NFL Picks Week 8
Last week, my picks did real bad. Even with some surprises, I went 5-10. I did better with the pick'em leagues I am in. Go figure. Well, let me try to gain some more momentum with the 15 games this week.
Fantasy football people, please note, bye weeks continue! What…two teams on bye AGAIN this week? This is crazy. The NFL schedule-maker is dumb. This scheduling makes no sense and less so as we go.
Please note there is an EARLY London game this week and 6 teams on bye next week.
Season to date: 46-58-1 after seven weeks. Not great at all. Got to get better on these picks.
Bonus picks: 4-1 this week, 33-18 to this point. That was a wild race at Talledega, wasn't it? And you cannot beat the final 15 laps leading to the two green-white-checker finish attempts. That is how a race should end! And we have 4 more races to go! Anyway, Florida State survives with that controversial ending. You hate to see Notre Dame lose like that..but a penalty is a penalty. Still, the Irish does have a great shot at the playoff, but we have a ways to go. I will discuss the College Football playoff more in the near future.
Bye teams this week:
1. San Francisco (4-3): San Francisco is trying to get some traction after some tough early losses at home. However, they are the only team to beat Dallas to this point, which says something. They have had to deal with controversy, injuries and suspensions from the beginning. Being 4-3 is not so bad considering. They will get back LB Aldon Smith at some point in the next 3 weeks, which will be helpful. But consistency on both sides of the ball is vital, starting with QB Colin Kaepernick. Two games with Seattle and a rematch with division leader Arizona loom, but the Niners getting folk back and the (much) later bye than most of the division and the NFC (except Detroit (next week) and Dallas (2 weeks)) may prove to be the difference. But they have to win games from here on.
2. New York Giants (3-4): The Giants are trying to hang in, but with Dallas and Philadelphia having one loss each, it doesn't look good for Big Blue. Having to deal with running game issues from the beginning, starting with the forced retirement of David Wilson (neck) and the inconsistency of QB Eli Manning to the recent IR loss of WR Victor Cruz, the Giants may be done. But rookie WR Odell Beckham, Jr. may be really good. Unfortunately, I don't think the 2014 Giants have enough playmakers left on either side of the ball to rally all the way back without some serious help from their opponents. Manning is good, but he is not his brother Peyton nor a Rodgers or Brees who can throw for huge yards with just anyone. However, the NFC powers who must face the Giants down the road had better not overlook them. Isn't that how the Giants made the playoffs the last two times...and then went all the way? I believe so...
Thursday Night Football (NFL Network/CBS): San Diego at Denver: Huge game…Denver has been on fire and is in a happy mood after winning on SNF and with QB Peyton Manning breaking the career TD record. Nice. The Chargers are mad after choking at home to Kansas City after barely winning at Oakland last week. This is huge for the division race. The Chargers must win this game or they are toast. Also, the Chargers are the only team in the AFC West who has not been on bye yet. But can San Diego win?
Who wins? Short and sweet…This will be a fight. Denver looked like the top team Sunday night, but San Diego QB Phillip Rivers is one of the few QBs who can go pass for pass with Manning if his receivers do their jobs (meaning catch the ball). San Diego’s defense did do well against the Seahawks (before they started reeling) in a home win. Denver’s defense is much improved and better than the Chiefs’ D. Can SD do the unthinkable and win at Denver like they did last year? Yes, they can (remember Denver will have to come to SD later!) and they will. Letdown game for Denver and it will be cool, which does NOT help Manning. Chargers get the upset win with a late score. Last team who scores wins. Overtime will be not a surprise here.
San Diego 35 Denver 34
Update: Well, Denver wins again. But the Chargers put up a good fight. Denver has a lot of road games coming up. Let's see how they do.
Sunday's games:
Detroit at Atlanta: Game in London, England: PLEASE NOTE THE 930AM EASTERN TIME START TIME ON FOX! I am not sure what to say about this game. This is the second of the three London games for this year. Detroit came back like a real team to nip the Saints at the gun. They are still co-leaders in the NFC North with the tiebreaker (for now) over Green Bay. Atlanta was crushed at Baltimore and now have 5 losses, 4 on the road. Not good. Atlanta is totally done if they lose this “home” game in London. This game being outdoors helps neither team. Bottom line, between travel and injuries, neither team will look good in this game. Will Detroit WR Calvin Johnson travel to London (yes, he will), much less play (no idea), knowing the (both) team will be on bye after this game anyway to help recover from his injuries? Does anyone care? I don’t think I will sit there and watch this game (having watched my Raiders lose in London weeks ago)…but maybe I will.
Who wins? Both teams have nice QBs. This is a game that would be better in Detroit or Atlanta or a neutral site dome, not outdoors unless it was the playoffs. Detroit has much more to lose if they lose because they are in a playoff race. Beat the Falcons and they all but eliminate what we thought would be a potential challenger for the playoffs, like they did the Saints. Too bad Atlanta has already did themselves in by being unable to win (outdoors) on the road. The Falcons may rally with some wins after the bye (including at NO later) but it will be too little, too late. Even without Johnson, the Lions have found ways to win…and they have far more motivation than Atlanta does at this point. Detroit wins again.
Detroit 30 Atlanta 23
Chicago at New England: The Patriots are looking to be back in form after looking very lost earlier in the season. But they are starting to see injuries creep in again so that is a concern. The Bears are a strange team, having lost all three home games, yet look great on the road, a rare feat. This team is on the road at one of the tougher places to win as a road team in the past decade. Can the Bears pull off a major upset and stay in the NFC North race?
Who wins? Chicago is a dangerous team away from Soldier Field and the Patriots are not as invulnerable as usual due to injuries. Still, the Patriots are very tough at home and I am going with that, since Chicago’s defense and special teams are not near where they had been in recent years. In Brady and Belichick, I trust (not for much longer..lol). Patriots win again.
New England 30 Chicago 24
Minnesota at Tampa Bay: Minnesota is just barely in the playoff race in the NFC North, but that is more due to shaky teams ahead of them than anything else. Tampa Bay was supposed to be stronger in 2014, but that did not happen. Despite this and a 0-4 NFC record, the Bucs are only 21/2 games out of the NFC South lead. A win here could make things a little more interesting. Perhaps the resigning of DT Gerald McCoy may inspire this team to get a win? Maybe not. This is not a major game, so few will be watching. But this could be a interesting one.
Who wins? In 2-3 years, both of these teams may be NFC powers again. But not today. If Tampa is to get a home win this year, this may be their best shot. They will take advantage. Tampa Bay gets away with a win.
Tampa Bay 28 Minnesota 27
Miami at Jacksonville: This will be a yawner of a game. The Dolphins have been okay, but 3-3 is hardly inspiring. Now that lead RB Knowshown Moreno is on IR and the team still looks in disarray, Miami may become a quick afterthought though the return of DE Dion Jordan from suspension may help. The Jaguars crushed a overconfident Browns squad for their first win. A win here would give them a (recently) rare 2 game win streak and a big win over the other AFC Florida team. Can they do it?
Who wins? Miami needs to win games like this to be a playoff team. Why am I not convinced they will? Because Miami is not a playoff team. Not yet. I am taking Jacksonville in an mid-major upset, because I can.
Jacksonville 24 Miami 21
Buffalo at the New York Jets: The Bills have surprised a lot by being in this AFC East race, but more so with two wins since QB Kyle Orton became the starter over young E.J. Manuel. However, the good times may be over with the loss of their best two running backs for most of the remainder of the regular season. Even with rookie WR Sammy Watkins, this is NOT a big time offense, especially with no running game.
The Jets plain suck. Having not won since Week 1, this may be the Jets’ last stand for embattled coach Rex Ryan. Their surprise trade for WR Percy Harvin from Seattle after last Thursday’s loss to the Patriots emphasize that desperation….but this team needs playmakers. Despite his talents, Harvin is simply…a talented, but injury-prone little ******* who needs to get his ass kicked to show his true place on a team. Injuries got him out of Minnesota. Being a wannabe tough guy got him out of Seattle, despite his (overall) small help in Seattle’s championship team last year. Shaky QB Geno Smith needs help to get better, but Harvin alone is not enough….but improvements is more for 2015…and perhaps for the next coach of the Jets.
Who wins? …Buffalo can look like a real playoff team if they win…and they must beat inferior opponents…though right now….which team is the inferior one? I am taking Buffalo..but in another nail-biter. Harvin may help the Jets this year…but not enough today. Too bad.
Buffalo 28 New York Jets 24
Seattle at Carolina: The story of this week in Seattle has gone from the surprise trade of Seattle WR Percy Harvin to the New York Jets for a conditional pick to TWO LOSSES IN A ROW? SEATTLE LOST TO…THE RAMS??? WTF??? The Seahawks are now learning that it is NOT so easy to be a defending champion. This is why recent Super Bowl winners have not been making the playoffs the following year. As it stands now, Seattle would NOT be in the playoffs. And for the most part, the schedule gets no easier the rest of the way. Despite the collapse of the Carolina defense, the collapse of the entire NFC South leaves the defending division champions in first place. Barely. Their bye week cannot come soon enough, but this is a chance to steal a win over a reeling champion at home and avenge last year’s Week 1 loss. Good luck with that.
Who wins? The Harvin trade will not change the result much. Seattle is nowhere near as good on the road, but they still can do damage, if they can stop screwing up. Carolina QB Cam Newton can lead the offense and get points, but the defense looks not so good. Carolina wins this one...somehow…but they had better fix that defense fast.
Carolina 31 Seattle 30
St. Louis at Kansas City: The battle of Missouri comes at a fun time with the Kansas City Royals making a rare appearance in the World Series. They are now in a best of 3 with the Giants (series is 2-2 with Game 5 in SF on Sunday night and the Series returns to conclude in Kansas City in midweek. The Chiefs are trying to hang tough in the AFC, but they need some wins. St. Louis really sucks, but they are better than they look. I smell upset here.
Who wins? The Rams are shaky away from the dome, but the Chiefs’ vaunted home field advantage has shown cracks. They need this game to make things interesting in the playoff race. The Rams are spoilers and beating this team will help this team a lot. I think the Chiefs will be overconfident and blow this one. Rams get a big upset here.
St. Louis 27 Kansas City 24 (OT)
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: The Colts are in decent shape with a 2 game lead in the AFC South, but they need to keep winning to improve their potential playoff position. The Steelers are in the conversation, but they are close to falling out of the playoff race. A loss here may take care of that, for the most part. They have dealt with injury and division losses, but four losses in the competitive AFC may be too many at this point. But home wins can make things better.
Who wins? The Steelers will fight, as they always do. But Colts QB Andrew Luck and the Colts are on a mission and need to keep winning to get home-field in the playoffs. Are they getting close to playoff form? Not yet, but they may be close. That will be too much for these Steelers. Colts win.
Indianapolis 27 Pittsburgh 23
Philadelphia at Arizona: BIRD WAR!!! Game of the Week???? Perhaps. The Eagles fly west to face the surprise NFC West leaders in a huge game for both teams. The winner gains more control over their destiny. The loser falls back closer to the pack of teams looking for a wild-card berth. This game will be good. Watch it.
Who wins? The Cardinals have looked like a playoff team, despite everything, but their lucky start has to stall sometime. Philly looks good, but not perfect, and games in the division against Dallas are coming. They need this one for possible playoff seeding. The Eagles should have beat SF and could have been undefeated now. I see another upset here. Cardinals score a big win at home.
Arizona 35 Philadelphia 34
Baltimore at Cincinnati: The complexity of this game has changed a LOT since these teams met in Week 1. Baltimore got beat then and then had even more controversy in the next couple of weeks in particular. But they have overcome and are flying high (forgive the pun) right now. Cincinnati looked to be on fire. They were one of the last unbeaten teams and looked good. Then, WR A.J. Green got hurt. Now the Bengals are very shaky. Can they right this ship? Maybe, but winning this game is a major start.
Who wins? Baltimore needs this win bad…but so do the Bengals. Can the Bengals beat the Ravens on the road, who has QB Joe Flacco and all their weapons without Green? Right. I don’t thinks so either, Ravens win.
Baltimore 27 Cincinnati 24
Houston at Tennessee: The Texans are in the
playoff race, but having fallen further behind the Colts, they may have to win
out to even get a wild-card berth. The Titans are starting a rookie at QB with
Jake Locker still battling injury. Houston may get their first round pick back this week, and they can use the help.
Who wins? This is a trap game for Houston, but I think they will win over a rookie no one has heard of. If they lose, this will be a hard one to swallow, especially if it prevents the Texans from making the playoffs. Houston wins.
Houston 24 Tennessee 23
Oakland at Cleveland: Okay…late pm start? Why? Cleveland inexplicable loss to Jacksonville has them upset. Oakland is the last winless team but has taken their last two opponents to their limits. Cleveland doesn’t have what those team have so they are prime for a upset, even at home. Oakland is losing defenders to IR, but regain CB D.J. Hayden as well, which can help give Cleveland QB Brian Hoyer problems. Still no sign of rookie QB Johnny Manziel, but if he must play in this game, Cleveland is toast…if they are not already.
Who wins? Forget the records. Oakland is a spoiler team that should scare everyone. This is also their first of 6 division games (plus the four games against the NFC West later). This year's schedule is hell on this division and the NFC West. 0-16 is possible, but I see upsets coming. Here is the first. Cleveland may be refocused after losing to the winless Jags, but that won’t save them here. Raiders win.
Oakland 28 Cleveland 27
Sunday Night Football: Green Bay at New Orleans: This will be a war! Green Bay is rolling and is confident. New Orleans needs wins to stay in a shaky division race. They must win at home to have a chance. Green Bay is one of the tougher of those home games. A loss here would give them 5 losses, which may be enough to keep them out of the playoffs entirely. Pressure on the Packers Big pressure on the Saints and Brees.
Who wins? This will be a war of offenses. The defenses will get hurt here. QB Drew Brees must be perfect, for his running backs are hurt and Green Bay does have good defense. Can he score enough at home to stay ahead of QB Aaron Rodgers and the Pack on national TV? On this night, yes. For the rest of the season…I have my doubts. Saints win in a shootout.
New Orleans 45 Green Bay 42 (OT)
Monday Night Football: Washington at Dallas: Toss the records. Washington vs Dallas on MNF is always entertaining and huge. Period. Washington got a win over Tennessee at home to end the losing streak. But it took inserting 3rd string QB Colt McCoy to do it. If injured starter Robert Griffin III could play in this game…that would be huge. But I am reasonably sure he cannot. Maybe the next game or not until after their bye. If it is benched backup Kurt Cousins or McCoy starting, whatever. Whoever it is has a chance to be a MNF hero if he leads Washington to a HUGE road upset. He has the weapons, but can they and the defense get it done?
Dallas is on fire at 6-1, lead the NFC East and control their own destiny for the top seed in the playoffs. Here is the problems: 1) Including this one, 3 more games before their late bye. 2) Record setting RB DeMarco Murray has had a LOT of carries. He could start wearing down anytime. 3) After this game, schedule goes nasty: a) next week home for 5-1 Arizona on a short week b) 5 of the final 7 games are on the road: at Jacksonville before the bye, home (Thanksgiving) and road versus Philly, home vs Indianapolis (week 16), at the Giants, at Chicago and finish at Washington, where a playoff berth and/or seeding could be on the line.
Dallas must not look ahead to Arizona or the rest of the schedule. Lose this game and they are still okay. But Dallas lost to SF and barely upset Seattle on the road and got by Houston in OT at home. For team pride a loss to Washington, regardless who the QB could screw the season up. Look at the last 3 years (lose week 17 to division opponent where a win would have got them in the playoffs). Will Dallas get this done?
Who wins? Dallas has the weapons to get this done. I worry about wearing down Murray, and bad Romo has been hidden for a few weeks. It is so likely to see him return in THIS game even more than the upcoming ones. Dallas can win this game and should win this game. I don’t see RGIII playing in this game, but I have no faith in Dallas not screwing this up by underestimating this opponent. This may be THE upset of the year, but I am taking Washington.
Washington 34 Dallas 31 (OT)
Bonus picks:
1. NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup: Race 7: Martinsville: What a finish at Talledega! I called it! A true Talledega race and a true Talledega finish! Okay, now we move on to the Eliminator Round of the Chase. We are now assured of a new (or repeat) champion with the elimination of Jimmie Johnson. We now travel to my home state of Virginia to the smallest track on the circuit. Martinsville is a different challenge from Talladega, but no easier.
Prediction: The final 8 Chase drivers will do what they can to do well here. Any of these drivers can do well at Texas and Phoenix in the next two weeks, but this small track is the key, as has been Chicago and Kansas in the previous first "rounds" of the Chase. If you screw up and finish in the 30s or worse in that first (and/or the second) race, unless you win one of the next two races....you are done. Each of these drivers can (and/or has) do well here. Qualifying position will mean everything the next 3 weeks.
I think Newman and Edwards and maybe Gordon (with his Hendrick teammates out of the Chase) will be at the bottom after this race, but all will have the chance to slip back in on points at Texas and Phoenix. Harvick is too strong, to not be a favorite and the two Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing cars are also so good but I have doubts about Kenseth, who like Newman, has still not won a race. Consistently is key, but to advance to the final four...a win is only sure way. I have my doubts a Chase driver will win at any of these three races (too many folks are too good at each), so high finishes in ALL three races mean everything. We will see.
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2. World Series: San Francisco at Kansas City (starts Tuesday night on Fox): This will be a classic World Series. San Francisco is building a rare baseball dynasty with their third World Series appearance in 5 years. They have the experience and the moxie to go win this Series and are not concerned about not having home-field advantage, which the National League has had recently after never seeing it since the practice of determining home-field advantage with the results to the AL-NL All-Star game in 2003. (The AL has won it this year and last year and from 2002-09. NL had it in 2010-12, and won all three times (SF twice and St. Louis in 2011). The old practice was alternating years, regardless of records, the last year of such had the AL having home field in 2002 (remember the All-Star game that year ended in that infamous tie, hence the current format starting the next season). While having home-field doesn’t always help (it helps most when there has to be a Game (6 and maybe Game) 7, which has not occurred often.
(Most recently: 2002 Anaheim beats San Francisco (AL had home field), 2011 St. Louis defeats Texas (NL had home field). Note: Texas lost the Series to SF the previous year and would have had home field in the old format that year, but did not in the new format for either appearance. Go figure. Also, Boston would have had home field for a Game 7 if they had lost Game 6 to St. Louis last year, which they did not.)
Then we have Kansas City, who has home field this year. This team has not been in the playoffs since they rallied to win the Series in 7 games over the Cardinals in 1985 (one could have called that the Missouri World Series or the Heartland World Series maybe?) This team set an on-going MLB record by winning (all) 8 straight playoff games from the start (wild-card play-in game, swept top seed Anaheim, swept 2nd seed Baltimore). A win in Game 1 extends that record streak. Overall, the Royals have won 11 straight playoff games (winning their last 3 games in the 1985 World Series to win from a 3-1 deficit, a rare feat in itself). They have unbelievable momentum, talent, and home-field on their side. Is that enough to win it all?
Prediction: San Francisco has the manager, talent and experience to win, otherwise they would not have won 2 World Series in the last 4 years and gotten to this one after winning the wild card game (traveling cross-country) and two series as the 5 (bottom playoff) seed. You cannot discount them. But the Royals…they are the ultimate underdog. They have fan support, momentum and most importantly…home field. There is no way the Royals sweep this team. But if SF doesn’t win this series in 5 games, I cannot see them winning in Kansas City if they are trailing 3-2 or if it is a Game 7. I love underdogs. I am a Dodgers and a Nationals fan. I cannot stand the Giants or the Yankees for that matter…lol.
SF has my respect for what they have done recently and I know they won’t let KC sweep them, but they are not winning this World Series. This Raiders fan has no love for Kansas City….but I am not dumb enough to not see a team of destiny when I see it. I said before the Baltimore series that the winner of that series would win the World Series (check the blog, it is there!). I see even less reason to change that now. Royals win.
Kansas City wins in 5, 6 or 7 games. There will be no sweep!
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