2015 NFL Game Picks Week 2- September 17-21, 2015

NFL Picks: Week Two

Last week, I started out well, but my last 11 picks all lost, including the surprising endings losses by Detroit, Philadelphia, Minnesota and especially the New York Giants. So let’s see if I can turn it around fast from 5-11 in Week 2. Plus, my picks for the first race of the NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup and this Sunday night’s WWE pay-per-view Night of Champions.

Thursday Night Football on CBS/NFL Network: Denver at Kansas City:  This is a major test for both teams for so early in the season. Denver just got by Baltimore last week at home and now comes to Kansas City on a short week. This may not be good for QB Peyton Manning, who looked old and shaky. But his experience and calmness under fire means a lot. The Chiefs got up big early on the road at Houston and had to weather a late rally. Of course, Denver has a more dangerous, diverse and intact offense than Houston does. At the same time, Denver is starting with a new offense with a new head coach and has less weapons than they did the last couple of years and it is a system that does not completely fit to Manning’s strengths, especially at his age. One cannot completely panic over last week’s poor performance considering the above, but……such must be kept in mind. This is a big game, but it is still bigger for the Chiefs if they are to defeat the defending division champs at home.

Who wins? Manning has only lost once to KC in twelve games against them, none (6-0) since he came to Denver. I know I picked KC most of those times, but Denver’s offense (and team overall) had a decided advantage in almost all of those games the last 3 years. Today, that gap is much smaller and KC coach Andy Reid is not a bad coach. If there was ever a time for that streak to end, now has to be the time for one cannot bet on winning in the thin air of Denver for the rematch later in the season. After seeing the stats on last week’s game…I think KC finally gets it done, so I will take them. Now, will the Chiefs finally break the record-tying streak of 20 consecutive games with a WR scoring a (receiving) touchdown? For their sake, I hope so, but I am not holding my breath.

Kansas City 23 Denver 20

Sunday’s Games:

Houston at Carolina:  The Panthers got their win over the Jaguars last week, but it wasn’t pretty nor was it very easy. Either Jacksonville is a bit closer to be a contending team than we thought, even with their injuries, or Carolina is worse than we thought. Bet on the latter.  The season ending loss of Carolina WR Kelvin Benjamin is huge, much more so than the similar loss of Jaguars 1^st round pick Dante Fowler in the summer and such will be felt in every game this year. Meanwhile, Houston’s offense is very shaky having already decided to switch starting quarterbacks already, now going with Ryan Mallett over Brian Hoyer. Will this help? Hard to say, but if injured RB Arian Foster does return by Week 5, that could make all the difference for this offense, no matter who the QB is at that time. Houston’s defense will definitely make it hard on Carolina QB Cam Newton and friends. Don’t bet on a lot of points here unless there is a lot of field goals and/or special teams or pick-sixes going on… and THAT is very possible.

Who wins? This is a pick-em game. I just don’t know. This will be close and almost surely low-scoring. I have to take Carolina for this one due to them being at home and their offense being less hamstrung than that of Houston. Lucky for them the Colts also lost last week, but they are both looking up to….Tennessee in the standings? Go figure. 

Carolina 23 Houston 22

San Francisco at Pittsburgh: San Francisco is riding high after stunning Minnesota at home on the late Monday night game. But now, they travel to the East Coast on a short week to face an annoyed Steelers team who had extra time to prepare for this game after losing at New England. These young Niners may be better than we thought, but going into Heinz Field is a tough proposition all the way around, especially after a tough loss AND they have more time to prepare for your team coming cross country. Not good. I was wrong about my fellow Nupe SF QB Colin Kaepernick last week, but I am not betting against our fellow Nupe Steelers HC Mike Tomlin at home. And he is not in a good mood....AND the Niners do still have a rookie head coach on that sideline (Mike Tomsula).

Who wins? For all the reasons above, I cannot bet against Pittsburgh. If the Niners make all of the errors on Sunday that they did on Monday, Pittsburgh will blow them out for they will not fail to turn those mistakes into points, like Minnesota did, even without RB Le’Veon Bell (suspension). I am going safe and logical here..and you should too.

Pittsburgh 27 San Francisco 23

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Well, the debut of top pick QB Jameis Winston did not go well. But he didn't have a lot of help against the Titans. Now he and the Bucs go west to face the Saints and future HOF QB Drew Brees. Good luck with that. The Saints seem to still be in the slump the entire NFC South was in last year, especially when the Saints choked away several home games that may have helped them make the playoffs if they had won. Falling to 0-2 is not a option for these Saints.

Who wins? If the Saints play efficiently and play like the Saints usually do at home (excluding the second half of last year), the Buccaneers would have to play (and score) like Mariota did last week in Tampa to stay close. I only see the former occurring, if either. Saints win.

New Orleans 30 Tampa Bay 18

Detroit at Minnesota: Both teams choked road games on the West Coast last week. Detroit at least was winning and just could not stop a Rivers-led Chargers comeback. The Vikings could not score against a seemingly toothless 49ers defense, even with early turnovers and barely used returning RB Adrian Peterson. Surely the Vikings and Peterson will do much better in their home opener in their last year at their temporary outdoor home, especially knowing how much weaker the Lions are away from home and outdoors. But the Lions offense has far more and deadlier weapons than the Niners. Something has to give.

Who wins? Hard to say, but for either team like for the Saints 0-2 is not a option, especially if Green Bay beats Seattle and goes to 2-0. Peterson will get his yards this week, but that will not be enough in a shootout. Detroit can still pass better than Minnesota and without bad weather to slow that down, that is the difference. Lions win.

Detroit 33 Minnesota 24

Arizona at Chicago: Arizona got a much needed opening win last week. With the Seahawks' surprise loss at St. Louis and the Niners upsetting(?) Minnesota on MNF, the Cardinals have a opportunity to get up early, knowing the other two have winnable, but far from sure thing, road games this week. The Bears....yes...they have heart. But they also have QB Jay Cutler and without great Cutler who rarely appears these days, and a weak D, this team is no match for a disciplined offense. Arizona has that..if their QB, Carson Palmer and new starting RB Chris Johnson plays well....and stays healthy. Good luck.

Who wins? Arizona, being a dome team has trouble outdoors, but against a weak Bears team, could do just enough to get by and they must. They have to go to their division foes' home eventually and they know their odds aren't great. For this week, the odds are in their favors. Cardinals win.

Arizona 27 Chicago 20

New England at Buffalo: This is the co-Game of the Week. You know the players and the stakes. Normally, you would not bet against a Patriots team with 10 days to prepare for a opponent. But, these Pats are less potent away from home and more importantly, the Bills have weapons on both side of the ball and in particular, a experienced head coach who loves to face New England. Right. New England didn't dominate the Bell-less Steelers like they could have. This test will be harder.

Who wins? The Bills know that new RB LeSean McCoy is a top RB when healthy and able to get free. Well, he isn't fully healthy. Even with the Patriots getting starting RB LeGarrett Blount back from suspension, we know McCoy wins that matchup. We know Brady and Gronkowski. The wildcard is new Bills starting QB Tyron Taylor. The Pats have had trouble with mobile QBs in the past....and coach Rex Ryan knows the Pats and coach Bill Belichick all too well, plus is known for being a risk-taker himself. This game will be fun. I am taking the home team here. The Patriots are not as invulnerable as in past years.

Buffalo 34 New England 33

San Diego at Cincinnati: The Bengals rolled in Oakland last week, but we have seen this story before. Remembering that long-time coach Marvin Lewis STILL has not won a playoff game after more than a decade makes one get real about this squad. The Chargers are dangerous anywhere...as the Bengals found out in the playoff game last year. Normally, the West Coast team coming east is in trouble. This is one of the exceptions, based on BOTH teams. This will be a interesting and important conference game.

Who wins? The Bengals is a good team, but not the most clutch at times. The Chargers are more dangerous when their backs are against the wall. After last week's comeback, and considering the opponent, I am not betting against Rivers. Chargers win again.

San Diego 30 Cincinnati 21

Tennessee at Cleveland: The Browns looked good with new starting QB Johnny Manziel....for a few minutes. Then the Jets got serious and crushed him. Can the Titans do the same? I do not know. If they played like they did last week....I think they could. I don't have much faith in the Cleveland defense...forget about the offense. This seems fairly simple.

Who wins? No one outside of Cleveland thinks Manziel can really do much as a QB. Unless he matures a lot and gets a lot of help...that is correct. Josh Gordon would be very helpful right now. Tennessee QB Mariota has more weapons right now, hence, the Titans win going away.

Tennessee 29 Cleveland 20

Atlanta at New York Giants: The Falcons got away with a big win on Monday night. The Giants...not so much. You saw it. Can the Giants rally at home? Hard to say. But we know the Falcons are not so great outdoors...even in good weather. But the QB battle could be epic. Giants QB Eli Manning would have a better chance if WR Victor Cruz could play (out again) but he will be okay. This game will be fun, but whoever makes the fewest mistakes...wins.

Who wins? The Giants are tough at home...Atlanta doesn't seem to do well at MetLife Stadium. I just have a feeling the Giants will roar back this week...and Atlanta loses in a close one. Not sure why...just a feeling. Giants win.

New York Giants 29 Atlanta 27

Miami at Jacksonville: The Jaguars put up a fight against the Panthers before falling. Minor surprise. Miami had a real fight with Washington and barely survived due to the poor Washington special teams where Miami should have dominated them. Not good. Can Miami do better against their in-state conference rivals? They had better. Barring a injury to QB Ryan Tannehill AND RB Lamar Miller, Miami should win easily. If they do not...what will they do when it is time to face tough teams like the ones in their division?  Jacksonville is just playing to get better. Let's hope such will help..in 3-4 years.

Who wins? What else is there to say? If Miami cannot win this game by at least 14....the Dolphins have more issues than we thought. I hope their top FA pickup is working on his cardio....he looked tired last week...and it is week 1! What the hell? But I am nuts...I am taking the Jaguars in a upset...and if you bet for money...take Jacksonville and the points.

Jacksonville 24 Miami 21 (OT)

Dallas at Philadelphia: This is co-Game of the Week number 2. You know Dallas got a win they should not have Sunday night. But...WR Dez Bryant (foot) is out for most of the (if not the whole) regular season...if not all of it. Can QB Tony Romo still play well with the rest of their receivers, which do not inspire much fear without Bryant? Not this week. The Eagles can take advantage..if they can score a lot and the defense can get by that huge Dallas line. Good luck with that. The bad news is the scoring total will drop at least 10 points with Bryant out. Sorry.

Who wins? Revenge for RB DeMarco Murray against his old team? If he can't get such now....then he won't get it later in the Dallas rematch game. Philly wins if they win the clock and the turnover battle...period. As the Giants learned....don't mess with Romo in the last minute with the game on the line....with or without Bryant. I think the Eagles get it done, for Dallas needs time to get used to life without Dez. Later on...we will see. Eagles win...barely.

Philadelphia 28 Dallas 24

St. Louis at Washington: St. Louis got a big win at home last week. Washington let a potential upset slip away. Now Washington gets another chance at home. But....I don't see it happening unless Washington controls the clock (like 40-plus minutes) using RB Alfred Morris and so on. But the Rams have a great run defense. Can Washington throw the ball on this defense, especially with WR DeSean Jackson out? Yes, if WR Pierre Garcon can get open and not drop the ball. I am not even starting on the Rams RB carousel. But as long as the Rams can throw with QB Nick Foles and WR Tavon Austin...the Rams will be fine.

Who wins? Simply put...the Rams have a dangerous special teams....and the Redskins have one that is similar to swiss cheese. Austin may not be as dangerous on that (not so good) grass field in Maryland...but you don't need much if your special teams can't cover a cold when it matters. I am sorry...only major injuries can help the Redskins win this game....and I am betting the Rams will have fewer of those anyway...no offense. I have to take the road team.

St. Louis 28 Washington 23

Baltimore at Oakland: The Ravens looked horrible on offense last week at Denver. But so did Oakland hosting the Bengals. The Ravens, however, lost their defensive and emotional team leader for the year (Terrell Suggs-Achilles), while the Raiders will get QB Derek Carr back...though maybe not future HOF S Charles Woodson (shoulder). The Raiders do have more defense than one thinks and though many think the Ravens can run wild with RB Justin Forsett, who did little last week, saying it and doing it in Oakland are two different things. I don't see many points scored here, and that will favor Oakland. Unlike Peyton Manning, Carr can throw deep and move around a bit. Without Suggs...that could be a problem.

Who wins? Baltimore needs a win to stay close in the playoff race (yes it is week 2). Starting 0-2 is (almost) a back breaker. Oakland is not expected to do anything anyway, so any win they get is a upset. If Carr can finish the game and the game is close....anything is possible. Oakland steals this game and then they go to Cleveland next week....save the laughing until next week. Raiders win.

Oakland 28 Baltimore 20

Sunday Night Football on NBC: Seattle at Green Bay: This game is big and a rematch game and so on. Seattle did not look good in losing at St. Louis. The vaunted Seattle defense allowed 34 points to the Rams, who had nothing at running back. What can they do in their diminished capacity against Green Bay and QB Aaron Rodgers? Even without WR Jordy Nelson? And they have a running game. Yes...that is what I thought. Bottom line, Seattle QB Russell Wilson needs to blow up today as does RB Marshawn Lynch to win here. And Green Bay does have a  good defense. Good luck. If Seattle falls to 0-2, they are in deep trouble, especially if the Rams and/or 49ers win their games and go to 2-0. This will be must see TV.

Who wins? Seattle is looking shaky and Green Bay needs this game bad.....for many reasons. I cannot bet against Rodgers and friends in this situation, especially with the game in Green Bay. This will be a war...but the Packers win.

Green Bay 33 Seattle 27

Monday Night Football on ESPN: New York Jets at Indianapolis: The Colts need to win this game and avoid going 0-2. The Jets are rolling high after beating Cleveland but the Colts is another matter. This will be a good game, but the experience of the Colts will bring them through.

Who wins? The Jets have some pieces...but winning on the road against this team is not easy. I cannot pick against Luck and his team at home. They can score at home and I don't think the Jets can stop them. Simple as that.

Indianapolis 40 New York Jets 20


Bonus 1: NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup: Race 1: Chicago: The 16 drivers in this year's Chase have all got what it takes to do well. But all it takes is one wreck...one bad finish to knock themselves out.  My bottom 4 after this race: McMurray, Bowyer, Newman and Menard. I think the full set of 16 will finish in the top 35, but it won't be easy. I am thinking that a Chase driver will NOT win here....but at least 4 will finish in the top 10.


Bonus 2: WWE Night of Champions: Projected winners:

Sting upsets Seth Rollins to win the WWE World Heavyweight title...BUT Sheamus uses Money in the Bank (and other help from Rollins and/or others) to face and beat Sting for the title immediately afterwards. Sheamus leaves Houston as the new (3 time) World Champion with Sting having one of the shortest title reigns ever.
 
John Cena beats Seth Rollins...by DQ.... allowing Rollins to remain United States Champion.

The Dudley Boyz beat The New Day and become the new WWE Tag Team Champions

Charlotte upsets Nikki Bella for the Divas Championship.....due to failed outside interference and/or Twin Magic. Bella will not lose by pinfall...maybe submission?

The Wyatt Family beat Reigns, Ambrose and mystery partner by disqualification. The mystery partner will be either Randy Orton, Erick Rowan or someone from NXT. They would need someone like the Rock to win this match...and he is...kind of busy right now. Sorry.

Kevin Owens beats Ryback for the Intercontinental Title and his first title in WWE.

Neville and the Lucha Dragons upset Stardust and The Ascension via DQ