My picks for Week 6 of the NFL season (based on my thoughts, my research and what I think ONLY!):
Disclamer: These are my picks and opinions only. If you make picks and/or bet money, favors or whatever based on what is listed below with whomever or wherever, that is on you. If you win, great! Let me know (or even send me a small cut of the profits...lol!) If not, don't bitch. These picks does have 50/50 odds. Better than the lottery. If some team chokes a game due to..whatever...not my fault. I will be mad too. Maybe!
Disclaimer done: Let the games begin!
Week 3 of bye weeks begin. Fantasy football players, be sure to double check your leagues so that all of your spots are covered!
Week 2 of Federal Government shutdown: To all the families of non-essential Federal workers who are on furlough right now, stay strong! Hopefully, this BS will be all over by the time I write next week’s picks (usually on Wednesday or Thursday morning).
Bye teams (only 2 this week, don’t ask me why):
Atlanta (1-5): The Falcons are a great example of what happens when a team has great expectations to do great things…and then life bites them in the ass. This should be a lesson to all that you should NEVER ASSUME you will be in the mix every year, because one (or a few) injury or similar event that takes a top player out of your lineup can doom your season, even if it is early (hear that Washington Nationals ????).
Last year, Atlanta was 13-3 and the top seed in the NFC playoffs, where they lost at home to San Francisco for the chance to go to the Super Bowl after barely beating Seattle at home in the divisional round. That was then. This year, both teams came out slow, but Atlanta has dropped like a rock while the Niners are (mostly) stabilizing. After a narrow loss at New Orleans in Week 1, this team has lost playmaker after playmaker on their (formerly) dangerous offense. Their defense was middle of the pack last year at best, and are worse now. WR Roddy White has been hurt all year with ankle (and now hamstring) problems. He may not play next week after the bye or beyond. Free agent pickup RB Stephen Jackson has been out since Week 1 (no idea when he will be back) and now All-Pro WR Julio Jones, who was injured in Monday’s loss at home to the Jets, is out for the season.
QB Matt Ryan now has no real weapons (other than future HOF TE Tony Gonzalez) to throw to, so Atlanta is done. Ryan is a damn good QB without question, but without a decent defense to keep other teams from scoring, or a real running game to keep defenses honest, AND no viable WRs who can take some coverage off Gonzalez, then Atlanta has no chance. But this team might be a beast in 2014, especially if they convince Gonzales to put off retirement ANOTHER year (not laying odds on THAT) and if they get a playmaker with a unplanned high draft pick in a allegedly deep class. Not having to draft a new QB will help (which makes it wise that Atlanta has already resigned Ryan, though I think they overpaid worse than the Ravens did with Flacco.) Will head coach Mike Smith be here in 2014? That may totally come down to how Atlanta does in the final 10 games. Too close to call now.
Miami (3-2): New uniform, new logo, new attitude, new players. Miami is considered to be a sleeper playoff team this year. Starting 3-0 helps, including a win over AFC South leader Indianapolis, though free agent pickup WR Mike Wallace has been underwhelming so far. Back to back losses to undefeated New Orleans and at home to defending champ Baltimore has brought them back to earth. BUT, this team has not faced AFC East leader New England (who look more vulnerable than they have in years) nor the surprising New York Jets yet. With the East wide open, and the power teams of the AFC North and South, other than the Colts, looking shaky too, these Dolphins (like Kansas City in the AFC West) steal a playoff spot, possibly even a division title, giving them at least one home playoff game in January. But which Miami team will appear after the bye? Time will tell.
Week 6 Games:
New York Giants at Chicago: Thursday night on NFL Network: The Giants are done in all senses except mathematically and emotionally. They can be spoilers from here on in. There is a BUT to this, that I will discuss in a moment. Chicago looks shaky on the road, never a good thing, but are still tough at home. With Green Bay (half-game back for now) and Minnesota back in the win column and Chicago still tied with shaky Detroit (and injured WR Calvin Johnson), the Bears must win games against weaker teams, especially at home. Lose to the Giants and that could cost them a playoff berth, similar to last year where one loss kept them out and put Minnesota in as a wild-card. I am picking a upset here on prime time because I know the Giants are better than 0-5 and they know (here is that BUT), a win here and a loss by Philadelphia and Dallas puts the Giants ONLY 1.5 games out of first and only 1 game out of a second place tie in the woeful NFC East (though they would not have any tiebreakers to the other teams for now). The Giants could have a 2012 Washington-like finish (7 straight wins after going 3-6 and winning the division on the final day) and have the QB to help do that, but that attempt must start here! Then again, no 0-5 team has ever rallied to make the playoffs...but if that is ever to happen, this is the team and they are in the right division to get it done.
UPSET SPECIAL 1!
New York Giants 23 Chicago 20
Detroit at Cleveland: I really thought Detroit could have finally ended their long losing streak in Wisconsin (versus the Packers) last week. If I had known on Wednesday that WR Calvin Johnson, Jr. would be a game-time scratch due to an injury, I would have picked Green Bay. Oh, well. The Packers sucked at home, but it was enough to win over a tooth-less Lions offense, even with Reggie Bush. Cleveland is hurting too, but is on fire right now. Even with Johnson, I am hesitant to take Detroit in outdoor games. Cleveland is a bitch to play on the road, even when the Browns totally suck (which is normal of late). Cleveland does not suck at this moment. Browns win at home. Close game if Johnson plays and does well, blowout Detroit loss if he sits again.
Cleveland 27 Detroit 20
Cincinnati at Buffalo: The Bengals have a nice team and are a threat in the AFC North, especially with the sudden decline of the Steelers and shaky start of the champion Ravens. But the Ravens may be stabilizing and Cleveland is really in the mix this year, so every win is vital if the Bengals want to make the playoffs again this year. Buffalo may be a contender in a year or two, but they don’t have enough now, even at home. With rookie QB EJ Manuel out for a bit with his knee injury, the Bills don’t have enough to stop the Bengals right now. Sorry.
Bengals 24 Bills 16
Tennessee at Seattle: Seattle is a power team, but they look totally mortal away from their rowdy fans at Qwest Field as we saw against the Colts and Panthers (really?). Unfortunately for the Titans, they have to go to Seattle this week. Seattle beat down their division rivals and defending NFC champion San Francisco here earlier and the Titans don’t have that many weapons. Seattle will be ready to kick ass after suffering their first loss last week at the Colts. If QB Jake Locker was playing for the Titans this week along with dangerous RB Chris Johnson, I might have picked an upset, but QB Ryan Fitzpatrick does little for me, remembering him from his Bills days. If Johnson has a big rushing day with a lot of carries to allow for major ball control and keep Seattle QB Russell Wilson and RB Marshawn Lynch on the sideline and off the scoreboard for 40 minutes-plus, a real quiet field and a upset is possible. But I just can’t see that, though the Titans are well prepared after nearly upsetting the undefeated Chiefs at home last week. Seahawks win, but NOT big.
Seahawks 31 Titans 23
Carolina at Minnesota: This game will be weird. Has Carolina turned a corner? NO. Unless Drew Brees gets hurt or worse, the Saints will win the NFC South. The other teams are playing for second or a high draft pick. Minnesota picked up recently released former Tampa Bay QB Josh Freeman while on bye last week, but he is not expected to play this week. RB Adrian Peterson is a beast anywhere, but especially so at home. I am not sure what Carolina is at this point so I just don’t see a win here. It may be time to trade QB Cam Newton for (a bunch of) 2014 draft picks, kind of like what Cleveland has been doing, and start over as far as finding a franchise QB in 2014. The Panthers have a lot of other problems since before Newton arrived as a Number 1 overall pick a few years ago. Those holes has been there that have not been really addressed. Newton has talent, but he needs new surroundings just like Freeman and Carolina needs to blow things up so they can fix all of their holes and not just the most visible one at QB . Too bad Carolina couldn’t get Freeman now. Maybe in 2014 free agency? This game can go either way. I take the home team simply because of a rested Peterson.
Vikings 28 Carolina 20
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay: Those of you who thought Philly was all that with Chip Kelly, you thought wrong! Despite the lack of D and all the turnovers. But the Eagles are tied for first place in the joke that is the NFC East, and has two division wins. With Dallas no lock to beat Washington at home after nearly upsetting the Broncos in a Game of the Year (if not DECADE) candidate last week, Philly must win this game against a winless Tampa squad who start life without recently released QB Josh Freeman. Tampa still has RB Doug Martin, but not much else, even with CB Darrelle Revis. Is this team worse than fellow Florida team Jacksonville? Maybe. Too bad they don’t play each other in 2013 so we would know for sure who has the edge for the first overall pick in 2014 (which may actually be the Giants OR the Steelers? Really?). Philly could be alone in first place alone Monday morning if they win…Philly won’t blow this…right? Well, Nick Foles may start over (yes..he got hurt again) Michael Vick this week.Yes, they will choke. Call it (having no defense at all) mentality.
Upset Special 2!
Tampa Bay 21 Philadelphia 17
New Orleans at New England at Cincinnati: New England finally may get their regular TE Rob Gronkowski back and Patriot fans are happy. Unfortunately, Drew Brees and the Saints are coming to town. Unlike other QBs who play home games in a dome, Brees can still ball in bad weather outdoors. Foxboro is a tough place to play and it looks like it will be wet this week. But these Saints have experience and maturity and their coach back. That counts for a lot. Sorry, Pats. This team is too shaky on both sides of the ball overall to stop the undefeated Saints. Some may think this is an upset, but not this year.
New Orleans 38 New England 30
St Louis at Houston: Houston is in trouble and dropping fast behind division leader Indianapolis. St Louis coming to town may help things, but not if QB Matt Schaub extends his new record of consecutive games throwing pick-sixes (presently at 4 games in a row). The Rams beat down the lowly Jags at home, but Houston on the road? Unlikely, unless Schaub throws multiple pick-sixes this week. Jeff Fisher knows the Texans well, but does not have the horses to pull this upset, right? Right????
Houston 31 St. Louis 23
Pittsburgh at the New York Jets: Pittsburgh is a surprising 0-4 and ready to circle the wagons and fight after a bye week. But this is a much better Jets squad than the train-wreck we saw in preseason. Geno Smith looks like the real deal and maybe the Jets did hit the QB lotto after all! This team is playing together and is reasonably healthy. The Steelers are not. Unless Smith and the Jets turn over the ball a lot in a (possibly) wet New Jersey, Steelers will be 0-5 with another close loss. Sorry.
New York Jets 25 Pittsburgh 20
Arizona at San Francisco: The 49ers are falling behind the rival Seahawks, but Seattle’s late loss to the Colts last week, who already beat the Niners in SF earlier will help later in potential tie-breaker scenarios. Still, SF needs wins to stay in wild-card contention, assuming they cannot catch Seattle in the division (down 1 game and in head-to-head, with the 2nd head-to-head game later at Candlestick Park). With the news that troubled LB Aldon Smith now has serious gun charges against him now (and a likely NFL suspension from all of his ongoing issues later this year or next) making it unlikely he and his 19.5 sacks from 2012 will be back in uniform this year at all, how will this team respond? Arizona (at the Rams for that matter) have hung tough and the Niners cannot look past either team (or anyone else for that matter). This is not a cross-country trip for the Cardinals, but they are not great outdoors, nor away from home. Niners should win at home, but it will be closer than one might think. I see more trouble for them as the season progresses, even if injured WRs Mario Manningham and especially Michael Crabtree do make it back by the stretch run.
San Francisco 27 Arizona 23
Green Bay at Baltimore: This will be a fun game to watch. Green Bay QB and former Super Bowl MVP Aaron Rodgers versus last year’s Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco. The two teams are shaky due to injury and players lost from last year. Green Bay especially will be hurting on D with LB Clay Matthews out at least 4 games with a broken thumb suffered against the Lions. Having their bye the first week of such is hurting them now, isn’t it? But then again, don’t count out a Packer team with a lot of injuries…as long as Rodgers is not one of them. Baltimore is hanging on in the AFC North, but Cincinnati and surprising Cleveland may make this tough all year for the champs to make the playoffs this year, even with Pittsburgh seemingly done at 0-4. The Packers started 1-3 before their early bye, but did beat division co-leader Detroit (without late scratch WR Calvin Johnson, Jr.) at Lambeau for a record 22nd time in a row last week, though GB was not very impressive for the most part. Baltimore has much better D than Detroit across the board and with Ray Rice doing better, the Ravens will be hard to beat at home on a possibly rainy (or at least waterlogged) M and T Bank Stadium field. I take Flacco here in a close one, but this game won’t be 51-48, though I could use the fantasy points such would generate.
Ravens 28 Packers 27
Jacksonville at Denver: Well, this is expected to be a big slaughter. The Broncos had an early line of a record-tying 28 point favorite. If the Jaguars want to avoid 0-16, this is probably not the game they will win. Dallas took the Broncos to the limit at home, forcing Manning’s first (and so far ONLY) INT and second turnover of the year. But a typical Romo mistake with 2 minutes to go inside of the Dallas 25 allowed the Colts to run the clock down and win with a FG at the gun. Denver’s D sucks, but when you outscore your opponents by 15-20 points ON AVERAGE every week and almost never turn over the ball, you can get away with it. The Jaguars do not have the weapons to beat Denver, especially at Invesco Field at Mile High where that thin air is the ultimate home field, especially in cold weather. Denver should win, but especially after that wild 51-48 war last week, I just don’t think the Broncos will cover a 4 TD (or more) spread. I won’t pick a Broncos straight up loss here because (unless Manning goes down early) I just don’t see it. But if I were a betting man and I had to take or give points…28 points is too much in the pros. I would take Jacksonville and the 4 TDs and see if the Broncos cover or more importantly, can hold the worst team in the NFL to LESS than 28 points while breaking 50 points for the second straight week.
Broncos 41 Jaguars 27
Oakland at Kansas City: This game is important! KC is 5-0, but has not really been challenged yet, except for Dallas and Tennessee, and KC escaped mostly due to their opponent’s errors and not because KC dominated either team on either side of the ball. The Raiders D is better than some think, and this offense is dangerous with Terrelle Pryor under center, with (preferably) or without always-injured RB Darren McFadden. The Chiefs still have several weeks before they must face the Broncos (2 meetings) and they will face Oakland again on the road later. If new Coach Andy Reid is looking past these Raiders (or San Diego or even Denver_, even at home, which is one of the toughest places to play in the entire league, that would be a BIG mistake. Oakland DID sweep KC last year and I will say it again, the Raiders have NOTHING TO LOSE! Beware a team who is in that position! Being undefeated gets harder with each win. No lucky breaks for KC this week! I take Oakland in a close one.
Raiders 28 Chiefs 24
Washington at Dallas: Sunday Night Football on NBC: Well, this is an interesting one. Regardless of records (and/or playoff implications), Washington versus Dallas is one of, if not THE biggest games on the NFL schedule for the ENTIRE season. Period. And we are blessed to get it TWICE a year, at minimum. Niners/Seahawks, Ravens/Steelers, Cowboys/Giants, Falcons/Saints and Patriots/Broncos (formerly Colts) are big games on the schedule too (and all but the last one we get twice a year too) TODAY, but no games are bigger over the years and decades CONSISTENLY than Redskins/Cowboys. Deal with it, everyone else.
Anyway, after Dallas went toe-to-toe for 58 minutes with Peyton and the (allegedly) unstoppable Broncos in Dallas last week, one has to wonder what Dallas has left for their BIGGEST rivals. Answer: a lot. Dallas will be favored…especially at home. BUT, the Redskins have weapons too, starting with a improving RGIII and a apparently recovered RB Alfred Morris. More importantly, the Redskins have had a week off and watched last week’s scorefest in Big D closely and have NO fear of playing in billion dollar AT&T Stadium. Washington’s defense and special teams has looked worse than Denver’s, BUT this is a defense that has scored 4 TDs already AND they are getting reinforcements back from league suspension AND they had that extra week to rest and prepare for a probably tired Tony Romo and that shredded defense. Bottom line: Can Dallas score 48 (or more) in back to back weeks if that is what it takes to beat the Skins and stay in first place? Not without forcing as many turnovers as they did in Week 1 against the Giants. RGIII is too good to let that happen unless others start fumbling.
Who wins? This game is for (a share of) first in the NFC East. Philadelphia is no sure thing to beat winless Tampa on the road (61 yard FG to win a few years ago bring back memories?), and Washington especially MUST WIN this division game. Dallas might be able to lose this game and still be okay for the division title, having won in divisional play already, but Washington cannot afford another division OR conference loss (1 and 3 respectively), even this early. It is a reasonably safe bet that there will be no wild-card playoff teams from THIS division. Dallas should and could win, but after last week (and last year and so on …), even Dallas fans may not believe Romo can win an important game ANYWHERE and this IS an important game. We already KNOW Griffin AND Washington backup QB Kirk Cousins can potentially get it done if needed. I have no faith in Romo, and neither should you until he proves otherwise SEVERAL TIMES IN A ROW, especially in the playoffs, if Dallas can ever get back there! Good luck with that. I take the Redskins by a $5 footlong Subway sub…lol. OT is possible. Blowout unlikely.
Redskins 38 Cowboys 35 (OT)
P.S. I will write a special separate blog with my thoughts on the Redskins name/Native Americans controversy and plan to post it by tomorrow or Saturday. Go check it out!
Monday Night Football on ESPN. Note the 830pm start time.
Indianapolis at San Diego: It is not a total surprise to see the Colts doing this well. Their trade for former number one pick RB Trent Richardson for their 2014 1st round pick was. That trade may be bigger now with free agent RB Ahmad Bradshaw out for the year with a neck injury. With Houston shaky and surprise Tennessee hurting with QB Jake Locker out for a while, the division may be the Colts’ to lose. San Diego QB Phillip Rivers is having a good year including in a win over NFC East co-leader Dallas, but losses to Houston on MNF in Week 1, Philadelphia and most recently to Oakland in the early hours of Monday (Eastern Time) has weakened their run. If the Chargers want to stay in any playoff race, they must win at home. However, the Colts have been on fire, even without much contribution from Richardson (yet). I have to take Andrew Luck on the road, who are only an upset loss to Miami away from being undefeated.
Colts 27 Chargers 21
Bonus picks:
I was 4-1 with last week’s bonus picks (right on both golf picks and on the Dodgers and Boston, but St. Louis beat Pittsburgh in Game 5 at home last night. It is Thursday morning as I write this!). Detroit plays Oakland in Game 5 of their ALDS tonight, so I will update my record Friday after that game ends. With that said, here are my bonus picks for this week (baseball picks will take at least a week to play out since the Championship Series won’t start until Saturday and Sunday and won’t be done before next Thursday, barring sweeps in either series, which is highly unlikely).
Baseball: Championship Series picks:
American League:
East champ and 1 seed Boston beats winner of ALDS Game 5 (Detroit or Oakland) in 6 games.
Disclamer: I may change this pick tomorrow or Saturday morning once we know who wins tonight.
National League:
West Champ Los Angeles beats Central champ and top seed St. Louis in 7 games.
Boxing:
Timothy Bradley, Jr. remains undefeated and retains his WBO welterweight title by split decision over Juan Manuel Marquez Saturday night in Las Vegas on PPV.
I do predict some controversy in Las Vegas, but I don’t think a judge will try to screw Bradley on the scorecard in this fight like we have seen in big fights in Vegas recently, including Bradley’s upset title win over Manny Pacquiao last year, where the judges clearly screwed Pacquiao even though unbiased observers felt Bradley had NOT done enough to win the fight (like a knockout or real close to one).
Think my picks suck? Send me a reply and tell me why! Good luck to everyone.
NFL picks: 39-37 after 5 weeks; 5-2 on bonus picks; Total 44-39 overall (as of October 10th). I told you my picks would get better.
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