My picks for Week 16 of the NFL season.... and some of my college football bowl picks too!

My picks for Week 16 of the NFL season (based on my thoughts, my research and what I think ONLY!):

Disclamer: These are my picks and opinions only. If you make picks and/or bet money, favors or whatever based on what is listed below with whomever or wherever, that is on you. If you win, great! Let me know (or even send me a small cut of the profits...lol!) If not, don't bitch. These picks does have 50/50 odds. Better than the lottery. If some team chokes a game due to..whatever...not my fault. I will be mad too. Maybe!

Disclaimer done: Let the games begin!

This week was not great on picks, but I somehow broke even (8-8), but the bonus picks were good, but not no-brainers, most of them. Let’s see how I do.

This will be a crazy, but very important weekend. Thursday Night concluded. This is the final week for Sunday night (NBC) and Monday Night Football (ESPN) for the 2013 season. Both games of those games will have playoff implications for at least one of the teams involved, depending on other results. Enjoy!

For most fantasy leagues, the finals (or semifinals) are THIS WEEK! Good luck to everyone!
Week 16 Games:

Miami at Buffalo: This will be a game that no one cares much about, other than fans of each team and fantasy football players who have players in this game. However, this game means a LOT for the Dolphins. Win out and the Dolphins are still in a position to slip into the playoffs as the second AFC wild-card in two possible ways. Buffalo is trying to playing spoiler, but I have my doubts. The Dolphins stunned everyone by winning in cold and windy Pittsburgh. Buffalo may well be the same or worse. Can the warm-weather Dolphins steal another cold-weather win, which will be wet and rainy and not snowy? Yes. Will they make the playoffs? Maybe.

Miami 24 Buffalo 21 (OT)

New Orleans at Carolina: This game is for the NFC South title. The teams are tied in record, but New Orleans has the tiebreaker via their win over the Panthers last week in the Superdome. Unfortunately, St. Louis upset the Saints in their dome last week while Carolina beat down the Jets at home. Hence, Carolina must WIN this game to have a chance to clinch the division and a top-4 seed by winning next week’s finale versus Atlanta. If New Orleans wins, they win the division, even if they lose to Tampa next week. Period. A tie means it goes to next week to decide the division (both teams win OR both teams loses, Saints win the division, otherwise, team that wins is the division champ and the two seed, loser is a wild-card and plays somewhere during wild-card weekend). Carolina’s D is tough and it is tougher at home. But can you really bet against Drew Brees and these Saints anywhere outside other than a bad weather situation? I have to go with the experienced team on the road. I will say, if Carolina gets in the playoffs, they will be a tough out, no matter where the game is.

New Orleans 30 Carolina 27

Indianapolis at Kansas City: Both teams are in the playoffs, so this may be a preview for a matchup in either the wild-card or divisional round (or less likely, AFC conference championship). The weather could be nasty, which helps KC. Both teams are hoping Denver somehow loses to Houston, which could help them both, but let’s be real. Momentum is the name of the game and the Colts need it more. They also have a slight chance to move up from the 4 seed if they win out and others lose. The Colts have beaten most of the top AFC seeds, except the Bengals so adding to their confidence is certainly good. KC can win ugly, at home or on the road. The Colts can’t and that defense cannot stop all of the KC weapons if they don’t make mistakes and those slow starts cannot be ignored. Home team wins.

Kansas City 23 Indianapolis 21

New England at Baltimore:  The Patriots failed to clinch the AFC East title and a playoff berth last week. Okay. They lost TE Rob Gronkowski for the year with a nasty knee injury. Now, they go to Baltimore who are fighting for their playoff lives but now control their destiny after a miracle win in Detroit on MNF. Two more wins and they are in the playoffs and hosting a playoff game. The Patriots may just win the East if Miami loses or ties, regardless of the result of this game. But for this text, let’s assume the Dolphins win and are still in the race for the division. Baltimore could lose or tie (if Cincinnati does as well) and still win at Cincinnati in the finale to win the division (or clinch a wild card if Miami and SD lose). NE needs one more win or tie to win the East (again) and don’t forget about the seeding. NE needs home field in the playoffs, especially now. Baltimore will take this game somehow…and they are too experienced and scary to be messed with in the playoffs. Anywhere. Period. If they get a home game…watch out!

Baltimore 30 New England 29

Denver at Houston: UGH. I might actually skip watching this game on my NFL Sunday Ticket Max. Never thought I would say that. But this game does matter for the Broncos. This game matters for the Broncos to clinch the AFC West and a top-2 seed in the playoffs. Win and its done. Lose and they could fall to a 5 seed if KC wins out. Denver does not want to have that hanging over their heads going to Oakland in the finale. Trust me. Houston just wants (and needs) a win. Lose and they would all but clinch the top pick in the May draft, unless the three win teams win. I want some intrigue next week. I am taking the big upset with Houston. Whatever you do, do not take Denver and the (big) spread. Remember Jacksonville? Right.

Houston 27 Denver 24 (OT)

Minnesota at Cincinnati: This game will be weird. The last thing the Bengals need to see is Minnesota who has (to an extent) screwed up playoff chances for 3 teams after basically being eliminated from playoff contention. If they hadn’t started 0-4 and something like 1-7, these Vikings might have been contending for a division title right now! Anyway, the Bengals are in trouble. Baltimore has rallied to one game behind them. Cincinnati must win this game and hope Baltimore loses versus NE, who the Bengals trail in the playoff race by one game (and the Bengals have the tiebreaker) to prevent having their finale at home against these Ravens to be for the division title. Worse yet, if Cincinnati doesn’t win another game and Baltimore and Miami wins their final 2 games, Miami kicks Cincinnati out of the playoffs entirely due to the ultimate tiebreaker (losing on MNF to the Dolphins in overtime via a safety weeks ago!) Minnesota has been the ultimate spoiler of late, and cannot be taken lightly. You would think this will be a easy Bengals win outdoors, especially IF all-world RB Adrian Peterson (and/or his backup, Toby Gerhart) does not play (but Peterson is looking like he will), but after watching two no-name RBs replace them and Minnesota ran up 48 on the Eagles last week, would you want to face this team ANYWHERE right now? I didn’t think so. Just because I want to see some CRAZY winner-take-all games in Week 17, and I am not messing with Viking mojo right now, I am taking the upset. I’d pray for snow in Cincinnati this Sunday (but it might be rain instead), if I were the Bengals…but then again….would it matter? And would it help?

Minnesota 24 Cincinnati 21 (OT)

New York Giants at Detroit: Okay, this will be an interesting game. The Giants are out of the playoff chase, but will play tough. Detroit lost a heartbreaker at home to Baltimore and now are staring at being out of the playoffs entirely. Detroit must win this game and the finale at Minnesota to have a chance. Lose and if Chicago and/or Green Bay (again without Aaron Rodgers) win, Detroit is done.  After blowing 4 of their last 5, Detroit seems done. But they did beat the Bears twice, Green Bay (without Rodgers) on Thanksgiving to end a 10 year drought and rally to stun Dallas by one in the final seconds. Detroit QB Matthew Stafford has proven to be clutch at times and not choke games nearly as often as Dallas QB Tony Romo, for example. Surely, with everything on the line and the best receiver currently in the game on your side, the Lions will find a way to get this win and hope Philadelphia and Pittsburgh win as well. I think they will. Next week at Minnesota….stay tuned.

Detroit 27 New York Giants 24

Cleveland at New York Jets: This game means little except pride for both teams. Will one of these coaches be fired at the end of the year? Maybe. Will they play hard? I hope so. Cleveland and the Jets put up a fight this year and they may have some hope for 2014. I am taking Cleveland because I think they will want it more. That trade to get Indy’s first round pick in 2014 (though it will be a late rounder) is looking pretty wise now. Maybe another snow game? Let’s hope so.

Cleveland 27 New York Jets 24

Tennessee at Jacksonville: This is another of those no-one cares games. The Titans fly to Florida again to face the formerly 0-8 Jacksonville Jaguars. The Titans have some weapons but injuries and a tough schedule screwed them. Same with the Jags, but they have a bit less talent. I am taking the home team. I will say this. Both teams are happy they will not be finishing last in their division now. Right????

Jacksonville 20 Tennessee 17 (OT)

Tampa Bay at St. Louis:   Another mostly meaningless game for two non-playoff teams. Tampa looks better after the 0-8 start, but they will not be able to do much here. St. Louis put up a hell of a fight trying to make the playoffs. This will be a dangerous team in 2014. But so might Tampa, if they get their off the field mess in order. The Rams’ defense is tougher and will do well at home. I am taking the Rams.

St. Louis 28 Tampa Bay 23

Pittsburgh at Green Bay: This game was supposed to be a big marquee game when the schedule came out in April. Injuries and other things can do a lot to those ideas. Green Bay is a half game out of the NFC North lead. Pittsburgh has a WTF miracle chance at a wild-card. Green Bay is in the playoffs if they win out. Can they win two more without Aaron Rodgers, who does not look likely to play this Sunday, and maybe not in the finale at Chicago either? I don’t know. Green Bay, ties won’t help, but it would hurt a lot less if it happened here. After last week’s GB comeback, I cannot see the Steelers stealing this one at Lambeau Field. Packers survive to the final week.

Green Bay 24 Pittsburgh 21 (OT)

Arizona at Seattle: Arizona must win to keep slimming wild-card hopes alive. The Seahawks just want to clinch the NFC West and the top NFC seed and move on and not wait for the Niners to lose another game (if they do). Seattle is losing one of their defensive backs for a suspension that will be appealed. That will hurt more later, but I think Seattle wins this week either way. Need some momentum, Seattle. Hope the pressure isn’t getting to them. Home field alone will not get you to the Super Bowl!

Seattle 31 Arizona 27

Dallas at Washington: This game will be weird, but still HUGE. The Eagles STILL lead the NFC Least by a game over Dallas after both teams choked winnable games versus Minnesota and Green Bay, respectably, last Sunday. With the Eagles game versus Chicago flexed to Sunday night, Dallas knows they MUST win this game and hope for a Bears win to send it to a winner take all game next week versus Philadelphia in Dallas next Sunday. Oh, and it is the Redskins they must do this against. Rivalry games are big regardless of records. This is one of the biggest in sports. The names of the back of the jerseys mean less than the logos on the helmets. Period. With that said…..both teams seem to find new ways to lose games. The difference is that Dallas and their QB Tony Romo has had bigger…and crazier ways to lose. The Detroit comeback. The INT with 2 minutes to go against Denver. And now, the blown lead versus Green Bay (WITHOUT Aaron Rodgers at QB for the Pack!!). With these losses along with the many others in Romo’s career, I am surprised he still has (black) hair on his head! Now, the rest of the story. The Redskins are a mess, and will be for at least the next few years. But so is Dallas, but it is not quite as…sudden or as obvious. Regardless of who the QB is for either team, this is a big game. Dallas has the weapons to win on offense…period. But Washington’s defense has sucked all year and Dallas’ is not much better, mostly due to age and injuries. Considering the records and the turmoil, I would take Dallas easily. But a healthier (at that time) Dallas squad had trouble beating these Redskins with the same bad D back in Dallas weeks ago. And after the collapse versus Green Bay at HOME, I have less faith in the play callers for the ‘Boys, much less Romo. They hung with Denver, whose D is not much better, but couldn’t beat down a lot of teams that they should have. Revenge and hatred what it is, I am taking Washington to win and virtually snuff out the playoff dreams of Dallas…for the second year in a row. Especially not now with Washington LB London Fletcher now planning to retire after these final two games. The Redskins will want to win the final home game of 2013 for Fletcher. And Dallas cannot blame Robert Griffin III (or maybe even Romo this time) for it if it happens. And it makes a nice story.

Washington 28 Dallas 27

Oakland at San Diego: San Diego is one back in the wild-card race and could steal the 6 seed if Baltimore and Miami falter this week and next. But they must get by the Raiders first to have a chance to do it. Oakland is beat up and injured, but they are not nearly as bad as the Redskins and a few other teams…lol. More importantly, the Raiders beat the Chargers in Oakland in the game that was moved to late Sunday night weeks ago, due to the Oakland A’s playing in the AL playoffs the day before (the Raiders needed time to convert the stadium from baseball back to football). SD has been hot since, but they really wish they had that game back (or maybe the MNF game in Week 1 when they choked to the then-good Texans!) Big mistake. Raiders are playing for pride, and having the chance to knock the Chargers (officially) out of the playoffs will motivate them. Raiders win. And next year…..beware the Silver and Black!!!!!!

Oakland 31 San Diego 27

Chicago at Philadelphia: Sunday Night Football on NBC: Well, this is an interesting one. This game was flexed into the Sunday night slot (third and final one for the year), due to its playoff importance. Bottom line….if Dallas loses or ties at Washington earlier in the day, Philadelphia wins the NFC East by beating the Bears. If Dallas wins and/or Philadelphia loses, they play each other in Dallas in Week 17, winner takes all. For Chicago, if Detroit AND Green Bay both lose, the Bears win the NFC North if they win this game. A tie would hurt the Bears more, for they host Green Bay in the final game next week. There can be no three way tie, and the Bears lose the tiebreaker to Detroit anyway if those two finished tied. Who wins? Chicago needs the win...a win means little to Philadelphia now. But the Bears don't have enough explosive offense to hang with the Eagles. Eagles win.

Philadelphia 28 Chicago 24

Monday Night Football on ESPN. Note the 830pm start time. Final one of the season.

Atlanta at San Francisco: This is NOT the best and most important game of the season on MNF. This is still an important game for several reasons. This is the final home regular season game for the Niners at Candlestick Park. The Niners must win to potentially clinch a wild-card berth. If Seattle doesn’t beat Arizona Sunday, the Niners can win and pressure Seattle for the division title, though such a scenario would give Arizona a final chance to steal the playoff berth from the Niners. Atlanta is playing out the season, and that is all. They will fight. The Niners need this win too much and they don’t want to close Candlestick with a loss (figuring there will have no chance to host a playoff game here). Niners win.

San Francisco 31 Atlanta 24

Bonus picks: I am giving my picks on the final BCS bowl games in the non-playoff format. I will list the ones for the next few days now and the rest, including the BCS bowls, next week.

Saturday December 21^st:
New Mexico Bowl: Not much to say here. Taking the team from the lower tier conference because…I can.
Colorado State 30 Washington State 27

Las Vegas Bowl: USC is overrated, and I have no love for them. Plus their defense is shaky. Fresno State is tough, period. That is why they are ranked higher. Conference affiliation does not always matter.


Fresno State 30 USC 27



Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Really? They make a bowl for almost anything. Again, taking the underdog with the tough run defense. Much harder to win if you cannot run the ball. Buffalo wins.


Buffalo 27 San Diego State 24

New Orleans Bowl: Tulane is playing this bowl at home…how often does that happen? First bowl in 11 years. But they face the two-time defending champion of this bowl, who isn’t traveling far either. It will be close, but L-Lafayette pulls this one out.

Louisiana-Lafayette 28 Tulane 27

December 23: Beef ‘O’Brady’s Bowl: What? This will be a passing show it seems. Two good QBs in the dome. I feel bad for the defenses. Taking the smaller Southern school in this one. This may be one of the most entertaining bowls…period.

East Carolina 41 Ohio 38

Christmas Eve: Hawaii Bowl: Who wouldn’t want to spend Christmas in Hawaii? And play football? Cool! This is another offensive show with little defense to be had. Take lots of pictures guys. I am taking Boise State because having the third best passing offense is great Oregon State, but you have to have some running game and defense, and you have to score, too. Sorry.

Boise State 45 Oregon State 42

December 26: Little Caesar’s Bowl: Pizza Pizza! (I just had to say that!) Pittsburgh is now in the ACC (welcome!), but I am doubting this team can score easily on the 5^th best SCORING defense in Bowling Green. If you can’t score, you can’t win. Bowling Green wins.

Bowling Green 23 Pittsburgh 20

December 26: Pointsettia Bowl: Hey, I am not tying that long name out! Utah State plays good defense. But they get Northern Illinois who is surely upset after choking their undefeated season and BCS berth in the MAC title game. I see a beat-down here. Plus, I like huskies…lol.

Northern Illinois 33 Utah State 28

December 27:
Military Bowl: I like Maryland fine. But sorry, you dropped the ACC for the Big Ten (more like the Wannabe 15 or however many is in there now) for money. Enjoy the money…you will regret the loss in prestige. Marshall is no joke, either. Marshall wins
Marshall 30 Maryland 28

Texas Bowl: Syracuse is now in the ACC, too (welcome!). But their football team BARELY became bowl-eligible at the buzzer. I have a soft spot for Minnesota and their health-challenged coach, Jerry Kill. I hope he is okay and can coach this game and beyond without issue. I am taking Minnesota.
Minnesota 27 Syracuse 23

Fight Hunger Bowl: This is another big offensive matchup. Washington is now seeking a new coach after losing their coach to Southern Cal. Both teams will have offense. But like I said earlier, I like huskies…lol. And Washington has better offense than BYU. Huskies win in a close one.
Washington 28 BYU 27

December 28:
Pinstripe Bowl: Right. Does the Yankees need the money that bad that they had to start a bowl at Yankee Stadium? Wow. Anyway….Notre Dame comes here after a so-so year to face Rutgers, who is getting into bowls regularly after not doing so for so long. Again…let’s see the underdog win.
Rutgers 24 Notre Dame 21

Russell Athletic Bowl: Miami looked good in the ACC for a while…until they ran into Number 1 Florida State. Took care of that. Louisville thought they had a shot at a national title. Central Florida stopped that. This will be a good game. I love the ACC, but I am taking Louisville.
Louisville 30 Miami (FL) 28

Belk Bowl: Seriously? Duke played in (this) a bowl last year? Don’t remember that. Whatever. Cincinnati returns as defending champ of this bowl, but they get UNC this time, who rallied from 1-5 to be bowl eligible. I see UNC keeping the comeback going and winning this one with a decided home-state advantage.

North Carolina 30 Cincinnati 27

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Sigh. Not going there. Michigan had a good start and fizzled out. Kansas State has finished strong after a poor start. This is the first meeting between these schools in football. Let’s hope the game is good and they don’t have to wait another 134 years to play again. But I am taking the hotter team, Kansas State.

Kansas State 34 Michigan 28

I will stop here and reveal my picks for the remaining bowls next week. Okay, you can guess at least one of my choices…at least you had better if you know me! See you next week!

AFC Playoff Standings:
Teams that are eliminated from the playoffs and will not have a winning season: Houston (2-12), Cleveland (4-10), Jacksonville (4-10), Oakland (4-10), Buffalo (5-9), Tennessee (5-9)

Teams that are mathematically still in playoff hunt for now: New York Jets (6-8) and Pittsburgh (6-8)

Teams that have clinched a berth:
Denver (11-3): AFC West co-leader, clinched wild-card for now. Wins AFC West with next win OR KC loss or tie OR finishes season tied with KC via ultimate tiebreaker. Will be 5 seed ONLY if they lose or ties one or both remaining games and KC wins out.

Kansas City (11-3): AFC West co-leader, clinched wild-card for now. Wins AFC West with 2 wins AND if Denver loses OR ties one of their final two games. Otherwise, will be 5 seed in playoffs, travel to 4 seed in wild-card round. Period.

Indianapolis (9-5): AFC South champ, current 4 seed (cannot be any worse); unlikely to move up, but still possible depending on results. Has tiebreaker over Denver and New England. Does not have tiebreaker over Cincinnati.

Teams likely to be in the playoffs:
New England (10-4): AFC East leader, clinches division with win OR Miami loss or tie; current 2 seed: will win top seed if they finish in a tie with AFC West champ or better. Can fall to 3 seed if NE finishes in tie with Cincinnati, due to head to head loss. Can fall to 4 seed if NE loses out and Indianapolis wins out and/or finishes in tie with Bengals for 3 spot if Colts pass them both.

The Pack:
Cincinnati (9-5): AFC North leader, clinches division with win and/or Baltimore loss or tie THIS WEEK. If BOTH teams win or lose in week 16, Bengals must win finale at home versus Ravens to win division. Otherwise, they are out of the playoffs if they lose out AND Miami wins out per ultimate tie-breaker. Current 3 seed, can move up to two seed if they finish in a tie with NE. Has tiebreaker over Indianapolis and NE.

Baltimore (8-6): 2nd in North, current 6 seed by tiebreaker: Win out and will be in playoffs (as likely 2^nd wild card). Wins North if Baltimore wins out and Cincinnati loses out.

Miami (8-6): 2nd in East, tied for 6 seed with Baltimore. Must win out AND Baltimore loses one game AND does not win the North OR Cincinnati loses out and loses the division title to win wild-card berth.

San Diego (7-7): 3rd in West, 1 game and tiebreaker out of 6 seed. Must win out and get miracle help (Baltimore, Miami loses out)  to get in playoffs. Not likely.

NFC Playoff Standings:
Teams that are eliminated from the playoffs and will not have a winning season:
Washington (3-11), Atlanta (4-10), Tampa Bay (4-10) Minnesota (4-9-1), New York Giants (5-9), St. Louis (6-8)

Teams that have clinched a berth:
Seattle (11-3): NFC West leader, clinched wild-card for now. Will clinch division with next win or tie or loss/tie by SF/Arizona (division) Clinches NFC top seed with next win or tie (has tiebreaker over Carolina AND New Orleans). Falls to 5 seed ONLY if Seattle loses out and SF wins this week and (wins or ties at Arizona in Week 17 that would eliminate Cardinals).

Teams likely to be in the playoffs:
New Orleans (10-4): NFC South co-leader, clinches division with win at Carolina losses, current 2 seed; will win top seed ONLY if they win the division AND finish with a better record than Seattle. Clinch playoff berth with next Arizona loss/tie.

Carolina (10-4): NFC South co-leader, current 5 seed, clinches division ONLY if they win out and New Orleans loses 2 games; will win top seed ONLY if they win the division AND finish with a better record than Seattle. Clinch playoff berth with next Arizona loss/tie.

San Francisco (10-4): 2nd in West: current 6 seed by 1 game over Arizona. Wins wild card with win and/or Arizona loss/tie in Week 16 OR win at Arizona in Week 17. Wins West ONLY if they win out AND Seattle loses final 2 games.


The Pack:
Arizona (9-5): 3rd in West, 1 game behind SF, Carolina and NO for wild-card spots. Must win out (including over SF in final game) and have SF and/or South 2^nd place team loses out to get wild-card.

The teams listed below CANNOT make the playoffs via the wild-card (cannot catch SF and Carolina/New Orleans), Hence, team must win division to make playoffs:

Philadelphia (8-6): East leader, 1 game lead over Dallas. current 3 seed. Wins division with win over Chicago AND Dallas loss OR tie at Washington. Has tiebreaker over Detroit for 3 seed. Clinches such if they finish in tie with Detroit IF they win the North.


Chicago (8-6): North leader, but has NO tiebreaker over Detroit; 1/2 game lead over Green Bay. Wins division with 2 wins (hosts GB in Week 17) AND Detroit loses 1 game.

Green Bay (7-6-1): 2nd in North, 1/2 game behind Chicago; wins division ONLY if they win out 

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 Detroit (7-7): 3rd in North, 1 game behind Chicago, 1/2 game behind Green Bay, but has tiebreaker over Chicago AND Dallas (but not Philadelphia). Wins division by winning out AND if Chicago and GB lose this week, making Green Bay/Chicago in Week 17 moot if Detroit beats Minnesota. North winner is likely 4 seed.

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Think my picks suck? Send me a reply and tell me why! Good luck to everyone.
NFL picks: 118-103-1 after 13 weeks; 28-21 on bonus picks; Total: 146-124-1 overall (as of December 21).