2015 NFL Picks Week 4...plus picks for NASCAR Chase Race 3 at Dover

NFL Picks: Week Four

Fantasy football owners: Bye weeks begin NOW!!!! But only two teams are on bye. But, also note that we have a game in London this week with a 930am EDT start time on Sunday. Please prepare and recheck your rosters accordingly.

Last week's picks: 12-4...Much better..better than I thought! Season: 23-25....getting back up there.

Bonus picks: 3-1  Total: 7-5

I was right with my NASCAR picks, and Harvick came so close to winning but ran out of gas with less than 3 laps and lost some points. He is just outside the cutoff for the Challenger round, but he does not have to win to advance. Dover will be crazy, though I hope the approaching hurricane doesn't case a race postponement, for if they can't race Sunday, I don't think Monday or Tuesday will be options either. NASCAR might be wise to move the race up to Saturday night, perhaps? My NFL picks were real good. We will see if I can continue that this week, but the noted weather will affect some games on Sunday...but not the one in London..lol.

Teams on Bye:

1.       New England (3-0): What is there to say about the defending champions? After regaining the services of QB Tom Brady just before the opener, New England has been doing well. They did smash Jacksonville (that was expected), but they had to fight to beat Pittsburgh at home and Buffalo on the road. For once, everyone is healthy and they look good. BUT…the schedule gets harder from here, and knowing they have 13 straight games after this, and everyone else in the AFC other than the Titans will have a later bye could be trouble if anyone important gets hurt for any serious time, which has happened to so many teams (especially contenders in both conferences already). Still, the leaders and head of this team has been here before and nothing beats experience. No one will say this team could take a run at an undefeated (regular) season right now, but anything is possible. But this early bye may not help on that.

2.       Tennessee (1-2): The Titans are sitting in a surprising 4-way tie in the AFC South and they get to rest first while the other teams try to even their record (at most either one or two will, barring ties).  Rookie 2^nd overall pick QB Marcus Mariota has already shown he has more game than one thinks. But this team still has many holes to fill. No one expects this team to contend for a AFC South title. But if Houston and especially Indianapolis continue to struggle and/or suffer some of the same injuries or worse to vital players that other teams (Dallas, Pittsburgh to name two) have, who knows? Stranger things have happened in today's parity-driven NFL.

Thursday Night Football on CBS/NFL Network: Baltimore at Pittsburgh: I have been having issues on picking this game. You know the rivalry.  Here is where it gets tough: Both are on a short week, Baltimore is traveling to Pittsburgh desperate for a win, having fallen to 0-3 for the first time in franchise history. A fourth conference (and second division) loss this early will all but bury Baltimore as far as virtually all tie-breakers are concerned. Pittsburgh is hosting, but must play on a short week (and a few after this) with veteran backup QB Michael Vick with starter Ben Roethlisberger (knee ligament sprain, bone bruise) out for several weeks. Vick is no Big Ben but he has talents and is a experienced former NFL starter. His diminished yet still dangerous mobility and being a lefty (most QBs, especially starters like Big Ben are right-handed) can throw off a lot of defenses some. Such can help a Pittsburgh offensive line which is already weakened with C Maurice Pouncey gone. However, the offensive weapons, especially WR Antonio Brown and HB Le'Veon Bell, just back from suspension (WR Martavius Bryant will also be back from his suspension next week) and TE Heath Miller are still here. Vick can do a lot of damage with that. 

Who wins? There are few teams in the NFL that can rally (quickly) from losing their starting QB in a game. Pittsburgh is one of them, especially with head coach Mike Tomlin (what's up, Nupe!) at the helm. Michael Vick can be better than virtually all current backup QBs right now, but his weaknesses are still there. However, the weapons around him will stymie most teams. Since Baltimore has lost their defensive leader (Terrell Suggs, Achilles) for the year and the offense is not totally rolling, the exploits of WR Steve Smith, Sr. notwithstanding, can you really call Baltimore one of the teams that can still stop this Steeler offense? I don't think so, and especially not a short week and IN Pittsburgh. We won't even talk about the kicking game at Heinz Field and Baltimore PK Justin Tucker is one of the best around. Baltimore, normally I would go for you, but not right now, not under these circumstances. While I think Vick will have a uneven first start, at best, Pittsburgh overall has too much for Baltimore to handle away from Baltimore. I have to take the Steelers. Just make sure Tomlin does not "accidentally" slip onto the field while watching the jumbo-tron during a Ravens kick return down the Pittsburgh sideline again.

Pittsburgh 29 Baltimore 24

Sunday’s Games:

New York Jets at Miami from London: 930am EDT start on CBS: This is the first of the three games from London for this season. Both teams know they need to win to stay in the AFC East race while the undefeated Patriots are on bye this week. Miami has not looked that great all year, even in their opening day win at Washington. Worse yet, losing a home date for this game doesn't help matters, especially if they lose. The free agent spending, plus the contract extension of QB Ryan Tannehill has not produced much so far. That needs to change fast, with the Miami coaches on the hot seat. The young Jets made a splash with  two early wins, but they haven't faced New England nor Buffalo yet. They are doing it without injured QB Geno Smith. His replacement Ryan Fitzpatrick has done well so far, but how long can he keep it up? Either way, such is not good for young Smith's future with this team. But that is for later on.

Who wins? Both need a win to stay in the playoff race, especially with some of the AFC powers struggling and surprising teams rising up. The loser of this games, especially if it is Miami, will be in a deep hole that will be very hard to get out of. In my opinion, Miami's offense is still a work in progress at best and the defense looks tough, but has yet to prove it, especially against a truly tough offense. They won't do it here either. The Jets have something going, and with rookie coach Todd Bowles, they very simply have nothing to lose by going for it all, unlike so many in Miami. Jets win again.

New York Jets 29 Miami 20

St. Louis at Arizona: The Rams seem to be in big trouble. After upsetting the Seahawks at home, they have choked away wins at Washington and against the Steelers, even after they lost their all-world QB for half the game and backup Michael Vick did nothing (we won't talk about the fire before the game...lol.). The Ram defense seems somewhat good..at times, but the offense sucks. Injuries haven't helped. Arizona, however, is on fire!!!! We are now seeing what this team can do with a healthy QB Carson Palmer, even without a steady running game. This team, along with Green Bay are now the NFC front-runners...as long as Palmer stays healthy. However, the Cardinals know they must rack up as many early wins as they can for the schedule is much tougher from here. But they know that their toughest games...the final two versus the Packers and Seattle are both at HOME makes a big difference (being home for Christmas AND New Years with the potential of staying home for a potential first playoff game is BIG). But that is then, this is now. The Cardinals must take care of business and not look ahead for 3 of their next 4 are away from home in the Eastern Time Zone before their bye.

Who wins? The Rams have tough D. They have a good coach. But they don't have everything together yet. The Cardinals are ready to go, and making the playoffs (barely) last  year gives them a experience that the Rams do not have. Plus, these birds are real tough at home. And after the beatdown they laid on the Niners, how can the Rams do much better with no offense? Cardinals win again.

Arizona 33 St. Louis 19

 Carolina at Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay is young. They have weapons but do not yet have it all together on how to use them yet. Carolina is 3-0 despite having not that much of a passing game, having lost their best WR for the year, and having a so-so running game, mostly due to QB Cam Newton. The defense may be better with the trade for DE Jared Allen from Chicago. But they are not blowing out teams because they can't. They need more to compete with the Green Bays and the Arizonas and the Atlantas of the NFL. The good news is...they probably won't need that this week, even on the road. The bad news is the schedule gets nasty from here after next week's bye including at Seattle in 2 weeks, then Eagles, Colts, and Packers back to back to back at home, at Dallas on Thanksgiving and 4 division games in the final 5 games including the home and home with co-division leader Atlanta in Week 14 (home) and 16 (road). If they have some offensive magic they haven't found yet...better find today.

Who wins? This is a trap game, but Tampa may not be able to bring their talent together to make it work, even at home. Carolina is tougher than the Saints or the Titans, and Newton is a rare talent at QB who is hell on any defense,,even good ones. Tampa doesn't have that so Carolina wins, but it will be close again, which is not good.

Carolina 28 Tampa Bay 20

Cleveland at San Diego: Both teams got beat up last week. Cleveland is shakier after allowing QB Josh McCown to take over against Oakland though QB Johnny Manziel had won his first game as a starter the previous week. McCown was not bad, but he wasn't that great. The Chargers just could not stop surging RB Adrian Peterson in Minnesota, but that is not a diss to San Diego, since those Vikings can be scary at home. Now the Chargers can do the same to a confused Browns team who could not stop the young Raiders attack. What can the Browns do against the powerful Chargers pass game led by experienced QB Philip Rivers? Not much, I think.

Who wins? Cleveland is no road juggernaut. I can't see them going west and winning. Rivers is too good at home, even with no real running game (yet). The improving Cleveland defense could not stop Oakland at home, but other teams will be saying the same real soon. The Chargers will win going away. Period. Not much else to say, even if Manziel was the starter.

San Diego 33 Cleveland 24

Green Bay at San Francisco: Green Bay looks real good so far. But we all know that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is a bit more mortal away from Lambeau Field. Before the mass exodus of players and coaches last offseason, these Niners looked dangerous. This might have been a big game...but not now. The Niners are playing for pride, but with their division rivals also looking up to the undefeated Cardinals, the young Niners may be thinking something...but after the beatdown at Arizona last week....not so fast.

Who wins? Arizona did bad things to the Niners last week, worse than Pittsburgh did the week before. In some ways, Green Bay is better than both of them. Seriously, what chance does the Niners have of winning this game, unless Rodgers and more go down too? Right. That is what I thought. Green Bay wins again.

Green Bay 34 San Francisco 17

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: This is another of those in-division tilts that should be a mis-match. But not right now. The Colts are in a hole, but the entire division is in the same hole. The Colts are the best positioned to escape such the fastest, but QB Andrew Luck has issues. Can he continue to fix them against the younger Jaguars? As of now, I am not convinced. But the Colts have won their last 15 division games. Will this be 16?

Who wins? The Jaguars have some talent but not enough to stop the Colts at home. Luck needs to start playing better now or the Colts are in trouble since this team is all about Luck, and the rest of the team has not been stepping up. This is a trap game, but not so much. Lose this game and the season is not over. But a 1-3 start is not good for anyone, especially this team...even in this division. Colts win..barely.

Indianapolis 29 Jacksonville 27

Kansas City at Cincinnati: Cincinnati has been doing well. but one would say that is in spite of the errors this team has had since the opener. The Chiefs could actually test the Bengals for they are not that bad. They just do not play up to that talent. Sorry. Same could be said of the Bengals in the playoffs. Still, this could be a fun game for some. The Bengals can afford a loss, as far as the division is concerned, but the schedule is nasty the rest of the way. The Bengals need to stay on the gas..if they can.

Who wins? I am not sold on the Bengals. This is a big trap game with this Chiefs team being a dangerous squad. The Chiefs have a pass rush that will foul up most QBs and Bengals QB Andy Dalton has his bad moments. I am taking a upset here and going with the Chiefs. I just see a upset coming. Chiefs will get the win they should have had against Denver.

Kansas City 31 Cincinnati 28 (OT)

New York Giants at Buffalo: This is a must win for Buffalo. The Bills looked good last week, but with their best weapons (LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins) out with injuries, Bills Nations should be real worried. The Giants are not great or as skilled, especially with WR Victor Cruz out again. But the Giants have had extra time to prepare for these Bills and they do have experience and WR Odell Beckham, Jr. A upset could happen.

Who wins? The Bills could be a AFC power soon....but not yet, if they can't keep their best players on the field. This is a trap game and a problem with Watkins and McCoy on the field. Without them, Big Blue can and will come in and steal a game the Bills need to win. Somehow. That is what the Giants do...with or without Cruz. I am taking the upset here, too. Giants win.

New York Giants 29 Buffalo 27

Minnesota at Denver: Denver is escaped with three wins and are back home. But the dangerous Vikings come to town with young QB Teddy Bridgewater and a rejuvenated RB Adrian Peterson. The thin air of Denver will help, but the Broncos offense has no run game at all. How do you control the clock with no run game? 50 short throws from Denver QB Peyton Manning will not do it. Minnesota can run and control the clock. Manning cannot beat you on the sidelines, either. This will be a interesting game.

Who wins? The Broncos have gotten lucky twice, but the Vikings present a challenge that Denver cannot stop without turnovers. I don't know if the Broncos can score a lot, and Manning is..you know. Minnesota is starting to believe they can do something this year. A win in Denver goes a long way towards that, and I think they get it. Vikings win.

Minnesota 28 Denver 27

Houston at Atlanta:  Atlanta is had comebacks in every game this year to make it to 3-0. Houston's offense is just not good. If injured RB Arian Foster can play (I think he won't this week), that helps...but Atlanta has too much firepower on offense, especially in the dome. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is more than dangerous at home and the running game may be back to go with the pasing team. Even a great defense can't stop everyone every week, especially without a offense to match. Sorry.

Who wins? The defense is good....but the offense, even with Foster is not so much for Houston. I don't think much of the Atlanta defense, especially against the run, but Houston's defense will get worn out trying to these Falcons, and they will falter later and the Atlanta confidence grows as they try to keep place with Carolina and the other NFC unbeatens. Atlanta wins again.

Atlanta 33 Houston 21

 Philadelphia at Washington: Simply put....not many points here. The DC area has had rain all week. That shaky field at FedEx Field will likely resemble a mud pit. Muddy games can be fun, but only offensive linemen and (some) running backs enjoy such. That hurts the Eagles offense, even if RB DeMarco Murray plays, which I don't think he is. If Washington runs the ball against a shaky Eagles run defense with big RB Alfred Morris, the Redskins can wear the big Eagles defense down, even without WR DeSean Jackson (hamstring) and so many injured players on both sides of the ball, including so many on IR. Throwing passes will be at a premium here and the bad weather helps Washington more than Philadelphia... at least right now.

Who wins?  The above states it all. If the Washington coaches don't get cute and/or stupid, they can grind out a win here. The loser of this game will be in big trouble and right now, a loss would hurt the Eagles more....and not by much. Remember, Washington has nothing to lose. The Eagles have all the scrutiny on them. Perhaps Eagles coach Chip Kelly should be checking the temperature of his seat right now? Maybe? Right. Washington wins.

Washington 24 Philadelphia 17

 Oakland at Chicago: The Bears look bad. Even if they had injured starting QB Jay Cutler, this team has not been that good. Things are going to get worse, even after Cutler returns. The Raiders are on fire, having won their first road game in the Eastern Time zone in 6 years and two straight games. A loss by Denver, coupled with an Oakland win would put Oakland in a 1^st place tie, which is big for this young team. This is a classic trap game, however. How will QB Derek Carr and these young offensive weapons handle this challenge, especially when the first third of their difficult division schedule still lies ahead?

Who wins? Oakland has played well the last two weeks and the defense is better than it looks. Chicago, even with injured WR Alshon Jeffrey back is likely not going to have enough to win, unless these youngsters beat themselves. These Raiders need a blowout win to really help their confidence, not another barely survive type of win. As much as everyone else says the blowout win happens here, I will be conservative and say solid win for Oakland. That will work too.

Oakland 28 Chicago 20

Sunday Night Football on NBC: Dallas at New Orleans: This game would a marquee game, but a lot of mess has occurred. Dallas lost their first game at home after blowing a lead to (still undefeated) Atlanta. True QB Tony Romo and WR Dez Bryant weren’t playing (and neither will for quite a while yet), but that was an inexcusable loss. The Saints are worse off, starting 0-3, but expect future HOF QB Drew Brees to return after missing last week’s loss at Carolina (barely). If Dallas can run the ball like they did in the first half last week, and do it for the WHOLE GAME, they should win. If they get cute (or dumb, take your pick), Brees can and will burn them and that won’t be good, for Dallas does NOT have a big lead in the crazy NFC East. One or two of the other three teams will still be close, so a second straight loss here would not be good for Dallas.

Who wins? Brees looks like he will play Sunday Night, and these Saints are scary at home in a primetime TV game. Dallas' run game looked good in the first half, but they stopped running and that was a big factor in the loss to Atlanta. Without their two stars, Dallas is just another team or worse. Just another team is not enough to beat the Saints at home. I am taking New Orleans.

New Orleans 33 Dallas 25

Monday Night Football on ESPN: Detroit at Seattle: Detroit once again got the shaft when it came to scheduling. After blowing a potential winning game in the home opener to Denver on SNF, they get an extra day off to fly west to face still-angry Seattle and the fully reformed Legion of Boom. Not good. Yes, RB Marshawn Lynch is banged up. So is Detroit QB Matthew Stafford. Real simple, Detroit would have a better chance if both teams were 3-0 coming in, instead of a winless road team and Seattle’s only win over a hapless and Cutler-less Bears team here last week. A Detroit win here would be monumental, bigger than Dallas winning here last year in the regular season.  For Detroit to have any chance to steal a wild-card berth, they need to likely win out…yeah, right. I hope Detroit’s PK Matt Prater is feeling better this week after getting sick before facing his old team. Not that it mattered.

Who wins? Really? I am not convinced Detroit can win even if they played well, Lynch sat the game out and Seattle QB Russell Wilson plays the worst game of his career (and remember when he did that, somehow Seattle won anyway in the NFC title game last year!). Detroit is a shell of what Green Bay is and even crazy me cannot and will not pick that upset, especially with the game in Seattle. Sorry, Seattle wins.

Seattle 30 Detroit 19

Bonus picks: NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup: Race 3: First Elimination Race: Dover: This race determines the Chase drivers who advance to the Contender Round (of 12). Ten spots remain with Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin already through to the Contender Round with wins. Qualifying was rained out, so the 16 Chase drivers will all be in the front to start the race, based on points. However, defending champion Kevin Harvick is 15th (23 points behind 12th place Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and he and 16th place Clint Bowyer (39 points behind 12th) must win or hope that Earnhardt, Jr., 11th place Jamie MacMurray, 13th place Kyle Busch AND 14th place Paul Menard all wreck early and finish worse than 36th (if not the bottom 4-5 places (39th to 43rd) AND Harvick and/or Bowyer finish top 2 or 3 (well, Bowyer must win,,period).
    But Dover is not Harvick's nor Bowyer's best track and no one will get much practice time on the track due to the constant rains of this week. If there is anyone who can get that win in this situation, it is Harvick, having done it last year to win the championship. But that was at Phoenix and Homestead then, this is now. Miracles can happen...but this race will be a war. It may look like (upcoming) Talledega but without the restrictor plates or the big speeds. A Contender Round without Harvick and/or Kyle Busch and/or Bowyer (almost a sure thing at this point) or possibly even Jeff Gordon in his final full time campaign would be a shock. But shocks happen in the playoffs, especially in NASCAR.

Who is in and who is out?
IN: Kenseth, Hamlin (clinched)
Should be safe barring finishing last: Edwards, Logano, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch
No sure thing, but will slip in: Keselowski, Newman, (has enough of a points lead to get in without disaster early), 

Barely makes it in: Dale Jr. (he will find a way to get a top 10 and that will be enough), Kyle Busch (after what he had to do after his injuries at Daytona just to make it in the Chase and actually doing it....you want to bet against him when he is ONLY 1 point out of 12th with one race to go? Right.) Gordon (sentimental favorite, too experienced and savvy to not get the needed finish to move on, especially since he will start 10th and will stay out of trouble all day), Harvick (he pulls off the miracle and wins this race and gets in, even if others finish way back due to wrecks. He has led more laps than any driver this year. He is that damn good and he is pissed off and also desperate to make it to the Contender round. Outside of Kyle Busch this year, what driver can match that, much less the attitude needed to get a win by (virtually) any means necessary?)


OUT (unless he wins the race);
Bowyer: He can drive and he could win this race, but needs a perfect race and all of the other chasers other than Kenseth and Hamlin to mess up a lot to steal this win. Won't happen or he won't be in the right place to take advantage if it did.
Menard : He has too much bad luck and no teammates to help.
MacMurray : Same as Menard, plus too many drivers right at the same point total. Someone has to fall short if everyone finishes close together in that group between 10th and 15th. He will miss 12th place by less than 5 points (2-4 places)
Truex, Jr.: Some Chase driver will wreck and will miss the next round by finishing below 30th. Truex will be the one who loses the most ground, because his luck is not great, either and I will not bet against Harvick or Kyle Busch, especially if one wins the race and the other is right behind him with at least one or two bonus points and Truex gets no bonus points (for leading a lap and/or most laps).