2016 NFL Picks Week 5: Busy weekend of sports and WWE pay-per-view too!

2016 NFL Picks Week Five

Last Week: 9-6 plus 3-1 on bonus picks

Season: 35-28, plus 11-6-1 on bonus picks. I am starting to move up on picks, but I know I left a lot of winning picks on the table.

Teams on Bye:

1.       Seattle (3-1): This is a rather shaky 3-1 team. Despite having the majority of the defense being as strong as ever, especially the Legion of Boom secondary, the offense is in trouble. The running game is in shreds, both due to ineffectiveness and also ongoing injuries to shaky starter RB Thomas Rawls. New FA pickup RB C.J. Spiller may help through the season...or he may not. Their best weapon is QB Russell Wilson, who has already been one of the biggest draft steals of all-time. However, his badly hurt ankle has affected this offense greatly in the early going. Without his mobility, Wilson is greatly diminished as a quaterback and it would make his smaller-than NFL average height and arm strength a much more important (negative) factor. Hence, this bye is huge for him. However, even if Wilson returns next week recovered...the running game is still weak. The receivers are still...middle of the road at best. Even with the strong defense, Seattle is more like a paper-thin 3-1...and they still must face the Rams again,..in LA. Can Wilson stay healthy? Can he and this defense carry Seattle to the playoffs, especially if the Rams can keep up their surprising start? Hard to say. Ask me again after Week 10.

2.       Kansas City (2-2): The Chiefs look shaky. Yes, they escaped with the opener in OT. But the Chiefs haven't been that great since. With the Raiders and the Broncos already having passed them, they are in a hole. If the two win again, the Chiefs will be in  worse trouble with a game at Oakland next week. Getting RB Jamaal Charles back is good, but the team had been doing better without him than with him. Go figure. These Chiefs may need 10 straight wins to make the playoffs, never mind win the division. Can they do this?I have my doubts...but they have a good QB and coach...and defense..so who knows?

3.       Jacksonville (1-3): The Jaguars are shaky and has already blown at least two games they could have won. They stole away a win from the Colts in London, but they have been useless otherwise. Will they be better after the bye? Maybe...the early bye could help them down the road. But they are a young team. Playoffs may be too much to ask for this year. But building for a playoff run next year? That starts NOW!

4.       New Orleans (1-3): These Saints are in a transition right now. Their start clearly says that this is not a serious playoff threat. Too many young pieces and inexperience around veteran QB Drew Brees. But...the NFC South is no sure thing, even for 3-1 Atlanta. The early bye may help New Orleans rally...or it might not. But that offense can still do work...so we will see. I won't count these guys or Brees out...yet.

Thursday Night Football on CBS/NFL Network:

Arizona at San Francisco: This game may well be a (wild-card) playoff elimination game...in Week 5. Yes...it is that big. Few folk thought Arizona would be in this spot. But bad breaks, injuries and shaky play has them here. Worse yet, the Cardinals must play at least this game (likely more) without QB Carson Palmer (concussion) and that will all but kill this offense, as we have seen in recent years. Unless.....backup QB Drew Stanton can get this offense going and get a win outdoors at night on the road. The defense is decent...but not on a Denver or Minnesota (?) level. The Niners were not expected to be a contender in 2016. People took notice when they blanked the Rams on the late MNF game from Week 1. But the Niners have been beat up ever since. So one does not expect a lot from this team. If the Niners hope to steal another division win....this is the one they must grab..especially at home!

Who wins? This game will be ugly. I do not see a lot of scoring. But if either or both of these teams makes the playoffs...this game could be the springboard toward such. With Palmer out, the  QBs are even...and that is something Arizona will take...and run with. Because the Cardinals roster and coaching staff is better top to bottom than that of San Francisco...I am taking the Cardinals to survive..this week. Next week...is another story.

Arizona 27 San Francisco 21

Sunday’s Games:

New England at Cleveland: Tom Brady is back! Patriots Nation is very happy about that. But how fortunate that the Patriots to get...Cleveland (WTF?) for his first game? But the game is in Cleveland. Cleveland (not surprisingly) is the NFL's last win-less team. They are on their third starting QB. They have shaky defense and little offense. Except for last week's shocking loss at HOME to Buffalo, the Patriots have weathered a near record amount of QB woes (Cleveland is still the standard-bearer in this regard. 2016 is a great example of that!) , this team refuses to lose. What chance does the Browns have to win?

Who wins? The Patriots will be at full strength, while the Browns are short-handed (as usual). The only things that could cause the Pats to lose their second straight game is TE Rob Gronkowski getting hurt (again...unlikely), Brady himself getting hurt and/or has the worst game of his career due to rust or whatever (highly unlikely) and the Browns that can play playing a perfect game for 60 minutes. Get real. Patriots will win.

New England 30 Cleveland 17

Philadelphia at Detroit: The surprising Eagles return from their early bye to face the reeling Lions. Detroit is a tougher team when they are at Ford Field than they are on the road, especially outdoors. Having a rookie coach and rookie QB has not hurt the Eagles so far, most of their games was at home. Winning on the road is another matter...especially for games that you are allegedly "supposed to win". With the rest of the NFC East not that far behind...even Washington.... every win matters. This is a classic trap game....if Detroit can channel some inner lion and play like such and without mistakes. Even with dangerous passer QB Matthew Stafford leading the way...good luck with that.

Who wins? Detroit has enough talent to pull off the upset. If Detroit controls the clock and Stafford throws the ball around like what QB Matt Ryan did for Atlanta last week, which he is capable of, I see a upset coming. However, I don't think that will happen. I see some rust and rookie errors from Wentz, but the Eagles will still win...this week.

Philadelphia 34 Detroit 25

Chicago at Indianapolis: The Bears got a much needed first win over Detroit last week. The Colts found a way to give away a needed win in London. Unlike the Jaguars, the Colts are playing this week instead of being on bye. If they win this winnable game at home, this could be a good thing. But can QB Andrew Luck and friends get it done? I have my concerns. This is a weak Bears team who doesn't even have shaky starter QB Jay Cutler (thumb) on the field. This team is far weaker than the Jaguars. Surely the Colts with a mostly healthy Luck can win this game, right?

Who wins? The Bears with backup QB Brian Hoyer has a chance to score another upset over these Colts who have to be tired after having to travel to and play in London seven days ago and then fly right back home to play again a week later. Some teams work better in such adversity. But the Colts do have a clear talent advantage. The Colts will get this right this time. Colts win.

Indianapolis 30 Chicago 23

Tennessee at Miami: This game will be kind of wet with Hurricane Matthew having passed by on Friday. Both teams was hoping for a better start, but that did not happen. Bottom line...every game matters from here on. Miami just isn't playing well and they have some injury issues. The Titans are young and not carrying a huge amount of talent which limits what QB Marcus Mariota can do. Plus the defense is not great. This game will not be that great, but it will be wet.

Who wins? The game is in Miami, but considering the weather that has come through there, home field won't help a already shaky team. The Titans are due for a win and they have a running game which is better on a super wet field. Plus the Titans have more talent..but not by much. Titans win.

Tennessee 26 Miami 24

Houston at Minnesota: Houston brings their good, but currently not great defense into Minnesota's new palace to face the undefeated Vikings and their BETTER team defense. The Texans still have a offense that is so-so and not super good yet. They have weapons but no consistency. Minnesota's resurgent defense can stuff this offense. The Vikings offense under QB Sam Bradford has done well considering the major injuries they have had...but injuries are still coming in. Can Houston's Watt-less defense stop these guys? I am not liking it.

Who wins? This will be a game of defenses ruling and offenses just going fetal and taking it. The team that makes the fewest mistakes and the fewest turnovers will win. That will be Minnesota. Every win they get to start off is one less win the Vikings need after their bye to make the playoffs. And if Green Bay loses again, the Vikings may be a few wins away from being gone in the NFC North. And if they get RB Adrian Peterson back at the end of the season? Oh, my. The Texans can lose today and still have great position in their division, but this one will sting. Minnesota wins and stays undefeated.

Minnesota 29 Houston 20

New York Jets at Pittsburgh: The Jets look real weak. Period. They have had some bad luck, but the bottom line is that this team is not winning. Pittsburgh is looking good, except for the ass-kicking they took in Philadelphia. They did get by the Bengals at home, but with five division games left, we will see how strong they really are. For today, the Steelers have everything they need to win, including home field and the returned RB Le'Veon Bell. What else is there to say?

Who wins? The Jets need a game like what Philly did...and then some...to be able to upset Pittsburgh. I am not saying it is impossible, but it is not likely. The Eagles have more overall talent, and Bell wasn't playing. Plus Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown 9 INTs the last two weeks. Expect some more here. Steelers win again.

Pittsburgh 31 New York Jets 20

Atlanta at Denver:  The Falcons go west after their record setting passing game for QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones at home last week. They are 3-1. They are on fire. The problem is....this team is usually not as good outdoors, and they get to face the deadly undefeated Denver defense. If these two rack up HALF of what they did last week, that will be a miracle. But here is the other side of the coin: Denver has to start rookie QB Paxton Lynch in place of injured starter Trevor Siemien. Lynch was not bad in finishing a win last week, but this defense is not the one to see in your first career start, even with the game at home. This could be interesting.

Who wins? Despite everything said above, remember...the Falcons has no defense. They are giving up 30-plus points a game. Yes that is NOT the worst in the league, but how long  can the offense cover for the defense? Won't happen this week. But if they really get to Lynch...you never know. But Denver's defense will not slow down Atlanta enough...and if Atlanta's offense stays on the field for more than 40 minutes and keep their defense on the bench, even in the thin Denver air, this Broncos defense will fold late. Atlanta somehow upsets Denver.

Atlanta 39 Denver 38

Cincinnati at Dallas: Dallas is rolling but QB Tony Romo is going to be back soon. Can the Cowboys bench rookie QB Dak Prescott when Romo returns? This game will go a ways in deciding that. The Bengals are shaky, but they are fare from the worst team in football (named Cleveland). The Dallas defense will be tested, even with some players returning to the lineup. This is a big game for both, because a loss could drop the loser 2 games behind the division leader...not good. This is a good late game to watch.

Who wins? I am not saying what I think about Dallas' QB dilemma right now, but the team has other concerns. They need this win, but so does the Bengals. I really have no faith in the shaky Bengals in QB Andy Dalton, but Dallas does still have a lot of weakness on defense, and what if WR Dez Bryant (knee) does not play like Bengals TE Tyler Eifert(back) again? I see a upset here. I am taking the Bengals.

Cincinnati 34 Dallas 27 (OT)

Buffalo at Los Angeles: Well, Buffalo upset the Patriots in Foxboro. Didn't see that coming. But the 2-2 Bills must go west to face the tougher Rams defense and their surprising 3-0 run after they got shut out in the opener. With the continuing injuries at WR, they will have a hard time just running the ball on the rugged Rams defense. This will be interesting. Can the Bills pull off a second straight road upset?

Who wins? Look, the Bills will NOT shut out these Rams. However, can the Bills score on offense? Can the Rams score a bunch on offense? After being so wrong on that with the Tampa game, I am not saying this will be low scoring, because it won't be. But Buffalo won't stop this offense and the Rams can score. That long flight west will sap the Bills. Rams keep rolling.

Los Angeles 31 Buffalo 20

Washington at Baltimore: This will be a interesting game. The Ravens field will be wet due to the bands from Hurricane Matthew which did delay the MLB playoff game in Washington. But this would be the same, if not worse, if this game was held in suburban Maryland. Whatever. The Redskins have won two straight, but Baltimore is a tough challenge, especially after being upset by Oakland last week. This is a must see game. The teams may not see this as a rivalry since they only play each other in the regular season every 4 years. Whatever. You will see differently.

Who wins? This will be a shootout. The wet field may slow down the passing game some...for both teams. So the running game will be the key. Baltimore's surprise release of RB Justin Forsett leaves young backs who have talent to run against the weak run defense of Washington. Who blinks the least? Washington will, because they have better runners...for now. I am taking Washington in a upset.

Washington 27 Baltimore 24 (OT)

San Diego at Oakland: I never thought I would say this...3 road wins to start the season? Raiders? WTF???? Yes, that is true. The Raiders survived the first 3 out of 4 road game trip 3-1. Good for them. But now, they come home and open their division schedule against a decimated, but still dangerous Chargers team. But Oakland's lead RB, Latavius Murray (toe) is OUT...so their young backups will have to carry the load. However, does it matter? The Raiders passing game is on fire, led by QB Derek Carr and his group of young AND old receivers. This team can score. The defense has allowed WAY too many yards and points and must get better. How long can the offense save them (like in Atlanta, who barely won here 2 weeks ago)? The Chargers have lost much of their offensive weapons, but as long as QB Philip Rivers is upright, you can never count this team out. Expect fireworks of passing here.

Who wins? I fear the Raiders defense may let Rivers throw for 500 yards (or the team totals 500-plus yards of offense), like Atlanta ran up last week on the battered Panthers. But Ryan didn't do that when they played the Raiders, so who knows. But the Chargers don't have defense to slow down Carr and friends either and the offense is hurting.  Bottom line, the Raiders defense might allow less than 500 yards, but not by much. But the Raiders offense is too steady and hot to be stopped by a decimated Chargers team, even at home. Raiders get their first home win and stay in the chase behind Denver.

Oakland 38 San Diego 31

Sunday Night Football on NBC:

New York Giants at Green Bay: Green Bay returns from their early bye week and plays at home against the now-shakier Giants. The Green Bay offense has looked like shit so far, but Green Bay keeps winning. But with Minnesota still undefeated, the Packers must win to stay close, having lost at Minnesota already. The Giants are in the same boat, with the undefeated Eagles returning from a early bye too, and looking like they could crush Detroit, right? Another conference loss will bury the Giants behind a lot of teams in the NFC, including EVERYONE in the NFC East. The Giants need to be desperate NOW..but can they win here?

Who wins? Green Bay can weather a loss a lot more than the Giants can, having gone from finally getting past Dallas to being shocked by Washington and finding themselves dropping from first to last in 4 weeks. Go figure. Am I surprised? No. Rookie head coach and turmoil aplenty across the roster, and not just the meltdowns of OBJ. Green Bay is more stable...more R-E-L-A-X-E-D and they are at home. Oh, and they have QB Aaron Rodgers. Sorry Eli..you may have more rings, but Rodgers will make the Hall of Fame before you based on the total resume. I am taking stable. Green Bay wins again.

Green Bay 35 New York Giants 30

Monday Night Football on ESPN:

Tampa Bay at Carolina: This game is likely to be a elimination game like the Arizona game at the Niners seems to be. Whomever loses will be 1-4, and it will be hard, if not impossible to overcome such to win ANY playoff berth in the competitive NFC. For Carolina, it looks like reigning MVP QB Cam Newton (concussion) will not play. Backup Derek Anderson is far from the worst backup in the league. But can he, a pocket passer, match his performance with that of the mobile and linebacker sized Newton to help the Panthers win? If not, can the Buccaneers take advantage, despite having a shaky offense and also missing key players in the run and pass game...and not having much of a defense either?

Who wins? Tough call. Tampa's QB Jameis Winston is talented, though his play in the last few weeks has shown little of that. But can he and the Bucs steal this win on the road with Newton on the sidelines? The simple answer is....no. Anderson is no slouch, otherwise Carolina would have drafted  a youngster to back up Newton by now. Carolina still has a better defense. That will make the difference of a injured and still young and inexperienced Buccaneers offense (and coaching staff). Hence, Carolina wins at home.

Carolina 28 Tampa Bay 20

Bonus Picks:

NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup Playoffs: Race 4: Round of 12 Race 1 at Charlotte:

This is the start of the quarterfinal round of the playoffs with 12 drivers left. As before, if a Chase driver wins this race, which will be the final Saturday night race of the season, barring weather delays, or either of the next two races, he automatically advances to the Round of 8 semifinal round, regardless of points. As before, the four drivers with the fewest points after the Talledega race will be eliminated. Points from earlier wins mean nothing at this point. As such, this race and next week’s race at Kansas are huge, specifically knowing how…unpredictable Talledega can be, being the largest, fastest and most…dangerous track on the circuit. I will discuss that more in two weeks, but the bottom line is: If a Chase driver does not win at Charlotte or Kansas, no driver will be safe at Talledega, no matter what the point lead is…or is not. Below is my thoughts on the remaining drivers, listed in the order I think they will finish in this round of 3 races. Below will be my prediction of who does what at Charlotte on Saturday night (NOW Sunday afternoon/evening due to rain delay from the hurricane):

1.      Martin Truex, Jr.: Thought to be a big underdog in the Chase, he now is the favorite to win it all after winning two of the first 3 Chase races, plus a race in the regular season. He has been consistent, fast and a contender to win every race and has stayed out of trouble. If he and his team can continue to run their race and do it error-free, he should advance.

2.       Kevin Harvick: The former champ and lead Stewart-Hass driver won the other race in the first round and is as good a driver in the Chase as you can find. He is very strong at 1.5 mile length tracks like Charlotte and Kansas and a threat to win one or both races. His team is also strong and consistent. Only really bad luck, surprising major errors during pit stops and mechanical failures (remember Jimmie Johnson in this round last year) could or will prevent Harvick from advancing.

3.       Kyle Busch: The defending champion is in great shape here. Like the others above, the younger Busch brother is strong and a serious threat to win at least one race in this round, if not all three races. It also helps to have all three of his teammates still in the Chase as well. I don’t think all of the Joe Gibbs Racing cars will advance to the Round of 8, but Kyle Busch is the most likely to advance…even if the other 3 (unlikely) do not.

4.       Matt Kenseth: A former (pre-Chase) Cup champion also, Kenseth is experienced in the Chase, but has not had great luck in such and has lost his cool in the past dealing with Joey Logano last year and getting suspended by NASCAR as a result. This year, he has just done his job, but knowing Logano is also in the Chase…what might happen? For all his skill and experience, Kenseth is one that I am concerned about advancing.

5.       Joey Logano: After Truex, Jr., Logano is the first non-champ listed in the standings. Logano is very good and had a fair shot at winning a title last year before getting into a situation with Kenseth and ultimately getting wrecked by him while leading a race which ultimately got him knocked out early. He has the equipment, skill and attitude to win a race in this round. Can he? Maybe. He is also no sure thing to advance, but he might just sneak through on points due to crazy wrecks at Talledega. Somebody will...and if so, Logano is the one who does.

6.       Chase Elliott: The young rookie has had a great year to make the Chase, much less advance to this round without winning a race. It would be huge to win this week or next to assure he advances. Otherwise, he will have problems advancing to the round of 8, even with driving a strong Hendrick car and having six-time champ and teammate Jimmie Johnson also in the round of 12. Those things, I sense will not be enough, especially if he ends up needing a huge finish or win at Talledega to advance since 10 of the other Chase drivers have FAR more Chase AND experience at these tracks than he does. I think his Chase run ends here, unless he gets his first Sprint Cup win in the next 3 races.

7.       Brad Keselowski: The 2012 Cup champ has the same skiils as Logano, his teammate. The difference is that Brad has a bit more Chase experience and also more experience in on and off track battles with other drivers. Brad K. did also win the title with a lame duck car (Dodge) with no teammates in the Chase AND beat a Chase field that included ALL FOUR Hendrick drivers (Kahne and Earnhardt, Jr were the other two in THAT Chase). He even won a race (maybe Talledega?) where he had to either win or be eliminated from the Chase and he did just that. You can never count him out, unless his car is totally wrecked. Brad K. will find a way to advance...again.

8.       Kurt Busch: Older brother of Kyle and also a former (pre-Chase) Cup champ, Busch is good enough to win anywhere. Can his team and equipment, along with some good luck help him advance? Maybe. But him being on a less-funded team, plus him often being in the wrong place at the wrong time and getting wrecked will keep him out of the top-8, NOT his driving skill. And his famous temper has been cool all year. He is a sleeper pick to win this whole thing.

9.       Denny Hamlin: The third JGR car, Hamlin is a Chase veteran who came within one race at Homestead to winning the title (lost to Jimmie Johnson) and has the skill and momentum with his three wins to do well and advance on points. But he has had bad luck and injuries before. I am biased because Hamlin and I are from the same area, but Hamlin will advance to the round of 8 this year.

1     Carl Edwards: Another experienced Chase driver who drives the fourth JGR car, Edwards can win races and advance. However, I just do not see more than 2 JGR drivers advancing. Unless he finds a way to win, I think Edwards will get caught up in wrecks and will not earn enough points to advance.

1    Jimmie Johnson: You can never count out the six-time champ who has mostly dominated the Chase in overall wins and titles. However, his surprise elimination due to a (cheap car) part failing and destroying his engine last year has got to be fueling Johnson and his team this year. Having not won since the spring is a concern, but if any driver can win a Chase race, it is Jimmie…even at Talledega.

Austin Dillon: The other remaining Chase rookie has done well to make the Chase at all by winning a race. However, Dillon’s low experience will hurt and Dillon must win to advance. Unless he gets a lucky rain-shortened win, I just don’t see Dillon advancing to the round of 8, at least not this year. Next year or 2018...very possible.

The race: This race has been affected by the march of Hurricane Matthew whose rains forced the delay of the race to Sunday afternoon. No big deal. The Chase drivers will all be in the mix, but when it is done, I see the rookies, Dillon and Elliott, plus Edwards and Kurt Busch in the bottom 4 after this race.Kenseth, Edwards, Hamlin and Logano won't be far in front of them. If a Chase driver wins here, bet on Jimmie Johnson, either Busch brother, especially Kyle, or Brad Keselowski in a crazy close finish.

WWE No Mercy (Smackdown Live!-exclusive PPV) Match predictions:

Randy Orton beats Bray Wyatt: Orton has not won much since his return from injury. Wyatt is established now and can afford a loss to this future Hall of Famer. The win likely won't be clean, but Orton will get it done.

Baron Corbin beats Jack Swagger: Swagger is not that big of a deal on the roster, and some forget that he did win the World title....years ago. He is not a major contender for the WWE title now, but Corbin could be within a year, and needs this win to help improve his resume. Swagger is a good company man and will oblige.

The Usos win the Smackdown Tag Team titles from Rhyno and Heath Slater: Smackdown needs some bad guys to be champs, if not to offset babyfaces The New Day still being the MNR tag champs. It was a big deal to turn the twins to heels and they need the titles to support a program against babyface American Alpha anyway. Rhyno and Slater was a nice story to win the titles in the tournament and officially put Slater on the Smackdown roster. Mission done. Now it is time for them to fade away and let the established tag teams fight for these titles.

Nikki Bella defeats Carmella: Carmella is young and may be the future in the Womens division for Smackdown...but Nikki needs to win to start her drive toward winning the (Smackdown) Womens title one more time. Bella likely doesn't have much time left in the ring (likely like her boyfriend Cena), and seeing her sister Brie Bella and brother-in-law (Smackdown GM and retired world champ Daniel Bryan) just announce she is pregnant with their first child, may push her to work faster for one more title shot before maybe she and Cena also ride off into the sunset. Just a thought.


The Miz defends his Intercontinental title and "ends" Dolph Ziggler's career: The rumors have said Ziggler is going to lose here so he can rest and recharge and return with a new gimmick in a few months, likely at or just after Royal Rumble in time for The Road to Wrestlemania...and I see no reason to believe otherwise. Miz without the title is basically just nothing for WWE or Smackdown Live...and that is worse than Ziggler right now. The two are close off screen, both being from Cleveland, so a title vs career match makes sense if Ziggler is gone...for a while or for good. This is a match I will watch for sure.

Becky Lynch defends her Smackdown Womens Title over Alexa Bliss: Bliss may be good, but she is still mostly unknown after being drafted from NXT. Lynch is a fan favorite and has taken too much shit to win her first major title to lose it in her first defense. Maybe she will at Survivor Series but now here. But this won't be a must see match...sorry.

John Cena upsets Dean Ambrose and AJ Styles to win the WWE World Title: Cena is supposed to be going off WWE TV shortly to go film the second season of his reality show "American Grit". But..still hanging over his head is that...Cena is almost 40 and may only have a short time left as a full-time wrestler, especially with all of his non-WWE stuff going on. He is not the main focus of Smackdown nor the WWE. If Cena is to tie Ric Flair's record of 16 World Title wins, now is the time for his chances are much better in a Triple Threat environment. Ambrose and Styles are the hot things now and for them to battle each other in the fall, Cena needs to be out of the way. Just because Cena wins, does NOT mean he would hold the title for long. I see one last shocking upset win for Cena to be The Champ now...and then we can see what happens in 2017 when he returns (be the Undertaker's likely last opponent at Wrestlemania 33 next April?) Just a thought.