My picks for Week 7 of the NFL season (based on my thoughts, my research and what I think ONLY!):
Disclamer: These are my picks and opinions only. If you make picks and/or bet money, favors or whatever based on what is listed below with whomever or wherever, that is on you. If you win, great! Let me know (or even send me a small cut of the profits...lol!) If not, don't bitch. These picks does have 50/50 odds. Better than the lottery. If some team chokes a game due to..whatever...not my fault. I will be mad too. Maybe!
Disclaimer done: Let the games begin!
Week 4 of bye weeks begin. Fantasy football players, be sure to double check your leagues so that all of your spots are covered!
Federal Government shutdown is OVER as of early Thursday morning! About ************* time! Part that really sucks? We may have to do this AGAIN in three months. Well, football will be done by then….lol.
My picks were horrible last week, but I am confident I will bounce back this week!
Bye teams (only 2 this week, don’t ask me why):
New Orleans (5-1): The 2013 Saints are the ultimate example of how important a good, if not a great coach can be to a team. Last year, with head coach Sean Payton suspended without pay for his role in the Bounty-gate scandal, the Saints were rudderless having to use three different assistants to get through the season, even with most of their best players, including QB Drew Brees available and playing. This year, with Payton back and again with Brees and friends, the Saints started 5-0 before losing in the final 10 seconds at New England.
The NFC South is in shambles with injuries, drama and/or near ineptitude sapping the strength from Atlanta, Carolina and Tampa Bay. The Saints, with division wins over everyone else AND a 3 game lead going into this week, barring a collapse of historic proportions, should make the playoffs. Here is the other shoe part. The Saints need to keep winning. This dome team almost absolutely needs to have home field in the playoffs. Dome teams, other than Dallas (who now have a retractable dome), historically do poorly outdoors in the playoffs, unless it is a warm-weather site. Considering how tough it is to go into warm(er) NFC sites like Seattle or San Francisco and win anytime, these Saints know that playing outdoors in the playoffs almost surely means a loss. Simple as that!
Oakland (2-4): Once again, Oakland is struggling. But then, no one outside of Raider fans expects much from the 2013 team. With the team about to be freed from years of financial hardship and draft busts in 2014, 2013 was about rebuilding and maybe even stealing a wild-card berth in the playoffs. Injuries from nearly Day One along the offensive line and to All-Pro RBs Darren McFadden and Marcel Reese have not helped, nor has a difficult opening schedule that had the Raiders having to play the last two undefeated teams (who are BOTH in their division) AND AFC South leader Indianapolis in the first six weeks, ALL on the road.
There is hope, however. Oakland, despite the injuries and inopportune penalties and mistakes (less than in previous years though) that cost the Raiders wins, IS competitive again. Few can totally deny that. Plus, they may have found their QB of now and the future in 2010 supplemental draft pick, Terrelle Pryor. With the defense also improving with a mix of young and veteran talent, and second year coach Dennis Allen knowing that starting next year, Oakland will be players both in free agency and in the draft, the future is bright, even if the Raiders cannot make the playoffs, like Pryor and the fans (hope and) believe still can be done in 2013. With the final ten games being a little easier AND winnable with home games with Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, KC and Denver (final week) AND winnable road games at San Diego, both the Jets and Giants in New Jersey and in Dallas on Thanksgiving afternoon, the Raiders are not done for 2013, if they return from the bye healthier and they stay that way. Besides, the NFL is more exciting this way too.
Week 7 Games:
Seattle at Arizona: Thursday night on NFL Network: This seems like a easy one for the Seahawks, but Arizona does have weapons. San Francisco did win here a few weeks ago, but they didn’t exactly dominate. Seattle has looked less than impressive on the road, but know they must win this one since the Niners are still right behind them. If Seattle played liked they did on Opening Day at Carolina, this could be a big upset. But I do think the Seahawks see the whole story and will get the win, but not by a big margin, similar to the Niners’ road win over the Cardinals.
Seattle 23 Arizona 17
Cincinnati at Detroit: Detroit is a story of two teams: Can be dangerous at home, but not such away from Ford Field, especially outdoors. However, these Lions have issues when Calvin Johnson is not on the field, but they may have found a new weapon to go with Johnson, QB Matthew Stafford and RB Reggie Bush in rookie TE Joseph Fauria. Look, he won’t score 3 TDs again this week but he can be a threat that has to take some attention from the others, especially in the Red Zone (for non-football folk, the Red Zone is the area from the opponent’s 20 yard line to their end zone which is the prime scoring area for most teams, where most touchdowns are scored and field goals are easiest to make and barring mistakes are USUALLY sure things except maybe in bad weather). The Bengals are a tough team and also have offensive weapons. Playing indoors, which they don’t do in division and rarely do in conference (Houston and Indianapolis are the only AFC teams with (retractable) domed stadiums. Seven NFC teams have domes, 3 of which are retractable, but one is going away with Minnesota leaving the Metrodome after this season.). However, I am not sure, despite the Bengals’ good start, that they have the weapons and the defense to slow down a fully stocked Lions’ offense at Ford Field. You know about the dangers of the Lion’s defensive line. If this game was in Ohio, I would take the Bengals, but I am not going against these Lions at home. If the Bears’ strong D allowed 40 to these guys in Detroit, what do you think other teams with lesser D is going to do if Detroit makes few mistakes (in all phases of the game)? Lions must protect their house to get a shot at the playoffs, much less the division title. They will here.
Lions 31 Bengals 27
Buffalo at Miami: This game will be weird. Miami has been better than in recent years, but now they are getting into the heart of their schedule. Buffalo is starting to improve, but without surprisingly good rookie QB EJ Manuel (knee injury), the Bills are shaky, especially since their two headed RB combo of CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson and WR Steve Johnson have all suffered from injury and tough defenses. Buffalo nearly upset New England at home early in the season. But without Manuel and their playmakers at full strength…don’t see this upset coming. Sorry.
Miami 28 Buffalo 17
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: This is another of those games that we thought would be a good one in April. Again, this is an example of what looks good on paper may not come out that way during the season. The Bucs is the train wreck that the Jets looked like in pre-season. It is unfortunate and I am not sure how this will turn out. This team deserves to be 0-5, and they should been at least 1-4, if not for the stupid play on Opening Day. Atlanta is looking nearly as bad because of the injuries that have sapped the team of most of their offensive playmakers. Future HOF Tony Gonzalez is STILL a great player and QB Matt Ryan has game, but with no real running game or healthy good wide receivers screws the team, especially since the defense is not so good, either. This game will be close but I will take the home team…this time.
Atlanta 24 Tampa Bay 21
New England at New York Jets: New England finally may get their regular TE Rob Gronkowski back and Patriot fans are happy. NOT!!! No Gronk this week. Will he even play this year? No idea. The Patriots barely got by the Jets the first time in New England. Now the Pats are flying high after beating the then-undefeated Saints just before the final gun at Foxboro last week, but these Jets are better than they were in Week 2, even with the loss to the winless Steelers last week. Rookie Jets QB Geno Smith has game. If there is a time for the Jets to get a big win and start looking like a contender again, now is the time…or be forced to wait another few years for a shot.
UPSET SPECIAL!
New York Jets 38 New England 30
St Louis at Carolina: The Rams have had a hard time this year and a lot of bad luck. Carolina is hard to figure out. The things we do know is the Rams are not as good away from home, and Carolina is much tougher at home, especially if QB Cam Newton gets space to run and his passing game is on. Carolina came so close to upsetting Seattle at home on Opening Day, and later crushed the still-winless Giants, but couldn’t stop the Saints. Which Panthers team will show up? Either one should beat these Rams who have a ways to go to being a good team….right?
Carolina 31 St. Louis 23
Cleveland at Green Bay: This game is actually important to BOTH teams! WTF??? Cleveland looked like they were playing for 2014 after trading away RB Trent Richardson, but surprisingly, the Browns are on fire. Green Bay started out with tough losses to San Francisco and Cincinnati, but after their early bye, the Packers looked like they are getting back on track, but had two of their dangerous receivers injured. One, Randall Cobb, is out for several weeks if not longer with a broken leg. The other, James Jones, may be back sooner. Fortunately, the Pack still has Jordy Nelson and all-world QB Aaron Rodgers, but that shaky running game is still shaky and all-pro LB Clay Matthews is still out with a broken thumb. Cleveland has a great chance to pull off a big upset at Lambeau and stay in the division race. We will see.
UPSET SPECIAL 2!
Cleveland 27 Green Bay 24
San Francisco at Tennessee: The 49ers are falling behind the rival Seahawks, but Seattle’s late loss to the Colts last week, who already beat the Niners in SF earlier, will help later in potential tie-breaker scenarios. Still, SF needs wins to stay in wild-card contention, assuming they cannot catch Seattle in the division (down 1 game and in head-to-head, with the 2nd head-to-head game coming soon). The Titans are getting tougher, but I am not thinking they can stop QB Colin Kaepernick and RB Frank Gore, even at home. Close game, but I am going with the road team here.
San Francisco 27 Tennessee 23
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: This will be a fun game to watch. Baltimore versus Pittsburgh is normally must see TV. But Pittsburgh is decimated, though they got their first win versus the Jets last week. Baltimore is struggling, too, especially after a close home loss to Green Bay. I would watch this game anyway because it will be good, despite the records. Baltimore has enough to get by a pesky, but proud Steelers team at home.
Baltimore 27 Pittsburgh 24 (OT)
San Diego at Jacksonville: Well, after last week, no one is laughing as much at the Jags now. I told you NOT to take Denver and the 27 points! Manning got beat up some and even suffered his own pick-six (his 22nd of his career) and looked upset afterwards. Whatever. But Denver won. Phillip Rivers is looking good again as the Chargers’ QB. But getting beat down by the Raiders doesn’t help things, though SD did win last week. I do not think the Jags win this week, but they are still fighting and NOT playing dead (yet). Good for them! I want to see Jacksonville actually win a game, but I don’t think it will be in this game. Sorry.
Chargers 31 Jaguars 27
Houston at Kansas City: This game is important! KC is 6-0, but has not really been challenged yet, except for Dallas, Tennessee and now Oakland. KC escaped mostly due to their opponent’s errors and not because they were that much better, though they have the tools and a real good coach in Andy Reid. Being undefeated gets harder with each win. Houston, however, is a train wreck. After last week, Houston may actually be happy to not be at home right now. I am not sure if young T.J. Yates will start or injured and much-maligned starter Matt Schaub will start, but it won’t matter. Not enough offense, not enough defense. Free agent Chiefs win again and their D may even extend the dubious pick-six record of Houston QBs to six. Fun, fun, fun!
Chiefs 30 Texans 20
Dallas at Philadelphia: Few would think that this game would be a battle for the division lead. But it is. The NFC East has looked like the worst division in football, with these two teams at 3-3, and Washington and the Giants combining for 1 win so far. Well, this is what it is. Dallas got a big win over the Redskins at home last week, but the injury bug hit hard. Some injured Dallas guys may still play here, but regardless, I expect some letdown here, plus the fact that the Cowboys will be on the road for most of the time between now and their Thanksgiving Day game versus Oakland. Dallas looks shaky on the road. Philly sucks too, but…I have to take Philly at home in a less major than usual upset.
Philadelphia 27 Dallas 24
Chicago at Washington: Chicago is a tough team, but they are much tougher at home. Washington has had a tough year so far, but even after a crushing loss to Dallas, the one-win Redskins are STILL only two games out of first, but need to start winning NOW and cannot afford any more conference (4) or division, much less home losses (2 each already). RGIII is improving as is the rest of the team. The Bears…well, they are not regressing….but they are not improving much, either. I will take the home team in a close one.
Washington 27 Chicago 24 (OT)
Denver at Indianapolis: Sunday Night Football on NBC: Well, this is an interesting one. Peyton Manning returns to Indianapolis for the first time since he was released in a salary cap move before last year’s draft. He comes back leading a undefeated Denver team that has more weapons on offense and arguably a defense that allows a lot of points, but the offense scores a lot more (so far). Manning is stinging after a harder than expected win over Jacksonville. This game will be emotional for him and not an easy one. 2012 Number One overall pick Andrew Luck has game! His Colts shocked everyone when they went to the playoffs in their first year. This year, this team is leading the weaker than expected AFC South. Do these guys have enough D to slow down the Broncos? We will see, but I do think the Broncos D will have problems with the Colts offense, even with suspended LB Von Miller back in the lineup. If the Colts can use their revamped (but thin in bodies) running game to help keep Manning and the Broncos offense on the sideline AND still score a lot of points, an upset is to be had. I will say that the inflammatory comments of Colts owner Jim Irsay toward Manning and what he did as the Colts QB was a dumb move, but the Colts have far more game than Jacksonville does AND the game is in Indy. Irsay may be right on some points, but the bottom line is that he does not have that ONE Lombardi Trophy NOR that new stadium without Peyton Manning being there for over a decade. Bitching about not having more rings is dumb, and such is more HIS fault than Manning’s. Should have spent more money on giving Tony Dungy, and the coaches after him the resources to get a better D, running game and improve the overall roster than kissing Peyton’s ass and giving him more money every other year or so for falling in the playoffs to Brady and the Pats and others. I think the Colts, with all the backstory, will win, but barely, because Peyton will be distracted and the Colts have a team that can stay with a distracted Denver, and maybe even do better as a result. I look forward to see the pre or post-game handshake between Irsay and Manning. Denver coach John Fox….just shut up!
Indianapolis 31 Denver 28
Monday Night Football on ESPN. Note the 830pm start time.
Minnesota at New York Giants: When the schedule came out in April, we all thought that this would be a great game. The Giants, world champs two years ago, was supposed to come back strong, especially in a crazy (as in crazy weak!) NFC East. Instead Eli is throwing INTs like he is a very bad rookie QB, the running game is a joke and the defense…just has not been good. But 0-6?? Wow! Minnesota, who was a surprise wild-card team last year with star RB Adrian Peterson performing a medical miracle to carry this dysfunctional team to the playoffs and only 9 yards from the single season rushing record the year after a major knee injury cost him a lot of games late in the year. 1-4??? Not good either, though last week’s loss should be more of a throwaway game considering the team’s sadness over Peterson’s personal tragedy during the week leading up to the home loss to Carolina (the sudden and senseless death of his young son, our condolences to him, his family and all affected by this). Should Peterson have played? That is a personal choice and you cannot say one or the other is wrong. Also, other drama swirls with the signing of sudden free agent QB Josh Freeman after the Bucs released him. Freeman may start at QB this week. Honestly, NONE of the Vikings’ QBs are better than Eli Manning, or even close right now, just like none of the Giants’ RB are even close to Peterson (few backs in this league is). Who wins? The Vikings have to be distracted, as they were last Sunday. The Giants are at home, which helps them. If the Giants cannot win the game under these extreme circumstances AT HOME, then we may have to start wondering who will win first: Jacksonville, Tampa Bay or the Giants? I am not sure I want to bet on the last one. Giants win…barely.
Giants 28 Vikings 27
Bonus picks:
I have updated my record with bonus picks from last week. Detroit beat Oakland (loss), but Bradley won on Saturday (win). Basically, I expect that Boston (tied 2-2 with Detroit) and St. Louis (now leading 3-2) may go to the World Series, but I will wait until the weekend to make this prediction.
Think my picks suck? Send me a reply and tell me why! Good luck to everyone.
NFL picks: 44-47 after 5 weeks; 6-3 on bonus picks; Total 50-50 overall (as of October 17th).
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