2015 NFL picks: Week 3...plus NASCAR Chase Race at New Hampshire....

NFL Picks: Week Three

This is the final week before byes start, so start preparing, fantasy football owners!     

   

Last week: NFL picks: 6-10…not good. Season: 11-21…not good. Bonus picks: Total 5-5.

Well, my picks were not good last week either, as a whole. I did, however, pick the Jacksonville and Oakland upsets, so that is something. I was even on my bonus picks. A Chase driver did win (Richmond’s own Denny Hamlin), but 15 of the 16 Chase drivers finished well within the top 35 (only defending champion and favorite Kevin Harvick did not). And the WWE picks were also 4-4. Let’s hope I can really improve this week. And I am typing fast before my computer erases my text and I have to retype this..again! Enjoy your weekend!

Thursday Night Football on CBS/NFL Network: Washington at New York Giants:  The importance of this (still) early season game has changed a lot since the schedule came out in April. The Giants are reeling after late game blunders cost them two games. The Redskins are feeling better, but not confident after upsetting the team that upset Seattle on Opening Day after choking away a win against Miami in their opener. Now they play on a short week, with the winner being in shouting distance of 2-0 Dallas, who is in deep trouble with their best two offensive players out for at least half of the season (including their bye week) with major injuries. Neither of these teams were expected to compete in the NFC East, but with the Eagles also 0-2, tonight’s winner can take a major step toward having a chance to shock the division, if not the NFL. Both sides have many injuries, but the Giants have more major ones, but they are at home on a short week, and this is Washington’s first road game. Those things matter, too.

Who wins? On a short week, it is often wise to take the home team, especially if they were playing at home that previous Sunday, as the Giants did. However, the injuries they have, plus the pressure to win on the coaches and the team after another 0-2 start, and especially the way they blew two fourth-quarter leads give me pause. For all of the (underlying for now) drama surrounding the Redskins and their QB situation, tonight, they are the more stable team, and they have momentum and the better running game on their side. As long as this game does not come down to special teams…take the road team. I am.

Washington 29 New York Giants 23

  

Sunday’s Games:

Tampa Bay at Houston:  The surprising thing here is that 1) Houston is 0-2 and 2) Tampa Bay is not 0-2 right now. The only thing helping the Texans is that prohibitive division favorite Indianapolis is also 0-2 and both are only 1 game out of first. Regardless, this game is huge. Every win for Tampa and rookie QB Jameis Winston is big, but Houston was supposed to be better than this, even with having almost nothing at QB and star HB Arian Foster out injured (but could be playing in 1-2 weeks?). This is a must win for Houston. But Tampa has weapons on offense. This is no sure thing.

Who wins? The Bucs have a opportunity to steal another game today and they might. But I think that Houston is desperate enough to find a way to get the win at home. They are still in trouble. But 1-2 is a lot better than 0-3. Houston wins.

Houston 28 Tampa Bay 24

 Pittsburgh at St. Louis: The Steelers bounced back from the loss at New England with a strong win over the 49ers. The Rams laid a egg at Washington after upsetting the 2 time NFC champion Seahawks at home. Getting the Steelers at home is good for the Rams. The bad news is that star RB Le'Veon Bell will be back after his 2 game suspension and he is real good. The Rams may have a tough run defense, but having allowed 30+ points a game so far is not good, especially since Pittsburgh has all of the weapons to score at least that much on anyone. Win this game and the Rams will be considered in a new light. Good luck with that.

Who wins? The Rams are building a strong team. But they still have a ways to go, and if your team can't keep opponents out of the end zone, you have a problem. These Steelers are too good and too diverse and too experienced in all areas to blow this game on the road. Seeing rookie Rams RB Todd Gurley in his first game is nice, but Pittsburgh has too much overall. Steelers win.

Pittsburgh 35 St. Louis 30

 New Orleans at Carolina:  Carolina is taking care of the business and that is what they should do. The Saints have not looked good, and now future HOF QB Drew Brees (shoulder/throwing arm) is out for the first time in his Saints tenure. Backup Luke McCown is not the worst QB around, but he is no Brees. Now, folk have to wonder if the Saints were wise to start to change their offensive philosophy and trade away star TE Jimmy Graham to Seattle (though he has not done much for them so far, as they are 0-2 as well). Carolina and their WR-challenged offense should be able to score against these so-so Saints defenders, and they still have QB Cam Newton, especially with the game in Charlotte. But......this is the NFC South, right?

Who wins? This game would be close under normal conditions. Could go either way. But....Saints win...on the road...stop Cam Newton..and do it with no Jimmy Graham and...especially no Drew Brees? Unless Carolina gives them 2-3 pick-sixes..... NFW!!!!! Take the home team...sorry New Orleans.

Carolina 24 New Orleans 14

San Diego at Minnesota:  The Chargers are a dangerous squad. But they got down big at home against the Lions, though they rallied. The could not do the same at Cincinnati last week and now they fly a long way to play the Vikings who may be a NFC clone of themselves. However, Minnesota QB Teddy Bridgewater is no (San Diego QB) Philip Rivers. Then again, San Diego RB Melvin Gordon is no (Minnesota RB) Adrian Peterson either. Feel bad for both defenses, for points and yards will be earned in large numbers in this game.

Who wins? The Chargers are already on their second long road trip. For all the weapons they have, that gas tank may be already running low. Minnesota will be fired up and Peterson will eat up a lot of clock with the run game. I think Minnesota may have something in this one, especially if they don't make mistakes and they control that clock. Rivers cannot beat you from the sidelines. Minnesota steals this one.

Minnesota 29 San Diego 23

San Francisco at Arizona: This is a huge division game for both teams. With the Rams at 1-1 and Seattle at a shocking 0-2, the winner of this game will be in great shape, especially if it is 2-0 Arizona. Can the Niners slow down these Cardinals, who are hot with QB Carson Palmer back under center? Right now, the Cardinals will be the team to beat in the NFC with Green Bay, as long as they keep winning, especially with Seattle and Dallas reeling. And this game is at home. If Arizona can win and be 3-0 and have no less than a 2 game lead on the division (unless the Rams win) would be huge. But can they win?

Who wins? The Niners could be the surprise team of the year. But Arizona with a healthy Palmer is a tough out for the best defenses, and the Niners is not a top defense, right now. Plus, Arizona is more dangerous in their dome. I don't think Larry Fitzgerald will get 3 TDs again, but he will be a factor. Sorry, Nupe...but I can't go against Arizona at home today.

Arizona 33 San Francisco 27

Jacksonville at New England: The Jaguars got a upset win over Miami last week, but these Patriots had a shootout with Buffalo and won. The Jags would have more of a chance to win if QB Tom Brady was not playing...but alas, he is. And this team is nearly impossible to beat at home. Only a perfect game by the Jaguars and the worst possible game by the Patriots give the possibility of a upset. Right? And it is not snowing, which would make it worse for the road team from Florida..just saying.

Who wins? The Patriots are on bye next week, so they will not hold back in this one. The Jags will test their progress on how close they can keep this game. I hope the Jags don't allow 40+ points in this one, but it won't surprise me.  The Jags win only if Brady has 3 or more pick-sixes and multiple Patriots, starting with Brady and Gronk go down...right. Patriots win, but may struggle for a little while.

New England 38 Jacksonville 24

Cincinnati at Baltimore: This is a big AFC North game and it will be a war. But Baltimore is 0-2 and last in the division. The Bengals have the weapons to win in the Baltimore home opener. They also beat down the Raiders team that shocked Baltimore last week (both games were in Oakland) and stopped the Chargers at home. But these Ravens are a different bunch at home. But can they get a win at home without defensive leader LB Terrell Suggs (Achilles-IR). After last week, even I have my doubts on that.

Who wins? The Bengals are rolling early....but we have seen this before. Playoff wins is what matters and Baltimore has a lot more than Cincinnati has. Desperate and hurting Baltimore at home is a dangerous thing....ask the Steelers last year. I am taking the home team in a upset for I think the Ravens find a way because the Bengals won't bury them while they can.

Baltimore 33 Cincinnati 30 (OT)

Indianapolis at Tennessee: Like many other teams, this is must win for the Colts. Unlike most of the other surprising 0-2 teams, they must get a win on the road. But the Colts are 12-0 against their division foes in the last 2 years, so the Titans may be just what they need. But the Titans are tougher with 1st round pick QB Marcus Mariota, who is not that dissimilar to Colts QB Andrew Luck, except that Luck went 1st overall and does NOT have a Heisman in his trophy case. Luck, however, does have experience and confidence and no fear about winning in Nashville on this team. Can his teammates help win this game? We will see.

Who wins? Tennessee could be dangerous sooner rather than later with Mariota at QB. But you can't beat experience. And now, the Colts are desperate. This may be the one division where a team could overcome 0-3 and still win the division. But, the Colts do NOT want to take that chance. I think the Colts get it done and avoid 0-3....but it won't be a cakewalk. Be warned. Colts escape with a win.

Indianapolis 28 Tennessee 27

Atlanta at Dallas: The Falcons are lucky to be 2-0, but this team has some passing weapons, so this is not a total surprise, but that running game is still...weak. Luckily, they get to play a Dallas team with no real offense left with QB Tony Romo AND WR Dez Bryant out injured (for a long while), RB DeMarco Murray running for not even a 100 yards total yet after two games in Philadelphia and TE Jason Witten being almost immobile now with ankle and knee injuries (but he is playing and his hands still work!).  Backup Dallas QB Brandon Weeden is not the worst backup QB in football, but he is close. Look, Dallas is hoping to steal wins while their best players are out and they know defensive help is two weeks away (after finishing 4 game suspensions). If Atlanta can't beat these Cowboys now, they may never will and they need home field in the playoffs. Conference win are major needs here. Period.

Who wins? Dallas has some defense and seeing LB Sean Lee contribute after missing all of 2014 is nice. Defensive help is coming in 2 weeks so Dallas must hang in. Now, we see if this...joke of a Dallas running can get it done with no Dez or Romo, knowing the Falcons have no running game themselves. Atlanta does not have a great defense and their luck runs out today, so I have to take the home team.

Dallas 28 Atlanta 27

Buffalo at Miami: Both teams were talking smack last week, both teams took it in the mouth. Miami's loss was worse, since there should have been no reason that they lost in Jacksonville (WTF????...but I DID call that upset!). Now, Miami can right the ship in their home opener and get a big division win while dropping Buffalo to 0-2 in the AFC East. Not defending their home-field may have cost Miami a playoff spot last year. Better get that fixed starting now. If Buffalo wants to be for real, they must win this game after falling to the Patriots. Though, if the Jags upset the Pats in Foxboro....that will sting....a lot, but not as much as losing this one. Just saying.

Who wins? Really? I think the above says it all. The Dolphins had no excuse for that loss last week. Neither of these teams will look great today. But at least Buffalo can score a lot. Miami...not so much. I am taking the road team in a so-so game. Might be a yawner.

Buffalo 28 Miami 20

Philadelphia at New York Jets: The surprisingly 2-0 Jets have a opportunity to really be flying high if they drop the shaky Eagles to 0-3. If that happens, Eagles coach Chip Kelly may not survive 2015 as coach after all of those strange trades and dumping of good players in the last year and a half. If he actually would say he is still better off right now without former Eagles offensive weapons McCoy, Jackson and Maclin, than he is delusional. Losing LB Kiko Alonso doesn't help either. These Jets are not that bad it seems and new coach Todd Bowles may be better than we thought. And he is doing it with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and NOT injured former starter Geno Smith (broken jaw...you know the story). Not good for the birds in green. Too bad the team couldn't get a blessing from Pope Francis before he left New York and went to Philly and the team flew north to New Jersey. Don't forget, these guys will be back to face the Giants later in the year. The schedule maker probably had a good laugh on that one.

Who wins? Kelly is overrated as a coach and worse as a de facto GM. These Jets are handling their business and they have a defense that can stop the Eagles offense if they were playing well. Too bad the Eagles are not. Now, Eagles RB DeMarco Murray is OUT today? Eagles are going to be grounded. Period. Jets shock the world and go to 3-0. Beware, Patriots.

New York Jets 30 Philadelphia 18

Chicago at Seattle: This is another big game for a top team who is 0-2. The Seahawks certainly did not look like themselves on defense in losses to St. Louis and Green Bay. But..both games were road games, and perhaps might have been losses even if (now former) holdout S Kam Chancellor had played. However, he is back for the home opener and they get a Bears team who is likely not going to upset this team. Bears starting QB Jay Cutler (hamstring) is hurt and as of today as I write this (Thursday night), he is seemingly unlikely to play, putting backup Jimmy Clausen in. Now, WR Alshon Jeffery is out, too. Look, we know what should happen, but will it?

Who wins? The Seahawks have to win and win big to get some confidence, with or without Chancellor. This offense just have to score a lot and hope the reformed Legion of Boom defense can revert back to their old ways allowing very few points and taking names. Chicago has nowhere enough to win in Seattle unless the destroyed Chicago defense, gets several pick-sixes to bolster the scoring. No chance of that anywhere...especially in Seattle in front a very mad home crown. Seahawks win going away.

Seattle 30 Chicago 17

Oakland at Cleveland: Both teams won last week,and this could be a good one. But is Cleveland doing right by reinstalling injured QB Josh McCown (concussion) as the starter after backup QB Johnny Manziel stunned the Titans? Hard to say. Even playing Cleveland, these Raiders are tough on offense. Though I am sure this team is ready to stop playing AFC North teams (3 straight to start the season...WTF???). Cleveland had better hope the Raiders don't find their pass rush this week, or Manziel may have to be right back in...and that could be bad.

Who wins? I understand why Manziel is going back to the bench, though the Browns won at home last week. However, Oakland's pass rush will come out sooner or later...and if it is today, McCown does not have the mobility to escape them. I also don't think the Browns can score with Oakland either. I know Oakland has lost their last 14 games coming to the Eastern time zone...today the streak ends. Cleveland makes too many mistakes to stop a dangerous Raiders offense and Oakland does have D.....seriously. Raiders win.

Oakland 35 Cleveland 31

Sunday Night Football on NBC: Denver at Detroit: Denver is 2-0 but needed major errors by their opponents to get their wins. I will not be surprised at all if this week makes it three in a row. Detroit's lack of a stable offensive line is a big deal. This is Detroit's home opener, but with QB Matthew Stafford beat up from the loss to the Bengals, what can he do? Denver, nonetheless, had better play better than the first two game or this could be a big prime-time road upset.

Who wins? The Lions must win or the season is over. Denver needs a solid win with Manning or they are in trouble. But the Lions have a sore QB who may not be able to make many more hits after two tough games. I want to take Detroit, but you can't take a battered Matthew Stafford over Peyton Manning...anywhere. Period. Denver survives again....but beware of Oakland, Manning....beware.

Denver 33 Detroit 28

Monday Night Football on ESPN: Kansas City at Green Bay: Green Bay crushed some old demons by winning over Seattle last week.With Detroit and Chicago both 0-2 (and very possibly both 0-3 before this game occurs), Green Bay can run away and hide in the NFC North. The Chiefs lost to Denver in a heartbreaking way, but having extra time to recover and prepare might help. Green Bay HB Eddie Lacy won't be 100 percent (what else is new?) but could likely play. Can the Chiefs put on their big boy pants and go and upset Green Bay at home? Seriously?


Who wins?  After that loss 10 days ago, the Chiefs minds must be blown...again. And you really think they can go into GREEN BAY and win on MNF????? You must be either from KC or on something illegal. Green Bay adapts better than almost any team right now, and they are playing well.....and they stopped Seattle last week. Easy call. Green Bay wins again.

Green Bay 30 Kansas City 24


Bonus: NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup: Race 2 at New Hampshire: I didn't think we would see Kevin Harvick so far down after the Chicago Chase race. However, he is not far from the 12th place cutoff to make the next round and if any of these 15 drivers can rally to win here and/or next week to automatically advance to the Challenger round, like Denny Hamlin did last week, it is Harvick. This will be a tight race.
    Just realize that it may come down to 1 or 2 points (1-2 places in the race finish) to either advance or drop out after next week's race at Dover so the finishes will be worth switching from football to watch. I predict a Chase driver other than Hamlin will win this race and Harvick won't finish in the 40s again. If he does...he is all but done, but so would any other Chase driver that does, except Hamlin....but wins do help toward the end-of-season tiebreaker if he needs it (IF he makes to the final round at Homestead). Clint Bowyer losing those 25 driver points after getting a inspection penalty is HUGE. He, like Harvick pretty much must win to get to the Challenger Round, because making up 31 and 22 points respectively on 12th place Jeff Gordon in his final Chase will be hard. I do think Truex, Jr., Menard and McMurray will all drop back, though they are close to to 12th. Someone has to, and I do think Ryan Newman (8th) will find a way to advance without winning, just like he did last year. He does that.
    One moderate mistake could sink any or all of them, unless one of them stuns everyone to win at Dover and the others finish top-5 while other Chase drivers like Gordon finish lower than 35th. I know Harvick has the instinct and the drive to rally to get back in the top 12, with or without help or lucky breaks.
    I don't think Bowyer will, but he needs both more than anyone in this field, penalty be damned. He is racing so he can get a ride for 2016 with a contending team (if he hasn't gotten such already behind the scenes, which is the norm for NASCAR). I hope he goes to RPM to either replace Sam Hornish, Jr. in the 9 car or they take him and his whole team to form a new third team. That could shake up the garage and make Richard Petty's operation relevant again, if Aric Almirola in his iconic 43 didn't do it already (win at Daytona (summer ) and make the Chase in 2014, just missed getting in this year, clear 17th in the standings with a chance to be the top non-Chase car for 2015). I think such did. Why not shake up NASCAR more? Just saying.