My picks for Week 5 of the NFL season (based on my thoughts, my research and what I think ONLY!):
Disclamer: These are my picks and opinions only. If you make picks and/or bet money, favors or whatever based on what is listed below with whomever or wherever, that is on you. If you win, great! Let me know (or even send me a small cut of the profits...lol!) If not, don't bitch. These picks does have 50/50 odds. Better than the lottery. If some team chokes a game due to..whatever...not my fault. I will be mad too. Maybe!
Disclaimer done: Let the games begin!
Week 2 of bye weeks begin. Fantasy football players, be sure to double check your leagues so that all of your spots are covered!
And to all the families of non-essential Federal workers who are on furlough right now, stay strong! Hopefully, this BS will be all over by the time I write next week’s picks (usually on Wednesday evening).
Bye teams:
Pittsburgh (0-4): I respect the Steelers for the classy franchise that they are, from top to bottom. I am a Raiders fan, so that should say something. This team is old for the most part and needed to rebuild some, but seeing them like this, after devastating injuries from Week 1 on is sad to see. They will be back (soon, I think), and they will fight hard all year, but they won’t see the playoffs this year. The rest of the AFC North is rising (Ravens may be treading water) but Pittsburgh, for at least this year is overmatched. However, if you are their opponent and you don’t play well and/or turn over the ball a lot to them, these Steelers will burn you for they have weapons, some of which we are just starting to see. Be warned, NFL. Don’t say you weren’t warned.
Tampa Bay (0-4): This team is totally useless. In some ways, this team could be the worst in the NFL. What they did to QB Josh Freeman was wrong and practically criminal in some ways. Freeman has not met to the team’s expectations as a Number 1 pick, true. But if the Bucs had something to do with leaking his issues that got him into the NFL’s drug treatment program to the public (which they should not have done, based on the details that Freeman explained a few days ago, Google it for the total story), that was wrong, especially if they really want to trade him to another team. Not happening. They have no discipline on the field (as we saw versus the Jets in Week 1), and this team is just bad anyway. I am not sure how much the coaching staff has to do with this, but I don’t see this team winning more than 3 games, nor the head coach being here next year, if the Glazer family was smart. This situation totally tarnishes one of their best players, Warren Sapp, going into the Hall of Fame this year. Too bad.
Minnesota (1-3): The Vikings probably are not going to get back into the playoff race with this poor start. However, with Green Bay only 1-2 (they were on bye last week) and the Bears falling to Detroit (both are 3-1), there is still a small hope for the Vikings. Except that two of those losses were to Detroit AND Chicago. Minnesota would have to all but win out their final 12 games, especially the remaining 4 division games, to make the playoffs. If Peterson runs like he did last year and the rest of the team rallies, starting now, like they did to sneak in the playoffs last year, especially with several playoff teams from last year faring no better right now, who knows? Stranger things have happened.
Washington (1-3): My home state team has had a crazy year already. Robert Griffin III has had issues returning from his knee injury last season, but he is still upright and getting better. Hopefully running back Alfred Morris heals quickly from his injuries from last week, for they need his running even more now. With this week off, he may be ready to become close to the player he was most of last year. BUT…the defense that was crazy good the last seven games has regressed to far worse than when they were 3-6 last year. They looked better against Oakland, but remember they were down 14-0. Yes the Redskins D has 3 TDs, but all were because of really bad mistakes by the opponents rather than great D by the Skins. Special teams are not good either. The saving graces is that the ENTIRE NFC East sucks and seem to be the worst division in football all of a sudden (and I don’t know why), and half of the playoff teams in the NFC have a losing record. This makes the murderer’s row of an upcoming schedule a little less impossible. Can RGIII lead this team back? If the defense and special teams gets better and stays there, yes. If not, that will be the reason this team doesn’t make the playoffs in 2013, NOT Robert Griffin III, or his rebuilt knee.
Week 5 Games:
Buffalo at Cleveland: Thursday night on NFL Network: The Bills are building a nice team, but they are far from good. Cleveland has won 2 straight and look a lot more gritty and dangerous, even after trading Trent Richardson to the Colts. Cleveland may be on to something. And with extra draft picks next year, they can get some serious help to add to things. Now it seems this team has not given up on 2013. And that is a good thing. Cleveland is always hard to handle at home, except for the top teams, which Buffalo is not.
Cleveland 24 Buffalo 20
Detroit at Green Bay: No one would have thought the Lions would have the better record going into this one, but they do. But to keep the momentum of finally beating Washington in DC and upsetting the Bears at home, they must beat the Packers at Lambeau. It isn’t December and Matt Flynn is no longer here. After a week off, the Packers know what they must do to get back in the playoff and division race. They have the weapons and the experience to do it. But that shaky running game is still a problem and Detroit has a nasty offensive line. Green Bay needs this win for sure. If they blow this one, I fear for the Pack in the rematch on Thanksgiving in Detroit (and I hope they don’t do those stupid-looking throwbacks AGAIN then!). The Lions are due now and then, so I am picking the upset, both now and then. Deal with it.
Upset Special 1!
Detroit 34 Green Bay 31
Denver at Dallas: Dallas sucks. Period. But so does the entire NFC East. The AFC West is wearing you guys out. Dallas should have beat KC. Unfortunately, Denver is (apparently) better than KC. Dallas may be better in that mega-palace they call a stadium now, but Peyton Manning and the Broncos look unstoppable….on offense. Their defense has been giving up over 20 points again, but as long as they put up 40 points a game, who cares? Dallas has weapons on both sides of the ball but not as many as Denver (on offense). Denver keeps rolling….for now.
Broncos 37, Cowboys 25
Kansas City at Tennessee: Kansas City looks unstoppable, but they haven’t had a hard schedule yet. Dallas should have beat them in KC, but didn’t, and Philly just didn’t have the D to beat the Chiefs at home. Now the tests begin with a gritty Titans team who is on fire too, but just lost their starting QB for possibly most of the regular season. I am not a big believer in Ryan Fitzpatrick, but he is a veteran and has been a starter before and he does have Chris Johnson and a tough D on his side. These Titans may be this year’s Colts. To stay in the AFC South race, especially with Houston and Indianapolis shaky, they must keep winning, especially at home. This can be a signature win, but they have to take it. I am taking the upset, because…hey, I am a Raider fan and I still don’t believe in KC. If KC is looking ahead to Oakland next week, doom on them! Can Andy Reid give these guys some heart? I doubt it.
Upset Special 2!
Titans 27 Chiefs 24 (OT)
Carolina at Arizona: This game will be weird. Has Carolina turned a corner? We will see. Is Arizona able to steal another one at home? I really don’t know. This game can go either way and not many people care who wins. I take the road team simply because I am a Raider fan, and you know the rest!
Carolina 20 Arizona 17
Philadelphia at New York Giants: Those of you who thought Philly was all that with Chip Kelly, you thought wrong! Those of you who thought the Giants would bounce back from last year’s disappointment…you were wrong too. However, this game has implications for both, with Dallas not that far ahead and the Redskins starting to rally and on their bye week. The Giants having anything to play for at 0-4 is a shock, but win this game and with Dallas (probably) losing to Denver at home, the Giants could be only 1 game out of first with an even division record. But this is the Giants last chance to start a comeback, because even with a Dallas loss, 0-5 and 0-2 in division is too much to overcome. But Philly has no D and we know how brittle Vick and the other offensive weapons are. This will be a tight one, and the most interesting game with two teams with one win between them that you will see in a long time. Just to be nice, I take the Giants, since I wasn’t dumb enough to last week.
New York Giants 20 Philadelphia 17
New England at Cincinnati: New England has found ways to get by with no real receivers or tight ends to speak of and a so-so running game. The latter has been going on for years, but the former is a surprise. However, when you have future HOF QB Tom Brady and head coach Bil Belichick, ways are found to win. But this win by smoke and mirrors has to end sometime. Cincinnati may have the talent to do it, and home field, but last week’s horrible performance at Cleveland shows the flaws well. But the Bengals are undefeated at home, and they can throw and run and play some D. Can this team stop the Brady miracle parade, at least for one week? No, especially if the Gronk and/or Amendola return to the New England lineup. But then again, Brady and his young receivers are getting more experience and maturity. That counts for a lot. Sorry, Bengals fans, but no upset here.
New England 27 Cincinnati 21
Seattle at Indianapolis: Seattle is undefeated, but has had close calls. The Colts are a bit shaky but still dangerous, especially as they add new RB Trent Richardson to the mix. The matchup of Russell Wilson versus Andrew Luck makes this worth watching, no matter the result. I think the Colts upset the Seahawks at home, but only with a FG at the buzzer. Call it karma (or payback) for the overtime win at Houston last week. What goes around comes around!
Upset Special 3!
Indianapolis 30 Seattle 28
New Orleans at Chicago: New Orleans has looked great so far. So has Chicago..at home. This could be trouble for the Bears. The Saints can be tough on the road and outdoors when snow and cold air is not involved. This is early October and going to Soldier Field in early October is a gift to the dome team. The Bears are a different team at home, but can they score enough to keep up with the Saints? The Saints know they have a lot of outdoor games to play, and they have to get as many wins as they can and try to get home field for the playoffs. Unfortunately, so does Chicago for the same reasons. This may be the game of the week, but I have to take future HOF Brees on the road. Sorry, Chicago D.
New Orleans 30 Chicago 28
Baltimore at Miami: Both teams are coming off ugly losses, though the Ravens’ loss was worse than Miami’s on Monday night in New Orleans. The Ravens offense is hurting with wideouts and all-world RB Ray Rice hurting and/or out, but they still have Flacco and they still have D, which has been more Raven-like after the Denver beatdown. Can Miami bounce back from losing in New Orleans on MNF? Yes, but this D will shut Tannehill down. Sorry. You lose.
Ravens 23 Dolphins 16
Jacksonville at St. Louis: This may be boring, but it has some intrigue. Neither offense looks that good, but the game is at St. Louis. This could go either way. Probably the lowest scoring game of the week. If the Jaguars want to avoid 0-16, this is a game they must win. The Rams must forget last Thursday and not lose to arguably the worst team in the NFL. But, I will take the upset.
Upset Pick 4:
Jaguars 21 Rams 17
Houston at San Francisco: Sunday Night Football on NBC: Well, this is an interesting one. Houston is reeling after an OT loss to undefeated Seattle. The 49ers are happy after crushing the Rams on the road. The game is at night and outdoors. Houston’s D has no answer for Colin K. 49ers will add to their momentum.
49ers 30 Texans 20
San Diego at Oakland: Late Sunday Night (1135pm EDT) on NFL Network (NOT CBS!): This game was moved from their 425pm slot due to field preparations after the Oakland Athletics playoff game on Saturday in Oakland. I am pleased for an extra prime-time game, but this will be a LONG night! Phillip Rivers showed a flash of a top-rated QB in leading the Chargers, but that alone won’t stop the Raiders and the Black Hole. The Raiders D is better than some think, but they need to find consistency. The Chargers are tough. But they will have issues with a Raider team that can fight, especially if Pryor returns from injury. I take Oakland in a close one.
Raiders 28 Chargers 24
Monday Night Football on ESPN. Note the 830pm start time.
New York Jets at Atlanta: The NFL and ABC/ESPN actually thought this would be good on Monday Night Football? NOT! The Jets may be exceeding their talent, but at least they are still fighting to win games. Atlanta is tough, and I know Roddy White is hurting and trying to play and get healthy, but Atlanta was choking games last year too. They are not as good as their press says they are and their record proves it. I hate to do it, but I have to take the Jets. Atlanta needs to learn how to finish off a win, and I am doubting this is the week when they start doing it.
Upset Pick 5!
Jets 27 Falcons 24
Bonus picks:
Golf:
United States will defeat the International Team at the President Cup this weekend (Thursday-Sunday)
Tiger Woods will win at least one match outright (either in team or in his individual match)
Baseball: Divison Series picks:
American League:
East champ and 1 seed Boston beats Wild Card winner Tampa Bay in 5 games
West champ and 2 seed Oakland beats Central champ Detroit in 4 games
National League:
Wild Card winner Pittsburgh upsets Central champ and 1 seed St. Louis in 4 games
West Champ Los Angeles beat East champ and 2 seed Atlanta in 5 games
Think my picks suck? Send me a reply and tell me why! Good luck to everyone.
Record: 31-31 after 4 weeks, 1-1 on bonus picks: Total 32-32 overall. I told you my picks would get better.
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