NFL 2016 NFL season picks: Week One: September 9-12, 2016

Week One: September 9-12, 2016

Thursday Night Football: Opening Game on NBC:

Carolina at Denver: It is rare for the teams that face each other in the Super Bowl to face each other in the season after they meet in the championship game. It is rarer (but it has happened) for the two teams to face each other in the next Super Bowl…but it is just as rare for the teams to play each other in the first game of the year, which is (normally) a home showcase for the defending champs. But here we are. Carolina returns mostly intact from last year’s NFC Championship team, except for the surprise release of outspoken CB Josh Norman (signed almost immediately by Washington) and the return of WR Kelvin Benjamin (lost in preseason for the year last year). Denver…not so much. Besides the not-unexpected retirement of future Hall of Fame QB Peyton Manning, you had the normal group of players leaving for big money with other teams. What was surprising that not that young former starter Brock Osweiler left for a big contract with Houston instead of being the almost-sure incumbent with the champs, but that the Broncos didn’t try hard to keep him, knowing the QB free agent market was weak and Manning was gone. So young backup Trevor Siemian (who?) is the starter this year. This could turn out to be a genius move or…the alternative.

Who wins? Carolina wants revenge…Denver needs a good start at home. Denver still most of their great defense as well as their shaky offensive line and good runners and receivers, but knowing what Denver has lost and they are trying to trade some players, like CB Aqib Talib and HB Ronnie Hillman…hmmm. These are things that you don’t want to see so early, especially a defending champ. Carolina’s defense is still good without Norman, but the return of a health Benjamin gives QB Cam Newton another weapon and one he didn’t have last year. Defense wins championships as the Broncos proved in the Super Bowl, but you need offense too. I am not convinced Denver will be ready on offense in Week 1. I am taking the Panthers.

Carolina 24 Denver 17

Sunday’s Games: September, 11, 2016

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: This will be a scoring fest. The Buccaneers are getting better especially on offense. Second year QB Jameis Winston could be real good and has weapons around him. The same thing could be said for Atlanta with their own very good QB in Matt Ryan. But other than young RB Devonta Freeman, I am not sold on WR Julio Jones and the other offensive weapons staying healthy AND producing big every week. Plus Atlanta’s defense is not that inspiring.

Who wins? The team that makes the fewest errors. I do think this will be a sleeper for the highest (combined) scoring game of the week, but you never know. I just having a feeling that Tampa will pull this out....somehow. Tampa wins.

Tampa Bay 41 Atlanta 38 (OT)

Minnesota at Tennessee: Both teams have a lot of questions. But Minnesota losing QB Teddy Bridgewater for at least this year is huge. True, the trade for QB Sam Bradford who will have to be starter eventually, if not this Sunday (and it won't be for the backup Shawn Hill will start Week 1), but the steep price tag..is it worth it for this year, much less 2017? Bradford, who is not known for being super-healthy either but has talent, may be worth it if he stays healthy…especially if Bridgewater is not ready to return in the early part of 2017. Still, Minnesota still has young wide-outs and the dangerous RB Adrian Peterson in the backfield, who can be as valuable at Bridgewater IF he stays healthy and productive. The Titans continue to rebuild, but they have weapons around young QB Marcus Mariota, as long as he also stays healthy. The additions of RB DeMarco Murray and high draft pick Derrick Henry may give this team the best running 1-2 punch in football, plus Mariota who is rather mobile too. If the defense can do well and keep the Titans in games so the running banks can grind defenses down…upsets can happen and the Titans may make a lot of noise in a still-shaky AFC South.

Who wins? Is Peterson better than Murray and Henry combined? Perhaps. The emotional advantage is with the Vikings knowing they open their new home in Week 2 against Green Bay and knowing a win here will be huge if they also beat Green Bay. But the Titans knows they are a sleeper team and winning the AFC South is not a impossibility with a very shaky Texans (and Colts team) in their division along with fellow sleeper Jacksonville who seems to be at a similar level as the Titans as of now. The winner could be on their way to a big year...maybe not. But I think the Vikings will be looking ahead to the home opener and has too much distraction as to their quarterback situation and the Titans will take advantage with time of possession. Titans win.

Tennessee 28 Minnesota 23

Cleveland at Philadelphia: Another year…another mess of a Cleveland Browns team.  Is new starter Robert Griffin III the answer at QB? If he is, we will not know after week 1. Cleveland doesn’t have a lot, but they have a little bit and the return of WR Josh Gordon in the fifth game (suspension and more) could help new coach Hue Jackson do something…if he Gordon stays off the drugs and Griffin can produce and stay healthy. The Eagles spent a lot to get the 2nd overall pick to draft QB Carson Wentz and also get backup Chase Daniel when they still had Bradford on a big 2 year deal. They may have hit a mini-lotto by trading away Bradford to QB-needy Minnesota and getting their 2017 1st round pick back. If Wentz has a rookie year anywhere close to what Griffin III did for Washington 4 years ago (Rookie of the Year, division title), the Eagles could be back under fellow rookie coach and former player Scott Pederson. Philly needs to win this one. Both teams do.

Who wins? I don’t know. The rookie QB versus the good, but injury prone QB? Toss up. But Cleveland’s luck as a team has been worse than the Eagles. But if Wentz is not as recovered from his preseason rib injuries as the team thinks he is…not good, and the backup in Daniel is talented on paper, but not proven either. This is a pick ‘em game, but I am taking Cleveland to steal one because Griffin does know how to play and hopefully win in Philly. Experience is the difference here, but not by much.

Cleveland 30 Philadelphia 27 (OT)

Cincinnati at New York Jets: The Bengals are a tough team that makes the playoffs, but can’t get past one-and-done. The Jets are shaky too, but the AFC East may be more wide open with the issues of the Patriots (at least for September) but a quick start, especially if the other AFC East teams struggle…could coach Todd Bowles sneak the Jets to the playoffs? Is Bengals QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green healthy? If not, the Bengals may not have to worry about a sixth straight playoff appearance and potential choke. This game will be ugly…but wait until next week.

Who wins? The Bengals can win in the regular season, but the constant underachieving and the constant injuries give me no faith in this team in 2016. Show me something good….or better than the same record of the last 5 years. The Jets are on their way back and have their main weapons back, but can they stay healthy and can starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick do more to help the Jets more wins? No idea, but I am taking the Jets at home in New Jersey on an emotional day in the NY/NJ area. Keeping it real.

New York Jets 30 Cincinnati 24

San Diego at Kansas City: This AFC West battle will be a war…of attrition perhaps? San Diego QB Phillip Rivers is a top QB. KC QB Alex Smith is good and steady too. After that…who knows? The running game is shaky on both sides with some players out for the year, some returning after a major injury. Will San Diego RB Melvin Gordon actually score a TD? Will KC RB Jamaal Charles even play? I just don’t know how this will go, but if Denver loses on Thursday night, the winner of this team may lead the AFC West and that can mean everything later.

Who wins? KC coach Andy Reid is experienced and Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to play or win, period. Home field may carry the day, if Reid doesn’t make mistakes in calling plays and the supporting cast of San Diego doesn’t help Rivers. I have to take experience and home field in this one, especially if Charles DOESN’T play. Remember last year? Right. Chiefs win.

Kansas City 27 San Diego 23

Buffalo at Baltimore: This is a game with two teams with a lot to prove. Can Buffalo coach Rex Ryan, with his twin brother Rob by his side get Buffalo back to relevance, especially with the Patriots’ having issues at least in the short term? Can Baltimore, returning QB Joe Flacco and their injured stars come back and be a factor in the AFC North again? Good question. The game may show some answers, but likely not really…in week 1.

Who wins? Baltimore is tough at home….but have experience and can do damage especially on offense. I know that Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor is dangerous, but where is the supporting cast? Defense? Plus Ryan can be shaky as a coach. Then the Bills must travel to Jersey to face the Jets on a short week…not good. I am taking the Ravens at home.

Baltimore 27 Buffalo 21

Chicago at Houston: This game will be….oh my.  I am not liking what I am seeing. The Bears don’t look like they are any different, never mind better than last year. True, they get to have last year’s top pick WR Kevin White on the field after injury cost him last year. But you still have QB Jay Cutler. Oh no. If he plays well….who knows? If not…we all know. Houston finally addressed their ugly QB situation by plucking free agent QB Brock Osweiler from Denver. Can he get the Houston offense going and get lots of passes to WR DeAndre Hopkins and friends? IF he does, the Texans could be great if their defense can get it done, especially with the Colts expected to rebound from an injury-plagued 2015. We will see a lot in week 1 for this is a winnable game at home…right?

Who wins? The Bears could go in and win this one….but Houston (forget last year’s playoff game) is tough on defense and at home. And they have a QB and DE J.J. Watt and J. Clowney are both playing…we think. I think Houston pulls this out. But it won’t be easy.

Houston 28 Chicago 20

Green Bay at Jacksonville: Jacksonville has a lot of young pieces both on offense and defense and they are at home. Good…but…they face Green Bay…and QB Aaron Rodgers…and he gets favorite target WR Jordy Nelson (knee, missed all of 2015) back. Oh boy…I smell trouble.

Who wins? Jacksonville could get a major upset if they win here. But an experienced Packers squad with everyone at full strength is hard to beat. Could they be looking ahead to the road game at Minnesota in week 2? I doubt it, especially not now.  Sorry, Jags…Green Bay is not going there. Packers win.

Green Bay 34 Jacksonville 23

Miami at Seattle: The Dolphins have weapons and could be dangerous this year, adding former Houston RB Arian Foster to lead the run game and take pressure of the passing game. But…that defense…I don’t know. I am not seeing it. Now they start the year in Seattle? You really think that defense can stop Seattle QB Russell Wilson and this offense, even if RB Thomas Rawls and the new-look running game and TE Jimmy Graham is not full strength? Do you really think the Miami offense with QB Ryan Tannehill can beat the Legion of the Boom Seattle secondary? And the 12th Man? Right.

Who wins? Miami is a southern version of Cincinnati with more excuses, hype and fewer wins (in recent years).  I see no way they can beat up the Seattle defense without a perfect game. And trust me, teams virtually never have a perfect game in Week 1. I am taking Seattle.

Seattle 30 Miami 20

New York Giants at Dallas: Again? The schedule-maker loves setting this up to start the year. But it is not on SNF this time. You know the story in Dallas. Now we find out if rookie QB Dak Prescott has real game and may be the future answer for injured starter Tony Romo. Now we find out if the Giants with a new coach and a lot of new and expensive defensive pieces and old pro (and the only Manning playing now) QB Eli Manning and WR Victor Cruz and friends can help WR Odell Beckham, Jr. bring Big Blue back to relevance…as a team. Hmmmmm.

Who wins? Dallas is starting a rookie at RB and QB for the first time in decades. They still have that offensive line, but that defense….not so good with injuries and suspensions galore. And is WR Dez Bryant heathy or not? If the Giants can’t win this time (and they don’t do dumb bleep in crunch time to give the game away)…what excuses do you have this time? I likely will regret this, but I am taking the Giants. Again. Damn.

New York Giants 30 Dallas 27 (OT)

Detroit at Indianapolis:  Detroit has reeled with the sudden retirement of WR Calvin Johnson…but life and football goes on. The Lions have tried to replenish their offense to give QB Matthew Stafford some reliable weapons and a defense that still looks real weak. The Colts look happier with franchise QB Andrew Luck re-signed and back from his injuries of 2015. But is the rest of the roster any better? I don’t think so. In a weak AFC South, if Luck plays well and is able to play the whole season, the Colts could be back in the playoffs…big IF. This is a good way to start…maybe.

Who wins? Detroit has some pieces and adding WR Anquan Boldin as a free agent could help a little….but that defense is still not good. And Luck is real good and picking his way through bad defenses. A healthy Luck with a little help can beat a lot of teams…including this one..at home. Colts win.

Indianapolis 34 Detroit 23

Oakland at New Orleans: The Saints are a proud franchise and this team is a different team when they play at home, especially with future Hall of Fame (and re-signed) QB Drew Brees under center. Will he be the modern-day George Blanda? We will not know for a few years yet, but I would not bet against it. And remember, he is far from the biggest or most mobile QBs around. In fact he is one of the smallest. But he is one of the smartest and the best at what he does, period. He has offensive weapons too. But that defense...ugh. Look, teams can win some games with a weak defense, especially in the pass-happy NFL of 2016. But not here. The Raiders are rising from the ashes fast, and they have the young core on offense AND defense to end the long playoff and outright winning season droughts...and maybe fight for a shot at Super Bowl LI? That is what many think...and Week 1 won't prove such one way or the other....but this could be ugly.

Who wins? The Saints with Brees WILL get yards...and should get some points. But the Raiders have the offensive weapons to match and a better line to protect Pro Bowl QB Derek Carr. They also have a better defense, led by 2 position (first time ever voted as such for two positions in the same year!) All-Pro DE/LB Khalil Mack. And he has a LOT of help. The Raiders will have too much to be stopped and the defense will make sure the Saints offense will not keep up on the scoreboard. Oakland wins in a mini-shootout.

Oakland 40 New Orleans 31

Sunday Night Football on NBC:

New England at Arizona: This game is a big one and could be a Super Bowl preview, perhaps? I don’t think so. But now we get to see the future of the Patriots without QB Tom Brady, suspended (finally!) for the first four games for Deflategate (that should have happened last year at this time). Unfortunately, all-world TE Rob Gronkowski (hamstring) is out, too. Temporary starter QB Jimmy Garrapollo seems to have game, but can he lead the Patriots to wins against a tough schedule? Good luck with that. Arizona returns most of their team from last year and get re-signed FS Tyronn Mathieu back as well. This will be fun to watch in prime-time. Well, not as much as it seemed a few months ago when the schedule was released.

Who wins? If this game was in New England, I would like their chances. (not so much now!) But it is not. And Arizona has weapons led by QB Carson Palmer and future Hall of Fame WR Larry Fitzgerald and a tough defense. This would be a test with Brady and Gronk playing, which is why the schedule makers put this game here. Too bad Brady and Gronk will have to watch this game and more (in Brady's case for sure) from their couch. This will be wild. I am taking Arizona.

Arizona 30 New England 14

Monday Night Football: Opening Doubleheader on ESPN: September 12, 2016

Pittsburgh at Washington: The Steelers are already hurting with injuries, but this is a team, a coach in Mike Tomlin (NUPE!) and a franchise who even this Raiders fan has to admit is tough as hell and who is never a easy out..ever. The Redskins are looking dangerous, but though RGIII is gone, QB Kirk Cousins has to prove 2015 wasn’t a fluke to get his big payday (though the money he is getting under the franchise tag for 2016 says otherwise, right). This team is similar to last year, but with a couple of losses beside Griffin III (RB Alfred Morris leaves for Dallas as a free agent, DE Junior Gallette on season IR AGAIN) and one big unexpected gain (signing Carolina castoff CB Josh Norman) similar to how they got WR DeSean Jackson a few years ago. Can these guys defend their surprise NFC East title? Maybe. This will be tough way to start on that course…especially with the Romo-less Cowboys coming into town next Sunday. On a short week. Ouch.

Who wins? You can never count out Pittsburgh. But this is a test that Washington needs to have to get going before they face a tough division schedule, injuries notwithstanding. All I can say is if Cousins doesn’t produce or worse, gets hurt….remember who the backup QBs are. And I hope that defense is better than last year. I am taking the Redskins…but with a big amount skepticism. Show me you are real and not just lucky. Oh, and that DC traffic for these two weeks…and the Nationals rolling? Damn.

Washington 31 Pittsburgh 28 (OT).

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco: It is nice to type "Los Angeles Rams" again. Isn't it cool? Unfortunately, these Niners are a lot weaker than the one that was here when the Rams franchise left for St. Louis nearly 20 years ago and ultimately won the franchise's only Super Bowl. The drama around current backup Niners QB Colin Kaepernick is beside the point. We will see plenty of such long before this game comes up (for once, the schedule makers got it right). Now, the game. The Rams have weapons, the Niners less so. Let's be real, most of the East Coast will be asleep for most of this (with luck, I won't be). This will almost surely not be the best played game of this week. So be it. It is NFL football for real...so real fans will deal with it.

Who wins? The Rams for once has most of the factors on their side, which hasn't happened much since these teams were facing each other twice a year in the 1990s (yes, the move to St. Louis did NOT move them from the NFC West and they still played each other twice a year...I merely point out how different the directions of the franchises were before the Rams moved east). At least for this game, the Rams, who also have better coaching...for now...will take advantage. Rams win.

Los Angeles 30 San Francisco 20


Bonus picks: WWE Backlash results from Richmond:

WWE World Champion Dean Ambrose retains against A.J. Styles
Dolph Ziggler beats The Miz by disqulification (probably due to intereference by the Miz's wife, former Womens champion Maryse), but Miz retains the Intercontinental title
Randy Orton beats Bray Wyatt with a surprise RKO, but will get beat down afterwards

Smackdown Tag Team Championship Tournament:
    The Usos beat The Hype Bros (second chance semifinal after American Alpha is out due to injury caused by a Usos attack losing to Alpha in one semifinal) and advance to the final, but are upset by the other finalists, Rhyno and Heath Slater to win the new tag team titles and a Smackdown Live! WWE contract for Slater (a loss means no contract for Slater).

Smackdown Womens Championship Six-Pack Challenge:
    All six ladies will have their moments, but NXT to Smackdown draftees Carmella and Alexa Bliss and former Womens champion Natayla will not factor in the final decision. Naomi and former Womens champion Nikki Bella (returning from January neck surgery) will beat each other down, but Becky Lynch will steal the pin or submission win and become the first Smackdown Womens Champion (and be the last of the former NXT "Four Horsewomen" to win a Womens (NXT or WWE-level) championship).