NFL Picks Week Three: September 22-26, 2017:

Last week's picks: 8-8

Season: 16-16, 4-2 on bonus picks

Fantasy football people: Time to get serious! Please note that bye weeks begin next week!With all of the injuries going around, bye weeks become more important than ever!

Thursday Night Football on CBS/NFL Network: Houston at New England:

    Houston has a rare opportunity to really kick the Patriots while they are down tonight. Starting QB Tom Brady is out for another week and a half (suspension) and current starter Jimmy Garrapolo is hurt (shoulder) and can’t go on a short week. Hence, they must start rookie QB Jacoby Brissett  instead against a dangerous Houston defense. However, the New England defense is not that bad and the Houston offense under new starter Brock Osweiler is still trying to find itself, despite having weapons at WR. By midseason, barring injury, the offense may be in good form, but even that is not equal to this team’s defense. But the Patriots are experienced and steady. But surely, the Pats cannot win with a third-string rookie QB, even at home. Right?

Who wins?  It is too early to expect New England to steal this one under these circumstances. But Houston is mostly just some defenders and little else right now, at least until Osweiler, Hopkins and the rest of the offense can do better. That could be a while.  I hate to do it…but the Patriots have more NOW, especially with Gronkowski playing this week. Houston has a similar weapon in Hopkins..but It is easier to limit a WR than to stop a TE of Gronk’s size, let alone talent. Patriots win…barely.

New England 24 Houston 21

Sunday’s games:

Arizona at Buffalo: The Cardinals look like they are trying to right the ship after letting the Brady AND Gronk-less Pats steal the opener in the desert. Buffalo…not so much.  Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor can be a dangerous dual-threat QB, but between injuries, lack of playmaking on both sides of the ball and shaky coaching from Rex Ryan, this team is a mess. And they have fairly bad luck too. I don’t think that bodes well here, even knowing Arizona does not do well outdoors…and on the East Coast. If this game was in November or December…this would be a different story.

Who wins? Arizona has balance. Arizona has coaches. Arizona has healthy playmakers on both sides of the ball. Buffalo does not. The Bills do not have enough to overcome all of that, even at home. Sorry. Arizona wins.

Arizona 34 Buffalo 20

Cleveland at Miami: The Browns cannot catch a break. First RG III goes down with injury…again. Then new starter QB Josh McCown gets hurt when they had a big lead on Baltimore and they lose the game as well. Now, Cleveland must not only start rookie QB Cody Kessler against Miami, but the team ALSO loses top pick Corey Coleman (broken hand), last year’s top pick OL Cameron Ervin (bruised lung) AND PK Patrick Murray (knee=IR) as well. Damn. It is hard for a team to lose so many players so early in the season, but of course, Cleveland finds a way to have bad enough luck to do it.  It is too early to talk 0-16…but wow. Miami, meanwhile just looks…bad. And they have injury woes too. With starting C Mike Pouncey (hip) and RB Arian Foster (groin) out and WR Davante Parker possibly out too, this is not going to be a high-scoring affair. At least it won’t be cold in Miami.

 Who wins? Whomever has players left at the end of the game…lol. Seriously, at least Miami has a viable QB in Ryan Tannehill to run things. If he goes down…not good. Let’s just pray that both teams survive this game without losing anyone else. I have to take the home team.  Miami can’t score, but Cleveland is even worse, and may well throw a pick-six or two, which will be enough to win this bad game.

Miami 20 Cleveland 9

New York Jets at Kansas City: KC is tough at home. Don’t I always say that? But it is true. Even without great RB Jamaal Charles (knee) again this week, these Chiefs are tough to handle. But this is not a defensive power team either with the injuries they are trying to weather. But so are the Jets. This game could well decide a wild-card playoff spot later if these teams are fighting for such at the end of the year. If you want a rugged, hard hitting game with not a lot of flash, THIS is your game.

Who wins? Tough call. Both teams are rugged, but it seems this will be a matter of attrition and who makes the fewest errors. Considering the Jets have already blown a game they should have won, and the Chiefs held on to steal a OT thriller over a game Chargers team in Week 1 AND the game is in KC….no brainer, I am taking the Chiefs.

Kansas City 27 New York Jets 24 (OT)

Minnesota at Carolina: Minnesota upset Green Bay! Great way to go to 2-0 and christen their new home. But they lost all-world (not this year) RB Adrian Peterson as well and OT Matt Kahlil to IR as well, though only Peterson, as of now, has a chance of returning this year. Now you ask them to go to a rather…distracted North Carolina to face the NFC champs? Damn that is not good. Minnesota has lots of experience with playing without Peterson, but this is Carolina..at full strength. What chance does the Vikings have as long as Carolina QB Cam Newton is upright? Unless he has the worst game of his life…I am thinking…none. This game could be ugly, and considering what is going on outside the stadium in Charlotte and in this state…..we cannot expect anything else.

Who wins? Minnesota’s replacements for Peterson at least have experience in this role and can help. Carolina’s starting RB Jonathan Stewart is out too. So expect an air show here. While new Vikings QB Sam Bradford does have talent, he is no Newton, and he doesn’t have enough to stop the champs in Charlotte, unless the distractions outside the stadium and the hangover of the opening loss at Denver causes enough errors for the Vikings defense to steal another win that will be huge for NFC playoff seeding later, IF the Vikings can make it to the end. With a shaky Green Bay facing surprisingly offensive Detroit in their home opener, the Vikings could have a big lead on the rest of the NFC North and over TWO NFC powers if they win. I don’t see the Panthers overlooking this game, but they have been known to play down to their opponents at times, and a badly wounded Vikings team is a perfect trap game situation. I am taking Minnesota in a BIG upset to go to 3-0 (WTF????).

Minnesota 30 Carolina 27 (OT)

Baltimore at Jacksonville: Baltimore’s season looked FUBAR when they fell behind 20-0 against Cleveland. But an injury to then-starter McCown, a VERY rare blocked PAT run back by the Ravens special teams for (their first) 2 points (of the game) and some luck helped Baltimore come back and win anyway. So they are 2-0 when they should have been maybe 0-2. The Jaguars was a trendy pick to rise up and steal an AFC playoff spot. But unfortunately, though they are better, a tough home loss to GB has them in a hole as usual. This is a must win for these young Jags, but can they find a way to beat a veteran Ravens squad with a lot to prove and a rare chance to gain ground on the AFC North, especially if the 2-0 Steelers ultimately lose the “Battle of Pennsylvania” to surprise 2-0 Philadelphia on MNF?

Who wins? Even if injured Jags RB Chris Ivory returns this week, I don’t think he is enough to help win this game. Baltimore has to start faster…but if they don’t and the Jags take advantage….upset happens. But I don’t see that happening with veteran QB Joe Flacco leading these Ravens. Experience matters and it all favors the road team. I am taking Baltimore this week…but you know I won’t next week..lol.

Baltimore 29 Jacksonville 20

Detroit at Green Bay: Oh no, Detroit. Good news: You play in Green Bay in September and not December for once. Bad news: Green Bay is pissed off after losing at Minnesota’s new stadium opening on SNF AFTER the Vikings lose Peterson in the game (who had done nothing good) and was already without Bridgewater. Not good. Detroit is different, and maybe more dangerous overall without the retired Calvin Johnson. But Detroit never wins in Green Bay in recent memory.  Detroit DID end their 24 game losing streak to this team in Wisconsin last fall. Is this Detroit team that much better than this Green Bay team? NO. But the struggles of the Pack and future HOF QB Aaron Rodgers both last year and now into 2016 is too big to ignore. Detroit believes they can win here now. And that spells trouble for the road-weary Packers in their home opener.

Who wins? Unless Rodgers and friends (remember WR Jordy Nelson is playing, where he was on IR (knee) all of last year) suddenly revert back to 2014 form and get efficient, I see struggle. Detroit QB Matthew Stafford can match Rodgers in passing yards, even with inferior pass-catchers and running backs. The gap may be smaller this time if Green Bay cannot score or control the clock on offense. That will be easier with Detroit’s linebackers now thin, but Detroit has a puncher’s chance. With GB not sharp…one punch is all it takes to fell the champ. Ask the Vikings about that. I am taking Detroit to upset GB before they go on their way too early (but maybe timely this year) bye week.

Detroit 23 Green Bay 22

Denver at Cincinnati: Denver is another team who is lucky to be 2-0. But doing it at home helps. Now they must win on the road, first doing so at the Bengals home opener. The beat up Bengals have to be a stern test for the young Broncos QB Trevor Simien and friends. Losing DE DeMarcus Ware (broken arm) for a while won’t help. The Bengals have not had their all-world TE Tyler Eifert (ankle) yet this year and could use him now. But Bengals QB Andy Dalton knows how to improvise…but the Super Bowl champ’s defense still has sharp teeth.  But can the Broncos less than stellar offense score enough to win the day, especially against a rugged Bengals defense who is pissed after another tough loss at Pittsburgh?

Who wins? The champs get a reality check on the road. The Bengals are a playoff team…and they have a better QB and they won’t back down to Denver. I think Denver has been charmed. Bengals, not so much. I have to take the home team here. Sorry. Bengals win.

Cincinnati 26 Denver 24

San Diego at Indianapolis: This will be a wild game. San Diego lost a heartbreaker at KC, then rallied to steal a win against the Jags. But they also lost RB Danny Woodhead AND WR Keenan Allen (again) for the year. Not good. But as long as QB Phillip Rivers is upright, the Chargers are tough with no-names on offense with him. The Colts have struggled with QB Andrew Luck and it doesn’t get better. I just watched on NFL Network’s NFL Total Access, an analyst projected that the Colts may only go 4-12 WITH Luck because the schedule is that tough and the Colts offense is so not good. He was right. What has the Colts added to improve this team on either side of the ball, besides a healthy QB? Nothing that matters. And weak defense is not good trying to stop Rivers. This will be nasty.

Who wins? Playing at home helps. But look, it wasn’t enough to stop DETROIT! San Diego in a lot of ways is a lot tougher to deal with than the defensively-challenged Lions, much less Denver last week. The Colts need Luck of 2013-14 to rally this squad. But the supporting cast still sucks since 13-14 and is no better now. Not enough against the Chargers. Chargers win.

San Diego 38 Indianapolis 31

Los Angeles at Tampa Bay: WTF? If you want to see stranger turnarounds from Week 1 to Week 2, watch the tape of these two teams. Yes, we know NOW the Seahawks offense is in deep bleep. But Tampa got embarrassed last week. Damn. Now they play each other in Florida. This will be wild. Remember, the Rams do have defense….and defense travels everywhere if they don’t screw up. Tampa, not so much. And now RB Doug Martin (hamstring) is out for a while, too? Oh, no. Tampa QB Jameis Winston needs a good running game…and now. Damn. Let’s be real. Barring turnover returns or special teams, I am not sure I would take the over for COMBINED points hitting 21. Really. I have Sunday Ticket and I almost don’t want to see this game.

Who wins: Who cares? Okay, first team to double figures wins. Okay..first to 15 wins. If you have the Rams defense in fantasy football…you may score double lotto here. Really. Defense wins titles…and ugly  no-offense games. I am not even sure the Rams will score their first TD in this game. Notice I said………….. touchdown…not offensive TD. I mean TD, period. I am serious. Go look it up. Even so. I am taking the Rams. Field goals count too, especially in bulk. Dallas did it once with 7 FGs and no TDs. Just saying.

Los Angeles 15 Tampa Bay 10

San Francisco at Seattle: Well, this was a major matchup in recent years. Today, it is just…ugly. I do think we will see more points than the Rams game I just discussed….but not by much. The Seahawks are so fucked up after LOSING to the RAMS 9-3. WTF? The Niners got smashed in Carolina after they smashed the same RAMS at home in Week 1. So who does something here? Hard to say. Not much more to say. Ugh.

Who wins: If Seattle QB Russell Wilson can move around better on his hurt ankle and help the pass game…Seattle can win at home. But new Niners coach Chip Kelly may have some plan for this game. He has faced Seattle before. Kelly’s offense surely cannot be held down that much by the Legion of Boom..right? The winner gets to keep with Arizona…the loser…hangs out because no one is running away with this division. At least not right now. I am taking the Niners for Seattle is not flipping that switch this week.

San Francisco 20 Seattle 12

Washington at New York Giants: This is a big game…ODB vs Norman aside. The Giants are a surprising 2-0, but must win to stay ahead of Dallas and keep up with the Eagles who might go to 3-0 on SNF. The Redskins have two tough losses already at home. Now they must rally on the road. For QB Kirk Cousins to prove he deserves the franchise tag money he got and the long term deal he wants, he must play better and win games, no matter who he has to throw to. But even so, it may be moot if the defense cannot stop a nasty Giants pass game. After having one good WR last year, QB Eli Manning has potentially THREE to throw to in Beckham, rookie Shepherd and the returned Victor Cruz. New Washington CB Josh Norman cannot cover all three all day. What will the rest of the defense do to slow the Giants offense down? Good question.

Who wins? The game might have been close if Washington had all of the pieces they have lost to defections or injury (and no I am not talking about Griffin III!). The bottom line is that the Giants can execute offense (specifically passing) again and the Redskins, even with Norman don’t have enough to stop them. 2-0, 0-2, doesn’t matter. I have to take New York. And..take the over of 2.5 combined penalties and/or personal fouls when Norman specifically guards Beckham in this game. I hope and don’t think one, the other or both will be thrown out…but I won’t be surprised.

New York Giants 30 Washington 20

Oakland at Tennessee: The new look Raiders defense can’t stop giving up yards. But at least penalties are down. However, getting a split between Atlanta and New Orleans is okay. Now they go out on the road again to face a dangerous Titans team. Can the Titans QB Marcus Mariota shred the Raiders. No. But the running game with RB DeMarco Murray might. But can the Titans stop the Raiders offense? No. We will have a shootout here.

Who wins? The Titans struggled to score on teams they could have done so on and made a lot of mistakes. The Raiders defense looked like shit….but the offense is just as dangerous. If Tennessee can’t score on this defense, they have no chance to stop the Raiders offense by giving them extra possessions. Offensively, the Raiders have a slight edge. Defensively, if the Raiders defense does better than the first two weeks, Oakland wins again. And that will happen, because Jack Del Rio will not allow less. Raiders steal another road win.

Oakland 38 Tennessee 30

  

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: The Battle of Pennsylvania. This is a real fight. But both teams are….undefeated? The Eagles being such is a surprise, the Steelers less so.This will be interesting. But these two teams are blue-collar teams and fits their locations perfectly. I expect a tough, hard fought game. To even think about expecting otherwise, would make one a uninformed football fan.

Who wins? The Steelers have experience on their side which matters. However, the Eagles do have youth and more weapons right now, with Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell out serving the last game of his suspension. Pittsburgh has adapted well without Bell so far, but playing the so-called "state championship NFL game" on the road, especially in Philly which is a tough place to win at for more reasons than one is one disadvantage that is hard to overcome. Clearly, the Eagles seem to have done the right thing trading up for rookie 2nd overall pick and sudden Week 1 starter Carson Wentz, but the season is still young. For this day, the Eagles will steal this one. It will be interesting to see where Wentz, these Eagles and these Steelers will be when the teams face each other again (in the regular season) in four years. Eagles win.

Philadelphia 37 Pittsburgh 34 (OT)

Sunday Night Football on NBC:
Chicago at Dallas: This is not a marquee SNF matchup.  The very weak Bears, who are without embattled QB Jay Cutler for a few weeks facing a Dallas team without QB Tony Romo, but rookie QB Dak Prescott looks really good. The winner stays at a decent level in the early season, the loser is already in a big hole. Other than watching Prescott and Dallas rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott, not much to see here.

Who wins? Bottom line, Dallas has more weapons that Chicago does. And they are playing at home in prime time. Right. Chicago will fight, but they will not win unless the injury bug strikes again. That would be strange, but won't happen. Dallas wins.

Dallas 30 Chicago 20

Monday Night Football on ESPN:

Atlanta at New Orleans: NFC South division war! This will be an offensive air show. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan vs Saints QB Drew Brees. Enough said. I don’t have to say more. There won’t be great defense at all. This will be fun and may be the most fun game on the entire MNF schedule. Don’t be late, get your food early and only do bathroom breaks at the end of quarters and halftime. Trust me. This will be good.

Who wins? Simple answer. MNF in the Superdome. Nobody wants to bleep with that. Too much magic and whatever in that place. And that won’t change here. Saints win in a major shootout. Tape this game for you will need replay to catch everything….lol.

New Orleans 53 Atlanta 48

Bonus picks: WWE Clash of Champions PPV projections:
    This is a Monday Night Raw-exclusive pay per view where every title on this roster is defended. Below is my predictions of the results of each match, though the "finish" may end differently or not at all if a major interruption and/or injury to a Superstar occurs that requires a match to be stopped (similar to Lesnar-Orton at SummerSlam):

Pre-show: Nia Jax defeats Alicia Fox via pinfall. Fox deserves a run to give her a shot at the Raw Womens Championship, but the former World champ is now just a steppingstone to Jax, who may ultimately get a push toward a title shot, but like Braun Strowman, likely won't for a while.

TJ Perkins defends the "new" WWE Cruiserweight title over Brian Kendrick: Perkins just won the title at the Cruiserweight Classic a few days ago. He is not losing it this fast, especially before a clear introduction of all the cruiserweights are seen and heard from on Raw.

Sami Zayn defeats Chris Jericho: Zayn needs this signature win over a former champ and finally gets it, for all the good that it does.

Cesaro defeats Sheamus to win best of 7 series 4-3. Sheamus is a multiple-time World Champion. Cesaro is not. Cesaro needs this win and the future title opportunity more than The Celtic Warrior. He finds a way to do it, and use Sheamus' arrogance and desperation to win, just like the Boston Red Sox did to the Yankees in the ALCS years ago. Nice.

Roman Reigns upsets Rusev to win the United States title. Reigns needs to be to the side to work on his image and be relevant on TV. Reigns is one of the few who can match with Rusev in power speed and moves despite his size. Reigns uses his speed and aggression to beat Rusev at his own game, even powering out of the Accolade finisher to win gold.

Gallows and Anderson defeat the New Day for the WWE Tag Team championship: The New Day has had a long run with the gold, breaking records. It is time for them to give the gold up, maybe go get some rest and come back to try to become 3-time champs. Tonight, they will do so, but not cleanly.

Bayley upsets Charlotte and Sasha Banks to win the Raw Womens Championship in a Triple Threat Match: This will be the match of the night. It will be a war, but not without controversy, but Bayley pins Charlotte to become champion. That will be a fun scene.

Kevin Owens retains the Universal Championship over Seth Rollins: Owens is a great heel and it will shown in this match. Rollins will cheat to win, but Owens will do more to keep the title. Simple as that. And it won't be clean pins.