My picks for Week 12 of the NFL season (based on my thoughts, my research and what I think ONLY!):
Disclamer: These are my picks and opinions only. If you make picks and/or bet money, favors or whatever based on what is listed below with whomever or wherever, that is on you. If you win, great! Let me know (or even send me a small cut of the profits...lol!) If not, don't bitch. These picks does have 50/50 odds. Better than the lottery. If some team chokes a game due to..whatever...not my fault. I will be mad too. Maybe!
Disclaimer done: Let the games begin!
Week 9 of bye weeks begin. Final week! Fantasy football players, be sure to double check your leagues so that all of your spots are covered!
Bye teams (Final four teams this week):
Philadelphia (6-5): The Eagles have had a wild season. I am not sure how they got to 6-5, except that they are very lucky. We know now that Nick Foles is a good QB, but not great. Yet. We also know that Michael Vick is as injury prone as ever. Anyway, I am not sure where this team is going. If the Eagles win out, they are in the playoffs…I think. Defense is shaky. If new coach Chip Kelly gets more help for that offense, which already has weapons….beware the Eagles next year! But for this year…work in progress….I have no idea. We will see how they are in 3-4 weeks. Enjoy the week off, Eagles. You will need it.
Seattle (10-1): This team is luckier than the Chiefs. This team should have at least 3 losses, but so should KC. But they have one loss. Good for them. Especially if the Niners are upset by the Redskins on Monday, the Seahawks have to figure the AFC West title is theirs. But will they have a top seed in the playoffs and the extra week off? Not sure. Carolina and New Orleans are close, Detroit is not far behind. Seattle may have to win out to clinch that 1 seed. The running game is dangerous with Marshawn Lynch. QB Russell Wilson is the real deal and the defense with the Legion of Boom is nice….but not perfect. Seattle is blessed to have avoided injury for the most part, and now free agent WR pickup Percy Harvin is starting to play, to help the so-so receiver group. At this point, wins in regular season is nice. Can they get it done in the playoffs and get to this franchise’s second Super Bowl appearance? Now is the best possible time with most of the NFCs best teams having issues or more. Don’t blow it, Pete Carroll. Don’t blow it.
Cincinnati (7-4): The Bengals is a nice rising team, and have a big lead in the AFC North. Like Seattle, they seem to have the division nearly wrapped up. However, the Bengals are still currently the fourth best team in the AFC (really the 5th, counting KC). Good offense, led by QB Andy Dalton and a strong defense. However, the loss of DT Geno Atkins for the year does hurt. The Bengals have to finish strong. Backing into the playoffs, even if they have their first playoff game at home is not good. If they get a 2 seed, and that week off, that would be huge, and could lead to them having the AFC championship at home, if the top seed (KC/Denver) is upset in the divisional round (again). If the Bengals had to go to NE or Denver or KC, the Bengals have the advantage of being a cold weather team. Wind and snow might help them, with their style of game and not hurt them, as it might Denver or even the Patriots. Playing in the dome at Indianapolis may not bother them either. This is a dark horse contender, who could be more if some things fall their way and no other players, especially Dalton or WR AJ Green goes down. We will see how the dominoes fall.
Buffalo (4-7): No one expected much from the Bills
this year. Things are going to work out that way, but not for the expected
reasons. 1st round pick QB EJ Manuel has proven to be a good choice
after all. If not for his midseason knee injury, the Bills might have been in
the midst of the playoff hunt right now. Then again, such could be said for
many of the Bills’ offensive playmakers. They will be spoilers in the final 5
weeks, though, if the Jets, Dolphins and other playoff contenders keep losing,
the Bills may still find a way to steal that second AFC wild-card. Interesting
thought. I will say this. If the Bills have another good draft in 2014 and
maybe get a free agent or two, Buffalo may contend for the AFC East next year.
Mark my words.
New Orleans at Atlanta: Thursday night on NFL Network: This will be a good game, but not as good as it could have been. Atlanta’s season was decimated by injuries to their best offensive players. Some have returned but some are done for the year. However QB Matt Ryan and future HOF TE Tony Gonzalez are still there and still fighting for respectability. Don’t ask if Gonzalez is returning for next year. I hope he does. New Orleans is now in a fight with Carolina for the NFC South crown and that home field advantage. The two teams play each other twice in the final 5 weeks. Hence, this game is vital for the Saints. The Saints are deadly at home, but are still tough to beat on the road, especially in a dome on prime-time TV. QB Drew Brees has so many weapons, you just can’t stop everyone for an entire game. The Saints need this more, and I think they take this in another close one.
New Orleans 28 Atlanta 27
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: Both teams have had a tough year, but are hanging on to some playoff hope. With Cincinnati ahead by 2.5 games and on bye this week, this game is big. The winner stays in the race for another week, at least. The loser is done. A tie would help neither team either. I told you the Steelers would fight all year and they have. Cleveland started out fast, but is tiring out as the stretch run begins. However, Cleveland is tough at home and the weather is changing. I will take the home team in another close one.
Cleveland 20 Pittsburgh 17
Tampa Bay at Detroit: Tampa has shown heart the last few weeks and has won their first two games. But they are going to Detroit, who is tied for first in the NFC North and is motivated to win (for once late in the year) and very tough to stop at home. WR Calvin Johnson will be ready, and this will be a test for CB Darrelle Revis to see if he is fully recovered from his knee injury and is still an elite corner. However, the Lions win because the Buccaneers cannot stop all the Lions’ weapons, and that D line will get to rookie QB Mike Glennon. Lions win.
Detroit 29 Tampa Bay 24
Minnesota at Green Bay: Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson is a beast anywhere and NO ONE wants to mess with their return game. But doing it outdoors in cold weather is no easy feat. Consider this practice for next year when the Vikings will be playing outdoors while their new outdoor stadium is built. Green Bay must win to keep pace with Detroit and Chicago and hope one or both stumble. They are trying to stay in the race until QB Aaron Rodgers returns, but can they. I see a big day for Peterson, but the cold will ultimately get the Vikings. Packers win….but don’t expect them to win in Detroit on Thanksgiving. More on that later.
Green Bay 31 Minnesota 23
New York Jets at Baltimore: This game will be weird. The Jets are better than we thought they were, but they are far from a complete team. Upset the Patriots and the Saints, yet they get crushed by Cincinnati in a way that I have not seen in a while. Weather should not matter much for two cold weather teams. I think the Jets, who currently are in the second AFC wild-card slot, realize that they must win this one just to hang on to such with Miami, Oakland and others looming. Baltimore is still in the playoff race, barely. Lose this game and they are done. This may be a win week for the Jets based on the pattern for this year, but Baltimore is just too tough at home and they are desperate. Ravens win
Baltimore 27 New York Jets 24
Indianapolis at Arizona: Okay, this will be an interesting game. The Colts are still in control in the AFC South, but must keep winning to possibly get a high playoff seed and maybe a top-2 seed. Arizona is surprisingly only a tie-breaker (SF) out of the 2nd NFC wild-card. They know they won’t win the NFC West, but getting in the playoffs at all would be HUGE. Arizona is tough at home, as Detroit and others have learned. The Colts are ripe for another upset loss and I am calling it here. The Arizona D is better than expected. Colts QB Andrew Luck is great, but still young. Cardinals steal this one and will watch MNF very closely, for sure.
Arizona 27 Indianapolis 24
San Diego at Kansas City: The Chargers are hanging on in the AFC playoff race by a fingernail. They must win out and get help to get in. KC is stinging after their first loss of the year to Denver. The rematch is next week here at Arrowhead Stadium, but the Chiefs cannot look ahead and must beat these Chargers first. Knowing Denver may lose at NE later on Sunday night, KC needs wins like this one to regain an advantage in conference record, which may decide the AFC West title at the end of the season. KC coach Andy Reid knows all about this and will have these Chiefs ready. Sorry SD, no upset here. Chiefs win...get ready for Denver II.
Kansas City 25 San Diego 23
Chicago at St Louis: The Bears are back in a first-place tie with Detroit in the NFC North. Problem is, Detroit has ultimate tie-breaker over the Bears. Hence to win the division, the Bears must win it outright. Meaning win out and hope. St. Louis has proven to be tough at home. But that weak inside running game hurts. The Bears are not 100 percent, but they are still tough even without QB Jay Cutler. The Bears are not going down this early in the playoff race. Bears win a tight one.
Chicago 30 St. Louis 23
Carolina at Miami: Carolina is on FIRE!!!!! 6 straight wins and knows they have a chance to make the playoffs and having two games coming with the Saints. But they cannot overlook this road game versus Miami. They are a tiebreaker (Jets) out of the second AFC wild-card and a lot of teams right behind them. Miami knows they must win to stay in it. Perhaps the Patriots falter down the road and maybe comes back to the rest of the AFC East. Unlikely. Miami has to protect their house, despite the off-field stuff going on. However, the Panthers D is too tough. Carolina wins on the road.
Carolina 31 Miami 23
Jacksonville at Houston: Jacksonville got their first win of the year two weeks ago. Houston has lost 8 straight. The fight and moxie the Jaguars were showing starting with the Denver game finally paid off. No one cares about this game but the fans of these teams so let’s keep it simple. The winner gets a win in division. Great. The loser stays in the hunt for the 1st overall pick in the draft. Period. Jacksonville may need the pick more. Houston absolutely needs the win more, especially at home. Texans win, barely.
Houston 30 Jacksonville 27 (OT)
Dallas at the New York Giants: This is a game of major importance. Seriously. Dallas is now a ½ game out of first, and despite the 0-6 start, the Giants are back in the race at 4-6. Simple as that. There will be no wild-card from this division. Either win it outright or go home in January. With the Eagles on bye, the winner of this game will be right there for the playoffs. Remember the Eagles has lost to both teams already. Even with an extra week to prepare, I am not convinced Dallas can get this one on the road. The Giants are on fire. This is their chance to steal a big one and make Philly sweat. Eli has done more overall in his career than Romo. So has Giants coach Tom Coughlin. Giants win at home.
New York Giants 30 Dallas 27 (OT)
Tennesee at Oakland: This is an elimination game. The winner of this game will be right there for that second AFC wild-card. The loser will be back in the pack and all but done. Simple bottom line. Oakland is tough at home and fired up. Tennessee is beat up, lost their best QB for the year, and is not great on the road. Teams rarely win the 3 games in 18 days Thanksgiving trifecta when they have to play on Thanksgiving, especially not Detroit or Dallas, but this Raiders team may be the one to do it, with a playoff chance on the line. Raiders won last week, they win this one, and they will upset Dallas on Thanksgiving.
Oakland 27 Tennessee 24 (OT)
Denver at New England: Sunday Night Football on NBC: Well, this is an interesting one. Denver gets the rare treat of playing on NBC two weeks straight after winning last week’s flexed showdown with KC. However, NE and QB Tom Brady is not KC. QB Peyton Manning struggles versus Brady and we know he is not 100 percent. Worse yet, the game is in Foxborough (yes, that is the right Massachusetts spelling, I lived near there so I know!). Then Denver goes to an annoyed KC next Sunday. Sorry, Broncos, you may get two of these three, but not all three. NE is fighting for playoff position too and you need more tests, just like KC, and your defense cannot stop Brady, no matter who his receivers and running backs are. Patriots get this one.
New England 34 Denver 31
Monday Night Football on ESPN. Note the 830pm start time.
San Francisco at Washington: This is actually a good matchup for MNF. This is a important game for several reasons. The Niners are barely hanging on to the second NFC wildcard over Arizona (????) by a tie-breaker and Dallas and others who are 1 or 2 games back, including the Giants(?????). The Niners probably need to win out just to get in the playoffs. The Redskins are basically done, but not quite mathematically. If the Redskins win, and then win 2 over the Giants, then upset Dallas and Kansas City at home….oh my. No, that won’t happen…lol. Anyway, the 49ers are primed for a upset on the road, and Arizona, the former NFC East team is really rooting for the Redskins on Monday. I like the Niners…but not that much. Redskins, one more shot on primetime TV! Get it done!!!!
Washington 27 San Francisco 24 (OT)
Bonus picks:
I got about a 3.5 right and 1.5
wrong on my bonus picks again last week. I took half points on: 1) Jimmie
Johnson did clinch the Sprint Cup title, BUT he also finished the race in the
top 15 (9th), which I didn't think he would do. 2) Kenseth did finish second in
the final standings, but was more than 10 points behind Jimmie. 3) Danica
Patrick did finish higher than 30th in this race (respectable 20th), but her
boyfriend, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. won the Rookie of the Year title, not her. The
other two I got right: 1) A non-Chase driver won the race (Denny Hamlin from
Richmond (Chesterfield) Virginia!!) 2) There were more than 5 cautions in the
race (8).
Bonus picks for this week:
Manny Pacquiao returns to boxing Saturday night after losing his last two fights. I think he wins tonight by a split decision. I think this will be a typical Pacquiao fight. Better watch it for I do not think he will fight for much longer.
WWE Pay-per-view: Survivor Series:
Big Show upsets Randy Orton to win the WWE championship.
John Cena retains the World Heavyweight title via disqualification over Alberto del Rio.
Think my picks suck? Send me a reply
and tell me why! Good luck to everyone.
NFL picks: 88-72 after 11 weeks;
16-14 on bonus picks; Total: 104-86 overall (as of November 21). I told you my
picks would get better.
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