2014 NFL picks and more...Week 5...October 2-5...Bye week 2

   Last week, my picks did not go well. I went 6-7. I did better with the pick'em leagues I am in. Go figure. Well, let me try to turn this around with the 15 games this week.

Fantasy football people, please note, only Miami and Oakland are on bye this week! Everyone else is playing. Yes, Denver and Seattle are back on the field!

Season to date: NFL picks: 25-35 after four weeks....not good. Not good at all.

Bonus picks for the season: 19-7 after four weeks.  Very good.

Bonus picks: Last week, I was right with almost all of my NASCAR picks, and with UCLA, though I did not expect the Bruins to go off in the second half like that. Wow. Let’s see how things go this week.

Due to early start times, I am posting my picks in the MLB wild-card games today and the division series tomorrow . I will post my NFL and NASCAR (bonus) picks as the week progresses.

Teams with the Week 5 (super early) bye:

1.      Miami (2-2): The Dolphins looked good in wins over struggling New England and Oakland, but they are far from rolling. I sense this team has not recovered from the controversy from last year that may have cost them a playoff berth. This bye can help them right the ship some…but they need to run off a few wins starting next week. If they are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot with 2-3 weeks left, and they have to win, especially on the road, I am not betting on their hearts to carry them through. Let’s see if they prove me wrong.

2.      Oakland (0-4): This team is in disarray. Head coach Dennis Allen was fired last night as the team returns from their blowout loss in London. Tony Sparano, former Miami coach is named interim coach. The schedule alone was going to prevent a really good season in 2014, I had said, but this team could have beat NE and the Jets. I don’t think starting Matt Schaub would have gotten them wins, and rookie Derek Carr kept them in it. With that said, I did also think that second-year QB Matt McGloin should have been given more of a chance to win the starter job to start this year. He will have to start now if Carr cannot recover from his knee/ankle injuries before next week’s game with the Chargers. Oakland still has some pieces for a bright future (2016 and beyond when the rest of the AFC West and most of the AFC will be rebuilding) and cap room to do it. Long suffering fans like me will have to suffer through this year. But, this team will be a potential spoiler for EVERY team who they must face from here (all three division teams, all four NFC West teams). They won’t go 0-16 and they may not win more than 4 games (again), but they will be in the mix for the top overall pick in 2015.

Thursday Night Football (NFL Network/CBS): Minnesota at Green Bay: This game has much more interest now than before. The Vikings have survived the Peterson controversy and are 2-2 and looked good last Sunday. Rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater looked great, but hurt his ankle late. It wasn’t so badly hurt, but he surely won’t be 100 percent 4 days later. But can they win on the road in a short week, all things considered? Green Bay looked good in another win. Their experience and poise, especially with QB Aaron Rodgers saying “relax” to the fan base before their blowout road win at Chicago says a lot. Minnesota is not as strong as the Bears, but they have more wildcards too. It is hard to win 2 games in less than a week, anywhere. The Giants did just do it. Can the Packers do the same?

    Who wins? The Packers are fully in this race, but I am not totally convinced in the Packers after choking hard at Detroit and getting crushed in Seattle in the opening game. They are ripe for an upset and Minnesota can do it if this game is close late. I am taking the Vikings in a overtime upset. Packers fans should relax, but not as much as Rodgers thinks.

Minnesota 27 Green Bay 24 (OT)

Update: Damn. The Packers showed little mercy on the short-handed Vikings. It was best that injured Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater sat, for he (nor Adrian Peterson) would not have helped much here. The Packers are back in the playoff race, but the chase is on to catch Detroit.

Sunday's games:

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Tampa got a shocking upset at Pittsburgh last week. Good for them! Now really show us something and beat the Saints. In the SuperDome. Good luck with that. The Saints have lost 3 road games already (should have beat Cleveland). But they finally play at home again where this team is dominant on both sides of the ball. Yes, the Saints can go 8-0 at home, but they need road wins to make the playoffs. 8-8 won’t cut it. But, QB Drew Brees, worry about that for your next road game. Win this one first.

    Who wins? Seriously? The Bucs stole one in Pittsburgh. Doing the same in New Orleans will not happen unless Brees and TE Jimmy Graham get hurt early. Period. I am no dummy. I am taking the Saints.

New Orleans 35 Tampa Bay 20

Chicago at Carolina: Both teams started well, but both teams fell with a thud last week. Carolina does not look good at all. But the Bears don’t look any better. This may well be an elimination game as far as possible wild-card spots are concerned. Neither look great for winning their division, so the wild-card may be their only shot at the playoffs, with a crowded pack of teams, the field has to thin sometime. Both teams look weak, but someone has to win.

   Who wins? Offense wins (most) regular season games. Defense wins championships. Neither defense looks that great right now, but the Bears has more grit and experience on offense. That will carry the day here. Bears win.

Chicago 24 Carolina 23

Cleveland at Tennessee: Both teams started with some flashes then fizzled, especially the Titans. Both teams are rebuilding, but Cleveland seems to be further along the path. The Titans may get injured QB Jake Locker back, but it may not matter. This is not going to be one of the most viewed games.

   Who wins? I don’t think many folk will care about this game right now. But teams need to win games like this to become relevant late in the season. Cleveland is far closer to that level. I am taking the road team in a snoozer.

Cleveland 28 Tennessee 24

Atlanta at the New York Giants:  Atlanta looks devastating on offense…indoors. Outdoors…not so much. This week, things got real bad for the injury-ravaged Falcons with their starting center and guard both being placed on season-ending injured reserve (Tuesday afternoon). Let me be clear. No matter what kind of offense you run, indoors or out, if you don’t have a decent or better offensive line (meaning all 5 spots) blocking for your running backs and quarterback, you have serious issues, no matter how good those running back(s), quarterback and/or the rest of the team is. I do not know how good the backup linemen are for the Falcons, but these losses will hurt them the rest of the year, along with their playoff hopes. The Giants are on fire having won two games in 4 days to even their record and then get the extra few days off (playing last Thursday night) to prepare for Atlanta. The issues are still there. But the experience of QB Eli Manning, WR Victor Cruz and coach Tom Coughlin means a lot in possibly bringing Big Blue back to prominence, especially with so many NFC powers struggling. They are getting the Falcons at the perfect time and at home, no less. New York must not blow this game!

   Who wins? Neither team has great defense. Atlanta’s great WR duo is still not 100 percent and neither is the running game. Atlanta has a dangerous returner in Devin Hester but he has been  hurt, along with WR Harry Douglas. Giants RB Rashad Jennings had a big game against Washington and at times in Oakland last year. He and Manning are the X-factors here. If the Giants control the clock with the run, they can win, even if Atlanta had all their O-linemen. I was taking the Giants anyway, but I most definitely will now.

New York Giants 30 Atlanta 20

Baltimore at Indianapolis:  This may have Game of the Week written all over it. Still, this is the one division where one could rally from 0-2 if your team is good enough. The Colts have QB Andrew Luck and WRs Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton. Enough said. They are coming on strong but still trail the surprising Texans. Baltimore is on fire, but they trail the undefeated Bengals who beat them in Week 1. This game could matter a lot in playoff seeding later. This is a must-watch game.

  Who wins? Really? We all win! The Colts are great at home, but the Ravens are getting their swagger back. This game will come down to the final possession. I see a overtime win for the Ravens on the road.

Baltimore 30 Tennessee 27 (OT)

St. Louis at Philadelphia: BIRD WAR! The Rams’ season of horror continues. QB Austin Davis is named the starter for the rest of the season, but who really cares? The Eagles are soaring, but were brought down to earth by the Niners. Now, they must win at home as they are staring at the surprising Cowboys and Giants in their face and on their heels in the NFC East. Two losses in a row is not a option. Seattle, GB, SF and rest are not that far behind.

    Who wins? I might have took the Rams if this game was in the dome. But the Rams cannot score with the Eagles without a lot of pick-sixes. I see a heavy dose of RB LeSean McCoy and the Eagles grind out a win and get the running game better, which is desperately needed. Eagles win.

Philadelphia 30 St. Louis 17

New York Jets at San Diego:  So much for that resurgent New York Jets. Having lost 3 straight after barely escaping Oakland at home in Week 1, the Jets look nasty. QB Geno Smith is one more loss from being benched, I think. The problem is that would QB Michael Vick be any better, much less would it matter? The Chargers are still a dangerous squad, especially at home, as the defending champs found out. They have weapons, they have QB Philip Rivers and they are a tough out for anyone. Poor Jets.

 Who wins? Rivers and his team realize that they need every win to make the playoffs again. Denver and KC are weaker than last year….the what ifs are big and getting bigger. After choking to Arizona on the opening MNF, the Chargers cannot afford another loss in a game they should win, especially in conference and at home. Chargers win. 

San Diego 30 New York Jets 20

Kansas City at San Francisco: This is now a big game. The Chiefs whipped the suddenly punch-less Patriots at home on MNF, while the Niners got a huge home win over the formerly undefeated Eagles. Both teams must win to stay in their respective division and wild-card races. The bad news is the Niners is a lot stronger on both offense and defense than the Pats are, and this game is in SF, who cannot afford more home losses.

    Who wins? SF TE Vernon Davis may be out today, but the Niners need him. Still, when QB Colin Kaepernick and the other wideouts are on the field, plus RB Frank Gore, they are hard to stop at home. The Chiefs defense is decent, but the offense is still so-so and less so on the road. I have to take the home team here.

San Francisco 27 Kansas City 24 

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville: The Jags are horrible. The Steelers is not good…but they always fight hard. Who is watching this game? Not many, unless you want to see Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell or Jags rookie QB Blake Bortles. The Steelers cannot afford to blow this game. The future is brightening for the Jaguars, but the present? Not so good. Nothing else to say. 

   Who wins? Look, Pittsburgh has a running game and Big Ben at QB. Jackonville has no real D…yet, half a running game and little else. Steelers win and will not choke two winnable games in an row.

Pittsburgh 27 Jacksonville 18

Buffalo at Detroit: This is another must-watch game. The Lions seem to be getting their powerful offense rolling again..at home. On the road….not so much. Dome teams have trouble outdoors and the Lions are a clear example of that. Worse yet, all-world Lions WR Calvin Johnson has an injured ankle. That will slow him down, but he is getting better. The Bills have benched QB E.J. Manuel after recent stumbles, replacing him with former Cowboys and Bears QB Kyle Orton. His experience will help, but the Bills don’t have the horses to stop Detroit at Ford Field.

   Who wins? Detroit has issues outdoors when everyone is healthy. At home, this team is scary. The Bills could come in and get another road upset, but the Lions are on fire and cannot afford to let the fire fizzle now, especially with GB on fire again. Good thing the Lions already upset the Pack at home 2 weeks ago. The Lions need every home win to maybe make the playoffs. Emphasis on MAYBE! Lions win.

Detroit 27 Buffalo 21

Arizona at Denver: Okay, for the surprisingly undefeated Cardinals this game is huge! This could make their season if they win. Both teams are coming off their bye and it is going to be a lot more interesting than it seemed in April. Arizona QB Drew Stanton continues to replace starter Carson Palmer, who has arm issues. I am starting to wonder if Palmer will be back this year at all. Denver looks shakier than last year, and one has to wonder if they can win the AFC again. This will be a tight game.

    Who wins? Denver is at home which is good. But they have been shaky at home and could not beat Seattle on the road. Arizona keeps finding ways to win…even with WR Larry Fitzgerald not getting a lot of action so far. Denver is not what it was last year, and despite injuries, Arizona’s defense will give Denver and QB Peyton Manning fits. I am taking Arizona in what may be the upset of the year!

Arizona 28 Denver 27

Houston at Dallas: The Battle for Texas! This game is now very interesting! Houston and their great defense, led by all-world DE J.J. Watt against the surging Cowboys and QB Tony Romo and RB DeMarco Murray and WR Dez Bryant. Enough said! Watch this game for state bragging rights that can only happen once every four years.

Who wins?  Dallas has a much better offense, but Houston has some experienced pieces. If Romo and friends are kept off the field and Houston can keep scoring, a upset can happen. I don’t see that happen, but Romo throwing a pick-six or worse due to Watt and friends is more likely. I have to take Houston, but Dallas has to hope Romo can survive this physical game, for a new injury will kill Dallas and their hot start.

Houston 30 Dallas 27

Sunday Night Football: Cincinnati at New England: This game becomes far more interesting. The Bengals are doing well, but I am not convinced yet. The Patriots offense is a joke and a shell of its former self. Their embarrassing loss on MNF at KC says a lot, especially after barely escaping Oakland AT HOME the week before. Statements will be made tonight. Watch this game for I have a sinking feeling that Brady may be not be in a Patriots uniform for that much longer.Without blocking and good players around him, Brady is barely better than average. We are all seeing that now. 

     Who wins? I don’t know what is wrong with the Patriots offense, but it seems to me a combination of age, lesser talent along both lines and in the skill position (including to a lesser extent, quarterback), injuries and a heading toward outdated system has caught up with the Patriots in a big way. The Bengals look similar to last year, and losing offensive coordinator Jay Gruden to (become head coach at) Washington has not mattered much….yet. But the Bengals won’t need a lot to get by NE at this point. Don’t take the Patriots or Brady lightly at home, however. Don’t make mistakes and don’t let Bengals WR A. J. Green get hurt again. Bengals win. Barely.

Cincinnati 30 New England 27

Monday Night Football: Seattle at Washington: This game may well decide Washington’s season. Yes, it is only week 5. But at 1-3, Washington needs wins. Having already lost two division games is almost enough to finish them now. Lose to the champs at home with a trip to undefeated Arizona next and 1-4 (certainly 1-5) means season over. Seattle must win to stay close to Arizona, Detroit and SF and surging Green Bay, especially if they all win again Sunday. They also need to prove (again) they can win on the road. Home-field is important. You need wins to get it.

   Who wins? The Redskins will fight hard, but a rested Seattle should win this if they run the ball with RB Marshawn Lynch a lot. The Redskins can rush the passer, but they don’t stop the run well, and Seattle QB Russell Wilson is too good all-around to be stopped here. Redskins lose again and let the bitching begin in DC.

Seattle 30 Washington 24

Bonus picks:

MLB Wild Card Playoff (1 game playoff; winners advance to best of 5 Division Series)

1.      American League Wild Card: Oakland at Kansas City (Tuesday): Kansas City returns to the playoffs for the first time in 29 years when they won the World Series in Game 7. They are dangerous, but they are more of a small-ball team, not a big home-run team but they don’t strike out a lot either. Oakland looked unstoppable for half the season, then they collapsed, barely slipping into the wild-card over hard-charging Seattle. Can the Athletics get it together to win this one game and go to the next round and face division rival Anaheim again for a spot in the ALCS?

Who wins? The A’s have weapons but less than no momentum. These Royals look like the 1985 version that won it all. And with that and the NFL’s Chiefs shocking everyone by crushing the Patriots next door last night on their side, I am not going against the Royals. Sorry.  

Kansas City 6 Oakland 3

2.      National League Wild Card: San Francisco at Pittsburgh (Wednesday): The Giants were in a fight with the Dodgers most of the season, but they did choke a big lead, only to fall way back, come back, but could not stop the Dodgers, who clinched the NL West at home with possible NL Cy Young (and/or MVP) winner P Clayton Kershaw shutting them down. They go cross-country to face the dangerous Pirates who could not quite nip the Cardinals for the Central crown, but were in fairly safe ground for the wild-card for a bit. This game will be close, and the reward is to travel to DC to face the rested and excited Nationals. Oh, joy.

Who wins? The Giants are playoff-tested, but like KC, the Pirates are excited and they have home-field. I just cannot see the Giants traveling all the way East and pulling this one game out, and then having to go south to face Washington and upset them, too. No, I am taking the underdog here, too (yes, I am a Dodgers/Nationals fan, but reality is reality). Pirates win in extra innings.

Pittsburgh 6 San Francisco 5 (11 innings)

Update: Well, I got one out of two right. The AL game was riveting, the NL game was for a while, but these things happen. My Division series picks are updated and listed below. My NFL picks will be along before Sunday.

  MLB Division Series (best of 5 series):

3.      American League Division Series: Kansas City at top seed Anaheim (Thursday): These Royals have spunk! When you are down four runs with 2 innings to play in a playoff game, you are usually done. However, this team rallied to tie and ultimately beat Oakland in 12 innings. That is playoff baseball! Somehow, I was not surprised. Now, the wild-card winners travel west to start the Division Series against top-seed Anaheim, who is probably glad not to have to face their division rivals to the north. But they cannot assume they can easily beat these Royals. Anaheim is a tough squad and KC had better realize that the Angels will not blow a 4 run lead late in any game here. The Royals will fight, but I think the Angels will have too much, especially having home field. Angels win.

Angels in 4 games

4.      American League Division Series:  Detroit at Baltimore: I do think Detroit is a tough squad, but their struggles to secure the division will hurt. Baltimore clinched the AL East a while ago and has flown despite multiple injuries and the suspension of Chris Davis (out until sometime in the ALCS, if Baltimore advances). Baltimore has too much momentum for these shaky Tigers to stop them, especially with the Orioles having home field. Simple choice here. Having the last 3 American League Cy Young winning pitchers in your rotation (Detroit) does not mean you win every series. That is why you play the games. I am taking the higher seed here.

Baltimore wins in 5 games.

5.      National League Division Series: San Francisco at top seed Washington (Friday): 

San Francisco surprisingly crushed the Pirates at home yesterday. Did not see that coming. Anyway, the Giants will be a tough foe for the Nationals, having playoff experience to burn and so on. But these young Nationals are so loaded, both in their batting lineup to their pitching. Better yet, their young pitching star, Stephen Strausburg, will be in the lineup this time (pitching Game 1, missed 2012 playoffs because the team shut him down as he was returning from Tommy John surgery the year before). The Nationals are on fire right now, and having Game 2 starter Jordan Zimmerman throw a no-hitter on Sunday (final day of the regular season) AND having home-field for the NL playoffs (American League champ will have home field in the World Series…again) ought to give them the momentum to get past the Giants and into the NLCS, if they play well and mistake free. The Giants will not be an easy out and will not need much help to steal this series. However, I have faith in those pitchers getting it done. Nationals win.

            Nationals in 4 games. 

5.     National League Division Series: St. Louis at Los Angeles: This is a rematch of last year’s NLCS. You know the players and you know how good both teams are. This series will go the distance. Home field advantage will make the difference, and this time, the Dodgers have it. There will be no sweep and I will be surprised if this series goes less than the full 5 game. Dodgers win this series, barely.

Dodgers win in 5 (all close) games.

6.       NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup Race 4: Kansas: The Contender Round begins in the heartland with 12 teams left. Now things start to get interesting. The pressure will go up with each race, where again one bad finish will doom you, or a win gets you through with no worries. The pressure is highest on Edwards, Harvick and Newman, the only remaining drivers in the Chase who do NOT have teammates in the Chase. The other drivers (all 4 Hendrick cars, all three Joe Gibbs Racing cars and both Team Penske cars have the advantage with having teammates in the Chase, but I still feel Kahne and Kenseth, especially are in trouble. Kenseth, at least hast the advantage of being a past Sprint Cup champion. Edwards (lost the title to Stewart via tiebreaker after Homestead 3 years ago), Harvick, Newman (Kyle Busch, Kahne, Dale, Jr and Logano) have never been champion.

Prediction:  Kansas should a fairly level playing field for most of these drivers. Luck is going to factor in more and more from here on. No point advantages to any driver at this point. From here on, you do what you must to win or finish high, and the rest be damned. The 12 Chasers will do fine here, but I see Kahne and Newman at the back of the group after this race. Harvick, Brad K and maybe Logano will fight for the win. Jimmie Johnson needs to start doing something though. He has been too quiet and he needs some momentum NOW. But I don't think that will happen this week, but it will in Charlotte next week.