These are my Week Two NFL picks, shown below. I have multiple bonus picks, but I am posting my first bonus pick early (Tuesday, 1pm), since the season finale of the FYI Network show Married at First Sight is Tuesday night at 9pm EDT and I wanted to get this Thursday night pick out before more extraneous stuff comes out before this Thursday night game. This is a difficult week with other things going on since Sunday, so bear with me.
Also, please remember the anniversary we will remember on Thursday. Even with the dark clouds over this game, there are bigger clouds that were over this entire nation 13 years ago this Thursday. Never forget those we lost and/or were hurt on Tuesday, September 11, 2001 and who chose to commit these crimes against innocent American citizens and others.
Last week: I was 7-9 on my picks and lucky to get to that. I hope to right the ship some this week. However this week was a tough week to be a NFL fan all the way through to today. I lost a bit of respect for the management of the NFL in these last few days. If nothing else, I hope that these revelations and other "stuff" shows that football players have problems like all of us and such things should NOT be ignored because they thrill us on weekends and make lots of money. Actors do that. I will comment more on these things in new blog entries in the next day or so. Stay tuned..and I apologize in advance for the language and frankness I will be using. But such is needed.
Thursday Night Football (NFL Network/CBS): Pittsburgh at Baltimore: This is a really difficult game to consider, and it has nothing to do with the players who will play this game. The Ray Rice situation will linger over the Ravens and the NFL for a long while. I will discuss this in a separate blog entry later. Here, let’s focus on this game. The Steelers won their first game over Cleveland at home, but only after blowing a big lead. The Ravens was getting smashed by the Bengals at home, but they rallied to tie before the Bengals pulled it out late. This is one of the biggest rivalries in the league. This game, under normal circumstances, could go either way.
Who wins? Short and sweet…these two defenses were not that great after one week. There will not be improvement 4 days after the opener. Bottom line, the Steelers have more of a real running game right now and the passing game favors them too. The overall emotion that will be in Baltimore, which might have favored the home team, will work against them…at least this week. Rice would not have been playing in this game anyway, but I just cannot see Baltimore winning this game unless the Steelers play so badly and turn over the ball so much that they give the game to the Ravens. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin will not let that happen…BUT if he steps his ass on that field during a Ravens kick return again and messes with the play, accident or not, I hope Ravens coach John Harbaugh tells his returners to run him the **** over. I would without hesitation. I would take the fallout (fight immediately after…sanctions and whatever later…lol) happily. I am trying to lighten the mood here. Heart wants Ravens to win (for those players and coaches who did nothing wrong), but my pick says Steelers, which is tough for this Raiders fan.
Pittsburgh 27 Baltimore 20
Update: Baltimore crushed the Steelers. Pittsburgh played like I thought Baltimore would have with all of the drama swirling around them right now. Clearly the near loss at home to Cleveland and the travel on a super-short week hurt Pittsburgh more than the road loss and the other stuff hurt Baltimore. Go figure. The ongoing Ray Rice situation and the response of fans I will discuss in a separate post. It is a long season…and a LONG time before the rematch in Pittsburgh. We will see how it goes between now and then.
Sunday’s games:
New England at Minnesota: I was going to write something different on this game, but things changed immeasurably with the surprise deactivation of all-world Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson due to his being indicted on felony charges on Friday evening of what is in essence…child abuse. I am surprised that this stayed out of the media for the last 4 months, though there were a lot of rumors…allegedly. I will briefly state my thoughts on this situation in a separate post later. The Vikings…as far as this game...did the right thing. For the future…we will have to talk and think about that.
As far as THIS game is concerned. Minnesota is screwed...unless the Patriots play even more poorly than they did at Miami last week. Being one of the last teams (along with New Orleans and Jacksonville) to get to play at home (versus my Raiders next Sunday) does give the Vikings some hope of a upset, but playing in their temporary outdoor home in Minnesota may negate that. New England is probably glad they are not the team(s) who have to deal with that! If this was December and it was snowing and more….interesting. Barring an injury to Patriots QB Tom Brady, we can mostly figure how this goes…but we cannot assume a Patriots win. This is why every game MUST be played to the end. Few teams rally from 0-2 to make the playoffs. If any team could…these Patriots are that team.
Who wins? With Peterson, Minnesota did not have great chances even at “home” to win versus a healthy Brady and friends. Without him, unless Brady goes down early…or has 3 or more turnovers that are returned for scores (very unlikely)…blowout win for New England. Sorry. A Minnesota win would have be a major upset with OR without their star RB. No matter. This game will be a side note compared to Peterson’s ongoing situation. That is the reality. Patriots win.
New England 30 Minnesota 17
Arizona at the New York Giants: Arizona got by the Chargers at home on Monday night after they choked another opening Monday night game. The fact that they did it with basically no production from all-pro WR Larry Fitzgerald (who barely was noticed in the game by QB Carson Palmer) is fascinating…and annoyed many fantasy football owners…including me. Now the Cardinals travel east to face the rubble that is the New York Giants. I see basically no improvements on this team, including QB Eli Manning, from last year…at all. The Giants do have pride…but not much more right now. Like most West Coast teams, Arizona has difficulties coming East to play….but the team that used to be in the NFC East years ago is a different team. For the Cardinals to keep up with Seattle and San Francisco, you must win games like this.
Who wins? The Giants could not suck so bad again this week, right? Yes, they can….but Arizona wasn’t exactly rolling like Seattle either. This game will be close, but the Cardinals will win a rare East Coast game…not by much. Fitzgerald had better get more action or we will have another controversy…and the NFL has too much on their plate right now as it is…lol.
Arizona 24 New York Giants 18
St. Louis at Tampa Bay: The Rams have a lot of bad luck. First, they get a nasty schedule, being in the already tough NFC West. Then they lose starting QB Sam Bradford for the year in preseason (don’t bet on him being in a Ram uniform in 2015). After getting crushed last week, they find out that star DE Chris Long is badly injured (ankle leading to surgery) and is put on short-term IR. Not good. Maybe the Rams didn’t get the better end of the RGIII deal after all? Tampa Bay didn’t fare well either, as they could not beat Carolina WITHOUT stat QB Cam Newton (who will be playing this week). It is only one game….but losing division games is not good. Somebody has to win this game…the loser may well be out of the playoff race already.
Who wins? Tampa has a decently good defense…but not much offense. With their injuries, the Rams have very little of either one…especially now. I don’t think this game gets to 40 points total. Buccaneers win at home.
Tampa Bay 19 St. Louis 13
New Orleans at Cleveland: Cleveland almost stole one at Pittsburgh last week with a big comeback with QB Brian Hoyer. This team may be more dangerous than we thought…without 1st round pick QB Johnny Manziel. The Saints fell in a dogfight with Atlanta on the road in overtime. It was a wild game. The Saints are not as dangerous on the road, especially outdoors, but they are still tough as long as QB Drew Brees and TE Jimmy Graham is on the field. Can these Saints handle the loud home field in Cleveland’s home opener?
Who wins? Cleveland’s offense took advantage of a shaky Pittsburgh offense to rally…but the defense was not good early or at the end when it had to be. These Saints have a LOT more offense than the Steelers…and they have Brees. Cleveland cannot keep up with that, even at home. Saints win in a shootout.
New Orleans 38 Cleveland 27
Miami at Buffalo: Who expected these two teams (and the Jets) to win in Week 1 and New England did not? The winner of this game will have a big leg up in the AFC East, especially if the Jets and (by some miracle) the Patriots lose. Both teams have some nice offensive pieces in Buffalo QB EJ Manuel and RBs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson and Miami WR Mike Wallace and TE Charles Clay, but haven’t gotten it all together yet. The defenses….are a work in progress. This is a big game.
Who wins? If this game were in December, Buffalo would have a clear advantage. In week 2…not so much. Maybe the impending sale of the Bills is giving them some luck? I am taking the Bills to win and be a surprising 2-0.
Buffalo 31 Miami 28
Detroit at Carolina: Detroit crushed the Giants at home, but they left a lot of points on the field. Scoring a lot on the road and against this Carolina defense is another story. Yes, LB Greg Hardy should not be playing (you know why, but that is another story for a different blog entry), but the defense is tough without him too.
UPDATE: Carolina at 1140am Sunday deactivated Hardy and he will NOT play today. Carolina has finally seen the light. About time. Maybe Hardy needs to lose his job, too. Read the story on his situation and decide for yourself. More on this later.
Now with QB Cam Newton back from resting a rib injury and with them at home, Carolina will be tough to get by, even with Detroit QB Matthew Stafford, RB Reggie Bush, who is known to be pretty useless versus Carolina from his New Orleans days, and WR Calvin Johnson on your side.
Who wins? Carolina realizes that they need every win they can get to get a high playoff seed, especially if the powers in the NFC West falter from their tough schedule. Detroit is one of the tougher non-division challenges, and Carolina has been known to choke a few, even at home. You must win your home games…besides no can predict how things may go later. Detroit is known to have issues outdoors away from Ford Field. But I sense this is the year they finally steal one on the road, especially knowing they can get a lead on their NFC North rivals with a win. I am taking Detroit.
Detroit 28 Carolina 24
Seattle at San Diego: San Diego blew a lead in the MNF opening week (late) game for the second year in a row. That loss will hurt later…though they still got in the playoffs despite it. However, the Chargers’ schedule is a bit tougher in 2014, starting with the home opener against the champs. Seattle crushed the Packers at home in the NFL opener last week in a similar way to the Super Bowl…with slightly fewer points. The 10 days off will help, especially with Seattle having an early bye in 3 weeks. But Seattle is not as tough away from CenturyLink Field and their fans. But the Seahawks has so many weapons from QB Russell Wilson to RB Marshawn Lynch to WR Percy Harvin and the great defense led by CB Richard Sherman and his secondary self-titled “The Legion of Boom”. As strong as they are, the Chargers have weapons too, led by veteran QB Phillip Rivers. This game as will most of Seattle’s this year, will be must-see TV.
Who wins? After such a tough loss, the Chargers are able to bounce back, especially at home. Such would make sense if this were Arizona or St. Louis. But Seattle, like San Francisco and maybe Denver and a few others, has too much balance on offense and defense and overall explosiveness with an available Harvin for these young Chargers to keep up with without some bad weather or worse to slow them down. I have to take Seattle here, but the Chargers, like the rest of the AFC West the champs will face later, will NOT lay down for Seattle…anywhere.
Seattle 27 San Diego 21
Dallas at Tennessee: Dallas against the former Houston Oilers is a nice game to see, since we only see it once every four years now. Unfortunately, these teams are not at their best. Dallas defense is in ruin from injury, free-agent losses and a lack of talent and mismanagement in the front office. QB Tony Romo is back from injuries that cut his year short in Week 16, but his tendencies to make that one mistake at the wrong time to lose the game is still there. The offense has its weapons with WR Dez Bryant and TE Jason Witten, but the shaky offensive line and lack of special teams and defense makes the Cowboys weak as a whole and this offense cannot score 35 points every week. Tennessee is in rebuild mode and has some pieces that have potential behind QB Jake Locker, but it will take time…or will it? Tennessee won last week, and with the Colts falling to Denver and having a tough home opener with Philly on Monday night, and Houston hurting and no sure thing to beat Oakland, Tennessee could be alone in first in the AFC South. Then….anything is possible.
Who wins? Tennessee has a running game and decent defense and home field. Dallas just cannot stop anyone on defense without forcing turnovers. Control the clock and protect the ball and the Titans can win. A win over Dallas will be huge for the Titans’ confidence and who knows what could happen next? I have no faith in Romo nor his defense getting it done. I am taking the Titans.
Tennessee 24 Dallas 21
Atlanta at Cincinnati: Are the Falcons back? It would seem that way after their thrilling overtime win over the Saints last week at home. But these Falcons have a lot to prove. Can their dangerous offense work well on the road or especially outdoors? Facing the dangerous Bengals in September is good, but these Bengals are not a pushover. Like Atlanta with QB Matt Ryan, the Bengals have a good QB in Andy Dalton, but like Atlanta, the supporting cast, other than great WR A.J. Green, is questionable. This could be a scorefest.
Who wins? The Bengals are tough at home. Atlanta has the weapons to win, but doing so in the outdoors is not easy for these guys. I just don’t know away from the dome. I am going to take Atlanta because Ryan is more proven than Dalton, but the stout defense may save the day for the Bengals.
Atlanta 29 Cincinnati 27
Kansas City at Denver: Denver barely got by the Colts at home with dumb pass plays late when running the ball would have been fine. Denver QB Peyton Manning knows better. Is he showing cracks already? That defense is not looking much better, but it is only one game. KC got blasted at home last week in a loss that should not have happened. Star RB Jamaal Charles barely touched the ball. Why? WR Dwayne Bowe was suspended for that game and returns this week, but the Chiefs should have been better. Will they be better in Denver this week?
Who wins? If the Chiefs and coach Andy Reid has a much better plan this week and it works right, the Chiefs have a chance. But this team was better last year….and they lost twice to the Broncos. Denver, as a team, is…a little better than last year, even without much of a running game and without suspended WR Wes Welker (not playing Sunday but MIGHT be back next week instead of 3 weeks from now). If Denver plays this game like their last few minutes versus the Colts, a upset could happen. Otherwise, another blowout for Denver. I am taking the Chiefs in a upset.
Kansas City 31 Denver 30
New York Jets at Green Bay: The Jets got by Oakland in a game last week that did not have to be that close or they should have lost. Too many errors and so on. But they won. Green Bay got crushed by the champs in Seattle 10 days ago. The Jets are nothing like Seattle other than having an athletic QB in Geno Smith. But he is no Russell Wilson. The Packers have a bit of injuries already (what else is new?) but they still have QB Aaron Rodgers and weapons around him and a pretty good defense. Green Bay (like most teams) is tougher at home, but Lambeau Field is (usually) a magical place for these Packers. The Jets are in trouble.
Who wins? The Jets can play a perfect game and I don’t think they can stay with Green Bay’s passing game. Rodgers and coach Mike McCarthy is too good and experienced. Period. Green Bay will not look that bad at home to a less skilled team. Jets coach Rex Ryan can talk all the smack he wants…but who has won rings? Right. Not Ryan. Packers win.
Green Bay 30 New York Jets 21
Jacksonville at Washington: The Jaguars look like they could do something this year…for about 3 quarters. Then they got crushed by the Eagles. Washington did nothing against the Texans. I don’t know what happened. Washington QB Robert Griffin III got beat up, but the offense took no chances and lost. The Jags don’t have the same defense to stop the allegedly strong offense of the home team (at least it seemed that way on paper.) This may not be a high scoring game either….but it could be.
Who wins? The Jags are better than some think, but not by much. Is Washington better than they showed last week? Talent says yes, execution says no. Losing TE Jordan Reed for a long while will hurt as we go forward, but I don’t feel it should this week. RB Alfred Morris needs the ball more and Griffin needs to be allowed to do what makes him special as a QB. Rookie head coach Jay Gruden better open the playbook fast or this team won’t beat the 3-13 season last year. This will be win one…but they had better get it together or they may not find win two. Washington survives at home.
Washington 23 Jacksonville 17
Houston at Oakland: The Texans won last week but lost 1st overall pick J. Clowney for a while to a knee injury. No problem. They still have DE J.J. Watt, but he cannot carry the team all year alone. That offense needs to start doing something. Oakland lost a close one at the Jets but rookie 2nd round pick QB Derek Carr may prove to be the real deal and do some things his older brother (and former 1st overall pick) David Carr could not do when he was leading these Texans years ago. This will not be a high-scoring game.
Who wins? Whomever gets to 21 first. Honestly, I have my doubts about that. Houston has not much offense and RB Arian Foster and WR Andre Johnson cannot do it without a good QB to get the ball from, which they don’t have. Clowney made good sense to draft in the first round, but not drafting any quarterbacks after that may prove to be dumb this year. Oakland has a much better defense this year and they still have some weapons on offense. Oakland will win a few more low-scoring games because of this, especially at home. Carr will get better as the year progresses and so will the team. Raiders survive and win
Oakland 20 Houston 16
Sunday Night Football: Chicago at San Francisco: The Bears are stinging after choking at home versus Buffalo and it gets no easier going West. The Niners open their new stadium for the regular season, but hearing that the home of Super Bowl L next year is already having turf issues before the first game is not good (is this the next FedEx Field from a turf standpoint?). However, despite the off-field issues, these Niners are still tough, behind their defense and offense with QB Colin Kaepernick. They beat Dallas, but leaving points on the field against the (potentially and expected) worst defense in football is a problem. The Bears have a good offense but if WRs Alshon Jeffrey and/or Brandon Marshall cannot play due to injury, QB Jay Cutler and RB Matt Forte will have a hard time.
Who wins? The Bears defense is still pretty good, but they are not what they used to be. To stop this Niners offense, you need that old-school D. The Niners offense has a bit too much to be stopped by this team…unless the field does it to them…lol. Never mind. San Francisco wins going away.
San Francisco 30 Chicago 20
Monday Night Football: Philadelphia at Indianapolis: This could be the highest scoring game of the season. Period. This will be an offensive show in Lucas Oil Stadium. Both teams have offense. Philadelphia has the running game advantage with RB LeSean McCoy, but the defense is shaky. Sorry, blasting the Jaguars after falling behind 17-0 is not that impressive. The Colts took Denver to their limits behind QB Andrew Luck before succumbing last Sunday night. The Colts know they cannot go to 0-2, especially if the Titans win. Perhaps the Colts can overcome a 0-2 start in this division, but in the tough AFC….every win is important.
Who wins? Turnovers and missed scoring chances will decide this. Neither team has a defense that can stop anyone. Luck is already a master at comebacks, so the Eagles must control the clock with McCoy and make sure they score with their passing game. Whoever has the ball last can win it. I am going with the Colts at home. I just don’t think that defense can get it done.
Indianapolis 38 Philadelphia 35
Bonus picks:
1.
Married at First sight finale (FYI network): My wife
and I have watched this show all season with great fun. Tonight (Tuesday) is
the two hour finale. Because of other commitments, we will see the show on tape
a few minutes to maybe a hour behind the live showing, so don’t tweet or text
me or Facebook me the results early. My prediction is this:
I have felt that Jamie and Doug (despite their
really rocky start) and Jason and Cortney (who were truly the most compatible
overall) will stay together and I felt that from the end of the honeymoon on.
I mostly had no doubts. For different reasons, divorcing at the end of the
experiment would devastate some or all of them too much to not go on now.
Jason had
the best chance of weathering such due to his emotional detachment, but going
into the fire academy shortly thereafter (where he allegedly is at now…remember
the weddings and experiment were in March-April of this year and it is early
September now), but dealing with an impending divorce during this demanding 6
month course could (or should) crush even the strongest detachment and resolve
at a time where mental strength has to be as strong or stronger than physical
prowess to complete the firefighter course. Stable home life is vital and their
crazy schedules (during the show and especially after) will make it hard. But
life is not easy, and knowing that Jason’s mom may get worse (or pass away
soon) due to her cancer and how her family wants to meet him after refusing to
come to the wedding adds another layer, but a layer that will not be dealt with
until afterwards, IF they stay together. I do think they can make it, if they
give it time.
Doug has been
agreeable and almost kissing Jamie’s rear from the wedding on. She had ahorrible past to overcome and she had mostly done it BEFORE she got on this show. There is
something to be said for that. She, like the other ladies is hot, in her own way, though she hides (some of) her pain well, when she is not getting emotional and breaking down, like she did after the wedding. She is a strong woman, stronger than she realizes herself and I understand why she doesn’t want to let her guard down and let him in, especially when she had her doubts at the altar due to not having a instant physical attraction, which everyone else did (for good reason). Doug is a good man, but he is not perfect, needs some work growing up and is not necessarily the most physically attractive (I understand that sentiment all too well!). In the long run, they will work out well, even if she is “wearing the pants” in the family more of the time. She needs a man who will support and love her at all times and not judge her, no matter how many skeletons how much darkness is in her past. Doug never pushed her for sex and was patient enough to let her go at her pace in this experiment. He was smitten with her (physically and so on) from the altar on. How many men would give that kind of support AND not push having sex, ESPECIALLLY under these circumstances? She would be dumb to dump him now, I think, for having been seen on national TV for weeks, if she went back to being a single and dating, what do you think guys would do, especially if (and when) they recognize her? Yeah. If she does, she will never find a guy anything close to Doug without moving FAR out of the spotlight that this TV show has shone on her.
Vaughn and Monet are the hardest one to read. They have had communication issues from the start…though they clearly have the easiest physical connection…by her admission, especially. Can’t blame them for that. However, sex is not everything…but it helps. For a marriage to survive, you need everything. They are both headstrong and stubborn…which is what each wanted in a mate. These are things that causes conflict, without throwing in anything else. I have mostly believed that these two would divorce most of the season because of their constant communication conflicts. However, at the end of the day… I think they will want to stay together, for they need time to fully grow into love with each other. It is very hard to do that in a whirlwind 5 weeks being married as we have seen., especially with work, family, friends, and TV cameras around them more than 16 hours every day, even if the sex is VERY good. However, though I hope and pray I am wrong, Vaughn and Monet both will choose to divorce. (I will however, leave open the possibility that they decide to reconcile after the fact, before said divorce goes final.)
Prediction: Vaughn and Monet both choose to divorce. Jason says he wants to divorce Cortney, but changes his mind at the last minute, so they stay together. Jamie and Doug tearfully chooses to stay together.
Update: I got it almost exactly. Vaughn and Monet mutually
choose to divorce. So much for the experts saying they were the best (overall)
match. The other two couples stay together. Jamie was on the fence for most of
the season, it seems. Give her props for 1) overcoming her hard childhood to
get to where she is and 2) having the cojones to even try this experiment and
seeing it through even when everything in her being told her to quit. We will
see the six-month update on Tuesday night. Hopefully there will be good news
with the couples (though I expect more arguing and fireworks from the divorcing Vaughn and Monet…I kind of
side with her…he was more stubborn and immature…but he is younger…lol.) I will look forward to Season 2 in 2015!
Bonus pick 2: NSCS Chase Race 1: Chicago: The newly update
Chase for the Sprint Cup starts in Chicago today with the Challenger Round. 16
drivers are qualified with increased points. The next three races ending with
Dover leads to a cut-down to 12 teams (lowest four teams in points are out). If
a Chase driver wins any of the 3 races, he automatically qualifies for the next
round (of 3 races). Unlike previous years, a poor finish in Chicago (or next
week at New Hampshire) does not all-but eliminate you from the Chase, but all of
these drivers will race like it will…and they should. Remember, there are 27
other cars out there trying to win and do well for the last few weeks of the
NASCAR season.
Prediction: A Chase driver will win the race and at least 5
Chase drivers will finish in the top 10….BUT it will not be one of the Hendrick
cars (Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon or Kasey Kayne) winning
this race and at least 2 of them will not finish in the top 15. I think one of
the Chase drivers who got in on points and is a bottom Chase seed that wins
(Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle or Ryan Newman) here, which gets him to the next
round regardless of what happens at Loudon (New Hampshire) and Dover.
Let’s see what happens!
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