My picks for Week 11 of the NFL season (based on my thoughts, my research and what I think ONLY!):
Disclamer: These are my picks and opinions only. If you make picks and/or bet money, favors or whatever based on what is listed below with whomever or wherever, that is on you. If you win, great! Let me know (or even send me a small cut of the profits...lol!) If not, don't bitch. These picks does have 50/50 odds. Better than the lottery. If some team chokes a game due to..whatever...not my fault. I will be mad too. Maybe!
Disclaimer done: Let the games begin!
Week 8 of bye weeks begin. One more week of bye teams to go after this week! Fantasy football players, be sure to double check your leagues so that all of your spots are covered! Remember, the playoffs are close! Time to make that final playoff push!!!
Bye teams (only 2 this week, don’t ask me why):
Dallas (5-5): What can I say about the Cowboys that hasn’t been said at some point this year or in the last decade or more. THEY SUCK! This Raider fan is not biased at all! The fault of this is not all on the players…they have a LOT of talent on both sides of the ball and they play hard. The fault is not the coach. Look, HOF coach Bill Parcells couldn’t get this team back to the Super Bowl, but he got the Giants and Patriots there. Jason Garrett is no Bill Parcells. The blame falls on the owner, Jerry Jones. He built a fun and entertaining team and it has been for years. But since the mid-90s, this team hasn’t been to a Super Bowl and maybe one NFC Championship. In that 20 year span almost every team that is currently in the NFL has appeared in the Super Bowl (only Cleveland, Detroit, the current Houston franchise and Jacksonville (all of whom have never made it), Miami, Minnesota, Kansas City, Cincinnati and the New York Jets has not made an appearance since Dallas last made it). The so-called America’s Team has no excuse for that! This year’s team has the same story as the last 5-7 years…lots of talent, lots of injuries, lots of bad luck and/or dumb mistakes. The Cowboys should have all but wrapped up this division already. The Giants started 0-6, Philly and Washington have lost a lot of winnable games…but so has Dallas. Blowing wins versus Detroit and Denver AT HOME and getting pummeled after leading at New Orleans is not good. Can Dallas finish strong and wrap up the division? Yes. Will they? I have no idea. Tony Romo is a good QB, but not great. Until he starts winning big games and pulling out wins consistently, he is an overpaid QB. If he continues to have not enough help because of weakening talent and/or too many damn injuries everywhere, that is Jerry Jones’ fault. Jones learned a lot from the late Al Davis of the Raiders about being a great owner. What he hasn’t learned after all these years is that BUYING a championship level team and building and/or maintaining a championship-level team are TWO DIFFERENT THINGS. Until Jones learns and/or he brings in the football minds that can get it done for him, the Cowboys will continued to be the fun to watch wannabe team with the tarnished star on their helmets watching everyone else win titles, except them. How about THOSE Cowboys?
St. Louis (4-6): The Rams are a tough-luck team. They are in the tough division with Seattle San Francisco and Arizona. They have a tough schedule. They have injuries and a shaky running game. Then they lose their wannabe franchise QB Sam Bradford for the year. Year over, right? Then, they come up a yard short of upsetting Seattle (who is shaky for being 9-1). They give the Niners a fight (who got beat up by Carolina at home????) and then they CRUSH the Colts by 30 points. All this is Kellen Clemens as their QB. WTF???? If the Rams had won the above two games and then beat the Colts…the Rams would be in a wild-card position RIGHT now…without Bradford!! Jeff Fisher is a fine coach and he makes the most of his talent. Perhaps the Rams’ problem isn’t the other players or the coach. Maybe it is the QB. Bradford may not be the rigft fit for these Rams. Just saying. I see the Rams as a spoiler team from here, but I will interested to see what they do and who they draft in the 2014 draft.
Week 11 Games:
Indianapolis at Tennessee: Thursday night on NFL Network: If I had written my thoughts on this game last Sunday night as I intended to, it would be a bit different than what is below. With that said, here goes: This game’s complexion is much different today than it was prior to Sunday. The Colts seemed to be cruising to a AFC South division title and perhaps a high seed in the playoffs. The Titans seemed to still have a fighting chance at a wild-card berth. Then came Sunday. The Rams, who I spoke about above come into Lucas Oil Stadium and crush the Colts 38-8! Then the Titans lose another close game and also lose QB Jake Locker for the season as well! So…now both teams are upset, embarrassed and have to play on a short week. Do the Titans have a chance without Locker, even at home? Yes. The Titans still have RB Chris Johnson and new starter Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a rookie. He isn’t great, but he has experience. The Titans have a chance, especially if it is cold or worse for this night game on the visitors from the cold weather city with a dome. The Colts cannot lose this game because two losses in 5 days will seriously dent their momentum and their chances at a high playoff seed. Now we get to see if QB Andrew Luck, who seems not to do well outdoors and the Reggie Wayne-less Colts can bounce back. That is what playoff teams are supposed to do. I will take the Titans in a upset, but a close Colts win won’t surprise me.
Tennessee 28 Indianapolis 27
Detroit at Pittsburgh: I really thought Detroit could bounce back from a horrible 2012 season to contend for a playoff spot. I just didn’t think Detroit would be 6-3 and leading the AFC North with 7 weeks to go! But this is no easy stretch and a one game lead is not much at all. Winning in Pittsburgh is no easy feat, even with a weakened Steelers squad. Detroit is another dome team that does not do well outdoors, especially when it is cold or worse. Lucky for them, they already played at Green Bay and Chicago. Pittsburgh is no easier from a weather standpoint (kickers know all about that!). To win this division and have at least one home playoff game in January, Detroit must win this game, AND must end their long Thanksgiving drought and beat Green Bay, whether they have QB Aaron Rodgers back or not and finish strong and hope Green Bay and Chicago falter more without their starting QBs. Even with WR Calvin Johnson, Jr., I am hesitant to take Detroit in outdoor games. They lost in Green Bay in clear weather without Johnson, but they DID beat the Bears outdoors with him. Pittsburgh will still be a tough test due to the weather. I have faith the Lions will win this one in a technical upset.
Detroit 20 Pittsburgh 17
San Diego at Miami: The Chargers still have a shot at a wild-card berth, as does Miami. Miami’s other situation is the talk of the league, and perhaps was a factor in their road loss to then-winless Tampa Bay on Monday. Miami has some weapons and some defense, but the running game is rather weak, and free agent pickup Mike Wallace has been nearly invisible. San Diego is looking better and QB Phillip Rivers is dangerous again, but that weak running game hurts and I am surprised very good TE Antonio Gates hasn’t gotten hurt yet (not wishing it, just going by history here). This is another long East Coast trip for the Chargers, and I think that may be enough to let Miami slip by in a close one, where overtime will not be a surprise.
Miami 27 San Diego 24 (OT)
Green Bay at the New York Giants: Green Bay is reeling. They have just re-signed QB Matt Flynn as a backup after temporary starter Seneca Wallace was injured in last week’s loss to Philadelphia and was lost for the year. Regular starter Aaron Rogers believes he will be back next week to play and then play in the Thanksgiving Day showdown at Detroit from his broken collarbone/clavicle or whatever bone it was. I don’t see either happening. If the young QB who will start (forgot his name) Sunday (or Flynn) can somehow win this game and/or next week, rest Rodgers. Green Bay needs him for December if they want to get to the playoffs. I can’t see him back before the second week of December anyway, but we will see. The Giants have won 3 straight, barely, and like Washington, STILL have a shot at the NFC (L)East crown. But the Giants must win out to do it. If they do, that will be a NFL-record feat (making the playoffs after starting 0-6!!!). Unlikely, but not yet impossible. Getting the Packers AT HOME without Rodgers is a gift from the football gods. (Giants QB) Eli Manning, enjoy this gift and go score a lot. But to quote RuPaul; just “don’t **** it up!” Dead serious here. This may be your last chance to be relevant in 2013. Take advantage.
New York Giants 28 Green Bay 24
Cleveland at Cincinnati: The Bengals have a nice team and are still leading the AFC North, but that OT loss to the champion Ravens hurts. Fun finish to regulation though. The Browns with QB Jason Campbell look better and maybe they aren’t quite done yet. The Browns have a chance to rock the Bengals and help themselves in the playoff race, just like the Ravens did. Can these Bengals bounce back at home? Maybe. They have the weapons with QB Andy Dalton and WR AJ Green, but losing DT Geno Atkins for the year is a hurt that keeps on hurting. Losing to Miami and Baltimore in OT back to back is bad, but blowing another division game at home as well? That can kill their season. A 2 game lead was nice, but having less than that can bite you later, Cincinnati. Must win division games. I love underdogs. Browns win a thriller on the road.
Cleveland 24 Cincinnati 21 (OT)
Minnesota at Seattle: Seattle is a power team, but they have looked bad lately. These Seahawks may be the luckiest 9-1 team in a long time. I would think that this should be a no problem game for Seattle at home, but I don’t know. Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson is a beast anywhere and NO ONE wants to mess with their return game. But QB Christian Ponder got hurt in the win over Washington and as of today (Tuesday) seems unlikely to play. Minnesota still has a decent defense and Seattle is starting to deal with more injuries. Seattle QB Russell Wilson and RB Marshawn Lynch are still here so, I will take the Seahawks. Seattle, don’t blow that extra game lead the Niners gave you last week. Minnesota is not Tampa Bay, and you won’t come back from 21 down on THIS team, Seattle, even at home. Just saying.
Seattle 31 Minnesota 23
New York Jets at Buffalo: This game will be weird. The Jets are better than we thought they were, but they are far from a complete team. Upset the Patriots and the Saints, yet they get crushed by Cincinnati in a way that I have not seen in a while. Buffalo will be a dangerous team with rookie QB EJ Manuel, WR Stevie Johnson and RBs Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. But not this year. They need more pieces to finish the puzzle of playoff contender. They can however, be a spoiler and they have the weapons to do THAT. Weather should not matter much for two cold weather teams. I think the Jets, who currently are in the second AFC wild-card slot, realize that it may be just keep winning and you are in time now. Coach Rex Ryan is experienced enough to remind his team of this.
UPDATE: The Jets have signed FS Ed Reed after he was released by Houston earlier this week. He will play Sunday, but he is NOT the starter. However, I am also changing this pick to Buffalo. I sense a upset, and not because of Reed. Still, it will be close.
Buffalo 27 New York Jets 24
Atlanta at Tampa Bay: Okay, this will be an interesting game. Tampa finally got their first win on Monday at the expense of the distracted Dolphins. Unfortunately, they lost their best RB Doug Martin for the year. Atlanta has lost some of their best players for the year too. They have gotten RB Stephen Jackson back (not much help) and possibly also WR Roddy White (a little more useful) to help QB Matt Ryan. However, these Falcons are not the same team outdoors. Short week or not, Tampa playing both on Monday and on Sunday at home (how did they get that lucky?) and with the 0-16 monkey gone, Tampa may steal a second win, which would hurt their chances at the 1st overall pick in the 2014 draft. Somehow, Tampa’s coaches probably aren’t worrying about that. I doubt they will be here for that draft anyway. I am taking the home team in a less major than normal upset.
Tampa Bay 24 Atlanta 21
San Francisco at New Orleans: What the hell was that **** of a game last week, Niners? The 49ers are now two games behind the rival Seahawks, due to a 10-9 loss AT HOME to Carolina. WTF? Carolina has built a strong D (we ALL see that NOW), but the offense still needs help. The Niners need the same after only getting 3 FGs in this game. True, Seattle barely did any better against these Panthers, BUT 1) it was Opening Day 2) it was in Charlotte and 3) SEATTLE still ******** WON!!!! Which is all that matters! Now the Niners must travel cross country to face Drew Brees and the Saints in the Superdome. Injured WR Mario Manningham is back, but he is not enough to help. The Saints are now concerned because the Panthers are right behind them in the standings and they need home field in the playoffs. But so does San Francisco. Colin K…you are my Kappa Brother now and always. I am sorry, man, but you don’t have enough help on offense OR defense to beat these Saints in their house, at least not YET. Better hope Peterson goes off for 300 rushing and 3-4 TDs and Seattle falls at home AND you find a miracle way to win THIS game just to have a chance in the Seattle rematch in a few weeks. That loss last week MAY cost the Niners a shot at the division title. Barring a Seattle collapse, THIS loss MAY cost you a playoff appearance altogether. Mark my words.
New Orleans 38 San Francisco 27
Baltimore at Chicago: This will be a fun game to watch. The world champion Ravens and last year’s Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco got a big home win versus the Bengals last week. This keeps them in the race for the division and a chance to defend their title. Chicago is in free fall after a strong start as injuries (QB Jay Cutler was back in but is out of the lineup AGAIN) and bad luck has shredded a promising season, especially with Green Bay having issues too. However, the Bears are not done, trailing Detroit by a game in the standings. Backup Jake McCown has rallied the Bears before, but he needs help from the normally imposing D and dangerous offense to win games. The loser of this game takes a major hit in their playoff chances, especially since neither team (Chicago in the NFC is in far better shape that Baltimore in the AFC) can count on winning a wild-card berth. Honestly, the AFC would rather see Baltimore win the division or just be out than win a wild-card spot. Remember last year? I take Balitmore here in a close one in cold Chicago in a low scoring game.
Baltimore 23 Chicago 21
Arizona at Jacksonville: Like Tampa did the following night, Jacksonville got their first win of the year last week. The fight and moxie the Jaguars were showing starting with the Denver game finally paid off. Can they win two in a row? Arizona has some fight too, but they do not do well away from home. No one really cares about this game. But it has to be played. Like Tampa, I see a second upset win in a row for the worst team in the league today. It will muddle who gets Number 1 overall, but we have time to sort that out. Jacksonville at home.
Jacksonville 27 Arizona 24
Washington at Philadelphia: This is a game of major importance. Despite all of the bad games, all the hype and reality about RGIII and his return to play after his knee injury last season, despite all the negativity and speculation over coach Mike Shanahan’s future with the team, the Redskins are 1½ games out of first place in the NFC (L)East behind idle Dallas and these Eagles, who crushed the Skins for about 35 minutes on opening night in Landover and survived to win. A lot has changed. The Eagles are now led by QB Nick Foles (for now?) in place of Opening Day starter Michael Vick, who is (shocker!!!) injured (AGAIN!). I will save the jokes for another time. Foles is not as agile is Vick or has his NFL experience. But he has a part of TWO NFL records now, next to future Hall of Famer and current Denver QB Peyton Manning. Seriously. Foles has thrown like 16 TDs and ZERO interceptions. He is getting some help from the defense and his receivers and running backs who are all really fast (when healthy)! Foles has been winning games and that is ALL that matters. Chip Kelly is over-rated (so far) as a coach, but this offense may work….for a little while…IF Kelly can get all the pieces he needs for such. But that is a talk for another time. These Redskins are getting better, but keep tripping up too much. The defense and special teams sucks. The offense is improving, but stupid (yes, I said it) play-calling and poor execution has blown chances to win multiple games IN spite of the above, and they stole a couple too. This game is the season for Washington AND for Philadelphia. Win this game and they have a chance to steal this division and a playoff berth with 3 winnable division games left, plus others (including currently undefeated Kansas City AT HOME). Lose (or even tie), season over. Simple as that. There will be no wild-card from this division. Either win it outright or go home in January. I hope I am wrong on this…but I am taking Philly. Washington CANNOT run the table (7 games) and sneak in the playoffs 2 ******* years a row. NO NFL team that I am aware of has done it or close to it to close a regular season. Right?? We didn’t see having Peyton Manning and NICK FOLES???? On the same page, much less next to each other in the NFL record book, either. Miracles do happen…but not this time. Sorry, Redskins…head has to overrule heart…this time. Prove me wrong. I dare you, Redskins! I double dare you!!!!
UPDATE: I am taking my own dare..Switching this pick to Washington. Just couldn't take Philly.
Washington 33 Philadelphia 27 (OT)
Oakland at Houston: Houston has gone straight into the ground with seven straight losses. Even Oakland who hasn’t had a great year, is ahead of them now. Go figure. Houston coach Gary Kubiak is expected to be back after his mini-stroke scare at halftime two Sunday nights ago. That will help the Texans, but officially losing starting RB Arian Foster (back) for the year won’t. His backup, Ben Tate is playing with broken ribs, which says all you need to know about his toughness and/or modern medicine and/or padding. The QB situation remains muddled but the bottom line is Houston needs to win. The Raiders are two games out of the second wild-card, currently held by the Jets, who they play at MetLife Stadium, site of the Super Bowl in a few weeks. Raider wins and losses by the Jets, Ravens, Dolphins and others down the stretch may allow the Raider games in December to matter a lot for them and maybe even steal that playoff spot. First thing first, they must win this game. The Raiders are healthier and deeper, and Houston’s D is not what it was, especially when they cut prized free-agent pickup S Ed Reed earlier this week. If the Raiders lose this one, season is basically over. Raiders will spoil the return of Kubiak, but it will be close.
UPDATE: QB Terrell Pryor AND RB Darren McFadden (AGAIN!!!) are officially out of this game. I am forced to switch this pick to Houston, and pray I actually get this pick wrong.
Houston 27 Oakland 24 (OT)
Kansas City at Denver: Sunday Night Football on NBC: Well, this is an interesting one. This is the first flexed game of 2014. The last undefeated team is coming off its bye to face many folks’ AFC pick to go to the Super Bowl last year and now this year in Denver. KC has done what it has to do to win. New coach, new QB, new winning attitude and more luck that one team deserves after 9 games played. This is not a dominant 9-0 team. They have not dominated any opponent for a whole game yet…other than Jacksonville on Opening Day (who hasn’t done that? Oh…Denver didn’t, wonder why?? And whomever they beat last week). This is the Chiefs toughest test to this point. Denver has the offense to beat the Chiefs. But KC has a defense. Denver doesn’t. And worse yet, Peyton Manning has injured ankles, maybe more. He is not very mobile to begin with, but injured ankles/legs make him almost totally immobile and a sitting duck. Manning has been hit a lot lately, starting with Jacksonville, and has thrown INTs and/or fumbled the football away a few times, starting with Oakland and others more recently. If your team D cannot stop opponents from getting 21-27 points every single ******* week, why are you still on the team? Manning will have a hard time putting up 45 or more on the KC defense, especially if he is pressured a lot or gets hit a lot. KC has less to lose in this. Lose this game, the teams are tied and then the rematch is in KC in two weeks. If KC only loses to Denver and Denver loses anywhere else the rest of the year, Denver is a wild-card. Denver needs home-field..they will not win three road games in the playoffs with this D. KC could…if they had to…with their D. I am going against many. KC IS overrated, but they have not lost a game, either. They must win this game to prove they are legit, and to nearly cement the division title as well, and they will. If Manning was younger and was not hurt, and the Denver defense was better….but they are none of those things. KC better play perfect, though. Even minor mistakes will cost you this all-important game, Coach Reid. (Denver) Coach Fox, get well. Wish you were there, but Jack Del Rio is a competent interim coach. But take solace...neither you nor he is Andy Reid. He will be the difference either way. The rematch will be fun, in two weeks, depending on how this game ends up, plus the results next week, though. (Remember, Denver is playing a originally scheduled Sunday Night game next week, too. Because this game was flexed, neither KC nor Denver can be flexed again this season.)
Kansas City 38 Denver 35 (OT)
Monday Night Football on ESPN. Note the 830pm start time.
New England at Carolina: This is actually a good matchup for MNF. The Patriots have overcome a lot for their nice record. But the late losses to Cincinnati and the Jets worry me. This is not the dominant Patriots of a decade ago. Carolina is the pleasant surprise in the NFL, even over undefeated KC. KC has always had talent, but no leaders to lead them on the winning path. They have them now. Carolina seemed rudderless, but they have a dangerous D that can shut down anyone…like Seattle and San Francisco. That offense, even with QB Cam Newton is still shaky, except in short yard running. The receivers are so-so and either kind of old and short (Steve Smith) or real young and unproven (everyone else). Can they catch the Saints? If New Orleans loses two or more, including the second head to head with the Panthers, maybe. But to do so, Carolina must basically win out, starting here. I am taking the home team in an upset. Defense wins championships, and Brady doesn’t have enough offensive help to win this road test.
Carolina 34 New England 31
Bonus picks:
I got about a 3.5 right and 1.5 wrong on my bonus picks again last week. I took half points on: 1) Jimmie Johnson did clinch the Sprint Cup title, BUT he also finished the race in the top 15 (9th), which I didn't think he would do. 2) Kenseth did finish second in the final standings, but was more than 10 points behind Jimmie. 3) Danica Patrick did finish higher than 30th in this race (respectable 20th), but her boyfriend, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. won the Rookie of the Year title, not her. The other two I got right: 1) A non-Chase driver won the race (Denny Hamlin from Richmond (Chesterfield) Virginia!!) 2) There were more than 5 cautions in the race (8).
Bonus picks for this week:
Think my picks suck? Send me a reply and tell me why! Good luck to everyone.
NFL picks: 88-72 after 11 weeks; 16-14 on bonus picks; Total: 104-86 overall (as of November 21). I told you my picks would get better.
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