2017 NFL Picks Week Three
Note for Fantasy Football Players: In addition to the (ugh)
TNF game, the first game in London is this week (the first of TWO straight
weeks of London games!) It will be undefeated Baltimore vs (home team)
Jacksonville (whose owner ASKED for his team to play in London…go figure). If
you don’t like (potentially) low-scoring defensive battles…you will HATE
getting up early for this one (I won’t totally be loving it, for it starts at
1030pm, Sunday night here in South Korea, then everyone else starts after that
(2am; 5-something am, before my Raiders play the Redskins in DC (actually
suburban Maryland!....just being correct on location!) at 930 am Monday
morning, Japan/Korea time!). Please adjust your rosters early for players in
this early game accordingly. Don’t say I didn’t warn you!
Last Week: NFL
picks: 8-8, Bonus picks: 3-1 (will explain at bottom).
Season: NFL: 17-14;
Bonus picks: 3-1
Slow start on my picks this year, but it will get better. 8
2-0 teams, including my Raiders and Ravens and NOT New England or Dallas. So
sue me. That means I am already playing with house money. This week will be
harder, I think.
Thursday Night Football on NFL Network:
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco: This may be the start to
a string of crappy TNF games. (I checked, pretty much…yes as of now, until
Kansas City at Oakland (October 19) in four weeks. Sorry, I don’t make the
schedule. The Niners have no offense, yet they almost beat Seattle, who has
better offensive talents anyway…go figure. The Rams showed they can score on
offense with former first overall pick QB Jared Goff, though to be honest…if
the Rams didn’t have HB Todd Gurley III and PK Greg Zuerlein scoring in both
games and the defense (minus DT Aaron Donald) add 14 points (2 pick-sixTDs and
1 safety) in the opener at Indianapolis), this team would have fewer points
than Seattle and the same number as these Niners does in 2 games (Seattle 21
other Rams 12, 49ers 12…seriously, I checked). Not good. This game won’t be
better. But the Niners are 1 game out of first place. If the Niners win and
Seattle loses on Sunday (possible), and Arizona loses on MNF (seems likely…right?),
the NFC Weak…I mean, West, will be a 4-way tie at 1-2. Ugh. Remember…one of
these four will be in the playoffs, at a minimum. Other than Gurley, I can’t
find any real positives….on either team really. Watch this game at your own
peril.
Who wins? Do we care? I am not loving this matchup at all.
This will not be high scoring, unless the Rams defense get up WITH Donald like
they did without Donald against the Colts. Maybe they like road games more. Or
just can’t handle teams with legit QBs (so far), though they have only faced
one so far. The Niners are worse on offense and their defense will only slow
down Gurley for so long. I am taking the Rams on the road again. And I will not
be surprised if the Niners go a third straight game without scoring even 1
touchdown. If they finish the first half of this game without doing so, that
will (apparently) be a NFL record. (As best as I could find…the 1977 Tampa Bay
Buccaneers did not score their first TD of the SEASON until the second quarter
of their third game. They didn’t get their second TD until the second quarter
of their fifth game (was shut out 13-0 in week 4). Not good). Rams win.
Los Angeles Rams 15 San Francisco 6
Sunday’s Games:
Baltimore at Jacksonville (930am EDT start on CBS from
London): The Ravens are 2-0 and are looking pretty good, all things considered.
But starting with Cincinnati on the road and Cleveland at home kind of helps.
Jacksonville did upset and smash a distracted Texans team in Houston before
Tennessee smashed them at the Jaguars’ home opener after Oakland smashed the
Titans in Nashville in Week 1. Get all that? Good. But both teams have good to
great defenses. Offensively…not so much. Bottom line, every conference game is
big, for no team will win a wild-card easily, looking at the stacked AFC West
with 3 2-0 teams. Regardless of the location, this is a more important game
than some might think. Hope they realize this.
Who wins? It is simple. Baltimore has a better, more
experienced team, injuries notwithstanding, with a reasonable and experienced
QB in Joe Flacco leading them who has won a Super Bowl…and a better more
experienced defense. The Jaguars have a young, hungry defense…but the offense
is a dumpster fire, mostly because of ineffective QB Blake Bortles, who has won
nothing that matters, except a big contract as a high first-round draft pick
four years ago. Simple as that. The Jaguars will make more mistakes and the
Ravens will take advantage. Game may be close, but the Ravens will win this
game…wherever.
Baltimore 24 Jacksonville 15
Cleveland at Indianapolis: This game may well decide who
gets the first overall pick in the 2018 NFL (I know it is early, but I am
serious). The Colts really suck, and injured starter QB Andrew Luck (shoulder
from last year) is out again. Seriously, if Luck cannot play until midseason
(if at all this year), the Colts should say so. This team won’t win much with
Luck, never mind without because the cupboards are almost bare on both sides of
the ball. The fan base deserves the truth. Cleveland is not much better, but
rookie QB Deshone Kizer is young and raw and top WR Corey Coleman (broken right
hand) just went on IR-designated to return (?), as well. Congrats to Browns LT
Joe Thomas who has now played over 10,000 NFL snaps without missing a play from
the start of his career, as of last week. Too bad this team sucks.
Still…somebody has to win this game…..right?
Who wins? No one really cares, but Cleveland might want to
lose this game, with all the picks they have next year. Unfortunately, if they
want to tank, this may be the one game they will win (and avoid 0-16) despite
themselves. Oh, wait…the Browns host the Jets in two weeks…and the Bengals in
week 11…and the Bears on Christmas Eve (week 16). So that number might actually
be a bit more than one. Sorry. Cleveland can at least score TDs….more than the
Colts can right now. No Luck means Colts loss. Even to Cleveland. Period.
Browns win.
Cleveland 20 Indianapolis 13
New York Giants at Philadelphia (home opener): This is not a
good time for the Giants. They got punched out at Dallas in the SNF opener with
star WR Odell Beckham, Jr. injured. They go home for MNF, get a mostly healthy
OBJ back and Detroit (dome team!) comes in and beats them down. Now they travel
south to Philadelphia to face the shaky…but still better Eagles. This is before
they go to Tampa, host the hard-luck Chargers, go to Denver (who just did
unnatural things to Dallas in that thin air!) before coming home for
offensively challenged (for now) Seattle, whose defense may be stronger than in
previous years and the Rams, who have defense, too. Not good. These new-look
Giants look old-school weak. Spent a lot of money on defense (a little on
offense) and they cannot score. The Eagles may have stole one in Washington in
week 1, but went to KC and got punched out by former coach Andy Reid and the
Chiefs. (Both teams had better remember they face all 4 AFC West teams this
year…ouch.) Injuries will hurt the Eagles…both teams look punch-drunk going
into this game. This game was going to be ugly, anyway. This will be a merde
(French for bleep!) game all around. Sorry.
Who wins? The Giants cannot afford a 0-3 start (and 2 (road)
division losses) if they want to make the playoffs. The Eagles would have a leg
up on the NFC East if they win here. And they need it since they don’t see the
Giants (in Jersey) again until the week before Christmas as part of a not fun 7
game finishing stretch (at Dallas, Chicago, at Seattle, at Rams, at Giants (to
finish road schedule) home with Oakland on Christmas night and Dallas on New
Years Eve). They may need a bunch of those games to clinch a playoff spot (or
get a better seed). The Giants will be stronger in Jersey. Eagles needs home
wins, especially in this home opener. Eagles will get this one, for if they
don’t….that could flush their season down the toilet later. Fly, Eagles, Fly!
(while you can!)
Philadelphia 28 New York Giants 17
Miami at New York Jets: I know Miami losing their great bye
week due to Hurricane Irma sucks. But they won last week’s “new opener” and now
they go to New Jersey to face the engineless Jets who got grounded and
disemboweled at Oakland last week. New Miami QB Jay Cutler was all right…but it
was just one game. Now LB Lawrence Timmons blows off (?) last week’s win at the
Chargers (after the unplanned bye week. WTF?) and is now suspended. Miami
trades to get a linebacker from the Saints to replace him this week. Getting to
avoid a cold-weather game later is a plus on the schedule. It is not wise to
call any game (right now) a near-sure thing, but this is as close as these
Dolphins will come to such except for the week 6 rematch in Miami…and perhaps
the two games with Buffalo in the final three weeks (road week 15, home in the
finale on New Year’s Eve). Got to grab wins when you can, right?
Who wins? If okay or good Cutler plays this Sunday, Miami
should roll here. If Bad Jay comes out, the Jets may steal this win. Okay Jay
shows up…and that will be enough…only for this week. Mark my words. Dolphins
win.
Miami 27 New York Jets 14
Denver at Buffalo: Wow. Denver is hanging in. How long can
the offense survive with Simien as the QB? For a little while as long as that
defense stays healthy. Buffalo doesn’t have the offense to beat the awesome
Denver defense. Even in Buffalo, Denver should be able to get it done here.
Right?
Who wins? As dangerous as Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor is, they
just won’t get points against this defense…unless the Buffalo defense generates
some against on the Denver offense. Not betting on it. Denver wins.
Denver 28 Buffalo 20
Pittsburgh at Chicago: Short and sweet….Chicago is a mess.
Pittsburgh is reasonably solid….with many more weapons on offense. If Chicago
wins this game, it is because of many Steeler mistakes and/or injuries…not due
to Chicago talent. Period.
Who wins? Seriously? I know the Bears gave a good fight
against the Falcons here, but this is no Atlanta. I cannot take this upset.
Sorry. Steelers win again.
Pittsburgh 26 Chicago 10
Atlanta at Detroit: Two good friends in starting QBs Matt
Ryan of Atlanta and Matthew Stafford of Detroit face off on undefeated teams.
Expect lots of passing yards and points on both sides. Feel bad for the
defenses and the running games. Atlanta should get some yards on the ground…Lions…not
so much. This game could be fun in the dome.
Who wins? As dangerous as Detroit is at home, especially
lately, I don’t think Atlanta lets this game get away. A chance to win a road
dome game against a team you might (doubt it) see in the playoffs? Atlanta will
get this done. Falcons win again.
Atlanta 35 Detroit 30
Tampa Bay at Minnesota: The Bucs could be real good…but
having no bye week now will have a toll..but not right now. Minnesota now knows
starter QB Sam Bradford (knee) is out again. Is his season over? If so, is the
season done for this year’s Super Bowl host city? Too early to say. This is a
trap game with Bradford at QB. It is more so with backup Case Keenum starting.
Beware, Tampa Bay.
Who wins? Like Miami and Jacksonville, I do think the early
season distractions will affect these guys…but the Jaguars got to play their
opener only because it was a road game and kept their bye week. The Bucs and
Dolphins did not. Like Florida State, who lost two home games because of the
hurricane, losing their late bye (the opener was at Miami) will hurt them now…and
even more later. The Vikings will take advantage. It may not matter later…but
we will see. Vikings score a upset in the dome.
Minnesota 27 Tampa Bay 24 (OT)
Houston at New England: Houston is still offensively
challenged. New England is pissed after choking in their home opener. The
Patriots are mostly all healthy, except from Gronk, who is sore but playing.
Not that it matters. QB Tom Brady and friends are going to make the Texans into
cold cuts after this beating. Houston’s defense will not stop that.
Who wins? No chance the Patriots will go down to 0-2 at
home. Even if Houston found a way to score 40 points…New England will just get
45. Simple as that. Patriots win again.
New England 31 Houston 20
Seattle at Tennessee: This may not be a high-scoring game.
Will Seattle bring some offense to Nashville? I doubt it. As dangerous as the
Titans can be at home, the Seattle defense is stout. This game will be brutal.
If you love low-scoring games…you will LOVE this game.
Who wins? The Titans can score…but this is not an average
defense. Scoring a combined 37 points will be tough. I am taking Tennessee only
because I don’t think Seattle will get to 14 points. 5 field goals might be enough
to steal this one. Titans get a home upset win.
Tennessee 18 Seattle 17
Cincinnati at Green Bay: Green Bay is in early trouble.
Cincinnati looks like bleep. Will there a beat down at Lambeau. Seems very
possible. QB Aaron Rodgers is very tough to beat at home. Simple call, right?
Who wins? QB Andy Dalton is no Rodgers on his best day. He
is far from that so far this year. Green Bay could not screw up enough to blow
this game. Barring major injuries, this is a okay Green Bay home win. Simple as
that.
Green Bay 30 Cincinnati 20
Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers: Could this be the
Chargers’ last stand? In week 3? It might be after two heartbreaking losses to
begin the year. These guys are down 2 games to the entire AFC West. Lose this
game and you are down three games to possibly all three teams in the division
and in the wild-card. I don’t see any rallying from that. The Chiefs will be
tested again today…but the six division games will be tough, regardless. This
is a must-watch game. Even with the Chargers losing CB Nelson Verrett for the
season (knee)…again…these guys will rally….this week.
Who wins? The Chiefs are solid, but are routinely weaker
away from Arrowhead Stadium. I think Rivers gets it down this week…somehow. But
the Chiefs will have to help them win this game. And they will. It is a choking
Chiefs kind of thing. Chargers win.
Los Angeles Chargers 30 Kansas City 27 (OT)
Sunday Night Football on NBC:
Oakland at Washington
Monday Night Football on ESPN: This will be a war. Period.
You know the history. Washington QB Kirk Cousins is good…but so is Raiders QB
Derek Carr. This will be a high-scoring game and perhaps the best game on the
SNF calendar before we get to the flex game option starting in Week 10. This
will not be great for either defense, but they will factor in a major points of
this game. Could both teams break 40 points? Maybe. Watch this game.
Who wins? The Raiders had been seemingly shaky in games
played in the Eastern/Central time zones…but in recent years, that trend has
turned around. Oakland has confidence having already beaten Tennessee in Nashville.
Washington can be as tough as the Titans, especially at home, but their (almost
expected) injury woes, especially at TE and having less at WR than in the past
will limit Cousins. Carr will have no such issues. Raiders win.
Oakland 38 Washington 27
Dallas at Arizona (last team to have home opener): Dallas
got smashed badly at Denver and cracks in the team’s unity is showing in the
immaturity of embattled RB Ezekiel Elliott. I said before the season started
that Dallas had to win a lot early in case Elliott is lost to that six-game
domestic violence suspension hanging over his head. Elliott playing like a
(bleep) last week didn’t help, though it may not have mattered in the beat-down
Denver laid down. Arizona got a needed win last week, but now needs to take
advantage of a distracted Dallas team (for more reasons than Elliott) in their
home opener. More importantly, with the NFC West looking…shaky….Arizona had
better take advantage where they can…like right now.
Who wins? I expect Elliott and Dallas to do better in this
dome this week. But Arizona may be…and needs to be more desperate than Dallas
right now if they want to win. This may not be as big a upset as it seems on paper
when the schedule came out. But a upset it will be nonetheless. And the
Cardinals will get it. Cardinals win.
Arizona 29 Dallas 27
Bonus picks: This is why I am 3-1:
I correctly predicted at least two Top 25 teams, excluding
the Tennessee-Florida game (23 vs 24, who cares?) would be upset by unranked
teams. Four top teams lost (then 12 LSU lost by 30 at now ranked Mississippi
State), 18 Kansas State, 19 Stanford and 25 UCLA at undefeated Vanderbilt (who
hosts 1 Alabama next) now ranked San Diego State and unranked (receiving a few
votes, but a LONG way from anyone’s Top 25), but undefeated Memphis (who likely
will not play another ranked team this year unless Navy gets to the top 25
before their game (unlikely), respectively.
a.
I correctly predicted the Alvarez-GGG
middleweight title fight would end in a split decision. But I didn’t see that
draw coming. That first (female?) judge who called it 118-110 Alvarez (what?) and
the third judge who called it a straight 114-114 draw are likely both blind.
Hopefully, the rematch will be quickly agreed to in the 3 week allowed window
that just opened this week…and they get better judges for the “rematch”. Hard
to call it a rematch if the first fight ended in a (questionable) draw, right?
I am taking 1.5 points and not 2 points, since there was no actual “winner” to
the fight and I had picked Alvarez to upset GGG to win the unified (?)
title(s). Just being fair.
b.
I did say that I thought a non-Chase driver
would win the NASCAR playoff opener at Chicagoland (which didn’t happen), but I
did also say “assuming regular season champ Martin Truex, Jr. doesn’t do it”.
Truex, Jr. did rally and win the race, the bonus points for the win AND the automatic
berth to the quarterfinal (Round of Eight or whatever NASCAR calls it
now..lol), plus the sizeable points lead he already had from the regular
season. I got lucky, but I am still taking a half point win for this result.
This week’s bonus picks:
1.
College Football: Not a lot of interesting games
this weekend. I do say ranked teams should beware of playing at undefeated (or
shaky record with losses), unranked conference foes this week, specifically:
a.
Especially this one: 1 Alabama AT undefeated
Vanderbilt (3-0), national 330pm EDT Saturday game on CBS, I think)
b.
20 Florida (1-1 only due to Irma) at unranked,
undefeated Kentucky (3-0)
c.
4 Penn State at unranked Iowa (both 3-0, Big Ten
opener for both).
d.
3 Oklahoma at Baylor (inexplicably 0-3, upset AT
HOME by Liberty (Virginia school!) AND Texas-San Antonio) and at Duke (WTF?)).
e.
5 USC at California (both 3-0, Pac-12 opener for
Cal)
f.
16 TCU at 6 Oklahoma State (both 3-0, Big 12
opener for both)
g.
Unranked, but undefeated Toledo (3-0) at 14
Miami (1-0 only due to Irma)
h.
22 San Diego State (3-0) at unranked Air Force
(1-1), Mountain West opener for both
i.
7 Washington at Colorado (both 3-0, Pac-12
opener for both)
j.
24 Oregon (3-0…and they are only ranked No. 24
in the nation?) at
Arizona State (1-2) Pac-12 opener for both
Upsets? I see two more coming. Take your pick where.
2.
NASCAR playoffs at New Hampshire: This race will
be wild. With Martin Truex, Jr., the points leader having won last week and
already advanced to the next one, who can grab a second automatic spot in the
playoffs with a win? Bet on Kyle Busch or Denny Hamlin doing it for JGR, or
maybe Jimmie Johnson for Chevy or Brad Keselowski or Kevin Harvick for Ford. I have
my doubt a non-Chase participant will win here, barring at least one 5+ car
wreck that takes contenders out.
3.
WWE (Raw exclusive) No Mercy PPV at Staples
Center in Los Angeles Sunday night on WWE Network:
a.
Roman Reigns beats John Cena clean. But it
doesn’t matter. Cena is off to film a movie after this and when he returns
before Survivor Series (or whenever), he will be back on Smackdown Live!, anyway.
A win will not get Reigns over. Nothing short of a Cena heel turn and
historically horrific beat-down of Reigns
and cursing of the fans in the process would.
b.
Universal Championship: Brock Lesnar retains
against Braun Strowman, but gets hurt in process, allowing him to be off TV
until Survivor Series or longer without losing the belt.
c.
Raw Tag Team Championship: Ambrose and Rollins
retain
d.
Intercontinental Championship: Jason Jordan
upsets The Miz to win the Intercontinental title, and gets beat up by the
Miztourage during and after the match.
e.
Cruiserweight Championship: Enzo Amore upsets
Neville (but will lose title in first or second title defense and/or rematch
against Neville on Raw or 205 Live within 2-3 weeks, or must relinquish it due
to injury).
f.
Finn Balor beats Bray Wyatt
g.
Raw Women’s Championship: Nia Jax wins Fatal
Five-Way over champion Alexa Bliss, former champs Sasha Banks and Bayley by
pinning (fifth competitor) Emma to win her first Women’s Championship. A new
champion is needed and Jax is the obvious and best choice versus the title changing
hands between the three women who have been champion already.
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