2016 NFL Picks Week 4…plus the Chase for the Sprint Cup continues…..

Last Week: 10-6, plus 4-3-1 on the bonus picks. The tie is that the Cesaro-Sheamus match had no winner because both men were declared medically unfit to finish the match.

Season: 26-22, plus 8-5-1 on bonus picks. This is a improvement..lol.

Fantasy Football people….not only do the bye weeks start, but so do the International games as well. Please note the early start times not only for setting lineup, but also to watch the game in London if you want. These games may matter more than one realizes right now…lol.

Teams on bye this week:

1.       Philadelphia (3-0): One of the big shocks of the season so far is that BOTH Minnesota and these Eagles, who did the big trade of the preseason when Minnesota sent their 2017 first round pick to the Eagles for embattled then-starter (and former top overall pick) QB Sam Bradford. The trade suddenly elevated rookie second overall pick Carson Wentz to starter. In three wins, he has shown poise that most veteran QBs never master and the team's offense under rookie coach (and fomer NFL QB) Doug Peterson has flourished. I have to wonder if this super early bye week will hurt the Eagles down the road by slowing the early momentum this team had built. especially with almost all of their in-division games, home and away, down the road. All I can say right now is that whatever the Eagles are doing to get this great start...don't stop. And whatever they do...they must protect this young QB and the whole team for that matter from injury, for they cannot afford to lose their starter like so many other teams have already. If they lose any major players for long periods, this Week 4 bye could really bite them in the ass. But we will see.

2.       Green Bay  (2-1):  Green Bay is lucky to be 2-1, seeing how weak QB Aaron Rodgers and the offense has been, even with getting back favorite target WR Jordy Nelson back from the knee injury that cost him all of the 2015 season. The Packers loss at surprisingly undefeated Minnesota in the first game at the new Vikings stadium on SNF was a shock, but maybe it shows how much stronger the Vikings are,...at least on defense. But like in previous years, I would bet if asked, Rodgers would tell Packer Nation to R-E-L-A-X. And he would be right. This team is far from done. It is safe to think the Vikings will come back to the Packers if they stay the course. Regardless, the Packers must keep winning, in case Minnesota does not falter and Green Bay needs a wild-card berth. With both NFC finalists having serious issues out the gate, Green Bay must keep winning to make sure they earn their playoff spot. But unless Rodgers, RB Eddie Lacy and the offense gets better, can they?

Thursday Night Football on NFL Network:

Miami at Cincinnati: This game is big for early wild-card implications. With both teams with two losses and the entire AFC, except Cleveland and Jacksonville with at least one win (Oakland, KC and Pittsburgh, who beat the Bengals already, have two 2 wins and control the wildcard spots for now), this could well be an elimination game, for most of the teams ahead of them are NOT playing each other this week. Fall to 1-3 and that team will likely not climb over 6-9 teams to steal a wild-card spot. Miami looks shaky all around. Cincinnati is hurting and may well not have the Pittsburgh loss behind them. This may be a sneaky good game.

Who wins? Both teams seem shaky on defense and offense. But, bottom line, Bengals QB Andy Dalton is a “sort-of” proven QB and has led teams to the playoffs. Miami’s Ryan Tannehill has not. And with the Bengals at home at night and has more weapons overall, I take the Bengals.

Cincinnati 34 Miami 24

Sunday’s Games:

International Series Game on CBS: 930am EDT start time:

Indianapolis at Jacksonville from Wembley Stadium in London: This game looks to not be that important coming from London and not worth doing Breakfast with the NFL near Wimbledon (lol), unless you have players in this game, for fantasy football purposes and/or you root for one these teams. Like tonight’s game, this game could be an elimination game as far as an AFC wild-card is concerned. Except….this is the AFC South, and it is a weak division. With Houston now losing all-world DE J.J Watt (back-IR) for presumably the season makes Houston’s slim 1 game lead in the division even weaker. A win brings the Jags back into the race, or a win could put the Colts back at the top of the division if Houston falters. But neither will be done either way…but 1-3 Colts or 0-4 Jags won’t be good…especially for the Colts who are NOT on bye next week (WTF?), though the Jags are. Hence a loss here could be a killer for the Colts may well have a hard time winning at home next week after all that travel…even though the Cutler-less Bears are the next opponent. Hmm.

Who wins? At the end of the day, which team is better and/or more desperate for a win? I would have wanted to say the Jaguars...but I can’t. This team is young and just hasn’t gelled yet. They don’t know how to win close ones, yet. The Colts have more experience, and more importantly, they have QB Andrew Luck. And for this game…that will be enough. Colts win.

Indianapolis 27 Jacksonville 21

Tennessee at Houston: Houston is reeling from the loss of DE J.J. Watt (back-IR). Period. BUT this team is still in first place in the AFC South. This team is still dangerous. And unlike last year…they have a sort-of viable and more importantly, healthy QB now. They will need all of that and more to win this game and continue to try to push for a playoff berth in a still-winnable division. The Titans know they have more of a chance with Watt out to keep their QB, Marcus Mariota upright. But can they take advantage of initial shock and steal this win on the road?

Who wins? I just do not seeing the Titans doing it here. They are too inconsistent at this point….and Houston’s defense is far more than one guy, even Watt. From here on, we get to see if this Houston D can be led by DE Clowney and friends and if they can still be dominant without Watt, who has played a bunch of seasons and had a bunch of injuries already. Just saying. I think Houston finds a way to rally and win this one…barely. Texans win.

Houston 24 Tennessee 21 (OT)

Seattle at New York Jets: Seattle is in big trouble. The offense looked like crap..until last week, but more importantly, their leader, QB Russell Wilson (ankle and more) is battered and hobbled. RB Thomas Rawls is out injured again and Marshawn Lynch is retired. Enter newly signed free agent C.J. Spiller to provide depth. How much can he help mere days after being signed? Hard to say, but I hope he can block real well to protect Wilson. The Jets are in that pack of AFC teams I mentioned who needs wins now. But can they? I am not sure about that. The Patriots, despite everything is STILL winning and Brady is back next week…and they play Cleveland…right. Unless Buffalo somehow upsets NE, another loss will end the Jets’ shot at a division title. Seattle is tied for first in a tight (for now) NFC West with….the Rams who have already upset them (WTF???). Another early loss can be the loss that sinks the Seahawks’ playoff hopes later. Right, Arizona?

Who wins? Too close to call. Both need this win and it will be tight. Bottom line, Seattle is not the same team WITH a healthy Wilson and a running game. With Wilson hobbled…ugh. If the Jets can’t win this game..even with the Legion of Boom in town…the Jets may want to call themselves done before they even face the undefeated Patriots AND Tom Brady. I think the Jets will man up and win…this week. Jets win.

New York Jets 20 Seattle 15

Buffalo at New England: This is Buffalo’s one shot to slow down the surprisingly undefeated Patriots on the road. They are beat up, but the Patriots don’t have Brady and as of Thursday, we don’t know which backup QB will start…or will be available if not both. But will it matter? Can Buffalo find a way to pull off a upset that keeps them in a playoff race or will they go flat…again?

Who wins? NE has already did what they had to do until Brady returns. A loss here won’t kill them since they are two games clear right now. But still…4-0 is still better than 3-1, right? And this team will not pass on a chance to humble Rex Ryan and these Bills, even without Brady or Gronkowski (who is playing). Patriots win again.

New England 29 Buffalo 24

Carolina at Atlanta: Atlanta got a big win on Monday night by outlasting the Saints and Drew Brees. Now they go home for the hurting defending NFC champs in the first of two annual meetings. Atlanta is great offense, even with hurting WRs, but the defense is still...not good. The Panthers are 1-2 after a slow start and defending league MVP Cam Newton has been hammered more in 3 games than he had all of last year..before the Super Bowl, that is. With the Panthers having a shaky running game too, this could (and should be) a passing show between two of the better passers in the NFL today. Any defensive stands done in this game will be a big deal!

Who wins? Atlanta needs this win to stay ahead of Carolina and Tampa Bay, who has already beat them once. Carolina needs this win to right the ship and leave the division even at the quarter pole, and keeps winless New Orleans in the race..for now. Newton has a little more diversity on his side than Atlanta QB Matt Ryan does, and simply put, Atlanta's defense cannot stop Newton. Time of possession means everything here, and Carolina will do that better. I am taking the champs on the road.

Carolina 34 Atlanta 28

Detroit at Chicago: The Bears are already looking dead and buried after three losses, and having mercurial starting QB Jay Cutler out with injury (again). The Bears pretty much are, though they will not go down fighting. Can they avoid 0-16? This week may be a winnable game..maybe? The Lions have shown far more life than expected after WR Calvin Johnson abruptly retired in the off-season, much like Hall of Fame RB Barry Sanders did years ago. But after upsetting the Colts in Week 1, the Lions have not won again. Lose this one and their season is over. But with RB woes galore and shaky WRs, QB Matthew Stafford has to be Superman (and get help from somewhere...like the defense? his receivers? somebody?) for the Lions to win. Good luck with that. This is why Johnson left...and would he make much of a difference if he was still playing?

Who wins? No one outside of these towns. The Lions can stay relevant by winning this game. But seeing them outdoors is usually not a good thing...as Green Bay showed. The Bears, unfortunately, are no better. But at the end of the day, Detroit has a viable QB....and Chicago does not. All things considered, it is not much...but it is enough this day. Lions win, but will get a big chunk of hide taken out of them by Bears claws.

Detroit 28 Chicago 27

Denver at Tampa Bay: Denver may well be lucky to be 3-0, but they are. Their defense is still tough, but seeing what they do in road games will say a lot since the first two games were at home, and they should have lost at least the opener. Tampa shocked Atlanta in their opener, but has been blasted ever since. Can Tampa upset the world champs at home?

Who wins? Tampa has talent at QB, but with their best RB out, and the WRs looking not good at all...I see no chance against this defense. Plus Denver has looked decent on offense so far. Tampa has not much defense, to put it nicely. Perhaps John Elway did the right thing after all by letting Osweiler leave? So far so good. Denver wins again.

Denver 29 Tampa Bay 17

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona: After the asskicking the Rams took at SF in Week 1, no one expected the Rams to be tied for first in the NFC West, but here they are. Arizona was expected to be in first in the West right now, but they lost two games at home already. Not good. Another loss will not finish Arizona in the division race, especially if Seattle loses again (and the Rams lose later), but if the Cardinals have to get a wildcard berth to make the playoffs...this would not be good. The Rams must win to stay at the top, especially seeing how shaky the Seahawks are. Every game matters...and that Rams defense may be getting stronger and stronger. Strange.

Who wins? Arizona looks a little better on offense...but they are so shaky. The Rams are so tough on defense. I am thinking the Rams are on cloud 9 when it comes to confidence...and gritty defense works well...anywhere. I am taking the Rams in a upset in a low-scoring affair.

Los Angeles 20 Arizona 17 (OT)

New Orleans at San Diego: The Saints have been hard luck losers so far and find themselves 0-3. The Chargers have not only had hard losses, but have lost most of their play-makers for the year due to injury. However, the Saints still have future Hall of Famer Drew Brees who faces his former team in SD for the first time since he left nearly a decade ago. The Chargers still have his replacement in Philip Rivers, who might be considered for the HOF when his career ends if he had led his team to a Super Bowl, like Brees has. With neither team having much running game left, though the Saints still have RB Mark Ingram, this will be another passing show in a nice weather place. Enjoy.

Who wins? The loser of this game will be all but out of the playoff race...barring miracles. This could have been one of the wildest game of the year, but all the injuries have stripped that away. Enjoy this battle between Brees and Rivers, for I fear that one or maybe neither of these guys will be at the helm by the time these teams see each other again in the regular season...in four years. Bottom, line, Chargers will fight hard, but the Saints are even more desperate..and they have more right now. Saints get that first win here.

New Orleans 39 San Diego 36

Dallas at San Francisco: The Cowboys are hanging in there without QB Tony Romo after blowing the opener to the Giants. But now WR Dez Bryant is down too (again). Rookie QB Dak Prescott and HB Ezekiel Elliott have already proved they both have game. But the Cowboys need more than that to stay close in the NFC East while undefeated Philadelphia is on bye. The Niners are in a tight NFC West race, though no one thought the Niners would be much this year. Too early to say one way or the other though they have been punked the last two games. This could be a interesting game between two storied franchises...though the players are....not that storied...yet.

Who wins? Dallas has not done a great job protecting their house...but has gotten lucky on the road. The Niners are the opposite. With the injuries and everything else..this is a toss-up. I just see some strange things this week...I am taking the Niners in a upset at home. Dallas needs some help fast...and I am not talking about at QB or RB. Seriously.

San Francisco 29 Dallas 27

Cleveland at Washington: The Browns are looking like the Browns, except that they have some fight. This team should have beat Baltimore...and Miami...but they didn't. Hence, 0-3. The Redskins should have beat Dallas....and put up more of a fight versus Pittsburgh at home....but they didn't. They should have lost at the Giants. But they didn't do that either. Hence 1-2....and they are still in the NFC East race..though they are last, two behind the undefeated Eagles who are on bye. Cleveland sucks on the road. Surely, Washington can use momentum to win and not go 0-3 at home, right?

Who wins? Cleveland has no QB. The best one who is still healthy is playing WR in Terrelle Pryor. They have runners, but not so great ones. And they find out that suspended WR Josh Gordon is going to rehab..again...and will not be returning next week, and likely not ever...in a Browns uniform. Not sure what the deal is, but the defense is no good either. And Washington is nearly at full strength on offense. That means...little. Washington wins...barely. But if Cleveland somehow steals this one...somehow I won't be surprised. Washington winning by 30...THAT would surprise me...and that is not a good thing. Redskins survive to go to 2-2. Oh, and don't be surprised, if Pryor is the starting QB for these Browns at some point this year...if not next week.

Washington 34 Cleveland 20.

Oakland at Baltimore: These Ravens should have losses. But they are still undefeated. Yes, their schedule may have been light...but the wins is what counts. Now, they get a real challenge in the road-weary Raiders. But the Raiders are 2-0 on the road.and barely lost to the Falcons at home....with the defense looking like Swiss cheese. But the Ravens seem to like to fall behind early. Do that here, and these Raiders will bury you. Young Raiders QB Derek Carr is very good on the road, even when the team doesn't win. And he has a lot of help now on both sides of the ball. Baltimore is tough at home with QB Joe Flacco leading the way. But will that be enough to go to 4-0? Not so sure.

Who wins? Look, the Raiders have already, and will be logging a LOT of road miles this year. But they are young and hungry and they have not totally gotten it together yet, especially the defense. But hanging 35 and 28 on high scoring (and defensively challenged) New Orleans and Atlanta is no joke..and Tennessee didn't come close to that. For all the good fortune the Ravens have gotten against Cleveland and others earlier...the schedule gets harder..starting now. Oakland will not let the Ravens do what they did to Cleveland...sorry. Not the 2016 Raiders, that is. Oakland moves to 3-1 and stays right behind the champs and score another road upset. Sorry, Ravens. Time to get real. Raiders win.

Oakland 29 Baltimore 24

Sunday Night Football on NBC:

Kansas City at Pittsburgh: This will be a tough game fought between two tough teams. Pittsburgh is pissed after getting dumped on and declawed on the road by the undefeated Eagles (and taking state bragging rights with them). But this is the Steelers and they come back fast...especially when at home. The Chiefs look strong and are a good 2-1. Better yet, they will finally get dangerous RB Jamaal Charles back from injury, but these guys had won 11 of their last twelve regular season games (and a joke of a wild-card playoff game on the road) without him. So the Chiefs have a shot, right? One problem. These Steelers have offense, led by QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Antonio Brown...and they also get top RB Le'Veon Bell back (suspension) as well on SNF. Ummm.....this game is must see...right?

Who wins? While the Chiefs are battle-tested and are led by steady QB Alex Smith, even with Charles and WR Jeremy Maclin and a good defense...this is Pittsburgh...at home...after a embarrassing loss. Coach Mike Tomlin (NUPE!!...wiki his history to understand the reference.) is not going out like that. Especially with the Ravens potentially being 4-0 if they win earlier in the day. This is a must win for both teams....and the higher emotions of the Steelers at home will be more than the emotions of Charles returning to play with KC. And the Steelers have Brown and Big Ben. Case closed. No overtime TD miracle run this time for Smith. Steelers win in OT with a Bell TD run. Been there....done THAT before...lol.

Pittsburgh 34 Kansas City 28 (OT)

Monday Night Football on ESPN:

New York Giants at Minnesota: Minnesota is undefeated...with no Bridgewater and now, no Peterson. The Giants should be 3-0...but they choked to the (then) win-less Washington Redskins...at home. WTF??? Well, the NFL has strange things happening every week, every year. One thing is for sure. The Vikings' new home is a palace. But it can it really handle heavy Minnesota snow? We will see in a few weeks...maybe. Anyway, this will be a jewel in the MNF schedule this year...and that was not planned, when the schedule came out. The question is: can the super-shorthanded Vikings stuff the now-dangerous Giants in a game that may matter for playoff seeding later? Or does midnight start to toll for the Vikings?

Who wins?  This will be a tough test for both teams. But in the end...I am taking Cinderella at home. The Giants are too shaky and the Vikings have shown they are tough...and they have a REAL defense regardless of the injuries on offense. Defense matters. Vikings steal another win to open the season.

Minnesota 29 New York Giants 24

Bonus Picks: Chase for the Sprint Cup Playoffs: Race 3: Round of 16 Finale:

Citizen Soldier 400 at Dover International Speedway, Dover DE

This race sets the final group of 12 that advances to the second (quarterfinal) round of the Chase. Two Chase drivers have already advanced based on winning a Chase race. If a different Chase driver wins this race, he also automatically advances regardless of points, which could bump out someone who might have had more points otherwise. The drivers’ regular season and Round of 12 race wins mean nothing after this round, except in case of a points tie after the Homestead finale, where number of wins is the tiebreaker (See Stewart vs Edwards a few years ago).. The four drivers with the lowest point totals will fail to advance, but they keep their points and earn points for the remaining seven races to see who finishes 13^th-16^th in the final standings. Below is my thoughts and predictions for the Chase drivers and who will advance after this race and who won’t. I have a feeling that rain will affect this race…the DC area is being drenched with rain as I write this on Thursday morning and I fear it will proceed north and affect Delaware shortly. I will not surprise me if qualifying gets washed out and/or the race gets postponed to Monday (or even Tuesday) to get it in. Luckily, the next race is in Charlotte, NC...but it is currently scheduled for next Saturday. We will see how it goes.

Already Advanced:

By virtue of winning at Chicagoland and New Hamphshire respectively, these Chase drivers automatically move to the Round of 12, regardless of points.

Martin Truex, Jr. (Chicagoland, 2^nd in outright points).

Kevin Harvick (New Hampshire, 6^th in outright points).

Assuming a non-Chase driver or Truex, Jr. or Harvick wins this race:

Drivers who should advance on points barring a last place finish and/or another Chase driver winning this race:

1.       Brad Keselowski: Current points leader….30 points ahead of 12th place, 60 points ahead of 16^th

2.       Kyle Busch: 3^rd in points, 2 points behind Brad K.

3.       Matt Kenseth: 4^th in points, 9 behind Brad K.

4.       Joey Logano: 5^th in points, 5 behind Kenseth, 16 points ahead of 12th

5.       Denny Hamlin: Tied for 6^th in points with Harvick, 2 behind Logano

6.       Jimmie Johnson: 8^th in points, 1 behind Hamlin

Look, all of these guys are Chase veterans. Only Logano and Hamlin have NOT won a title..yet. Kyle Busch (defending champ) and Brad K are the only ones who almost surely could finish near last in this race and still advance on points. The others are not quite as secure, but only a nuclear (early) wreck scenario knocking all six of them out of the race could allow a low seed or two to knock them out, in addition to one of them winning the race. But stranger things have happened. Wait till Talledega...lol.

Drivers who need to do well and/or win or have other drivers crash out early to advance:

9. Chase Elliott: tied with Edwards, 11 points ahead of Larson in 12^th

10. Carl Edwards: tied with Elliott, 11 points ahead of Larson in 12^th

11. Kurt Busch: 1 point behind Elliott and Edwards, 10 points ahead of Larson in 12^th

12. Kyle Larson: 10 points behind Kurt Busch, 5 points ahead on McMurray and Dillon in 13^th/14^th

All of these guys need to be up front, lead laps to get a bonus point,  and finish the race in the top 10, if not better to be sure to advance. Edwards and Kurt Busch have the experience to stay clean, but Chase rookies Larson and (true rookie) Elliott had better drive a perfect race and stay away from trouble to do the same, even though they both have good teams and equipment. Dover is not the easiest of tracks and I expect a lot of cautions, especially if rain factors in…like I think it will.

Drivers who must finish in the top 5, IF NOT WIN…..AND have drivers ahead of them crash out and finish below 35^th to MAYBE advance.

13. Jamie McMurray: tied with Dillon, 5 behind Larson in 12th

14. Austin Dillon: tied with McMurray, 5 behind Larson in 12th

15: Tony Stewart: 6 points behind Mc Murray and Dillon, 11 points out of 12^th

Seeing 3 time champ Stewart make the Chase in his final year, especially with the on-track and off-track issues of the last few years, is very cool. But we would like to see him advance to the round of 12, at least. Stewart’s car is decent, but not great. He cannot drive it like teammate Harvick is now, but for one race..if the breaks come his way and others falter (someone will!), Stewart CAN make up 11 points and bump Larson if he does not win. Make up 21-27 points to get to as far up as even Logano? I doubt it unless a nuclear wreck or car failure takes out most of the Chase drivers (except Buescher) ahead of him early….no chance..right?

McMurray and Dillon together are right there and can advance if more than 2 or 3 drivers ahead of them crash early and finish way low…but if Stewart or Buescher outright wins…unless they finish in the top 5, they may still be gone. Too close to call.

This driver MUST (BLEEPING) WIN to advance: And if he does…I will likely (bleep) myself among other things….and so will a lot of other people!

16: Chris Buescher: 30 points out of 12th

He has an inferior car and team, even to his teammate, Truex, Jr. Still, having 5 lower-tier cars (6 if you count Truex, Jr.) in the 16-car Chase is big. We already know Truex, Jr. is advanced. At least one or likely two of the others will advance too, just based on number of cars unless strange things happen. But almost surely, NOT THIS ONE! 

Strategy and a lucky rainstorm that ended a race early when he was ahead is the ONLY reason he is in the Chase, and he didn’t even clinch the top 30 spot on points required for a “guaranteed” Chase spot until late in the regular season finale at Richmond, otherwise Kahne or maybe Newman would have been in the Chase instead. But this has happened before (Aric Almirola winning a rain-shortened Firecracker 400 (his only Cup series win) at Daytona to put the famous Petty 43 car in its first Chase a couple of years ago….but he was safely in the top 30 at the time and never came close to falling below such. He didn’t get the famous Petty 43 car out of the round of 16, however).

The potential rain situation and this unpredictable track might give Buescher a miracle punch’s chance to win IF his strategy and pit stops are perfect for the entire race AND if there is a LOT of driver misfortune with the other Chase drivers from the start. If he qualifies lower than 25^th like he usually does…or falls a lap down, he is done. He must be better all weekend, and must take every chance in the book (fuel economy, tires, when to pit or not) to have a chance to steal this win. Even a second place finish AND earning every bonus point to be had short of winning outright  is not enough to get him through on points…UNLESS the bottom half of the Chase field ALL wreck out early and ALL finish in the last 5-6 places (34^th-40^th places AND they all earn NO bonus points!). This race is where this young Chase rookie gets to (try to) prove that his win and presence in this Chase is no fluke. Good luck.

Drivers who do not advance to the Round of 12:
Buescher, Stewart, Dillon and McMurray