a winner-take-all playoff game, even at home? I think not. With the extra tape of the earlier game in hand, I am taking the Saints in another upset. I don’t think Seattle can win 2 games over the Saints in the same year, nor do I think they can win the NFC...this year.

New Orleans 38 Seattle 37

Indianapolis at New England: The Colts are a dangerous team, too. But they are far less dangerous on the road. The classic (OH NO!) of all dome team is winning on the road, with bad weather and/or cold and/or rain coming down. These Colts have the offense to beat these Patriots. But in Foxboro, in January? I am not convinced. The Colts needed home field, bad play calling, turnovers, and several key injuries during the game and a lot of TD passes from QB Andrew Luck to beat KC and coach Andy Reid (famous for choking games) by 1 point. Not here. The Patriots are less potent than previous years due to so many losses in personnel due to injury and other things. But they still have their coach and their QB, Tom Brady. With those two still here, they find a way to win, especially in the playoffs. But, this team is .500 in the playoffs since their last Super Bowl win nearly a decade ago. Most of those losses were not in Foxboro (last year’s AFC final loss to Baltimore was a rare one). The new-look Colts are good and will be good for a while. But Luck and company are not quite there yet. The Saints have the experience to steal two road wins in the playoffs. These Colts are not ready to steal one….yet. I am taking the Patriots.

New England 31 Indianapolis 28 (OT)

Sunday:

San Francisco at Carolina: This is another rematch game and potentially the hardest-hitting of the four this week. Carolina beat SF 10-9 at Candlestick Park in a defensive struggle at a time the Niners were struggling all-around. That was then, this is now. The Niners are feeling stronger now with a late season run of wins including at Seattle and at COLD as **** Green Bay last week in the wild-card game. The Saints’ road upset of the Eagles allowed the Niners to delay a third meeting with top seed Seattle and instead get the Panthers.  The Panthers have also grown a lot in the last few weeks, have a mostly healthy squad and home-field. But will it be enough against the defending NFC champs? Maybe. This will be a show of two great defenses against two very good offenses. The differences is that the Panthers will have WR Steve Smith ailing, along with others, including their two best running backs, and the Niners will have WR Michael Crabtree, who was still recovering from offseason surgery when the teams played before. This game will be close, and I almost expect this to go to OT. Whichever team makes the most mistakes and/or turnovers will win. I have to take the Niners and their experience in a tight one.

San Francisco 31 Carolina 28 (OT)

San Diego at Denver: Another rematch game and the most watched one of the week. Can Peyton Manning get it done and advance the Broncos past the divisional round this year? This challenger will be tougher in some ways than Baltimore was last year. San Diego is in the AFC West and knows Denver all too well. Despite being the AFC 6 seed in controversial fashion, the Chargers have been on fire of late. Most importantly, as part of the recent surge, these Chargers upset Denver at home a few weeks ago, a loss that might have cost the Broncos the division and the top seed if they hadn’t took care of business in two wins over KC previously. SD has given the Broncos fits in recent years and they have great momentum coming in, including the upset at Cincinnati last week. SD QB Phillip Rivers is on fire of late and is one of the few QBs who could go pass for pass with Peyton Manning. But all good QBs need help, and the Broncos have more of it…on offense. You know the wideouts, the running backs, and the surprise star tight end that catch Manning’s passes. But SD has offensive weapons, too.  But there is still that defense. Denver has one of the worst defenses in football, part due to injury, part due to lack of skill, part due to dumb BS in the offseason that was outside of the team’s control. But when you have an offense that routinely breaks 40 points a game; that will mask a lot of deficiencies in other areas. But that is regular season. This is the playoffs.  Last year the defense cost Denver a shot at the AFC title game, along with Manning’s own mistakes. San Diego’s defense is okay, less known. But they are effective against Denver. Who wins? Denver has the weapons to win, but not the heart as a whole. The Chargers want and need this win more, for their franchise and their city. Denver leans on those two Super Bowls from 20 years ago. Yet that cannot get back to try to win more, try as they might. The drought continues. I am taking the Chargers.

San Diego 28 Denver 27

Bonus games: The bowl games are finally all done. I did not do that great. I finished 19-16 on bowl picks, but I did get the (last, thank goodness!) BCS championship game right. That counts for something..lol. I also went 3-1 on NFL picks last week, and I don’t feel bad about the one that I missed (KC) for they probably would have gotten crushed this week if they had won anyway, with all those injuries. Oh well. Just as well. 

Think my picks suck? Send me a reply and tell me why! Good luck to everyone.

NFL picks: 135-118-1 regular season, 3-1 in the playoffs; 54-44 on bonus picks; Total: 192-163-1 overall (as of January 11, 2014).