My picks for the 2014 NFL Wild-Card Playoff Games Happy New Year!

    These are my picks for the NFL wild-card playoffs. Kept it simple. Enjoy and Happy New Year!

 

NFL Wildcard playoffs:

Saturday:

Kansas City at Indianapolis: Depending on other results, this game is probably going to be the only indoor game in the entire playoffs (all of the other teams are outdoor teams or are a six seed (New Orleans), hence they will not host a playoff game, no matter what). The Chiefs rested almost all of their best players in a meaningless (for them) game at San Diego, yet nearly beat the Chargers who played everyone (should have, but official error prevented the chance for that!) anyway. The Chiefs almost always win close games (this year), last week notwithstanding. They played the Colts two weeks ago at home and the Colts won. What makes the rematch any different? I think playing indoors and not having weather as a factor will make a difference. The Colts have started out real slow (at home) lately, which is a concern, though they did not the last two weeks. I sense the Chiefs didn’t try that hard then since they knew what seed they were locked in and the Colts were too, though if the Patriots had lost last week, this game would have been in snowy southern New England instead. I sense the Chiefs have a few new plays to use for this game. More importantly, the considerably better running game of the Chiefs will be a factor. Ball control is key.

    The longer the Colts offense and QB Andrew Luck is on the sideline, the better it is for the Chiefs. While the Chiefs defense is strong, it still isn’t full strength with the injuries they suffered down the stretch. The Colts offense can be explosive, but it is not all the time and the defense is middle-of-the road, at best. KC QB Alex Smith does have more playoff experience than Luck, and so does coach Andy Reid. Colts coach Chuck Pagano is good, but that lack of experience versus Reid, plus the weak running game will make the difference. The best way to beat the Chiefs is to have the ball a lot and score a lot. I don’t think the Colts will have enough chances to do so, nor will actually convert all of the chances they will get. I know the Colts DID beat Denver, KC, Seattle and SF, but those wins were either at home or in games that meant nothing. The blowout losses to Arizona and Cincinnati that really mattered (road) and St. Louis (home) and blowing one at home to Miami in Week 2 and at SD later on MNF and barely beating Oakland on Opening Day says a lot too. Inconsistent. The Colts crushed the Jaguars twice. So? So did KC, Oakland and other teams. The Colts won an easy division with no real competition, but blew a top 2 seed by losing to teams they should (or could) have beat. This team is not ready for the big playoff run….yet. Baltimore showed it last year in Charm City and the Chiefs will do it in Indy this Saturday. Chiefs win.

Kansas City 30 Indianapolis 24

New Orleans at Philadelphia: The Saints are a dangerous team. But they are far less dangerous on the road. The franchise has NEVER won a road playoff game, the classic OH NO! of dome teams. Snow may not factor in this game despite this week’s winter storm, but it WILL be cold and probably kind of icy (not knowing if the field has heaters under it or not). The Saints suck on the road, but QB Drew Brees does have experience in the cold, having played at Purdue. But that was a while ago. How his teammates react to such is another matter. The Eagles has big advantages, but a field where both teams can throw and run a lot may work against the home team. The defense, while better than early in the year will have issues stopping the dangerous Brees and his passing game. But then, almost everyone does. Eagles QB Nick Foles has been great this year, but how will he handle his first playoff game? If he gets hurt or is ineffective, having experienced QB Michael Vick on the bench can help, but we all know his injury and passing accuracy concerns. I am not convinced this will be the high-scoring game the experts predict, especially in this cold, but it might. Though I think it will be close, I will take the Saints in an upset.

   The Eagles are better served if the score is low and they can run RB LeSean McCoy A LOT and keep Brees off the field. But I don’t think that this defense can keep the Saints off the scoreboard, no matter how much (or little) time the experienced Saints offense is on the field. Turnovers, special teams and field position will be key and there won’t be many field goal attempts, unless they are at point-blank (35 yards or less) range. To beat the Saints, you need touchdowns, and without major snow on the field to slow down the Saints, I just don’t think this Eagles defense gets it done. The higher the score gets, the more it favors the Saints. Saints end their playoff road losing streak in a dogfight.

New Orleans 38 Philadelphia 34

Sunday:

San Diego at Cincinnati: The Chargers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, but they got lucky at KC last week, just to get in the playoffs. Now, the warm-weather West Coast team goes to cold (and probably snowy and/or (freezing) rainy) Cincinnati for a wild card game. The Bengals are a good all-around team with weapons and playmakers on both sides of the ball. NOW, we will see how much losing DT Geno Atkins for the season (in the Miami MNF OT loss) will really affect them. San Diego QB Phillip Rivers is good on the road, and in the cold in his career, but the Chargers are less experienced in the playoffs. However, the Bengals, though this is their third straight playoff appearance, have been one-and-done in their last 7 playoff appearances, some of which were at home. The Bengals are true beasts at home, being 8-0 and scoring a lot more than they do on the road, but QB Andy Dalton can be erratic (less so at home) and having 2 playoff losses already gives me pause. Something has to give. I do think Dalton will be a nice QB for his career, but I am seeing how hot and desperate the Chargers are. Plus, I do think the Chargers have a better chance of going into Denver and beating the Broncos (who they have already faced twice) than the Bengals. I am picking another upset with the Chargers.

San Diego 28 Cincinnati 27

San Francisco at Green Bay: The weather in Green Bay will almost surely be the coldest of these four games. This game was scheduled last on the TV schedule for a reason. San Francisco beat Green Bay in the early part of the season….at Candlestick Park. That was then. This is now. The mystique of Lambeau Field in the playoffs has been historic, though lately, since the pre-prison Michael Vick and the Atlanta Falcons upset the Packers there around a decade ago (wow how times flies!), the home field has not helped Green Bay. The weather conditions for this game will be as bad or worse than most of those of those most recent playoff games. Getting all-world Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers back is huge. This team is so much better and dangerous with him, it is hard to pick against them.

     BUT, there are other factors. The Packers have a lot of injuries on both sides of the field (LB Clay Matthews (thumb, again) being a big one), but the Packers overcame more (season-ending) injuries that I have ever seen one team take in one year (maybe 2!) on their way to a Super Bowl win a few years ago. So that is one thing. The other thing is the opponent. These are not your father’s (or your mother’s) San Francisco 49ers. They have an awesome all-around defense, who is healthy tough and dangerous. They have a return game. They have a nice kicker. They also have a tough offense that is just getting (nearly) totally healthy now, fresh off a Super Bowl appearance (and near win) last year. But the defending NFC champs also has is QB Colin Kaepernick. He is in a lot of ways similar to that younger Vick who ripped away the mystique of Lambeau in January. He has a great passing arm (big difference is Vick is left-handed) and is accurate. He is confident like Vick. But the biggest differences between those Falcons and these Niners are that he has more weapons around him (RB Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter, WR Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree and all-world (most of the time….ugh!) TE Vernon Davis (from Maryland!!!)) than Vick did, and Colin K may be more accurate and might be an even more dangerous (due to better control more than greater speed) runner than Vick.

   Vick ran (and still does some) because he knew If no one was open, he could (then) outrun and juke around every defender on that field. He was more of a run-first, pass second QB. Colin K is a pass first QB, who happens to have better running ability than most running backs and running QBs. The Niners dual threat is deadly because the QB has too many weapons without having to run, but if he does….you are done. Vick could not do that in Atlanta (nor could he in Philly either). And THAT combo versus a banged up and not the fastest Green Bay defense will be deadly. Sorry, Green Bay, this will be close, but I have to take my fraternity brother Colin K. and the Niners in a upset.

San Francisco 31 Green Bay 28 (OT)

Bonus picks: Since the bowl games are still ongoing until Monday's national title game, I will total up those picks before I pick next weeks NFL divisional playoffs. Hence, the bonus pick total is not updated yet. I did go 13-3 in Week 17 in the NFL, missing only Washington, Oakland and Baltimore. That, and winning my seventh fantasy football championship last Sunday night  was a nice way to finish the 2013 regular season. Going 1-2 in championship finals is better than 0-3 any day! Let's see how I do in the playoffs!


Think my picks suck? Send me a reply and tell me why! Good luck to everyone.
NFL picks: 135-118-1 after 17 weeks; 35-28 on bonus picks; Total: 170-146-1 overall (as of January 4, 2014).