NFL Picks Week 11
Last week, my picks did okay. Even with some surprises, I went 8-5. A couple of late upsets prevented a 10-win week. Okay, lets try to keep the momentum going with the 14 games this week.
Fantasy football people, please note, this is the next to last week of byes! Four teams are on bye this week? This is crazy. The NFL schedule-maker is dumb. This scheduling makes no sense and less so as we go. Fantasy football playoffs are approaching, so it is time to get serious NOW!!!!
Season to date: 70-76-1 after ten weeks. I am getting better at this!
Bonus picks: 2-1 last week, 33-19 to this point. The NASCAR race went as expected, except for Harvick dominating and winning at his best track. Newman's last lap move to get that last spot to get to the finale This is the pressure of the Chase. Do what you must to advance! Expect all of that and more, times 4 in Sunday's finale at Homestead. Watch this race....especially the final 100 laps and the finish and see a new NASCAR Sprint Cup champion crowned!!!
Teams with the (late) Week 11 bye:
1. Dallas (7-3): The Cowboys are improved from last year's disaster, but there is a lot of work to be done. Is this the year they finally get back in the playoffs? I don't know. RB DeMarco Murray has done big work all year, but does he have enough to finish? Can Tony Romo's back and body finish the season and get Dallas in the playoffs, without screwing it up (again)? Can the defense, which has done much better than expected, get it done down the stretch? We will have to see, but if it comes down to the finale at Washington....I don't like their odds.
2. Baltimore (6-4): The Ravens have had a lot of adversity, and many highs and many lows. The two losses to Cincinnati and one to the Steelers have hurt, but their wins have been big and the craziness of the AFC North actually has them in this race and one game out with Cleveland the leader and the other teams looking...glazed, for lack of a better term. They cannot bet on getting a wild-card berth so they may need to run the table to get in the playoffs, which is possible, since the two meeting with the Steelers and Bengals are past. But controversy, injury or not, QB Joe Flacco and company have no margin for error now.
3. Jacksonville (1-9): This is a rebuilding year. We all knew that. The Jaguars hoped to be a little better than this, and not to have to use rookie 1st round pick Blake Bortles in 2014. But that didn't last long. Bortles may be better for playing in 2014, despite the losses. QB Derek Carr in Oakland can likely say the same. But this team will be better, and sooner (if they draft and do free agency right the next 1-3 years) rather than later. They have given a lot of (so-called) good teams scares, some on the road. If they keep their head up, when the current AFC powers have to reload and/or rebuild (and that is soon) they may be looking up to the Jaguars. Patience can be a good thing.
4. New York Jets (2-8): The Jets are a mess. They have been for a while. Blame who you like: the GM for not getting better talent, coach Rex Ryan for not developing what he got into a contending team the last 2-3 years, or young QB Geno Smith for just not living up to the hype of his high pick in the draft 2 years ago. The Jets now are close to where Oakland was a few years ago. And they need some time to rebuild, and better people to get it done with. If Ryan is fired, as many expect, who could turn this around....or want to come here? Same for the GM. Maybe also for the starting QB...and no, Michael Vick is NOT a long-term answer. The Jets have a lot to do to fix things. But will ownership do the right moves, both on the field and in the front office, and will it translate into wins or more misery for long-suffering Jets Nation?
Thursday Night Football (NFL Network/CBS): Buffalo at Miami: Huge game! This is a game for two teams with shaky hopes at a AFC wildcard berth. Both teams have weapons, but both have question marks at quarterback and lots of injuries. Buffalo’s running back injury issues are well documented, but Miami has some of the same too. This is not the most enticing TNF game on the schedule, but the game’s results may matter later.
Who wins? Short and sweet…This may be a defensive struggle, especially since neither team has a great QB starting tonight, nor has much of a running game to speak of. This would have been more fun (to watch on TV, not for anyone in the stadium) if this game was in Buffalo considering the bad weather up north, but we will see fun in the snow soon enough. Both are 5-4. The winner stays in a very tight and packed wild-card race, the loser may be all but done, barring a lot of late collapses by the teams ahead of them. This is a total pick-em game, so I am going with the home team in a close one.
Miami 24 Buffalo 21 (OT)
Update: UGH! Glad I played ball instead of watching this game. Crazy. If you win the game, ugly works. Miami did what it had to do to win. Can they make the playoffs after the ugliness of 2013 likely cost them a playoff spot? Maybe. We will see.
Sunday's games:
Minnesota at Chicago: The Adrian Peterson saga continues and may come to a (interim) conclusion next week, but he won’t be playing this Sunday. The Vikings have fought hard to be almost respectable to this point, a tall task considering all of the turmoil surrounding this team. The Bears, simply put, look like (bleep). The two losses to Green Bay, especially last Sunday night emphasize that point. Perhaps most of the blame should fall on struggling QB Jay Cutler, but injuries on both sides of the ball and just plain lack of execution, especially at home has doomed this proud franchise to a bad season. At this point, pride is all the Bears have left to play for 2014. The Vikings may have a slim chance at the playoffs, so a win could mean a lot, especially if Peterson is allowed to return to play (I will discuss that in a separate blog entry later in the week) and if so, if he is anywhere close to the top-level RB he has been until this year. We will see.
Who wins? The current state of the Bears make this a little harder to pick. I would like to think pride might get the Bears to win this game, since Minnesota is far from a complete team. But the Bears have sucked at home and I see nothing to convince me that will change here, since the Vikings may actually have (a slim) something to play for. Vikings win.
Minnesota 27 Chicago 23
Houston at Cleveland: First place Cleveland Browns. Sounds strange doesn't it? But it is true. Cleveland leads the AFC North for the moment with seven games to go. They largely control their own destiny for a improbable playoff spot. The Texans were trying to bounce back from a nasty 2013 season, but have not completely done so. They are not done for a playoff spot yet, but with 11 AFC teams with fewer losses than them right now, the Texans would have to win out and get help to make the playoffs. This game is almost a playoff elimination game, kind of like the Thursday night game was. This could be a fun game, especially since it likely will be real cold in Cleveland.
Who wins?Houston is desperate, but who is more desperate for a playoff shot than the Browns. They also have momentum with a 3 game winning streak, hope, belief, and QB Brian Hoyer and these young Browns, as a team, are better than they are as individuals. I am going to ride the wave and take the Browns to win again.
Cleveland 27 Houston 20
San Francisco at the New York Giants: The Giants are playing for pride now. Injuries, forced retirements and plain bad luck has ruined this season. No, it is not all QB Eli Manning's fault or coach Tom Couglin's fault. The coach may be gone at the end of the year, but he would get offers from at least 2-3 teams almost immediately thereafter. Keep that in mind. The Niners are 5-4 and are barely in the wild-card race. They have 3 teams between them and a wild-card berth (I am not betting on them winning the NFC West being 3 games and tie-breaker down with seven to play.). After this game, four of the final six are at home, including the home and home with Seattle and the other road game at Oakland (no sure thing). Having beat Dallas and Philly already, the Niners need to win 5 of those final 6 to make the playoffs (betting on a split with Seattle). They lost defensive leader MLB Patrick Willis to IR this week (toe), but get back LB Aldon Smith from suspension as well. Can Smith give this D a needed push to replace Willis and other injured Niners. Maybe. This game may not show it, but the next two at home (Washington, Seattle 4 days later on Thanksgiving night) will definitely set the tone. Can the Niners get it done?
Who wins? The Niners has survived a lot to be still in the playoff race. Simple as that. They need some dominant wins. This is one of the three opponents left where they can do it, but it will be cold in New Jersey. No excuses, Niners must win...and they will get...this win. The other games....not so easy. I am taking San Francisco...with some doubt.
San Francisco 28 New York Giants 24
Cincinnati at New Orleans: This game has playoff intrigue…just not quite the way we were expecting weeks ago. The Bengals are in a funk and are a half-game out of first in a ultra-competitive AFC North. They need almost to win out to make the playoffs. The Saints, despite four road losses (and 5 overall after last weeks OT loss to the Niners at home) are LEADING the now-pathetic NFC South where NO ONE is above .500. This is the second of 3 straight home games and a must win, though....if Carolina and Atlanta keep losing (the Panthers are on bye next week), the Saints may win this division by default. If so, this would be strange, but would also keep up the string of different division winners every year here. The Bengals offense looks bad. The Saints offense is great at home, but the Niners got the breaks at the end of regulation and the turnover (Brees fumble) in OT to get them a win. The Saints must play better or risk blowing their slim advantage and a playoff berth too. (The South winner will NOT be better than a 4 seed, that is almost assured unless the Saints win out).
Who wins? The Bengals have lucked into a lot of wins, survived injuries galore, but blowing that OT win at home against the Panthers (settling for a tie) could bite them. Teams with ties sometimes get saved by that tie come playoff time...but in this case, that tie may keep them out, unless they start winning again. The Saints smell blood in the (division's) water and they must start going in for the kill NOW. This is a must-win game. This time, the Saints won't blow it, for the Bengals in a lot of ways, are not close to being the Niners. Saints win.
New Orleans 30 Cincinnati 24
Denver at St. Louis: The Broncos seem to be cruising for the playoffs, BUT they only have a one game lead on the Chiefs and must go to KC for SNF soon. They are already behind East leader New England (head to head loss) and the other two division leaders are right behind them (though they beat the Colts in Week 1). With four of the next six on the road (and the home game versus Miami is no sure thing) the Broncos cannot slip now in St. Louis (or at home versus Buffalo AND/OR possibly in the finale versus the Raiders either) to get a top-2 playoff seed. The Rams are in shambles due to so many injuries and little hope. This game is their Super Bowl for 2014.
Who wins? These Rams don't have the manpower or the firepower to stop Denver anywhere. But if Denver starts turning the ball over, like they did at Oakland in the first half...and the Rams score points from that....upsets can happen. Seriously, Denver QB Peyton Manning will not let that happen. There will be a scare, but Denver wins again.
Denver 38 St. Louis 28
Seattle at Kansas City: Okay..Seattle is finding out that being the defending champs is not easy. Not at all. They got by winless Oakland, but didn't look great. They have struggled almost all year, and now see themselves potentially missing the playoffs because Arizona may not collapse, even with their starting QB gone for the year. Seattle might have to win out to just make the playoffs. The Chiefs are in a similar spot. They can still steal the AFC West if Denver blows some of those remaining road games, but they also have to win to stay in a favorable wild-card spot with so many teams still in the mix. QB Alex Smith has done his job, but this team could be in a better place. But they know that if Denver and NE falter, the Chiefs could steal the top AFC playoff seed, and that could mean everything for a rare playoff run.. Still, another loss may kill their weakening division chances, so they had better get the win and keep it moving. This game will be tight.
Who wins? If Seattle plays the way they did against Oakland or Dallas, they will lose. Worse yet, it will be cold or worse in KC and we know how shaky the Seahawks are away from home. Seattle still has the Legion of Boom....but that may not be enough here. I am taking the Chiefs in a rare upset.
Kansas City 31 Seattle 30
Atlanta at Carolina: This game was supposed to mean more at this point in the season. NOT. Both teams suck, but the division race is not over for either team. Go figure. The winner stays in...barely. The loser is done. Simple as that. Pick 'em game.
Who wins? Atlanta cannot win on the road (meaning outdoors), period. They couldn't even keep Detroit down on a neutral field. Carolina is in shambles and we all know QB Cam Newton is injured, but won't sit down. As long as these teams still have a shot to win the NFC South, their starting QBs will play through mostly anything. Unfortunately Carolina has fallen a lot and Atlanta has came back up..some. Still, the Falcons outdoors is not a good thing and it won't be warm in Charlotte. Somehow, Carolina get this win, even if backup QB Derek Anderson has to finish the game.
Carolina 30 Atlanta 28
Detroit at Arizona: Arizona has found ways to win, despite injury and more and they are the class of the NFL...for now. Did QB Carson Palmer deserve that contract extension NOW? I am not convinced yet. Worse yet, Palmer tears up his knee last week and is out for the year...again. Sorry. Now what? Detroit has pulled off some stunning wins, even without all-world WR Calvin Johnson. He is back now and Detroit has that 1 game (and tie-breaker) lead over Green Bay. Can the Lions hang on and make the playoffs? They need this road win. Arizona can take one loss, since they have beaten every NFC contender on their schedule so far (only loss was at Denver). But with a home and home with Seattle, road finale at SF, and a tough game with KC, and at Atlanta and St. Louis left, they have no assurance of finishing on top, especially with Palmer (and others) gone. But this game will be wild and desperate and fun to watch.
Who wins? Detroit has stolen a few wins they had no right winning already. If there is a time to face Arizona, now may be the time with Palmer down. But both teams have found a way to win. I have to say, the final edge is in the coaching. If Arizona coach Bruce Arians is not the Coach of the Year, who the hell is? He will find a way to win this game..or Detroit will give it to them. Prove me wrong, Detroit! The Super Bowl will be in Arizona. Will the road of the NFC playoffs flow through here, too? Maybe. It is looking more possible. That is scary. Cardinals win again.
Arizona 30 Detroit 24
Philadelphia at Green Bay: This game is the likely game of the week other than the SNF showdown.
You know the players. This will be a war. The winner improves their playoff position in their division and in the NFC. The loser falls back and endangers their position earlier. With both looking up to Arizona and Detroit (WTF????), this is a must-win!!!
Who wins? Philly is good, but Mark Sanchez, much less injured QB Nick Foles, is no Aaron Rodgers. While the Green Bay home mystique has been lessened in recent years, it is still there and I am not betting against GB. Packers win.
Green Bay 34 Philadelphia 31 (OT)
Tampa Bay at Washington: Few care about this game. In DC everyone does. This is the time to assess QB Robert Griffin III. Is he a franchise QB or not? He was decent in the loss to Minnesota 2 weeks ago, but should he have played? Tampa just sucks and we know they suck in cold-weather road games, but it will be REALLY bad if Washington loses this game, especially in a blowout. This will not be a great game except for those with fantasy players in this game..,like me.
Who wins? Griffin will not prove or disprove anything with this one game...but with that said....if he plays like (bleep) in this game AT HOME with harder road games (SF, IND) coming up next, this will not be a good sign. The only thing we know for sure that he may well be talented, but injury-prone....not a great combination. The Bucs cannot take advantage of this, unless Washington gives the game to them. They had better (bleeping) not! Washington wins.
Washington 28 Tampa Bay 24
Oakland at San Diego: Can Oakland avoid 0-16? With the remaining schedule they face, the odds don’t look good. But knowing that most of these teams need to beat Oakland to help playoff chances and/or seeding, they cannot overlook this team. The Chargers came very close to losing in Oakland a few weeks ago. A late INT saved the Chargers from potentially at least overtime (or even a loss). These Chargers are struggling now and must win to keep playoff hopes alive that seemed a little brighter back then.
Who wins? Forget the records. Oakland is a spoiler team that should scare everyone. The Chargers need this win and will get this one at home. But it won't be easy. But really, San Diego will survive...again. Bummer. San Diego wins.
San Diego 31 Oakland 28 (OT)
Sunday Night Football: New England at Indianapolis: This will be a war! The Patriots have been on fire of late, but the Colts are dangerous. This will be a QB duel between future HOF QB Tom Brady of New England and former top overall pick Andrew Luck of the Colts. Brady and friends have already beat the QB Luck replaced in Indy, Denver QB Peyton Manning..but it was at home. Can they beat Luck on the road?
Who wins? From a scoring standpoint, this could be one of the highest scoring games of the year, and there is no bad weather to screw with this (playing in a dome). Brady has owned Luck in a couple of meetings, but I think Luck is due at home this time. Enjoy the fireworks! I am taking the Colts.
Indianapolis 38 New England 37
Monday Night Football: Pittsburgh at Tennessee: This game seemed like a no-brainer…until last Sunday. The Steelers laid a big egg at the Jets, losing to their second one win team (Jacksonville) of this season. How can a team whose QB set a NFL record with 2 consecutive 6 TD games very recently play so bad against teams they should beat? Not sure…but injuries and mistakes don’t help. Pittsburgh had plenty of both last week, and with all-world S Troy Polamalu out for this game (like last Sunday), they have plenty to worry about as they fight for either the AFC South title or a wild-card berth. Blow another winnable game like this and the Steelers could be kissing both opportunities goodbye. The Titans have a chance to score a big upset at home.
Who wins? It is getting cold now, and the Steelers need this win. No excuses for losing this one on the road. A loss here could cost Pittsburgh a playoff berth. Literally. The Titans know this. Go get them, Titans. Music City Miracle II here on MNF. Titans win a big upset.
Tennessee 28 Pittsburgh 27
Bonus picks:
1.
NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup: Finale: Homestead
(Miami): This is the championship and final race of the Chase and the season. Real
simple situation:
Four drivers are eligible for the championship:
Kevin Harvick (won last week), Denny Hamlin (defending race winner), Joey
Logano and Ryan Newman. Whomever of these four drivers that finishes the
highest in this one race is the 2014 Sprint Cup champion. End of story. Even if the highest finisher of these four
finishes in 35th place, that driver is champion. No tiebreakers, no
points to consider. None of them have won the title before. Hamlin came the
closest, losing to Jimmie Johnson at this track 4 years ago on points. This
will be a war. WATCH THIS RACE!!!!!
Prediction: I think that the final 50 laps will be wild, classic and crazy! All 4 Chase finalists will fight to win their first Sprint Cup championship. One or two will be knocked back in the middle of the race but all could be there at the end. Harvick has momentum in winning at Phoenix. Logano is the defending champion at Homestead and redemption for losing the championship to Jimmie Johnson here 4 years ago is surely on his mind.
I am taking Denny Hamlin as my pick to become champion on Sunday. Harvick is due....but Hamlin will get his redemption for 2010 this Sunday. Logano will be a champ soon, but not yet. But no one count out Newman. If he gets to the front early, beware!
2. College Football: I am projecting at least 2 upsets. However, I am taking top-ranked Mississippi State over Alabama this afternoon.
Update: Got the upsets right, but Alabama got it done over Mississippi State. We will see how the new ranking shake out.
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