2014 NFL Picks Week 7 October 16-20

NFL Picks Week 7

Last week, my picks did okay. Even with some surprises, I went 7-7-1. That tie was BS! I did better with the pick'em leagues I am in. Go figure. Well, let me try to gain some more momentum with the 15 games this week.

 Fantasy football people, please note, bye weeks continue! What…two teams on bye AGAIN this week? This is crazy. The NFL schedule-maker is dumb. This scheduling makes no sense and less so as we go.

Season to date: 41-48-1 after six weeks. Not great at all, but it is improving.

Bonus picks: 5-4 this week, 29-17 to this point. The baseball picks did not do well, with Baltimore getting swept by the Royals and SF eliminating St. Louis Thursday night. My NASCAR picks were good, especially with Harvick winning  to advance to the final 8 automatically. All of the Chase drivers finished in the top 20.
    Talledega is a wild-card kind of track and this is an elimination race on Sunday. Qualifying up front will mean a lot. If you are in the pack or near the rear of the lead lap with 60 laps to go or less…you are normally screwed, but here…you never know. But Dale, Jr. Brad K. and/or Jimmie Johnson may ALL get eliminated and Kasey Kahne may slip through. Go figure.  Click over to ESPN and watch this race during commercials of the NFL games or tape it. You will want to.

Teams with the Week 7 bye:

1.       Philadelphia (5-1): The Eagles look hot, hot hot! But their repeated slow starts from the start of the year is a problem, though that didn’t happen against the Giants. Getting their bye now may work against them because of potential lost momentum. But we will see if that is the case when they return next week. I still think that coach Chip Kelly’s dumping of WR DeSean Jackson in the offseason was stupid, but so far, such has not hurt. I sense the full effects of such will not appear until late in the year (and/or the playoffs if they get there) , but more likely next year, or even sooner if WR Jeremy Maclin and/or Riley Cooper and/or rookie WR Matthews goes down, like backup RB/KR Darren Sproles has. However, seeing all-world RB LeSean McCoy struggle to get yards on the ground is a worry, but the defense is not bad. How this team returns from the bye, especially when they must face 5-1 Dallas may decide their season, for good or for bad.

2.       Tampa Bay (2-4): The Bucs have to rebuild, but they have some hope and some pieces. But they are just spoilers for 2014. Give them 2 years to finish rebuilding and we will see.

Thursday Night Football (NFL Network/CBS): New York Jets at New England: Huge game…for the Patriots! Despite surprising losses to Miami and KC, the Patriots are at the top of the AFC East as usual. QB Tom Brady is back on track after looking horrible earlier in the season, but he needs to be with the injury bug striking again with leading RB Steven Ridley and LB O.J. Mayo both lost for the year (knee). The Jets have looked bad all year, having not won since a uneven win over Oakland on Opening Day, which is the only thing between them and 0-6. Jets QB Geno Smith is very shaky, and using backup Michael Vick is apparently not a great option either. Barring a miracle (winning out), head coach Rex Ryan is done in New York, but he and the Jets can be spoilers, starting now. 

    Who wins? Short and sweet…This will be a fight, due to the injuries on both sides, the rivalry (they really don’t like each other) and the expected rain at Foxboro making the field and the ball very wet. I don’t see a lot of scoring here, besides close in field goals. This is not a must see game, except for the rivalry and it is Thursday night. Jim Nantz and Phil Simms will have some challenges calling this one and making it look interesting. Barring a (serious) Brady injury, the Jets won’t win. Not a tough call…Patriots win. The TNF blowout run may start again tonight.

New England 28 New York Jets 18

Update: Well, I did call it right. I didn't think it would be that close, but close. The Harvin trade to the Jets is a shock and screwed up a lot of fantasy football teams, including mine. I apologize for getting my info out late while I fixed messed up lineups at the last minute. I will discuss the trade in next week's entry under the Jets.

Sunday's games:



Cincinnati at Indianapolis: I am not sure what to say about this game. Cincinnati did not look good last week, had Carolina beat in OT AT HOME, and the kicker barely missed the kick for the win. Tie. Not good. The Colts are much better. The game is not in Cincinnati. Colts QB Andrew Luck is better that Bengals QB Andy Dalton. WR A.J. Green is very likely out again. Not good for the road team.





   Who wins? Both teams have nice QBs and tough defenses, for the most part, though their recent games make that questionable. The difference is the running game. The Bengals have a couple of nice running backs who both can do damage. The Colts runners are not as good. However, the Bengals just allowed 37 points to a one-dimensional Carolina team…at HOME. The Colts can do more damage with more balance and weapons. Simple call. Colts win.

Indianapolis 35 Cincinnati 24

Cleveland at Jacksonville: Cleveland is the biggest feel-good story of the league so far. They destroyed Pittsburgh last week. Can they do the same to the winless Jaguars? Yes. But they won’t. Too much letdown. But they can win the game. The Jags don’t have the weapons the Steelers do. This is not a hard call.

     Who wins? To stay in the race, Cleveland must win the winnable games and steal a few. Cleveland did the steal with Pittsburgh. Cleveland must win the winnable game with the Jaguars to show last week was no fluke. Browns win.

Cleveland 27 Jacksonville 20

Minnesota at Buffalo: Minnesota is 2-4 but has been a bit more competitive than one would think without RB Adrian Peterson, who legal troubles seem to have him out for the rest of the year. He may never wear the uniform of this team again. The Vikings find themselves still only 2 games back of Detroit in the NFC North. QB Teddy Bridgewater may be the answer at QB, but he needs help. A lot of it. Buffalo is 11/2 games in back of New England (who barely won on TNF over the Jets) and must win to stay close in the AFC East and in the wild-card race. Benching QB E.J. Manuel for veteran Kyle Orton was a surprise and I am not sure if that was wise. Only clear wins would convince me on this. The Bills need some more help too, but getting the ownership situation settled does not hurt.

    Who wins? Buffalo got a nice win last week and are at home this week, but Minnesota has the tools to win here. Can the Bills defense stop a young Bridgewater if he doesn’t make rookie errors? I am not sure they can. Minnesota in a minor upset.

Minnesota 27 Buffalo 24.

Miami at Chicago: This will be a yawner of a game. I thought Miami had a chance to be a spoiler this year and maybe steal a wild-card spot. Despite their Week 1 upset of New England, the Dolphins have been okay, but 2-3 is hardly inspiring with their other win being over Oakland in London. Now that lead RB Knowshown Moreno is on IR and the team still looks in disarray, Miami may become a quick afterthought. The Bears looked horrible against Green Bay, but they are still only 1 game out in the NFC North with half of their remaining games in division after this week. This is a winnable game and it is at home. Better win this one.

   Who wins? The Bears already choked to Buffalo on Opening Day at home, they cannot afford another non-conference (home) loss. The Bears offense is getting better and with healthy weapons. They have more than Miami can handle. They will get this one. Bears win.

Chicago 28 Miami 21

New Orleans at Detroit: Remember when I said (I think last week) that Atlanta had to be perfect at home and win some road games to make the playoffs, because they are a dome team? Yes, see how that went. The Saints are in the same hole. They had a lot of road games early, including the opener at Atlanta and lost them all. They have barely won one of their two home games. This road game at Detroit is huge if the Saints want to get back in this division race.
   The NFC South is always unpredictable, but it is all coming back to them as Carolina ties (should have lost) and the Falcons choke while NO was on their bye. The Falcons and Bucs have four losses and the Panthers have two and a tie, putting the division in the Saints’ hands if they can win out. That starts here. Detroit is in first, like they were last year, but they are shaky. WR Calvin Johnson is likely not playing again this week and may not be totally good for a while yet. Their bye in 2 weeks cannot come soon enough, but they must win this game and next week at Atlanta to help their situation. Must win for both teams.
 
    Who wins? Johnson or no Johnson, Stafford is nice, but he is no Drew Brees. The Saints are getting healthy and can win in any dome….Detroit cannot do that…yet. Sorry, Lions, the Saints will take this road game…barely.

New Orleans 34 Detroit 30

Seattle at St. Louis: The story of this week has now become the surprise trade of Seattle WR Percy Harvin to the New York Jets for a conditional pick. The why will come out soon enough. The bottom line of such is that Seattle has a great team without Harvin and taking a playmaker out of it will have a effect, but not as much as one would think. Remember, Seattle didn't have Harvin for virtually the whole season except for the NFC championship and the Super Bowl. For the Rams, that is one less worry, but this team will have trouble regardless. Sorry.

   Who wins? The Harvin trade will not change the result much. St. Louis had a chance to upset the Niners on MNF last week, but could not. Sorry, the Rams will not have much better luck with a Seattle team smarting from losing to Dallas at home last week. Sucks to be the Rams. Seahawks win.

Seattle 30 St. Louis 20

New York Giants at Dallas: Dallas is riding high with a 5-1 start and a shocking upset of the Seahawks in Seattle. That win will help a lot later. However, this is a major letdown and trap game to face these Giants, who suffered the second shutout loss of the season on SNF at Philadelphia, plus the loss of WR Victor Cruz for the year (knee). WR Odell Beckham, Jr. gets the rest of the year to show if he really was worth a 1st round pick this year. Dallas couldn't blow this game...right?

   Who wins? Dallas should have no reason to blow this game, but I remember the Giants kept upsetting Dallas in Texas a lot in the last few years (but the game was usually in Week 1 or 2). I see no way the Giants can win...but we said that after the Patriots got crushed by KC on MNF. You saw what happened. Giants in a HUGE UPSET!!!

New York Giants 33 Dallas 27 (OT)

Carolina at Green Bay: Carolina should feel lucky to get a tie (WTF?) last week. Green Bay feels great after coming back to steal a win in Miami in the final seconds. The QB matchup is great...but the rest of the teams...not so much. What happened to the Carolina defense? I don't know, but the good Panthers defense of 2013 may not be enough to stop QB Aaron Rodgers and the GB offense, with or without a running game. Sorry. True, Carolina and QB Cam Newton did get 37 points in Cincinnati, but that is not saying but so much. At least one of the injured Carolina RBs is playing...for all the good that will be.

   Who wins? Carolina can put up points, but without their best defense...they cannot score with Green Bay...especially in Green Bay. If Carolina gets a chance to steal this one....better close the deal and not hope the other team's kicker blows the game-winning kick. Won't happen in Green Bay. Packers win.

Green Bay 38 Carolina 30

Kansas City at San Diego: The Chargers are another pleasant surprise in the AFC...but they barely got past Oakland on the road. If they want a high playoff seed, they need to dominate the weaker teams. Remember, two games with Denver and more are down the road. Kansas City looks shaky still...not like the team that started 9-0 last year. Do we really think the Chiefs can come into San Diego and pull a big upset...sort of like what the Chargers did to them last year as they slipped into the playoffs at the last minute? Yeah, right.

   Who wins? San Diego is on fire, and having a win over Seattle like Dallas has them charged up (forgive the pun). Remember this is a experienced PLAYOFF team from 2013 and they are in a great spot now. They will not overlook their division rivals...Chargers win.

San Diego 33 Kansas City 24


Atlanta at Baltimore: The Falcons are in big trouble with four losses. Choking a home game is even worse, since this dome team needs every home win they can get. Now they have to win road games outdoors (and yes, go into the Superdome to face the Saints later) to make up for such. Good luck with that. Baltimore looks fairly steady after a lot of early-season turmoil. Atlanta's offensive weapons seem healthy now, but winning in Baltimore is no easy task.

    Who wins? Until Atlanta can do something meaningful outdoors, I am not taking them. They could not beat the Bengals without Green, so why should I think they can beat the Ravens on the road, who has QB Joe Flacco and all their weapons? Right. Ravens win.

Baltimore 27 Atlanta 24





Tennessee at Washington: The Redskins still look horrible, but hope is coming with the possibility that injured starting QB Robert Griffin III will be available for the game at Dallas in a few weeks. But both teams have QB issues..so this game will be painful to watch. The Redskins have more weapons on offense. Period. You cannot blow winnable games. At home. Get it?

   Who wins? Washington almost beat Arizona and Seattle, Tennessee barely got two wins. Washington has no excuse for losing here…but they might. Run the ball and you win. Pass the ball a lot….and they won’t. The Titans cannot stop either well. Redskins survive.

Washington 23 Tennessee 21

Arizona at Oakland: Arizona is shocking everyone by leading the NFC West, despite their QB and other major injuries. But it is wins that matter. Oakland gave the Chargers all they could want before falling in the final minute due to a late INT. However, QB Derek Carr threw 4 TDs against a decently good San Diego defense, which is impressive. Oakland has finally got their QB of the future, it seems. This game could be an interesting test for the Cardinals and is a classic trap game. QB Carson Palmer looks okay, but can he take a hit? We will see.

   Who wins? Forget the records. Oakland is a spoiler team that should scare everyone. This is also their first of 6 division games (plus the four games against the NFC West later). This year's schedule is hell on this division and the NFC West. 0-16 is possible, but I see upsets coming. Here is the first. Rivers is rolling, but I see the Chargers looking past these Raiders. Big mistake. Raiders win.

Oakland 28 Arizona 27
 
Sunday Night Football: San Francisco at Denver: This will be a war! The Ninerss have rallied  after looking clueless in preseason and in the first two games. The Broncos looked shaky but keep winning….except in Seattle. More importantly for both, the schedule gets harder from here  The winner could get a small leg up on most of their conference, the loser could be in trouble, especially if it is the Niners. Every game matters from here. QB Peyton Manning will get the career TD record….but wins matter more and he knows it. This is a major test.

    Who wins? This will be a war of offenses. The defenses will get hurt here. Manning will get most of his. But the Niners have the running game to control the clock and THAT is how you beat Denver. Manning cannot beat you from the sidelines. The Niners have the experience and poise to get it done…like Seattle barely did. Niners in a upset.

San Francisco 30 Denver 27 (OT)

Monday Night Football: Houston at Pittsburgh: The Steelers got bombed last week..by Cleveland???? Now they come home to face J.J. Watt and the Texans, who MIGHT get their top pick back on the field since the opener, too. Not good. Houston has some offense and the Steelers, despite RB Le’Veon Bell, is too banged up on defense to stop folk and the overall offense is not there. This may be ugly.

   Who wins? The Steelers can win this game but I just don’t think they will. But it will be close. Simple as that. Texans win again to stay in the division race.

Houston 28 Pittsburgh 24



Bonus picks: 

1. College Football: 2 Florida State 30 5 Notre Dame 27 (3 OT) 

Update: Great win for FSU. Notre Dame did everything but win the game. If not for that OPI in the FSU endzone on 3rd and goal..they would still be undefeated. If both teams run the table from here, I can see both of them in the College Football Playoff. A rematch on a neutral field....that would be awesome, especially if it is for the national title. It could happen.

2.   NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup: Race 6: Talledega: I said all that needs to be said last week. Everyone in the Chase finished in the top 20 last week. But this is the biggest, fastest, craziest track on the circuit. Expect wrecks and a lot of anger during and after the race. Period. 

Prediction: This race will come down to the final 20 laps and who survives. I predict only 2/3 (8) of the Chase drivers finish in the top 20.. A Chase driver will NOT win the race, but will finish in the top 5. Lastly, at least two big names will not advance to the next round due to points (especially if he wrecks). 

OUT: Kahne, Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 

Somehow, Brad K will finish top 5 and slip in the next round and kick Kahne out. The other three will wreck late trying to win and being so far behind in points will eliminate 2 favorites. If Brad K cannot finish top 10, he is gone too, unless Kenseth, Kahne and/or Hamlin all wreck out early. Totally possible here.

3. World Series: San Francisco at Kansas City (starts Tuesday night on Fox): I will post my pick on this on Monday once I think on this more.