My picks for Week 10 of the NFL season (based on my thoughts, my research and what I think ONLY!):
Disclamer: These are my picks and opinions only. If you make picks and/or bet money, favors or whatever based on what is listed below with whomever or wherever, that is on you. If you win, great! Let me know (or even send me a small cut of the profits...lol!) If not, don't bitch. These picks does have 50/50 odds. Better than the lottery. If some team chokes a game due to..whatever...not my fault. I will be mad too. Maybe!
Disclaimer done: Let the games begin!
Week 7 of bye weeks begin. Two more weeks of bye teams to go, everyone! Fantasy football players, be sure to double check your leagues so that all of your spots are covered!
This week marks the beginning of the second half of the NFL regular season. We have seen a lot of surprises, and some normalcy for some teams. Unfortunately, we have seen a lot of major injuries and many folk lost for the season. We have also seen some unfortunate situations that has nothing to do with football. Football is important, but one’s life and health is much more so. We also wish Houston coach Gary Kubiak and Denver coach John Fox a speedy recovery from their medical issues.
Lastly, we all know about the Jonathan Martin/Richie Incognito situation in Miami. I will write a separate blog about such that I plan to post before Sunday’s games, but I will say here that this is a sad situation for all involved. It does put a damper on the season, everything else notwithstanding. I hope that Martin does return and that a positive outcome can come from this and it never happens again on any sports team or any other place.
Now, on to Week 10. Four bye teams this week. A lot of important games, and it all gets more real from here. Good luck to everyone!
Bye teams (4 teams):
Kansas City (9-0): This is the final undefeated team for 2013 in the NFL. After horrendous seasons the last two years, largely due to injury, a new coach (Andy Reid) and a new QB (Alex Smith) has given the Chiefs a great run. No matter what happens from here, the Chiefs have clinched a winning season, and may only need 3 or 4 more wins to clinch a playoff berth. With that said, I must say that these wins are more smoke and mirrors than substance. Other than their Opening Day 28-2 win over Jacksonville, the Chiefs have not been impressive to me. Their wins have been more due to the mistakes of their opponents than domination by the KC offense. The defense has done a great job, scoring twice last week, which is true.
The problem is that the points and/or great field position earned by the defense’s work is most of the reason the Chiefs have made it to 9-0, plus a less than stellar schedule (not their fault…mostly). The final seven games will show who the 2013 Kansas City Chiefs are. Two games versus AFC favorite Denver, division games versus Oakland and San Diego, plus a game versus Washington, who is surging, will not be easy. I was not sure why the Chiefs were so bad last year with fewer injuries than in 2011 and still a lot of talent (the domestic violence/suicide situation notwithstanding), but I am glad to see them better. Here is the big questions…can they finish the season strong? Can this team win in the playoffs, regardless of the location? If KC wins the home-field advantage for the playoffs, Arrowhead Staduim will be a hard place to win in January. The problem is that KC has had a high playoff seed before in past years and failed miserably (the team’s story for over 40 years), even with a (older) Joe Montana. Can Andy Reid bring the Chiefs through? Like their home-state’s motto, the Chiefs will need to show me they can go all the way, not just talk about it, like they had for..my entire lifetime.
New England (6-2): If anyone doubted whether QB Tom Brady or coach Bill Belichick were future Hall of Famers, this year should dispel it. Between the injuries, off-field drama, unproven new players, and just craziness of the NFL season that the Patriots have endured, most teams would have been done. But the Patriots keep on finding ways to win games. Experience and faith go a long way in a team sport and winning consistently over a long period. These guys have had such. Once again the Pats are in first in the AFC East, but the season is not over. Much like the Chiefs, the Pats have escaped with more than a few wins, though their last-second win at home over the then-undefeated Saints was impressive. Maybe part of it is the mystique of Brady and Belichick, but no one can question the determination of these guys. Brady has proven that he can still be an elite QB even without having top-flight receivers and/or a running game and even a top defense. Redemption is on their minds, as well with recent playoff and Super Bowl losses fresh in the veterans minds. IF the Patriots make the playoffs, they will not be an easy out as long as Brady is upright, even if injuries take out TE Rob Gronkowski (just back recently from off season surgeries) again and/or others go down. This is a team that can win in the playoffs anywhere and may not need home-field to get back to the Super Bowl. BUT…Pats? If you get home-field, like you had last year….don’t blow it to a (allegedly) inferior team in your own house. Okay?
Cleveland: (4-5): The Browns are relevant again! About time. This team has had a lot of challenges and they traded 2012 top 3 pick RB Trent Richardson to Indianapolis for their 2014 1st round pick. But these Browns have proved that they have NOT given up on 2013. Their instability at QB is worrysome. They may have their QB of the future in Brian Hoyer…but he tore up his knee and is gone for the year. Former top pick Brandon Weeden may prove to be a good backup. Starter? Not so much. Having former 1st round pick and veteran Jason Campbell at QB may help the Browns win some games, like he did versus Baltimore last week, and maybe even win a coveted playoff spot…if he gets some help from everyone else. Sitting two games out of first in the AFC North behind Cincinnati (who is on bye next week, I think), the Browns must hope from help from the Ravens and Steelers and other Bengal opponents to bring them back to the Browns…but they must win games themselves. Cleveland probably needs to win out or go 6-1 the rest of the way and get some help to make the playoffs. If they do…no one outside of Cleveland will be happier than me.
New York Jets (5-4): Oh, my. These Jets have proven a lot of folk wrong. The train wreck that they were in pre-season has become a team. Okay, Tampa basically gave them the win on Opening Day (but the kicker was no cinch to make that long FG!), but rookie QB Geno Smith has proven he has game and the Jets keep fighting. Yes they got beat down 49-9 at the Bengals. But they did upset the Patriots in OT and almost won the first meeting, too. They have shown flashes of being a dangerous team. If these Jets make the playoffs (they have a half game lead for the 2nd wild-card berth, figuring that KC or Denver will ultimately win the other wild-card, barring a collapse, but the Jets’ 2-4 conference record hurts), this team will be tough to take out. Heaven forbid if they win the East and some amount of home field advantage. Head coach Rex Ryan may (and should) win Coach of the Year if the Jets get in the playoffs because he has far less to work with in crazy New York/New Jersey than Andy Reid does in KC, who already had nearly enough talent to be a playoff team the last TWO years before he arrived, even if the Chiefs become the second team to go 16-0 in a regular season (unlikely). If the team doesn’t collapse, Ryan may have saved his job and finally shown everyone that he is more than a big mouth and so on (congrats on the weight loss and healthier lifestyle, by the way, Coach. Keep it up!) One has to wonder…what if these Jets go all the way to the Super Bowl and be the first team to play in the championship game in their own (shared) stadium in the Super Bowl era? That would be a BIG story…even for New York!
Week 10 Games:
Washington at Minnesota: Thursday night on NFL Network: This game was a dud. We thought at least one of these teams would be better but for different reasons, that did not happen. Now we have some intrigue. Minnesota is basically playing for a high draft pick now, though they are not (yet) mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet. Washington had even higher expectations and are just now starting to rally in a horrendously bad NFC East. Is their overtime home win over San Diego a springboard for a mid-season rally to make the playoffs like last year, or just one good win in a lost year? This game will help determine that. Washington is 2 out of first (still) and with 4 division games left and division leader Dallas unable to run away and hide, all things are possible. Minnesota is a dangerous spoiler team at this point. But Washington must win this game, and keep everyone healthy to have a chance to make that run. I think the Redskins win in a close one, but this is one of those teams you are worried about every week. That is NOT a good thing.
Washington 27 Minnesota 24
Philadelphia at Green Bay: I would have said that this would be a challenging Green Bay win, but not anymore. With All-World QB Aaron Rodgers breaking his collarbone in the MNF loss at home to Chicago, plus the multiple injuries to several other players on BOTH sides of the ball, I have issues picking the Packers to beat anyone now. Philadelphia QB Nick Foles looked great in throwing a NFL record-tying 7 TD passes to beat my Raiders on the road (second 7 TD pass performance by a QB this year!). But was it more of a case of the Eagles high-tempo offense and ultra-fast WRs and RBs being just too quick for the Raiders’ leaky pass defense? Green Bay has the defensive backs and line to slow the Eagles down, but their lack of depth due to injury at LB, and the loss of Rodgers, who is a great master of controlling the clock, plus losing so many receivers on offense already makes me have to pick the Eagles in a close one. If backup Green Bay QB Seneca Wallace can manage the game for the Packers like backup Josh McCown did for Chicago against Green Bay Monday night and the running attack runs well, Green Bay may win this one and other games until Rodgers returns. The hope (as of Tuesday as I write this) is that Rodgers can be back in time for the pivotal Thanksgiving Day game at Detroit. I have my doubts. Wallace a serviceable veteran QB and Green Bay has a good system, but with a 3 way race now for the NFC North, Green Bay cannot afford any more conference losses..after this one.
KIND OF UPSET ALERT!
Philadelphia 20 Green Bay 17
Jacksonville at Tennessee: This is another ugh game for this week. The 0-8 Jaguars back from their bye, now has to face the second half of their season. Tennessee is barely still in the AFC South race, and cannot afford another loss, especially at home to the Jags. The Titans looked good last week with RB Chris Johnson finally looking like the former 2,000 yard rusher of old. But that was one week. The Jags, even with an extra week to prepare just don’t have the weapons to stop most teams right now not named Tampa Bay at home OR on the road. Plus having their best young WR suspended for the year, if not longer, doesn’t help either. The Jags will fight hard, but the Titans win.
Tennessee 31 Jacksonville 17
Buffalo at Pittsburgh: This game will be weird. The Steelers were starting to make a comeback with a couple of wins, but losses to Oakland and the Patriots have soured the optimism. I told you the Steelers would fight hard no matter what. Buffalo may finally have rookie QB EJ Manuel back in the lineup after a knee injury and they need him. The Bills also have fight, but Manuel’s agility and youth along with their other offensive playmakers make the Bills far more dangerous. Don’t expect many points nor filed goals in this one. Still, Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is really good. I am taking the Steelers to steal one at home.
Pittsburgh 20 Buffalo 19
St Louis at Indianapolis: This is another of those games that we thought would be a good one in April. Again, this is an example of what looks good on paper may not come out that way during the season. The Rams have fight but they are missing a lot of pieces, especially with QB sam Bradford out for the year. Their lack of short-yardage running game cost them the win against Seattle (which should have been a blowout). The Colts are rolling with big wins and big escapes like what they did at Houston (though there were mitigating circumstances). The running game still sucks, even with the trade acquisition of RB Trent Richardson from Cleveland. Now future HOF WR Reggie Wayne is gone for the year. However, they still have QB Andrew Luck and the other young pass-catchers. As long as Luck stays upright, the Colts will be okay. Barring a hit parade on Luck similar to what the put on Seattle QB Russell Wilson (due to having no OTs to protect him in that game), the Colts should be fine for this week.
Indianapolis 27 St. Louis 21
Seattle at Atlanta: UNFAIR BIRD WAR! This was a marquee game when the schedule came out in April. Not anymore. Seattle is still hanging on, but don’t look so great. They had to muster a franchise-record comeback from 21 points DOWN to beat the winless Buccaneers AT HOME!!! This was after coming 1 yard (and a missed 50 yard FG) from losing at St. Louis 6 days earlier on MNF!!! Injuries on the offensive line is hurting these Seahawks who haven’t been blowing out people since early in the year. However, WR Percy Harvin is close to returning (maybe this week, not sure right now) and that will help. Atlanta knows all about injuries. They are just playing out the string with almost all of their offensive weapons injured and/or out for the year. The marquee quarterbacks, Atlanta’s Matt Ryan and Seattle’s Russell Wilson are here, but Wilson has to be sore after the beating the Rams and Bucs put on him. The talent-poor Falcons should not win this game, but…the Rams and Bucs nearly did. And the Falcons are still better than both of them. Seattle wins by 3. Better protect Wilson, guys.
Seattle 24 Atlanta 21
Detroit at Chicago: The NFC North race has just gotten interesting. With the Bears beating the Packers and the injury to QB Aaron Rodgers, we now have a three way tie for the division lead with 8 games to play. Both teams have injury issues and just plain issues, but someone has to win. I am hoping the Lions can get it down, but the Bears are tough at home, and MUST have this win to split the season series. QB Jay Cutler is probably out again this week, but backup Josh McCown did a good job. Do that again and the Bears can be first place alone, assuming Green Bay loses to Philadelphia. If Detroit wins, they have a big advantage, even if the Packers win knowing their schedule is (allegedly) easier than the other teams and they have Green Bay at home on Thanksgiving. This game alone will not decide the division winner, but it will go a long way toward that. Few results would surprise me here.
Detroit 31 Chicago 30
Houston at Arizona: Arizona is trying to be a player, but they don’t have the horses to hang with San Francisco nor Seattle or maybe even St. Louis in the AFC West. The Cardinals are still in the race for a wild-card spot however and have a puncher’s chance at home, so let’s give them this one and see if they can stay in it Houston has lost six straight, has changed QBs and just have had bad luck, like we all saw on Sunday night. Sorry, Houston, you have too many problems to win this one, so it will be seven straight losses. Get well, Coach Kubiak.
Arizona 24 Houston 23
Carolina at San Francisco: This will be an entertaining game. Carolina is showing themselves as a playoff contender. With the power teams of the NFC shaken and/or damaged, the Panthers have a chance to steal a playoff berth. But to do it, the Panthers MUST win games like this one. The Niners are still in good shape, but have to be heartened by the difficulties that division leader Seattle has been dealing with. Still, they are far from safe. This is a game of year candidate just because of the two QBs, Cam Newton of Carolina and my fraternity brother Colin Kaepernick of San Francisco. These teams are evenly matched partially due to deficiencies and lack of depth one way or the other. Niner LB Aldon Smith is scheduled to return after being away dealing with personal issues (not sure he should be back yet) will help a already strong D. WR Mario Manningham is trying to return too, which helps a battered set of Niners receivers. Bottom line, the Niners are playing their final year at Candlestick Park before moving to their new stadium in Santa Clara, where Super Bowl L (that’s 50 for those non-Roman folk) will be held two years from this Feburary. Losing another game at home will not work this year. I take the Niners in a close one because of a better D and running game. Overtime and maybe a tie is a real possibility here.
San Francisco 38 Carolina 35
Cincinnati at Baltimore: THIS is one of the BIG games this week. The Bengals are leading the AFC North and has a 2.5 game lead over the defending world champs and two over idle Cleveland. But they lost a tough one at Miami in OT (by a rare safety!) on Monday and worse yet, lost top defender Geno Atkins for the year. That helps Baltimore RB Ray Rice and QB Joe Flacco, but they have had injuries too. To stay in any playoff race, Baltimore must upset (yes, I said upset!!!) the Bengals. Bengals, if you are a serious playoff team, you must put the Ravens away now. You may not have a chance later. But, sorry, you won’t. Ravens in a close one. This may be another overtime game this week.
UPSET ALERT!!
Baltimore 24 Cincinnati 23
Denver at San Diego: The Broncos got their bye at a good time, but now the work begins. With undefeated Kansas City at home on bye, Denver must win on the road before next Sunday night’s (flexed) first showdown with the Chiefs. QB Peyton Manning has been beat up a bit the last few weeks, but the week off may help. The Chargers know they are still in the race for a wild-card, but they probably have to win out to do it. This is the first of those challenges. If Denver loses, the pressure is that much higher to beat KC twice. They have no guarantee that the Chiefs will lose to anyone else. Facing the Chiefs two weeks out of 3 will be a challenge, but first thing first. San Diego QB Phillip Rivers is having a good year….but being smacked down by Oakland and now Washington shows the Bolts don’t have a quite as much thunder as they think. I cannot see them stopping Manning and his offensive weapons and I don’t think the Chargers can score enough against the porous Broncos D to win, especially when they had an extra week to prepare for the Chargers. Sorry.
Denver 37 San Diego 31
Oakland at the New York Giants: Now, the Giants return from a much needed bye still in last, but still in the NFC East race. Barely. The Giants’ injury issues have not been good, nor has the many turnovers. The season is not over for the Giants, but is close, especially with Dallas and Philadelphia yet to take their byes yet. The Raiders took a big loss versus Philadelphia last week, but still have a chance to rally for a respectful season and maybe a wild-card, but they must do so with a lot of not-easy road games starting with this game, the first of two trips to MetLife Stadium in this regular season, plus trips to Dallas on Thanksgiving, and of course, three division games (but Denver and KC are both home games at or near the end of the season). The Giants have been crushed a bit this year and they couldn’t score at TD against Philadelphia (WTF???). But Oakland did. The Giants won’t stop Terrelle Pryor or Darren McFadden or Marcel Reese and friends. Sorry, Lloyd (nephew-in-law) and Giants fans. Raiders win this one.
Oakland 24 New York Giants 21
Dallas at New Orleans: Sunday Night Football on NBC: Well, this is an interesting one. Dallas and the Saints are teetering a bit. This will be a scoring war, but not quite as much as Dallas-Denver earlier. We know now that Dallas has the ability to score….but can QB Tony Romo stop throwing late game interceptions? No. With that said, there is no way in hell I am going against QB Drew Brees and the Saints in the Superdome for a primetime game. NO ******* way! Saints in the most entertaining SNF game this season (at least until next week and the following week, with Denver involved both times)!
New Orleans 45 Dallas 42 (OT)
Monday Night Football on ESPN. Note the 830pm start time.
Miami at Tampa Bay: When the schedule came out in April, we all thought that this could be a great game. Not now. This game has intrigue for all the wrong reasons. Tampa Bay is 0-8, but almost pulled the upset of the year versus Seattle last week. I just don’t think they will go 0-16, but head coach Greg Schiano lost the team a while ago, plus the MRSA mess and the QB Josh Freeman drama (nasty!!!) should mean that he is gone after this year. We will see. Miami is contending but had lost 4 straight before stealing a win last week in a almost never-seen way in OT. They have other bigger issues right now However, Miami are still in contention for the AFC East and/or a AFC wild-card berth. Will the controversy distract the team from winning a important one? Let’s hope not, for Miami has not been relevant very often this late in a season in a bit. With that said, I am changing my pick and taking Tampa. I just sense that the surprise that almost (and should have happened after going up 21-0) in Seattle will happen at home for the Bucs and prevents them from going 0-16. Better get these messes quashed ASAP. I am speaking to BOTH teams!
Tampa Bay 28 Miami 27
Bonus picks:
Well, I missed them all on the NASCAR race last week. Well, let’s try it again:
At Phoenix this week, the next to
last race in the Chase for the Sprint Cup:
Jimmie Johnson, the former 5 (consecutive) time champ had a seven point lead last year entering Phoenix and lost the championship the following week to (lame duck) Dodge driver Brad Keselowski. Johnson didn't even finish 2nd in the standings due to a late wreck at Homestead, allowing Clint Bowyer to pass him (who may have been screwed out of a chance to race for the title at Homestead, due to a heated crash with four time champ Jeff Gordon at Phoenix the week before (YouTube the video of the aftermath). We won't rehash what happened with those two at Richmond (MY HOME TRACK!!!) in September.
Former champ Matt Kenseth is attempting to bring Toyota their first Sprint Cup drivers championship and thwart Johnson from winning his sixth championship. He has the skill (the last Cup champion before the change to the current Chase format, where Johnson has won 5 straight titles a few years ago). Unless one or the other crashes and finishes last while the other finishes in the Top Ten, we expect this race to go to Homestead next week, winner take all.
The leader may not have to win at Phoenix and/or Homestead to be crowned champion, but he had better be ready and able to try to do so because such might be necessary (Tony Stewart won at Homestead allowing for a tie in points with Carl Edwards in 2011, who finished SECOND in the race. Stewart won his third Sprint Cup title due to the most-wins tiebreaker, because he had won more races (all during the Chase) than Edwards for the season). If Edwards had won OR had gotten the bonus point for leading the most laps at that race OR Stewart had finished even one spot behind Edwards, Edwards would have been the champ and the tie-breaker would not have mattered. This year, Kenseth has that tie-breaker, which Johnson only gets if he wins BOTH of the final two races (which would make him champ since he is the leader right now, even if Kenseth won other tie-breakers to make it closer). Here are my picks:
1. A non-Chase driver will win the race, in particular a
surprising winner. Maybe even Danica Patrick (okay, maybe not).
2. Jimmie Johnson will still be the outright points leader after this
race, but he will not have more than a 5 point lead over Matt Kenseth or anyone
else (meaning Kenseth barely outpoints Johnson in this race, without either of them winning).
3. There will be more than 5 cautions in this race.
There will be at least one major wreck which causes some bad feelings, like last year, involving Chase drivers. This will make up for there not being a BIG wreck at Talledega a few weeks ago (not that I am complaining, for the safety of the drivers!), which was a big surprise!
4. The race for the Chase will be a two-horse race going into the
season finale at Homestead (near Miami) next week for all of the marbles.
Think my picks suck? Send me a reply and tell me why! Good luck to everyone.
NFL picks: 71-60 after 9 weeks; 9-11 on bonus picks; Total 80-71 overall (as of November 7).
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