My picks for Week 9 of the NFL season (based on my thoughts, my research and what I think ONLY!):
Disclamer: These are my picks and opinions only. If you make picks and/or bet money, favors or whatever based on what is listed below with whomever or wherever, that is on you. If you win, great! Let me know (or even send me a small cut of the profits...lol!) If not, don't bitch. These picks does have 50/50 odds. Better than the lottery. If some team chokes a game due to..whatever...not my fault. I will be mad too. Maybe!
Disclaimer done: Let the games begin!
Week 6 of bye weeks begin. Fantasy football players, be sure to double check your leagues so that all of your spots are covered!
This week marks the halfway point of the 17 week NFL regular season. We have seen a lot of surprises, and some normalcy for some teams. Unfortunately, we have seen a lot of major injuries and many folk lost for the season. There are a few who may be back due to the new Injured Reserve-designated to return option that each team can use on only one person a season, so we may still see some late surprise returns and so on. From here, things get interesting with only a few more teams left to go on bye in the next few weeks. This will be an interesting stretch run to the playoffs!
Bye teams (6 teams (really?), don’t ask me why):
Denver (7-1): The 2013 Broncos look similar to the 2012 Broncos, as in real good. In the regular season. Despite having only one loss at halfway, there is little that makes me think this team will be much better than last year’s team come playoff time. Why? Future HOF QB Peyton Manning is a year older. Despite the free-agent addition of WR Wes Welker to an already good set of pass-catchers, the defense is worse, with the bizarre loss of LB Elvis Dumerville (released, signed with Baltimore) and the off season drama with two top Denver executives and the 6 game suspension of LB Von Miller (has been back for 2 weeks). The defense allows nearly 28 points a game and no fewer than 19 points to anyone so far. This is a lot of points. True, they have scored far more than that per game, but can they maintain that for 8 more games plus 2-4 playoff games? I am not sure. Now, their first showdown with undefeated Kansas City (assuming they win Sunday) is in 3 weeks. If KC wins, Denver will be down 2 games (or more if Denver loses next week with KC on bye) in the standings. Even if Denver split the season series, Denver could win 13-14 games and STILL be a wild-card, meaning no home playoff games. Denver couldn’t win a playoff game at HOME last year with home field with a better defense. Can they do it ON THE ROAD this year, if they must, with a shakier defense, especially if they must win 3 games to get to the Super Bowl? I am not convinced at this point. We will see.
Detroit (5-3): Outside of the undefeated Chiefs, these Lions are the main candidate for bounce-back team of the year. This team has many of the weapons needed to be a top team in the NFL. But considering how far they fell last year after making the playoffs in 2011, even with a record-setting season by WR Calvin Johnson, Jr., you have to wonder. Is this another version of the Giants of recent years, who have alternated playoffs (ultimately Super Bowl wins over New England) versus non-playoff years in the last four years? Maybe. But like the other dome teams, the Lions must win their division to have home field advantage. Johnson being out with injury may have prevented Detroit from finally ending their long losing streak at surging Green Bay earlier, though they DID end a longer (in terms of time) losing streak at (struggling) Washington just prior to the Green Bay loss. Detroit must realize that they must win no less than 5 (if not ALL) of their remaining games to MAYBE make the playoffs (especially upset Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day) and go on from there. Detroit must pray that the Packers lose this Sunday to put them back in a tie for the division lead while Detroit rests. Green Bay’s early bye may hurt down the stretch (and injuries are already causing that!), which will help the Lions…but ONLY if they win and take advantage. Detroit may be able to go to New Orleans and win in January in the dome, but barring major injuries to the opposition, I cannot see the Lions winning at Green Bay or Chicago (if they rally) or any other NFC cold weather city in the playoffs. I hope that these Lions (get the chance to) prove me wrong THIS YEAR. Please do!
Arizona: (4-4): The Cardinals are still a mess. They have a few weapons but they are not that young. They have a nice home stadium, but the team that plays in Arizona is not so great, especially on the road. They are .500 now, but they could be much better, but are one game out of last in their division, instead. Expected, yes, but still..not good. I have little to say about their good players….because they don’t have much. WR Larry Fitzgerald is great, but he is getting older and breaking down. A few years after their surprising and only Super Bowl appearance, this team is back to the also-ran team that has been their mantra for almost my entire lifetime. What will (or can) this team do in the tough(er) NFC West to improve? Not much this year. But they have to make that corner and get around it to be contenders sometime, right? But when? How? If it wasn’t for that nice stadium, this team would be a prime candidate to be moved to Los Angeles and/or London in the near future. Maybe…they still are. I just do not know. Show me something good, Cardinals! Please!
San Francisco (6-2): The defending NFC champs seem to be getting stronger at a good time. But the Niners are still looking up to Seattle, who crushed them at home early in the season. Can the Niners stay close and do the same when the rematch comes at Candlestick in a few weeks? As the season progresses, the Niners hope to get some receiver help back, and they will need it, even though the defense and RB Frank Gore are doing decent well. Can QB Colin Kaepernick (my Kappa brother) beat the (recent) trend and lead these Niners back to the Super Bowl, especially if they must go through Seattle and/or New Orleans and/or somewhere else (that may be real cold and snowy) to do it as a wild-card and NOT a division winner/top 2 seed? Coach Jim Harbaugh has the weapons, but…nothing is a sure thing. Being a potential 12-14 win team and STILL only be a 5 seed in the playoffs will be tough. Ask Denver (or maybe Kansas City) about that if it comes to pass! However, wild-card teams have been very good in the playoffs lately, but not the ones with 12 or more wins. The Giants and Ravens and the Steelers with former RB Jerome Bettis are recent teams who won it all as a wild-card, since the Raiders was the first wild-card playoff team to win a Super Bowl and they had 8-10 wins in the regular season. Regardless, the Niners will not be an easy out, even if they must go to cold-weather places in the playoffs.
New York Giants (2-6): The Giants are having a ****** season. No BS, no excuses. 0-6 to start is horrendous. But because the NFC East has suddenly become the NFC Least for no apparent reason (the AFC West isn’t THAT good, top to bottom, is it???), these Giants still have a chance to do the impossible and make the playoffs anyway! But their only shot is to win the East, since they are already 5 out of the second wild-card (you have to figure Seattle or San Francisco will get one of them). Can they? Philly is fading, Dallas is shaky with a lot of road games and not easy home games coming up and Washington….is coming back but is still….shaky. The Giants basically must run the table to MAYBE win this division. QB Eli Manning has the game. Coach Tom Coughlin has the experience. But do they have enough help and heart in everyone else to bring Big Blue back? I doubt it, but …I have no idea how this division will finish. Who will win the East? Even the Giants might…really?
Jacksonville (0-8): OMG! When the Detroit Lions became the first 0-16 team in NFL history a few years ago, I really thought there would not be a worse team coming along, other than MAYBE a new expansion team (LA? London?). I was wrong. These Jags are worse. They have fight, as we have seen at Denver and really in most of their games, but this Jacksonville team is more likely to go 0-16 than those Lions were. Ironically, this team may not win the first overall pick because Tampa Bay is still winless too (0-7, but they have already had a early bye)! Remember 2 years ago when the Colts seemed to be a sure worst team and win the number one overall pick, and they ALMOST blew it to the Rams by beating them late in the year? Well, with Arizona, destroyed Houston and shaky Buffalo all coming up at HOME, perhaps the Jags can win one or two games. Tampa’s schedule is tougher, but having already lost to Arizona and having another game with Atlanta (lost the first one already) and Buffalo later, too, the Jags may not win the first overall pick. I feel bad for tough RB Maurice Jones-Drew because his career (which may be closer to the end than the beginning) is being wasted in this nasty situation. Bottom line, this team is FUBAR (Google what that means, though you should all know!). The first overall pick is far from enough to help rebuild this team. Drafting a franchise QB would be a start, but the Jags need a LOT more than that. They have some young talent, but they will need time to rebuild toward contender status. But they must hurry, because a lot of traditional powers are dropping HARD and must do the same starting in 2014, including Houston and maybe Tennessee in their own division. No matter where they finish, Jacksonville needs to a do a trade to get multiple 1st round picks over the next 2-3 years, like what the Rams did with Washington, who then drafted RGIII last year. I don’t condone tanking, ever. But if the Jags fight hard and get that Number One overall pick, I hope the Jaguars front office chooses wisely how to best use that pick. They won’t come all the way from worst to first in 2014, but they can be better, and using these final 8 games of this year would be a start. I really don’t want them (and/or the Bucs) to go 0-16, but if they do…that would be rock bottom, and they can only go up from there. Right?
Week 9 Games:
Cincinnati at Miami: Thursday night on NFL Network: This matchup is nearly perfect for Halloween from a colors standpoint!!! But seriously, this is actually shaping up as a good game with potential playoff ramifications, even with 8 more weeks to go! The Bengals are 2 ½ games clear in the AFC North and is fighting for a top-2 seed for the playoffs. They cannot let off the gas now, for Denver and KC may split their two games against each other and may allow the Bengals to steal the top seed and home-field in the playoffs which will be huge!!!! Miami has lost 4 straight after a 3-0 start and also just got drummed by New England. Miami must win to stay (barely) in the playoff race. Cincinnati could survive a loss and still be there. But a true elite team wins the games they should win, even on the road. Bengals win, but a Halloween trick perpetrated by Miami would not surprise me.
Cincinnati 27 Miami 24
Atlanta at Carolina: It is kind of unfortunate what has happened to Atlanta, but injuries are the nature of the game. Carolina was not expecting to be a contender this year, but here they are. They are two games back (plus the early head-to-head loss) to the Saints, but a wild-card is possible (don’t you wish you had beat Seattle on Opening Day now???). The Panthers have to take advantage of the Falcons’ misfortune, especially at home. Is QB Cam Newton ready to do that? The possible return of injured RB Jonathan Stewart, to go with their other RBs will help..I think. It is time for Carolina to make a statement. That statement starts here and now.
Carolina 28 Atlanta 20
Baltimore at Cleveland: This game will be fun, but this would have been better in Week 15-17 with a real snow possibility. Other than Green Bay or Minnesota (starting next year), there are no better places for watching the NFL in the snow than Cleveland. Maybe later. The defending world champs are reeling, but they have one last chance to right the ship to stay close to Cincinnati. Cleveland is in the same position, but had a lot fewer expectations on their heads, especially after the Richardson trade. I now believe Cleveland is not just playing for 2014, but I will still take the road team in a minor upset, because the Ravens have more available weapons TODAY. Sorry, Cleveland.
Baltimore 28 Cleveland 27
New Orleans at the New York Jets: This is another of those games that we thought would NOT be a good one in April. Again, this is an example of what looks good on paper may not come out that way during the season. Not exactly, in this case. The Jets have proved to be better than what most had thought, but New Orleans is tough, even on the road when the weather is not too nasty. After watching the Bengals shot the Jets out of the sky multiple times last week, how are the Jets going to stop a BETTER offensive team, even outdoors in New Jersey? That is right…they will not. Learn from a master QB, Geno how to kick ass from the QB position. Hopefully one day, you will have weapons like what Brees has now…but that may be a while. Saints roll.
New Orleans 32 New York Jets 21
Minnesota at Dallas: Oh, boy. This was another game that looked great in April but looks like **** now! Dallas was stunned at the gun in Detroit last week. Minnesota…well, you know their issues. Dallas has to win this game, since they have a lot of road games left, and this may be their easiest, per se, game left. I hate taking Dallas, but Dallas has far more overall offense, starting at QB than the Vikings. And the D is okay too. Tony Romo, with his issues, is still FAR better than all of the QBs Minnesota has together. Does Adrian Peterson has any kind of throwing arm? Just a thought.
Dallas 35 Minnesota 24
Tennessee at St. Louis: Now, let’s talk about those Tennessee Titans. They are dangerous but are not contenders. Yet. They may have found their QB in Jake Locker, but this team is too far back to make a playoff run in 2013. Next year with a good draft…..interesting. The Rams are worse, even before losing former Number One overall pick QB Sam Bradford for the year. This team is tough on D and are building something. Those DEs did a number of Seattle’s Russell Wilson (though they did not have either starting OT). The Rams came up 1 yard short of a major upset. They showed big heart against a front-running team that has none (did I say that? Yes, I DID!) Oh, did I say one yard? These Titans remember that one yard thing from the Super Bowl between these teams years ago. The Titans won’t need a Music City miracle to win this one, but…considering the bad mood St. Louis (the team AND the city) is in right now…Titans, better wrap this one up early and fast. If the Rams stay in it and the dome gets loud….you will be in trouble.
Tennessee 31 St. Louis 30
Kansas City at Buffalo: Damn, is KC ever getting a week off? (Yes, after this game). KC has talent. Always did. They now have a better coach and QB. But this team’s heart is still shaky in my mind. However, the Bills don’t have enough experience or horses to round the wagons in Buffalo (or whatever Chris Berman says..lol) to steal this one. KC has not seriously crushed anyone yet (except Jacksonville on Opening Day), but they had better do it here. Denver is next at home after the KC bye, and KC may be playing for the division title if they win this week, Denver loses next week after their bye this week and then KC beats Denver twice (they play twice in 3 weeks). They have been escaping with wins every week. Forget the undefeated season. If KC doesn’t start crushing teams early and cutting the jugular vein and not let teams rally, they will be burned. A lot in the second half and/or the playoffs. KC coach Andy Reid knows all about that. Will the players listen? They had better.
Kansas City 24 Buffalo 16
Tampa Bay at Seattle: Seattle played like **** on Monday. Total ****. They should have crushed the Rams. Instead, the Rams beat on them like CM Punk beat on Paul Heyman Sunday night, and almost (probably should have) won the game. Road game or not, this is a disturbing pattern. Tampa has nothing left that can seriously challenge Seattle at home. Seattle better do the Tampa what the Bengals did to the Jets last week and also protect QB Russell Wilson a LOT better. If Wilson goes down, season over. Tampa has nothing to lose (is there that much difference between the Number 1 pick in the draft or Number 2???), and a lot to gain in a upset. I am being nice and giving Tampa 21 points, but I don’t see that happening unless Tampa gets MULTIPLE pick-sixes and/or a LOT of field goals. Oh, and if Seattle is thinking about trying to get that crowd noise Guinness record back from KC (broke it against Oakland weeks ago), this probably won’t be the week to try to do it. Sorry.
Seattle 35 Tampa Bay 21
Philadelphia at Oakland: Now, the other Pennsylvania team comes west to face the Raiders in back to back weeks. These Eagles have crumbled after winning on Opening Day. In a year where the entire NFC East looks horrible, these Eagles may be the easiest to fix. QB Michael Vick is injured again (hamstring) and looks to be out. Vick is the near-perfect choice to run this wide-open offense installed by new coach Chip Kelly; if Vick were 10 years younger and less susceptible to injuries. The blessing of his amazing speed and arm, especially being a southpaw is balanced out by his not huge size (6 feet, 225 or so) and his propensity to get hurt…a lot. Backup QB Nick Foles (concussion) looks like will play this week. Let’s hope he stays upright. Rookie QB Matt Barkley just plain sucks. Dangerous QB Terrelle Pryor did a Tony Dorsett on the proud Steeler D and set a NFL QB rushing record (93 yard TD run from scrimmage) that will be hard to break. Worse, that same D let talented but fragile RB Darren McFadden run in 2 TDs (the first time in a while!). Philly’s D is not nearly as good as the Steelers, even with keeping a punch-less Giants offense out of the end zone. They cannot stop this running game, or even the pass game, if Oakland actually tries to throw the ball this week! The Raiders will quietly complete a rare Pennsylvania sweep. Are they digging back into the wild-card (if not the division) race? Beware the Silver and Black! Happy Halloween!
Oakland 24 Philadelphia 15
San Diego at Washington: Washington has had a tough year so far, but even after a crushing loss at Denver last week, the two-win Redskins are STILL only two games out of first. WTF???? RGIII is improving as is the rest of the team. The Chargers are hanging in and have already won twice on the East Coast. This will be a close one. But the Redskins can run the ball (besides Griffin III) better, and can control the clock and keep QB Phillip Rivers on the sideline (which is what they did not do in the second half versus Denver) if the coaches start using common sense. The defense will rally versus a shakier SD offense. Redskins in an upset to stay in the NFC East race. For now.
Washington 28 San Diego 27
Pittsburgh at New England: Well, this is an interesting one. Pittsburgh looked to be rallying after starting 0-4 with two straight wins. But Oakland shut them down for the second year in a row. (Told you they would!!!!). The Patriots are in their accustomed position in first place in the AFC East, but they are still very shaky with a young set of wideouts. Having the Gronk back at TE will help. QB Tom Brady knows how tough the Steeler D is so he will be careful. Unfortunately for the Steelers, the offense is not strong enough to get by this week, especially on the road. Patriots get by again.
New England 27 Pittsburgh 21
Indianapolis at Houston: Sunday Night Football on NBC: When the schedule came out in April, we all thought that this would be a great game. Not now and not for the reasons we may have thought! The Colts are looking strong, behind QB Andrew Luck. Though RB Trent Richardson (traded from Cleveland for the Colts 2014 1st round pick weeks ago) has yet to start really going, the Colts seem to have the AFC South under control. Houston is now a train wreck, due to injuries, age and Lord knows what else. Houston can save coach Gary Kubiak’s job if they rally to finish .500, I think, but they must win this game to start to show the fans the season is not over for the Texans. Yet. The Colts choked a early game to Miami. They must not lose this one on the road.
Indianapolis 30 Houston 23
Monday Night Football on ESPN. Note the 830pm start time.
Chicago at Green Bay: When the schedule came out in April, we all thought that this would be a great game. It still is, but not as much as it was. But then again, since most to the ESPN MNF schedule sucks in general, we cannot complain when a good one comes up. Green Bay looked dead earlier on, but are coming on now, even with injuries mounting and are now back in first by a half game over idle Detroit and a game over these Bears. The Bears are in bad trouble after a good start (at home) with QB Jay Cutler out after getting hurt down south in the Redskins loss. He is trying to rally and be available for this game, but I don’t see that. Maybe next Sunday on a short week, but not this Monday. These Bears seem almost like domesticated cats away from Soldier Field, but they need to grow some bear testicles and win the road games, starting now!!! Even so, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is still good to go and a tough challenge, but with his own receiver core decimated by injury, the still-tough Bears D will be a big challenge for him. The Packers’ young replacement receivers and tight ends had better be up to the task or this will be a big upset. Neither team can afford a loss with Detroit right with them. I will take Green Bay in a close one if RB Eddie Lacy can run hard for a lot of yards this week (good luck with that), but both teams may really wish later they had tried to trade for some more help before last Tuesday’s trade deadline passed. The Lions are hoping for a traditional NFC North full brawl with few folks left standing for this one. They may get their wish.
Green Bay 28 Chicago 27
Bonus picks:
I have updated my records here. Note: I did give myself a win and a loss on the CM Punk bonus pick, however.
Loss: Punk did pin Ryback to win the match, which I did not think he would do.
Win: Punk did beat down Paul Heyman after the pinfall, which I expected. I thought that Heyman was supposed to be IN the Cell during the match, instead of hiding out ON TOP of the Cell, for all the good that did.
Boston won the World Series 4-2 Wednesday night (it is Thursday afternoon as I write this). Great series. Congratulations to both teams.
I almost feel bad that I did get the Seattle pick right, for they deserved to lose. Oh, well. Here is my bonus picks for this week:
NASCAR:
At Texas this week, with only 3 races left in the Chase for the Sprint Cup:
1.
A non-Chase driver will win the race, in particular a
surprising winner. Maybe even Danica Patrick (okay, maybe not).
2.
Jimmie Johnson will not be the outright points leader
after this race, but he will not fall more than 5 points behind co-leader Matt
Kenseth.
3.
There will be more than 7 cautions in this race.
4.
The race for the Chase will be more than a two-horse
race going into Phoenix next week, with the finale at Homestead (near Miami) in
two weeks being wild and meaning a lot this year.
Think my picks suck? Send me a reply and tell me why! Good luck to everyone.
NFL picks: 63-56 after 8 weeks; 10-8 on bonus picks; Total 73-64 overall (as of Halloween).
