2015 NFL game picks Week One: September 10-13, 2015

   It is time for NFL Football again! This season will be more complex and crazier than ever with new story-lines galore and we already have a lot of players suspended and/or injured, with many out for the year unfortunately. But that is part of the game. Be warned, fantasy football folk that with more ways to play and/or win, you have to stay on your game from today on. So do I. So here is my picks for the first week. I am posting Thursday games by Thursday, the rest by Sunday morning, so watch for updates. Good luck to everyone and to every team as we begin the road to Super Bowl 50 in California in February on CBS!


Thursday Night Football on NBC: Pittsburgh at New England: There is nothing more fun than the first game of a new season. Every team has hope for a successful season. We will see how that goes. The storylines for this first game have changed back and forth and so on all summer. Now, it is game time. So let’s keep it simple. The defending champion Patriots will have future HOF QB Tom Brady tonight, but do not have other vital cogs like DT Vince Wilfork (FA to Houston) and HB LeGarrette Blount (suspended). However, Pittsburgh, despite having their future HOF QB Ben Roethlisberger, they will not have starting HB Le’Veon Bell or WR Martavius Bryant (both suspended) nor former DC Dick LeBeau (Titans). Both teams will be without their planned starting centers due to injuries, plus others. Bottom line, the injuries,  suspensions and player and coach losses hurt Pittsburgh a lot more than the New England. Though HC Mike Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the game today (yes, this Raider fan and fellow Nupe said it!), he is far less used to doing more with less than New England coach Bill Belichick. Despite his other negatives, no one can argue that he has skills at finding talent and doing more with less and with adversity. This game will be fun but it will be sloppy, since it is Game 1

Who wins? If Brady was not playing and Bell (and other Steelers) were, I would be more inclined to pick an upset here. But Brady is playing and (Blount and LaFell and Stork for NE and) Bell and Pouncey and others are not. Neither team’s defense will be as strong as it was last year or in recent years. But Brady still has more of his regular weapons than Big Ben does. And he is at home, where in the last 12-plus years, this team rarely loses. Also, neither team can afford any more injuries to key players…even this early. We might even see a missed long extra point and/or more two-point attempts than usual. Remember, the Steelers are already on their third PK already! This game will be close due to unforced errors, but the champs will get this win….and they need it for the schedule gets no easier from here.


New England 27  Pittsburgh 20

Sunday’s Games:

 Indianapolis at Buffalo: The Colts are prohibitive favorites here, but the game is in Buffalo. New Bills head coach Rex Ryan is known to do things in a unusual way, but is also a good coach, so expect the Bills to have some surprises, beginning with surprise starting QB Tyrod Taylor. Adding a decent defense, WR Sammy Watkins and dangerous RB LeSean McCoy, Buffalo is dangerous, especially at home. The Colts, however have elite QB Andrew Luck and a group of nice receivers. However, they are still not that settled at RB, and their defense is traditionally not a top-flight bunch. 2015 seems to not be a exception, but this squad was in the AFC title game last year...we know how that went. If there was a Week 1 upset special....this is one of them.

Who wins? I don't think the Colts will overlook Buffalo, but with so many wild cards and knowing the Buffalo offense may be more explosive than one thinks and they have a good RB to control the clock that the Colts don't really have, that is trouble. And you have a motivated Rex Ryan on the sideline....upset time! I am taking Buffalo.

Buffalo 29 Indianapolis 28

Green Bay at Chicago: Green Bay is one of the best teams in the NFL. They also have a recent tendency to find ways to overcome injuries. Losing WR Jordy Nelson (knee) for the year in the preseason would devastate most teams. This is not most teams. As long as future HOF QB Aaron Rodgers is upright, this team has a chance and the defense and remaining offensive weapons are still better than most as a group. Chicago is a hot mess, starting with QB Jay Cutler. Unless he has a year for the ages and stays healthy (unlikely), Chicago is screwed. The Bears have weapons on offense, but injuries have already hurt them, and if history is right, more is coming. Worse yet, new coach and a defense that is far from the old-school dominating bunch of decades past signals bad season ahead. Sorry.

Who wins? The Packers need a top seed to have a chance to get through the NFC playoffs. Knowing Seattle may only have to cruise to win the West, Green Bay must take care of business in their division, even on the road. Green Bay should win this based on experience and talent....but seeing how many good players have already been lost due to injuries, never mind suspensions....you never know. Green Bay rolls here.

Green Bay 30 Chicago 20

Kansas City at Houston: This game is intriguing. The Chiefs have most of their weapons intact from last year, but this group is a underachieving squad. The fact that no WR for this team caught even 1 TD pass last year is shocking. That must not continue, but it might this week. Houston's defense is dangerous and may be even more so with the addition of NT Vince Wilfork and the return of DE Javenon Clowney to a defensive line with MVP candidate DE J.J. Watt. But that offense...not good. Dangerous HB Arian Foster is out until at least October (if they are lucky) and no great QB here to throw to some up-and-coming receivers. However, Brian Hoyer (FA from Cleveland) can be a okay short term solution...if he can stay healthy. KC has the advantage with QB Alex Smith, HB Jamaal Charles and a strong defense...but...that offense underachieves with everyone there. Charles has been dinged up before. Tough call.

Who wins? The classic argument is that a great offense will ultimately beat a great defense. Neither team has such at this point. Defense will rule the day here. I have to take Houston because KC is less potent away from Arrowhead Stadium. Houston...may find some offense...especially if they play Watt on offense again..and that is kind of fun. Houston survives.

Houston 23 Kansas City 20 (OT)

Carolina at Jacksonville: Jacksonville may be a good team...in 3-4 years...if they draft well and the young pieces grow and get good together...and stay healthy. Losing their 2015 1st round pick in the first set of workouts...not good. QB Blake Bortles may be the real deal, but he doesn't have the experience nor the help, much less the defense to be good yet, but they can spoil a few teams' playoff hopes. Carolina has their QB in Cam Newton. The defense is decent, but are they better with troubled DE Greg Hardy gone to Dallas (after serving a too-short 4 game suspension for his criminal acts)?  Carolina backed into a playoff spot in the historically (bleepy) NFC South last year and hit lotto by getting to host a de-clawed (no QB, no RB, etc...) Cardinals team in the wildcard game. That won't work this year. Carolina has to win the winnable games for the rest of the South will not be that bad again (right?). The problem with the Panthers is offense. Other than nice TE Greg Olsen, who will catch the ball? Who will run it (who can stay healthy)? Few will watch this game but this will be interesting.

Who wins? This is another upset special, but less so, knowing Carolina is offensively challenged, though less so than the Jaguars. This is another low scoring game, but Carolina should win, and they need every road game outside of the South they can get...just in case.

Carolina 24 Jacksonville 14

Seattle at St. Louis:  This is a major division clash....and it is Week 1. The 2-time defending NFC champs start on the road against what may be their toughest division opponent this year with the many losses that the Niners have suffered. The Seahawks are mostly intact and you know the players, plus the addition of TE Jimmy Graham, but the ongoing holdout of S Kam Chancellor could be a big problem if it persists deep into the season. (Understand his desires, but he does have 2 years left on his deal and the team cannot resign everyone (early). The Rams now have a new QB in Nick Foles. If he can stay healthy all year, that is a plus. If he can do so and come close to replicating his great 2013 season, then that will be big. With that tough defense and their young weapons improving, the Rams could make the playoffs, which they almost did last year.
This is a must-win for the Rams, for odds say that the Rams won't win in Seattle later...but......

Who wins? Seattle's mystique is lessened a bit away from home. With the Legion of Boom not fully intact, this gives the Rams more of a chance. The arrogance of Seattle's coach and players can also bite them in the rear. I am going to take this one as a upset special for I think the Rams know that this game may make their season. I will take the Rams in OT.

St. Louis 27 Seattle 24 (OT).

New Orleans at Arizona: The Cardinals are ready to show they are contenders this year after getting back QB Carson Palmer from injury. His health will probably decide how far this team can go, though we hope the backup QB is better than what they had last year....ouch! They still have WR Larry Fitzgerald and a good defense...but they need more to make the playoffs again. The Saints are retooling themselves, including the surprise trade of the aforementioned Jimmy Graham to Seattle. But they still have QB Drew Brees and some nice weapons. Will that be enough in the (bleeped-up) NFC South? We will see. For this game, it will come down to who plays better defense and makes fewer mistakes. I just don't know how that will go.

Who wins? Arizona can be tough at home, but their lack of a running game will hurt. As good as Palmer can be when healthy, Brees is better and is far more battle-tested. That, and these Saints are tough to beat at anyone's dome. Saints will steal this one.

New Orleans 33 Arizona 24

Detroit at San Diego: The Chargers will be a dangerous squad...once they get everyone back. They are tough at home. The Lions are....the Lions. You know the players, but one has to figure with the players they lost, especially on the defensive line, this team will regress. But that passing game is dangerous, even outdoors in good weather. This may be high scoring, but could be messy too.

Who wins? A perfect game on offense by the Lions could get it done. But having young and untested players at RB and the issues with QB Matthew Stafford, all-world WR Calvin Johnson and the others with winning games (especially with playoff spots on the line..or on the road) makes it hard to pick them. The Chargers have weapons, but I just don't know if they can get it done...this early. I will take Detroit in a upset.

Detroit 36 San Diego 34

Baltimore at Denver: Baltimore flies west to face QB Peyton Manning and the new look Broncos. New coach, new system, older Manning. True, Manning probably cannot throw many 50-70 passes now, but he has the weapons to not have to. But they have lost players, including TE Julius Thomas and that will hurt. Denver is not better than last year and that is trouble and gives hope to the rest of the AFC West. The Ravens are mostly intact from last year, but need this road win. Remember, the Ravens were forced to play at Denver in Week 1 after winning the Super Bowl due to a schedule conflict with the Orioles who gave the new champs the finger. Denver crushed the Ravens and they paid the price later. With the defending champs already having won, the loser of this game will be hurting here, but such may hurt Baltimore less, since Pittsburgh was the one who lost at New England, plus the suspension of their top RB.

Who wins? It takes time for a new coach to get it going, especially with a team with a older QB whose arm skills may be getting low. There is no substitute for experience, but these Ravens are battle tested and that defense can stop a Broncos team with fewer weapons and less athleticism. For these Broncos, blood is in the water and the Ravens will be the first to feast...even in Denver. Ravens win.

Baltimore 31 Denver 27


 

Tennessee at Tampa Bay: This is the battle of the two top picks in the 2015 NFL draft. Who says the schedule-maker doesn't have a sense of humor? This is a rare opportunity to see two young QBs head to head early on. Unless they play in preseason or in the Super Bowl, these teams do not play again for 4 years. Neither team is good. Both are trying to build a winner. Good luck with that. This is a must see for if both do well, maybe we are seeing a future Super Bowl matchup?

Who wins? This will be a close game. It will come down to who will make more mistakes, who has the supporting cast who does better. Mariota got the better of Winston in the CFP months ago. Winston has a national title, both have won the Heisman. But there is a reason Winston went first overall, and we will see a small taste of such today. I have to take Tampa at home.

Tampa Bay 28 Tennessee 24

Miami at Washington: This game will be brutal. Miami has fortified a tough defense with the biggest free agent on the board in Mr. Suh from Detroit. Miami may have improved their offense as well and may be ready to finally return to the playoffs. Maybe. Miami is expected to win here and needs a strong performance to start the year. Little is expected from the Redskins and now Kirk Cousins is the starter instead of RGIII (finally cleared to play after a concussion in preseason), who is demoted to third string. Will Griffin get to play this year (here or if he is traded and/or released)? I didn't think it was wise to sign him to the 5th year tender, but they must deal with it. Washington's defense is a little better with free agent pickups and players returning from injury. Cousins can manage the offense, but can he not make fatal turnovers, much less avoid that dangerous line? Playing this game on the shaky turf of FedEx Field in front of the not happy, but still mostly loyal home crowd may be the home team's only shot.

Who wins? Miami also signed QB Ryann Tannehill to a extension and it was a good idea. But it is up to him to prove he is worth the money and to lead this team back to the playoffs. Washington is a dumpster fire that will just get bigger as the year progresses. If Miami blows this game....how can they beat the teams in their division, who are all better (or no worse than equal to) than the Redskins. Period. However, Cousins is also playing for his future and this offense has weapons even with all of the injury losses they have already suffered, especially at tight end. I am taking Washington in a upset, but it will be due to a late Miami mistake and not because Cousins puts numbers up like Brady on Thursday night (if Cousins does that....Miami may already be screwed!). But a Washington loss by many points won't surprise me.

Washington 31 Miami 28 (OT)

Cincinnati at Oakland: Same old Bengals, not much to say. Yes, they have resigned top WR A.J. Green to a extension. Yes, they still have a good defense and all right offense with QB Andy Dalton. But this team has been to the playoffs the last four years...some with home playoff games. Lost them all. This longtime coach STILL HAS NOT WON A PLAYOFF GAME. I think they will overlook these young Raiders, who have more pieces and a experienced coach in place. Bottom line, almost no NFL team wants to play at Oakland...ever. The Bengals is about to find that out...the hard way.

Who wins? Cincinnati is favored of course, but I am not convinced they will be that motivated. The Raiders have nothing to lose. Every win they get will be a upset and is a building block for 2016 and 2017 where this team could be ready to go for it all. For today, the Black Hole will make a difference. Raiders upset the Bengals.

Oakland 29 Cincinnati 27
 

Sunday Night Football on NBC: New York Giants at Dallas:You know the story and the players. This is another major divisional game in Week One. All the pressure is on Dallas. Lose this game and Dallas is in early trouble. Lose QB Tony Romo and/or WR Dez Bryant to injury...season over. The Giants will not have WR Victor Cruz this week but they have WR Odell Beckham, Jr. This is must watch TV on Sunday Night...especially if he makes one of those OMG catches again like he did last year. Let's hope so.

Who wins? Dallas has more weapons and everything else than the Giants. But that running game that helped so much last year is way diminished with RB DeMarco Murray going to the Eagles. I am not saying the cap decision to let him leave is wrong (it wasn't), but the replacements they got is not good. If the Giants find a way to take advantage, they win, since there is less pressure on them...excluding their coach. But Tom Coughlin seems to do his best work when his seat is the hottest...ask New England about that. Plus this team does give Dallas trouble in openers on SNF....in Dallas. Screw it...I am taking the Giants.

New York Giants 34 Dallas 31 (OT)

Monday Night Football on ESPN: Opening Night Doubleheader:

Philadelphia at Atlanta:  BIRD WAR!!!!!! The Eagles fly south to face the Falcons on the early MNF opener. You know the storylines, so it leads to this bottom line...can new Eagles QB Sam Bradford stay healthy and get it done in a contract year? Yes...IF he can stay healthy for 16 games. Not sure about that. Atlanta can throw the ball around if the WRs can stay healthy. But, still no real running game and that defense....is not great. The Eagles has a up tempo offense (a 21st century run and shoot in my opinion...Google it if you don't get the reference) that will have fun in this dome. You will not see much (pass) defense in this game. Have fun!

Who wins? Philadelphia has some semblance of a defense...not so sure about Atlanta. If the time of possession stays with the Eagles, which is the easiest way to keep Atlanta QB Matt Ryan and friends off the field, they win. If not, it could go either way. The Eagles does have running backs to do just that. If Eagles coach Chip Kelly realizes this and follows such, Eagles win.  If not.....lots of points...lol.

Philadelphia 44 Atlanta 38

Minnesota at San Francisco: The Niners are a dumpster fire with all of the losses of coaches and personnel in the off-season. Too long of a list to name. They will be hosting Super Bowl 50. Not good. Getting a win on the late MNF opener would be huge since expectations have gone straight to the toilet. If QB Colin Kaepernick (go get them Nupe!) can have a great despite all of this....then he earns all of that big contract he signed a couple of years ago. But it won't be easy. Minnesota is a dangerous sleeper team and now they have the dangerous RB Adrian Peterson back healthy and kind of mad. Minnesota needs to win here to get things going....and knowing they may not be favored often...they had better win this one. Good luck.

Who wins? The Niners will have pride to try to protect their house. Unfortunately, they will not have the bodies to stop Peterson and dangerous young running QB Teddy Bridgewater at the same time. Unless the Niners get a bunch of pick-sixes....they will not keep up. Sorry, Nupe...I have to take Minnesota here.

Minnesota 30 San Francisco 23