2014 NFL picks: Week 10: Big bye week, part 1 and NASCAR Eliminator Round finale picks!

NFL Picks Week 10

Last week, my picks did okay. Even with some surprises, I went 8-5. A couple of late upsets prevented a 10-win week. Okay, lets try to keep the momentum going with the 13 games this week.

 Fantasy football people, please note, bye weeks continue! What…six teams on bye AGAIN this week? This is crazy. The NFL schedule-maker is dumb. This scheduling makes no sense and less so as we go. Remember, Dallas will be on bye NEXT week!!!!

Season to date: 61-71-1 after nine weeks. Not great at all, but it is improving.

Bonus picks: 2-0 last week, 31-18 to this point. The NASCAR race went as expected, excluding the fight after the race. This is the pressure of the Chase. Expect all of that and more, times 8 in Phoenix today. Watch this race....especially the final 50 laps and the finish!!!



Teams with the (late)Week 10 bye:

1.       Houston (4-5): The Texans are improved from last year's disaster, but there is a lot of work to be done. RB Arian Foster is playing well and the defense, led by DE J.J. Watt, is better. But the offense is a work in a progress and is not going to be fully fixed in 2014. This is a team that will be better and will challenge the Colts in the AFC South in the future. But for this year, they must do what they can and see how things turn out. Get on a run from here, and the playoffs are still a possibility. The future is looking better however.
 

2.       Indianapolis (6-3): The Colts are in first place in the AFC South, as expected. QB Andrew Luck is great, as expected. But this running game is weak, as expected. The Colts are getting good..as expected. But can these Colts make that next step toward AFC (or NFL) elite? Not if the running game sucks. Not if the defense is so-so. That will not work in the playoffs, especially on the road. Read Houston's info above. That was the Colts 2 years ago, except for the defense. Can this team do things in the playoffs, without needing the other team to choke?

3.       San Diego (5-4): The Chargers looked like real contenders, building on last year's playoff run to start this year. But then they ran into Denver...big loss. Now they ran into Miami and the Dolphins turned the power off and tossed them back to the West Coast without a charge. QB Phillip Rivers is a great QB, but not when he is on his back or his face. They have to overcome injury and have a nice young RB in Branden Oliver, but more is needed to beat the top teams. The playoffs look far away...again, but can these Chargers forget the recent losses and rally in the last 7 games? Hard to say, but if they support Rivers, yes they can.

4.       New England (7-2): The Patriots are done....NOT!!! The Patriots control their playoff destiny after beating West leader Denver last week. This team is getting healthy and QB Tom Brady has turned the clock back (not quite like Big Ben, but close). Can the team finish strong, and especially healthy and make a run at returning to the Super Bowl? They can, as long as Brady and the improved defense can keep what they have left upright. With a top playoff seed, Denver may be the only team to stop these Pats in the AFC. But this is all in the hands of this team. This year may be a Super Bowl year, with no excuses. We will see. 

5.       Minnesota (4-5):  The Vikings were not supposed to be this good without a regular home, with a rookie QB, and especially without all-world RB Adrian Peterson. This team has fought and stayed together and they are in the playoff race...and the NFC North is NOT a impossibility, even if Peterson does not come back in 2014 from his legal issues (if ever). Rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater is a spark and this team plays together. This is not a elite team, but they are getting better. By the time the new Vikings stadium is ready in 2 years, this team could be ready to fly high...with (preferably...maybe) or without Peterson. That is big. A team must be bigger than one player. Beware of Minnesota.

6.       Washington (3-6):  Wow. Where do I begin? First, this team has some nice players on both sides of the ball. Acquiring WR DeSean Jackson is big, plus the free-agent signing of WR Andre Roberts, who hasn’t done a lot, but the more good to great receivers you have, the better. The defense needs work, but injuries haven’t helped and some good young players are being found here. How do you bring this team together, now and in the future? Second, the team’s biggest needs and questions is at quarterback and secondary, especially safety. First year coach Jay Gruden inherits a tough situation that will only get worse the rest of 2014 and especially next year. This team gave up 3 1^st round picks over 3 years for the chance to draft former Heisman winner Robert Griffin III as the 2^nd overall pick in 2012. They also drafted MSU QB Kirk Cousins in the 4^th round of that same draft. When healthy and allowed to play his way (in a read-option style offense) Griffin is good. In certain situations, so is Cousins. 
    But neither has shown they are THE answer at QB for the next 8-10 years, for different reasons. Cousins doesn’t have all the tools and skills to be a consistent starter, but he is a good backup/emergency option. Griffin is hard-headed and not as adaptable to being a pocket passer as some would want. Moreover, he is injury-prone. Blame it on his playing style, or whatever. He can make great plays with his arm and his legs….on the run. But can he be anywhere near as good throwing from the pocket if he cannot run? AND NOT GET HURT? It is not looking like it to me. Worse yet, this team has done little to address the problem of having not good safeties, which has not been solved since the tragic loss of Sean Taylor several years ago. This cannot be fixed right now. But the team has to decide whether to re-sign one or both QBs, and that will be expensive especially with strong young RB Alfred Morris (6^th round in 2012) also due (and deserving of) a BIG payday extension and I don’t think they can resign everyone at full market value. Win or not in 2014, the Redskins have a lot to consider and decide on for 2015 and beyond. Tough choices, indeed.

Thursday Night Football (NFL Network/CBS): Cleveland at Cincinnati: Huge game! This is a game for the AFC North lead. If the struggling Bengals win, they add to a half-game lead. If Cleveland wins, they take over first place for the moment. Honestly, most folk take the Bengals for the recent history of the futility by the Browns in road division games. They have a point, but this year has been strange, so something has to give, right? This could be one of those times.
 
    Who wins? Short and sweet…Cincinnati could have a multiple game lead in this division but they have worked hard to mess it up, the injury to WR A. J. Green notwithstanding. He is playing, but it will be cold and messy. Great weather for both teams. I love a good underdog and Cleveland QB Brian Hoyer, has that intangible thing that makes this team dangerous. I am taking Cleveland. Let's hope this doesn't go to OT (for there might be another tie!)

Cleveland 27 Cincinnati 24 (OT)

Update: Well....big win for the Browns. They needed this. Can they keep it going? Cincinnati is in big trouble. Can they fix things and make the playoffs at all? Regardless, they also have tough choices to make. Much love and prayers to the Still family, no matter what happens. We all want that young lady to continue to fight and come back strong. Amen.

Sunday's games:

Dallas at Jacksonville: Wembley Stadium in London: The final NFL game in London for 2014 looks boring, but has some intrigue. Dallas is struggling with injured star QB Tony Romo having back issues again. He missed last week's loss to get better for this game. Why is Romo risking himself here when the team's bye is next week...and they need it? Dallas cannot win without Romo...period. Lose this game and the playoffs are in jeopardy...again this year. For the Jaguars, this is their Super Bowl. I sense they will be ready across the pond.

    Who wins? Romo will protect himself and get that win for Dallas. The Jags will fight and may hurt Romo again...if they can get to him. Good luck. Dallas can run the ball with RB DeMarco Murray and they will pass just enough to get it done. Let's hope so....I am not watching this game much. Dallas wins.

Dallas 28 Jacksonville 24

San Francisco at New Orleans: The Niners looked bad in losing late to the Rams. I don't blame QB Colin Kaepernick for the loss, but why didn't RB Frank Gore get a shot on the goal line to win the game? Whatever. This team is in trouble. The Saints are a different team at home and few teams can beat them here. You know why...and TE Jimmy Graham is getting stronger. Oops.
   
    Who wins? The Niners only got 10 points at HOME against the Rams. How are they going to stop QB Drew Brees and the Saints in the SuperDome when they are desperate and nearly unbeatable? Answer: The Niners don't. Sorry, Nupe, but the Saints are too good at home. Saints win again.

New Orleans 35 San Francisco 31      
 
Miami at Detroit: Both teams are surprising folk and both might be playoff teams. Someone will take a step back if they lose here. Miami's injuries are starting to add up. but...they are not done. Detroit has had WR Calvin Johnson injured most of the year, yet they are winning. Wow! Johnson is back and this game is at home. Detroit needs home field-clinching wins....but so does Miami.

    Who wins? Miami has survived a lot to be still in the playoff race. But so has Detroit. Detroit's surprisingly strong defense, despite (dumb) injuries, is the difference in this game. Simple as that. I am taking the Lions at Ford Field. Miami is coming, but are not there yet. Sorry.

Detroit 31 Miami 23

Kansas City at Buffalo: The move to change QBs in Buffalo has helped a lot. But their luck is running out, along with the lack of running game, due to injuries. How many more games can they steal? The Chiefs are in a similar spot. I don't think much of either team right now. Not much else to say.

   Who wins? The Chiefs can win this game, but they are too shaky for me. Buffalo may be getting people back, and that, plus the home field will allow them to win this game, before that weather vortex hits the North this week and freezes everyone. Buffalo QB Kyle Orton has found a home in Buffalo, but can he lead them to the playoffs. Win this, and the notice gets bigger. Bills get it done.

Buffalo 28 Kansas City 27

 Pittsburgh at the New York Jets: Big Ben is HOT! He threw for 6 TDs the last two weeks, setting a rare NFL record. Now he gets the totally broken Jets. He may set more records this week, if they don't get cocky. They are in this AFC North race with Cleveland crushing the Bengals, who did that to Baltimore twice, who did it to Pittsburgh earlier before the Steelers did the same back last week. Get all that? The Jets...what a mess! What else can I say?

    Who wins? If QB Ben Roethlisberger doesn't get at least 3-4 TD passes in this game..something is wrong. They cannot blow this game after the high of beating the Ravens. They need this win to make the playoffs and prevent being screwed out of such like last year. Jets have no chance...even at home. Steelers win.

Pittsburgh 38 New York Jets 17

New York Giants at Seattle: Okay..Seattle is finding out that being the defending champs is not easy. Not at all. They got by winless Oakland, but didn't look great. The Giants are not that much better. Still, another loss may kill their weakening division chances, so they had better get the win and keep it moving. The Giants don't have enough left to keep the Seahawks contained.

    Who wins? If Seattle plays the way they did against Oakland or Dallas, they will lose. Assuming, Giants QB Eli Manning does NOT throw a lot of interceptions. Seattle still has the Legion of Boom....and the boom comes down on Eli and friends...again. The champs win at home.

Seattle 30 New York Giants 21

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: This game was supposed to mean more at this point in the season. NOT. Both teams suck, but the division race is not over for either team. Go figure. The winner stays in...barely. The loser is done. Simple as that. Pick 'em game.

    Who wins? Atlanta cannot win on the road (meaning outdoors), period. They couldn't even keep Detroit down on a neutral field. Tampa can get a big upset here. I think they will. Not sure why. Bucs win...barely.

Tampa Bay 30 Atlanta 28

St. Louis at Arizona:  Arizona has found ways to win, despite injury and more and they are the class of the NFL. Did QB Carson Palmer deserve that contract extension NOW? I am not convinced yet. Sorry. Win this one and they clinch a non-losing season. The Rams are flying high after upsetting the Niners on the road. Arizona is tougher. But can these young and injury depleted Rams steal another division win?
 
   Who wins? This a big-time trap game, but then again, almost all of the Arizona games have been that so far. The Cardinals realize the big picture and know not to let the Rams steal their momentum. They had better not. The Super Bowl will be in Arizona. Will the road of the NFC playoffs flow through here, too? Maybe. Cardinals win again.

Arizona 30 St. Louis 24

Tennessee at Baltimore: Baltimore is in trouble after the loss to the Bengals, but the division title is still in reach. Tennessee is trying to start building...something. The Ravens need to be desperate right now, and win the games they should win. This is one of them. Not much else to say.

   Who wins? Cold weather in Baltimore is coming. These Ravens do get dangerous in November and December. The Titans don't have enough stability to win this game on the road. Sorry. Baltimore wins this one.

Baltimore 27 Tennessee 20

Denver at Oakland: Denver is limping into Oakland after another Tom Brady (and Patriots) beat-down. They need road wins bad, and this is the easiest one. Come on, Manning virtually never loses in division since coming to Denver. The Raiders have hung well with some top teams, but still hasn't won. How can they beat Denver?

   Who wins? Forget the records. Oakland is a spoiler team that should scare everyone. This should be easy for Denver, but assuming a big win at Oakland will be a big mistake. Denver couldn't beat Seattle or New England and a worse Raiders team almost beat them both ON THE ROAD! Major upset alert! Raiders win on that crappy field and end the losing streak with a big upset! Denver, don't let Manning get hit here or bad things will happen. Mark my words! But really, Denver will survive...again. Bummer. Denver wins.

Denver 31 Oakland 28 (OT)

Sunday Night Football: Chicago at Green Bay: This will be a war! But this may well be one-sided...again. Green Bay has already crushed the struggling Bears in Chicago. Chicago has done better on the road, but this one is extra hard. Green Bay needs to win to stay with Detroit in the NFC North, and as long as QB Aaron Rodgers is playing, this team is dangerous. The Bears...not so much.


    Who wins? Seriously? The Bears can run and control the clock...but not at Green Bay. This year's Bears cannot stop Rodgers and their offense is too shaky to score a lot. Green Bay wins and takes care of business (and the season series).

Green Bay 28  Chicago 20


Monday Night Football: Carolina at Philadelphia: The Panthers don't look great and especially on the road. The NFC South as a whole sucks, but at least the Saints are showing life, but many late home games is a factor. The Eagles were flying high before losing to Arizona and then losing starting QB Nick Foles for a while (collarbone). Can QB Mark Sanchez help carry this team until Foles can return? With that defense and if RBs LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles get hot...yes they can.

   Who wins? It is getting cold now, and the Panthers are colder. QB Cam Newton has not sparked this team and their lack of a running game and now, good defense has shown how weak they really are. Sorry, but the Eagles are stronger. They win.

Philadelphia 30 Carolina 24


Bonus picks: 

1. NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup: Race 9: Eliminator Round Finale: Phoenix): This race is now everything for the final 8 in the Chase. No one is safe, unless Chase cars go out early. They will fight like they did at Talledega, without the speed and big laps. Either you win or finish top 5 or you are done. If all 8 finish high (very possible), every lap led and bonus point will matter. High tempers will happen after this race. If you don't want to see violence after the race....keep your kids away, but it will be must-see TV.


Prediction: I think that the final 50 laps will be wild, classic and crazy! All 8 Chase drivers will fight. One or two will be knocked back in the middle of the race. Two to four Chasers will fight for the win in this race and get in. The other 3 who go for the title......could be anyone. Literally. Watch this race from the start (on the split screen). Trust me.

The Final Four: Drivers who will race for the Championship at Homestead:

1.      Joey Logano: Logano has raced like a seasoned veteran all year. In the Chase, he got a win in the first two rounds to advance and finished well everywhere else. 21 top-10 finishes in 34 races says a lot about consistency and how good he is. His teammate gets more headlines, but Logano can race, too. He has proved it and will now get his credit, especially if his teammate doesn't make it.

2.      Denny Hamlin: After a injury and crash-filled season last year, and the disappointment of having a championship taken away from him by Jimmie Johnson a few years ago, Hamlin is in a position of redemption. True, he has one win, but 16 top-10 finishes so far is nice. Remember half of the original 16 Chase drivers had either one or zero wins when the Chase field was set after Richmond in September. Hamlin has been a steady driver all year, and that, and being tied for first in the standings with Logano, gives him a chance to win it all. Okay, I am biased since Hamlin is from my hometown, but he has earned this position with little fanfare and great driving. He can take a big step to elite driver if he wins today!

3.      Jeff Gordon: Four-time has more titles than the other seven remaining Chasers combined. True, he has not been closet to a championship race in years, but he has proven he can do it, along with 4 wins and 21 top-tens. With the other Hendrick drivers out, this may be Gordon’s last true shot at championship number 5. Win or lose (or more fights with Brad K), Gordon is a (future) Hall of Fame driver and gentleman. This new Chase format worked better for him than most.

4.      Brad Keselowski: Forget the words, forget the recent incidents and fights with other Chase drivers. Keselowski can drive. True, it is closer to the style of 7-time champ Dale Earnhardt, Sr., but he gets wins, and doesn’t (usually) wreck anyone and apologizes when he is wrong. Earnhardt did no such thing. This is a win-and-you advance race. Keselowski has shown he can get it done when such comes up. Could any of the others? Remember how he won the 2012 title in the old Chase format, beating all 4 Hendrick cars, plus Harvick and others with a allegedly-inferior (lame duck: Dodge) car with no real help (Logano wasn’t as good then.)? He could race his way in, just like he did at Talledega by winning late, and he is not as many points out (5 behind 4^th place Gordon, 17^th from the first place tie of Logano and Hamlin) as he was then. Lightning strikes again. And more fighting after the race.

Drivers eliminated from the Chase after Phoenix: 

1.      Ryan Newman: He has had a great season, especially in this format since he still has not won a race, and has fewer top-10s than almost all of the other 15 Chase drivers. I am not convinced he will drive well enough to make the final 4, or be desperate enough if he gets a chance to clinch that spot. Worse yet, I can see someone else, Chase driver or otherwise taking him out, accident or not. Sorry.

2.      Matt Kenseth: Same situation as Newman, but he is a former champ, and his championship year with one win is the reason the Chase came about in the first place. He is good and also consistent, but having fewer top-5s and top-10s than other drivers and NO wins. He can get in without a win, but I can’t see him making it into the championship finalist spot next week without one. Sorry.

3.      Kevin Harvick: Great year, very consistent, has 3 wins and 18 top-tens. My concern is that he will race too hard and get wrecked at Phoenix, despite a great skill set. He has lost too many races he has dominated, and being last in the standings, he virtually needs a win to get to the finale as a finalist. Can he do it? Yes. Will he? No. 

4.      Carl Edwards: He has a drive to finish high, with him leaving for Joe Gibbs in 2015 and his crew chief retiring and going to NBC’s new NASCAR coverage next year. He scratched and clawed to get his team this far. Barring a upset win, I think the Chase will end here for the Rousch driver.