2014 NFL picks Week 4...September 25-28...Bye weeks begin NOW!

   Last week, my picks did better, but not that much. I went 8-8. I did better with the pick'em leagues I am in. Go figure. Well, let me try to turn this around with the 13 games this week.

 Fantasy football people, please note, bye weeks start THIS week! I will list the bye teams below.

Season to date: 19-28 after three weeks....not good. Not good at all. 

Bonus picks: Last week, I was totally right (3-0) on my first set of bonus picks on the TV show Married at First Sight. I was 3-2 on my picks for last week's NASCAR race at Chicago as shown below. I will make my picks for this week on Friday or Saturday. As it is Thursday afternoon, I am posting my pick for tonight's Tampa Bay-Atlanta game, and will post my other NFL and bonus picks before Sunday morning.

Teams with the Week 4 (super early) bye:

1.      Cincinnati (3-0): The Bengals are a mild surprise to be 3-0. They have quality wins over Baltimore and Atlanta at home and look sturdy as the AFC’s last unbeaten team. But there is a long road to the playoffs. Injuries happen and so on. Having a bye this early helps WR A.J. Green recover from injuries that kept him out of most of the Atlanta game. However, having to go 13 straight games before the playoffs makes it vital for the Bengals to 1) win the AFC North and 2) secure either top (preferably the 1) seed in the playoffs to get that extra week off, plus the home field. The Bengals have proven they can make the playoffs with QB Andy Dalton, Green, and their tough D. They need to prove they can win games once they get there. This leg up they have on the entire conference, including Denver, New England and so on is something these young Bengals must not relinquish. Good luck with that.

2.      Arizona (3-0): The Cardinals being 3-0 is a BIG surprise, considering 1) the division they are in and more importantly 2) the number of (mostly season-ending) injuries this team has already suffered. That, plus losing starting QB Carson Palmer is not good, either (plus, not knowing if and when he can return to the field). Backup Drew Stanton has done the job and the team has rallied to 3 wins, including a home win over reeling San Francisco. Remember, this team won 10 games last year and just missed the playoffs. A start like this can help them get in this year. But they must stay together. They, like Cincinnati have an advantage over the entire NFC, including world champ Seattle who they will face twice (plus the rematch with the Niners in their new home), and they also cannot afford to squander that lead. But this team may have the pieces to get it done, which will shake up the NFC, if they do.

3.      Seattle (2-1): The defending champs are doing pretty well, having beaten Denver and Green Bay at home. However, their surprise loss in the heat at San Diego shows this team is vulnerable away from home. Despite their still being healthy, one has to wonder how having such a early bye will hurt them late in the year with their being a game behind surprising Arizona in both the division and the conference.  However, having both Arizona and division member St. Louis also on bye this week could help the champs or mean nothing. The road to the playoffs is seemingly extra hard for the defending champs. This early bye will not help, but if any team can overcome and still be a force in January, it is this team…if all goes right.

4.      Denver (2-1): The AFC champs have some work to do. They barely survived home wins over KC and Indianapolis and made a great comeback in Seattle to force a unlikely overtime….only to see the champs end it with a touchdown drive will QB Peyton Manning and the Denver offense could only watch. Denver spent much time and money trying to improve a horrible defense that largely let them down in the Super Bowl, only to find teams better prepared for Denver’s offense. This early bye allows Denver to try to reset themselves, especially with Seattle in the rear-view mirror. But with as many as 6 difficult division games, plus surprising Arizona, San Francisco and more ahead of them, the path to the playoffs will be much harder this time around. Better make sure Manning is protected well.

5.      Cleveland (1-2): The Browns made some splashes with their draft moves and in free agency, both good and maybe bad, including drafting QB Johnny Manziel. He did not, however, supplant QB Brian Hoyer as the starter, returning from a knee injury that ended his season just as he was getting the Browns going. Tough division losses at Pittsburgh and Baltimore do not help, but their surprising home win over New Orleans give their fans some hope. Cleveland has a chance to be more than a possible spoiler this season if Hoyer (and/or Manziel, if necessary) can stay healthy and they can get on a roll. No matter what happens, Cleveland has a extra 1^st round pick in 2015, which could help even more. But first things first. Let’s see what they can do in 2014.

6.      St. Louis (1-2): The Rams have been snake-bit lately and the bites keep on coming with starting QB Sam Bradford being lost for the year (again) in the preseason. They haven't done much in the season. Season over.

  

Thursday Night Football (NFL Network/CBS): New York Giants at Washington: This might have been a better matchup if both teams were playing better (both last year and so far this year). Both teams are 1-2 and are struggling. The Giants were blasted the first two weeks before surprising then-undefeated Houston, who had beat Washington on Opening Day. Washington lost a close, exciting game at Philadelphia last week after beating down the Jaguars in their home opener. Washington backup QB Kirk Cousins looks like the real deal in this more traditional pass-happy offense than injured starter Robert Griffin III. Win or lose, the Redskins will have tough decisions to make on both players. Who to keep? Who to let go? But that is for later. Right now, there is a season left to play and that begins now. The Giants must win to start to rally what already has started to look like a lost season with the poor play and injuries. Giants QB Eli Manning does not look much better than his bad year last year, but would head coach Tom Coughlin bench him? Lose here, plus a few more in a row…maybe. Division game are always big. The team that loses here, especially if the Eagles and Cowboys both win may be done for 2014 (or very very close to it).                                                                                   

    Who wins? Short and sweet…Washington has the balanced offense that will give almost every team fits. Only teams with top-level deep defenses might be able to stop both their running game with RB Alfred Morris and the passing game led by Cousins and WR DeSean Jackson consistently and the Giants don’t have it. Still, the Giants still cannot be overlooked. But the Washington team needs this game badly, for they will not be favored the next two weeks against two teams on bye this week…the rested world champion Seattle Seahawks next week (though it is at FedEx Field in Maryland) or possibly Arizona after that. Tonight, Cousins can cement that he has game in this Jay Gruden offense and cause more comparisons to Bengals QB Andy Dalton (less the experience and the red hair). He must, for this team’s defense (especially the already weak secondary) is getting weaker and less reliable, especially with best CB DeAngelo Hall (Achilles) gone for the year. Eli has a chance to feast on that weakened Washington D, but the question is…can he? Both QBs will get a lot of yards, but Washington’s run game will save the day. Washington wins…barely.

Washington 27 New York Giants 24

Update: Wow. Well, Kirk Cousins has to expect days like this. It doesn't look good for the Redskins right now. The Giants looked good in two games. Can they keep it going? It is looking like it may be Philadelphia and Dallas fighting for the NFC East. We will see.

Sunday's games:

Buffalo at Houston: Both teams started 2-0, which was a surprise. Both teams fell with a thud last week. Buffalo has a clear advantage on offense, but has some young players who have to get themselves together. QB E.J. Manuel and rookie WR Sammy Watkins are the nucleus for a dangerous Bills offense for years to come, but for now, their older but still dangerous RBs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson gives teams fits. Pick your poison…if the offense doesn’t turn the ball over.  Houston has great D, led by all-world DE J.J. Watt and LB Brian Cushing, even with 1^st overall pick DE J. Clowney still out with injury for another 4-5 weeks, I think. But that offense is ugly. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the answer and RB Arian Foster is brittle at best. We barely have mentioned WR Andre Johnson so far. I cannot see a lot of points from this game.

   Who wins? Offense wins (most) regular season games. Defense wins championships. Houston has the D and they are even tougher at home. Buffalo is still too-turnover prone to overcome that…for now. Once these youngsters mature…beware in 2015-16. But for this game in 2014…I am taking the home team in a low scoring game.

Houston 20 Buffalo 16

Atlanta at Minnesota: We all know the Minnesota situation with RB Adrian Peterson so let’s skip all that. Bad got worse, however, when QB Matt Cassell (broken bones in foot) was lost for the year in a loss at New Orleans and TE Kyle Rudolph is out for several weeks. 1^st round pick rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater looked all right in his first NFL action and he is the new starter. Peterson would be a big help this week. Atlanta looks devastating…indoors. The Bengals, even with WR A.J. Green going down in the first quarter still handled these Falcons with ease…outdoors. Remember, the Vikings are playing outdoors while their new stadium is being built over the next couple of years. Can the Falcons win outdoors? If they lose this one..I would be concerned. Remember, Atlanta still has Carolina and Tampa Bay and another AFC North team outdoors later. This team had better get this done now or this team may be in big trouble later.

   Who wins? Neither team has great defense. Atlanta’s great WR duo is still not 100 percent and neither is the running game. Atlanta has a dangerous returner in Devin Hester but he is hurt too. Even so, Minnesota has C. Patterson who is more dangerous all-around than Hester and he is healthy. Bridgewater is the X factor and the Falcons D has issues with mobile QBs and Cassel cannot move around like Bridgewater. I am taking the Vikings in a upset.

Minnesota 24 Atlanta 20

Tennessee at Indianapolis:  Tennessee got one win, then got blasted by Dallas and are 1-2. Long work in progress with no real running game and shaky defense. Prohibitive division favorite Indianapolis lost two close ones to division winners Denver and Philadelphia to start but are now 1-2 after crushing the Jaguars on the road. Still, they trail Houston by a game. Still, this is the one division where one could rally from 0-2 if your team is good enough. The Colts have QB Andrew Luck and WRs Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton. Enough said.

   

    Who wins? Really? Tennessee cannot score like the Colts, especially on the road. Titans QB Jake Locker is better than he looks, but he doesn’t have enough help to beat these Colts in Lucas Oil Stadium…unless the Colts beat themselves. Worse yet, Locker is hurt (again) and may not play. If not, journeyman Charlie Whitehurst gets the nod. Neither QB has enough in himself or around him on this Titans team to beat these Colts, especially on the road. Colts cruise back to an even record.

Indianapolis 30 Tennessee 20

Green Bay at Chicago:  Green Bay crushes Detroit EVERYWHERE as long as all-world QB Aaron Rodgers plays (the whole game). He played…and the Packers only get 7 points? WTF? I sense Green Bay may be in trouble on the road. Now the Packers go to Chicago who is riding high with 2 ROAD wins at SF (spoiling the opening of their new stadium) and at the Jets on MNF after being upset at home by Buffalo on Opening Day. The Bears can get some revenge for Rodgers returning from injury and helping GB beating them at snowy Soldier Field in the final seconds on the final day of last year, putting the Packers in the playoffs and leaving Chicago in the cold…literally. Losing another home game so early would not a good sign for the Bears. 

    Who wins? Chicago is tough at home, but Rodgers is too good to be held down for long. What is going to change here? Chicago’s offensive injuries are still a concern at Cutler will start messing up again sooner or later. I take sooner.  Packers win.

Green Bay 34 Chicago 31

Jacksonville at San Diego:  The Jaguars’ original plan was to let 3^rd overall draft pick QB Blake Bortles sit and watch this year and maybe start him in 2015. Journeyman QB Chad Henne just was not very good in the first 21/2 games. Plans changed. Bortles looked decent in relief last week’s loss. At this point, any win for the Jags is a upset and a big win. Do I think this team will go 0-16? I hope not, but I don’t see this being the first win. The Chargers are still a dangerous squad, especially at home, as the defending champs found out. They have weapons, they have QB Philip Rivers and they are a tough out for anyone. Poor Jags.

 Who wins? Rivers and his team realize that they need every win to make the playoffs again. Denver and KC are weaker than last year….the what ifs are big and getting bigger. After choking to Arizona on the opening MNF, the Chargers cannot afford another loss in a game they should win, especially in conference and at home. Chargers win. 

San Diego 30 Jacksonville 20

Philadelphia at San Francisco: This is now a big game. The Eagles are undefeated and they are starting to pull away not only from their division, but from the NFC powers who all trail them. The Niners are in early trouble and if they fall to 1-3, they may not be able to rally to get a wild-card, much less anything more. They also cannot afford to open their new stadium 0-2, despite the hard schedule. I told you the Western Division teams were going to have a hard time in 2014. Enough said. The Eagles do need to show they can win far from home….and without a slow start, which they haven’t done yet.

    Who wins? SF TE Vernon Davis may be out today, but the Niners need him and QB Colin Kaepernick to go crazy against a so-so Eagles D.  If the Eagles fall behind early, again, the Niners have the capability to not choke the game. But if the Niners lose, their season may be over and may lose coach Jim Harbaugh as well (rumored to be pursued to become head coach at Michigan). Some may not mind that, but the Niners are losing again. Eagles win.

Philadelphia 30 San Francisco 24 (OT)

Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh: Tampa is horrible. The Steelers is not good…but they always fight hard. Pittsburgh is tough at home. Tampa is starting a different QB today. They have no chance. Nothing else to say.

   Who wins? Look, Pittsburgh has a running game and Big Ben at QB. Tampa has no D, half a running game and little else. Steelers win.

Pittsburgh 27 Tampa Bay 18

Detroit at the New York Jets: This is another must-watch game. The Lions seem to be getting their powerful offense rolling again..at home. On the road….not so much. Dome teams have trouble outdoors and the Lions are a clear example of that. Worse yet, all-world Lions WR Calvin Johnson has an injured ankle. That will slow him down outdoors. The Lions luck out by not playing in the cold and snows of New Jersey this year, but they will see plenty of cold weather at the end of the season so wins early are desperately important. The Jets are hanging tough on D, but that offense under QB Geno Smith….work in progress…maybe luck is with them…so far.

   Who wins? Detroit has issues outdoors when everyone is healthy. That is not the case here. True, they upset a shaky Green Bay squad…at home. On the road…I don’t trust them to beat Jacksonville. These Jets are better….where it matters…than the Jaguars, especially at home. Jets steal this one.

New York Jets 28 Detroit 27

Carolina at Baltimore: Ravens WR Steve Smith Sr. facing off against his old team is a nice storyline, but my focus is on the game. These Panthers are looking a little shaky after getting by in Week 1 without QB Cam Newton and winning their home opener with Newton returning from rib injuries. Then they get blasted last week. The Panthers defense looks less powerful than expected, "suspended" DE Greg Hardy notwithstanding and the offense..is okay. Their dangerous, but often injured running back trio is all hurt again so...why take them seriously over 16 games? The Ravens are rolling despite the Ray Rice scandal and the 53 on the field are doing their jobs, even with QB Joe Flacco looking...so-so. Tough game to call.
    Who wins? The Panthers defense is tough everywhere, but I think the off-the-field distractions and the injuries to a questionable offense is biting them in the rear already. The Ravens are rolling and this team, as we have seen, is very tough to beat at home, whether Flacco is on fire or not. You just don't want to face him or these Ravens in the playoffs. Ravens win.

Baltimore 27 Carolina 23

Miami at Oakland (at London, England): Okay, no one is taking Oakland here and perhaps for good reason. Oakland is 0-3, but even with rookie 2^nd round pick QB Derek Carr, they have been very competitive in road losses at the Jets and New England last week. The latter makes you wonder if such was more indicative of the Patriots’ weakening on offense or the improving of the Oakland defense. You decide. Miami has been shaky at best after upsetting these same Patriots on Opening Day in Miami. They have inner turmoil with their starting QB Ryan Tannehill and their coach, so who knows which team has flown to London for the first of three London regular season games for 2014. This game is big for both teams. The winner gets some momentum and good feeling going into next week’s bye. The loser gets the opposite. If such is Oakland, one has to figure that they will NOT rally from a 0-4 start (but it can be done…having seen Washington rally from a 0-5 start years ago). I will watch, for obvious reasons. Not many others will.

    Who wins? No one outside of Raiders fans will take Oakland. I am a Raiders fan..and I want a upset. But the head is realistic. You don’t win 7 fantasy football titles without common sense, a good head (and more…lol). However, Miami is in as much turmoil as Oakland, and some of it is worse. I am taking the “home” team here in Wembley Stadium (which may be a better field for football right now than Oakland’s current home).

Oakland 24 Miami 21

Sunday Night Football: New Orleans at Dallas: Dallas is 2-1, but a shaky one considering their schedule. From here on, the schedule gets a lot tougher the rest of the way, finishing at Washington. However, having the league’s top runner so far in RB DeMarco Murray helps. However, turning over the ball a lot, meaning both Murray and QB Tony Romo, doesn’t help. Still, facing these Saints at home gives the defensively challenged Cowboys a chance. But honestly, defending a worse off Titans squad is a lot different than facing the Saints’ offense led by future HOF QB Drew Brees and TE Jimmy Graham. The Saints continue their rally from a surprising 0-2 start. Note those two losses were on the road, and this is another (early) road game. Falling to 1-3 will make it really hard for the Saints to make the playoffs, much less have a home playoff game, which is almost mandatory for this dome team to progress in the playoffs…unless the top seeds are the other dome teams in the NFC. No sure thing there. The loser of this game will be in worse shape in the run to the playoffs, especially if the Eagles win again.

   Who wins? The Saints may not be in desperation mode yet, but they should be. If the above notes don’t convince you, remember this: Atlanta and Carolina are already ahead of them and the Saints cannot assume the Buccaneers will fall to the Saints twice….much less anyone else. Dallas doesn’t have the expectations the Saints have, either. Brees and Saints coach Sean Payton get it. Saints win.

New Orleans 30 Dallas 27

Monday Night Football: New England at Kansas City: The Patriots are having offensive issues. They lost at Miami on Opening Day and barely got past the offensively challenged Raiders. This is not good since future HOF QB Tom Brady and TE Rob Gronkowksi (perhaps not 100 percent yet) is playing. Still, the Pats are in the mix in the AFC, but they are on their third road game already. Win this one and momentum (though shaky) is there for later. The Chiefs haven’t looked good at all since last year’s 9-0 start. No one knows for sure why this is, but lack of heart, in my opinion, from head coach Andy Reid on down is a factor (though this has been the case for 40-plus years with this team...again, in my “opinion”). I am not sure what the Chiefs can do to rally, but their injuries woes don’t help. However, they did take the Broncos to the limit at Denver, despite it all. Can they rally in 2014? They must win this game to start such. Period.

   Who wins? These Patriots look weaker than the injury ravaged team that fell to Denver in the AFC championship in January. These Chiefs look even weaker. But this team is still dangerous, especially at home, despite their shocking loss at home in Week 1. Despite the Chiefs having a dangerous running game, the Chiefs don’t have enough to beat a mostly healthy Patriots team with Brady and head coach Bill Belichick there. Patriots win…but that offense is still shaky.

New England 28 Kansas City 20

Bonus picks:

1.  (11) UCLA at (15) Arizona State: Thursday night (ESPN): This is a big game in the Pac-12. Arizona State beat the Bruins on the road last year, so UCLA wants to return the favor and also stay unbeaten and help their shot at the playoffs. Arizona State's starting QB is out. UCLA's heralded QB Britt Hundley should play but will be limited due to a left elbow injury (non-throwing arm) incurred in the win over Texas. Backup QB Rich Neiuheisel had better be ready, just in case. Bottom line the Pac-12 champ may have a legit shot at the 4-team national title playoffs if they are undefeated, win the conference and can get to the top 4-6 in the rankings. Beating ranked opponents on the road do help. UCLA has not looked great all year, but I think that they realize the stakes now that conference play has begun. Arizona State might have won with their starter, but without him, I think the Bruins will be too much, for the defense is pretty good too. Bruins win, but not by a lot. Overtime will not surprise me.

UCLA 34 Arizona State 30

Update: Wow. Didn't see that coming. Arizona State was leading at one point. Perhaps UCLA is a contender for the playoff after all? Time will tell. 

2. NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup Race 3: Dover: You wanted more excitement in the Chase? Here you go. This is the first of the three "cut down" races in the Chase. After this race, the 4 Chase drivers with the fewest points are eliminated. Joey Logano won last week, automatically putting him into the next round with Penske teammate Brad Keselowski, who won at Chicago (and was the top seed).

   With only 5 of the other 14 Chase drivers (Harvick, Johnson, Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt, Jr and Jeff Gordon) almost assured to get to the Contender Round with points, barring their finishing last and all of the other Chase drivers finishing in the top 15 (and one winning the race), this race means everything. The bottom driver, Aric Armirola, is only 10 points out of the 11th place tie (Kahne, Newman) after a 6^th place drive at New Hampshire with 13th through 15th (Hamlin, Biffle and Kurt Busch) within 8 points of that tie. Anything can happen, especially with 27 non-Chase drivers on the track trying to win too. 

 

Bottom line: If ANY Chase driver wins here (other than Logano and Brad K.) they are through. regardless of points. The bottom 4 Chasers simply put must either win or finish in the top 3 to 5 spots AND hope some or all of the drivers that are close (Kenseth and Edwards-8th place tie, Allmendinger is 10th)  plus the other 3 drivers below 12th ALL finish outside the top 35 (meaning get wrecked or have their car fail early). All that is unlikely, BUT definitely not impossible.

Prediction: There will be many chances taken and a lot of hurt feelings during and after this race. 

Dover can be a track with a lot of cautions. I expect there to be many cautions, especially involving non-Chase cars tangling up with drivers in the Chase. The Penske cars don't have to do much more than qualify and start the race since they are through already, but a high finish helps momentum for both cars.

Keep a eye on rookie Kyle Larson who just missed making the Chase. He is 17th in the standings and has a nearly full race (based on maximum earned points per race) lead on a pack of drivers from 18th-21st in the standings. A win or top 5 could put him close to out of reach for that position and give great momentum for 2015.

My prediction is one of the lower half Chase drivers wins the race and moves into the Challenger Round with a win. My last four in and the four that will be eliminated are listed below. Let's hope rain does not affect the race nor shorten it.

Last four in:  Hamlin, Edwards, Newman, Armirola (by 1-2 points or by winning the race)

   The first three are tough and have done well in important races in the past. I will never bet against my hometown driver Hamlin. Edwards is on a mission to win before he leaves RFR to go to JGR in 2015. This may be his last legit chance at a title for a year or two as is settles into a new team and car make. He will get it done. Newman will quietly qualify with a solid top 18 finish.

   Armirola has been consistently good the last 10 races or so. He came back so strong last week after the car failed him at Chicago. He is the big underdog in the Chase, even more than the Dinger, and lots of folk wants to see the famous 43 qualify for the Contender Round for the King. Such would also helps NASCAR's popularity for older fans, like me. I think the luck will fall his way and another top-6 finish will get him to the Contender round, if Kenseth, Allmendinger, Kahne and/or more falter and finish outside the top 25. 10 points is not a lot, especially if the 43 leads laps and stays on the lead lap, though a win would be preferred. If any Chase driver is a lap down or more with less than 30 laps left, only a miracle saves him.

Eliminated: Biffle, Kurt Busch, Kahne, Allmendinger

     These four have not been efficient nor consistent all year. The Dinger is more of a road race specialist, so he has little karma for "regular" tracks. I have no faith in the others, especially Kahne. He did what he had to so he could get in the Chase, mostly without help from his more famous teammates. Would they help him now, since they are all almost clinched to move on? Almost surely not. Haven't seen it all year. I cannot see any changes now. Sorry. I just don't think the luck will fall their way even if they qualify right near the front, and knowing rain is in that area, qualifying may wash out on Friday which doesn't help.

Update:   I got almost all of it right. A Chase driver won to move to a top seed for the Contender Round (Gordon), 3 of the four who were out of the top 12 before Dover who I thought would get through did advance (Hamlin, Edwards and Newman), 3 of the four who I thought would not advance did not (Kurt Busch, Biffle and Allmindinger).
    I was wrong on Kasey Kahne (advanced in 12th) and wrong on Aric Almirola (started 16th, could not make up 10 points, finished 16th, about 20 points out). Well, now things get interesting in the Contender Round, starting next week at Kansas (followed by Charlotte and the always unpredictable Talledega for the second cut-down to 8 drivers).