2017 NFL Picks
Week One:
BYE: Tampa Bay, Miami (delayed to Week 11 due to Hurricane
Irma)
Opening Night: September 7 on NBC:
Kansas City at New England: Once again, the opening NFL game
is in New England. The Patriots look as strong as ever to start the season,
with some surprising (for New England) trades. However, losing several players
for the year, especially WR Julian Edelman will hurt. The hope is that the new
receivers Phillip Dorsett and especially Brandon Cooks will cover the loss, and
then some. Maybe. As long as QB Tom Brady is healthy and playing well, New
England can overcome most losses…on offense. But the depth on defense,
especially, gives me pause…and no games have been played yet. Kansas City is
still dangerous, but look, QB Alex Smith is no Brady, and for all he has done, head
coach Andy Reid is no Bill Belichick. They have a decently strong team, but
injuries (CB Steve Nelson (IR-knee) for one) and departures (like RB Jamaal
Charles to Denver…not as big of a loss as one thinks) leaves more (of the same)
questions for this team as they try to do something they haven’t done in almost
50 years…get to a Super Bowl. This defense will be tested with Nelson’s loss,
as will the run game with whatever they have left. Yes, they still have TE
Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill…but that is not enough. KC is stronger when
they have offensive balance and strong defense. Yes, they have a lot of talent
all around, but with the rest of the AFC West being stronger, especially
Oakland and their schedule being….not fun, can the Chiefs get it done (at least
in Week One?)
Who wins? The Chiefs are not a patsy, nor will they lay down
in Foxboro. Andy Reid and his culture in KC is too strong for that. But this
coach, this QB, and this franchise all have moderately low ceilings and while
they have crashed against such for years, they can never find a way to break
through and fly higher, no matter who the coach is, no matter who the players
are. Hard to do when the intangibles and/or luck never go your way when the
(bleep) is about to hit the fan. New England is still nearly unbeatable at
home, and there may only be 2-4 teams in this league who could go to Foxboro
and beat a (mostly) healthy Patriots team WITH Brady right now, without the fix
being in (in their favor. Yeah, right). The Chiefs is not one of them…even on
their best day. Patriots win.
New England 42 Kansas City 24
Opening Day Games: September 10:
Tampa Bay at Miami: This game has been postponed to Week 11
(their original bye week) due to the oncoming Hurricane Irma approaching
Florida, expecting to hit or brush by Miami (and maybe Tampa Bay, too) on
Sunday, if not sooner. Hence, I will discuss this game at that time. Thoughts
to all those being (and who will be affected by this monster and historic
storm).
New York Jets at Buffalo: This is not going to be an easy to
watch game. The Jets are clearly trying to do whatever they must to get a top-5
(if not the top) pick in the (allegedly) quarterback-rich 2018 draft. So they
have a weak roster, just traded away DT Sheldon Richardson to Seattle for picks
and have very old and broken down QB Josh McCown as a one year placeholder. If
given enough help and breaks, McCown can run an offense and they can play some
defense and did get younger (better?) in their secondary. But the Bills still
have weapons, even after trading injury-prone former top pick WR Sammy Watkins
to the Rams, in QB Tyrod Taylor and RB LeSean McCoy. But outside of that and a
good defensive line, what do they really have? Not much…on either team.
Who wins? Who really cares? This game won’t be much to see,
but it has to be played. Neither can stop the Patriots, both want a high pick
in the draft. Who can stink it up worse? Simply put, barring major errors? The
Jets. I am taking Buffalo…ugh.
Buffalo 28 New York Jets 23
Jacksonville at Houston: With Hurricane Harvey doing nasty
things to the Houston area and the southern coast of Texas recently, playing a
NFL game this soon doesn’t seem quite right. But the city does need this home
date to help the spirits of the hurting populations. The team losing their last
preseason game due to the hurricane could hurt or maybe not. All-world DE J.J.
Watt is back and healthy and the Texans are a team that compete…if they get
anything good at the QB position. I think Tom Savage is the starter over 1st
round pick Deshaun Watson, but that could change. Jacksonville has their own QB
issues with Blake Bortles and he has to know this is his last chance to prove
he can play or he will be gone, like RGIII or Johnny Manziel just flamed out,
to name two. Unfortunately, with Hurricane Irma heading toward Florida this
weekend, they may find themselves kind of stranded and unable to immediately go
home after their game, just like the Texans were 2 weeks ago. (We hope not).
With the Texans understandably distracted, can the young Jaguars steal a
division road game (while they can)?
Who wins? The answer is, I don’t think so. The Jaguars are
young and have talent. But I don’t think they have the skill or firepower to
stop an extra-motivated Texans team from winning this one. Think the Saints in
their first home game after Katrina. Right. I fear the Jaguars may be given
similar motivation by Monday, unless the new hurricane(s) turn away from
Florida…and I doubt that seriously. Just talking football and nothing else,
Jacksonville is not ready to beat a healthy Houston team…yet. Texans win.
Houston 30 Jacksonville 21
Arizona at Detroit: This game could be a shootout. Or maybe
not. The Lions just resigned franchise QB Matthew Stafford to what is (for now)
the largest contract (extension) in league history, passing the one just signed
by Raiders QB Derek Carr. And? As good as Stafford is….this is still….Detroit.
Not impressed. Arizona’s window to go for that first Super Bowl title is nearly
shut, I think. But QB Carson Palmer is back for what might be his last hurrah
for these Cardinals. Feel bad for the defenses….for they will have a long day
at Ford Field.
Who wins? This will be a war. But Detroit is a bit younger
overall and they are playing at home. This week, that will be enough. Later in
the year….not so much. Arizona is kind of old. That worries me. I am taking
Detroit.
Detroit 38 Arizona 30
Atlanta at Chicago: Atlanta…..has a great new stadium and a
good team. But we all saw what else they have in the Super Bowl. No brains. But
none of that matters this week. Chicago is not good. Not good at all. Surely
these Falcons can in win in Chicago, right? They have the talent and the
knowledge. Plus Chicago just plain sucks. This will be a bad game.
Who wins? Barring injury, Chicago has no chance. They don’t
have the firepower to slow down not score on Atlanta. Doesn’t matter who starts
at QB for the Bears. They have nothing compared to QB Matt Ryan. And they and
everyone knows it. Atlanta wins and can go home and open that new stadium…and
answer questions on how you rebound from that Super Bowl finish.
Atlanta 30 Chicago 14
Baltimore at Cincinnati: Big division fight. Both teams with
a lot to prove. Both teams with weapons and lots of desire. But how good is
either team? Hard to say. Baltimore is worried because their QB Joe Flacco has
been hurt and basically didn’t play in the preseason and barely practiced. The
veteran may be okay with the lack of field time. But can he stay healthy, with
a team that is shaky around him? And Cincinnati…whatever. Can’t win in the
playoffs. Who cares about the regular season? Show me something different.
Coach Marvin Lewis…this has to be his last stand. No more excuses. QB Andy
Dalton, WR….mostly all the same. Can’t get it done. Can they start to change
the same old, same old? Or is Lewis and these Bengals….done?
Who wins? I have no faith in the Bengals. Baltimore is
shaky, but Cincinnati is just….mediocre. And I don’t see anything that will
make them much better this year. Adding their rookies in might help, but not in
Week 1. Baltimore is steadier and more settled. And I think they will steal
this road win. Ravens win.
Baltimore 34 Cincinnati 24
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: And now…the other half of the AFC
North. Cleveland….what else need to be said about the dumpster fire of the NFL.
Will they any better this year than…the last 5? Likely not. But you have to
wonder…what if? But first overall pick DE Myles Garrett is OUT for Cleveland.
Here we go again. The Steelers are still good, but QB Ben Rothliesberger is not
young. He still has the weapons, but can he get it done? Can they protect him
well enough to let him be Big Ben…or not? Is that defense still good? But come
on….this is Cleveland. Pittsburgh can win in Cleveland, right?
Who wins? Cleveland has a punchers chance to win. But the
Steelers still have their 3 B’s (Ben, Bell, and Brown) and who does Cleveland
have to stop any, never mind all three? Right. Where the game is played doesn’t
matter. The Steelers just have too
much…this week. Steelers win.
Pittsburgh 31 Cleveland 17
Indianapolis at Los Angeles Rams: The Rams have some
defense. But…their best defender DT Aaron Donald held out the entire preseason.
He finally came back…but won’t play today (and maybe not next week either).
However, they are at home hosting a Colts team that looks not that good. Worse
yet, QB Andrew Luck is out for Lord knows how long as he continues to rehab
from his injuries from last year. So the Colts have almost nothing at QB, an
old set of playmakers led by RB Frank Gore and WR T.Y. Hilton and no good luck
at all (forgive the pun). Will these teams put more than 25 points up…combined?
Who wins? The Colts would have worried me since they are
shaky, not great outdoors and look old. But now, you have all that and no Luck?
Rams QB Jared Goff may finally get his first NFL win…..but the defense will be
why….just saying. I am taking the Rams in a minor upset….or is it a upset?
Los Angeles Rams 15 Indianapolis 9
Seattle at Green Bay: This is a must watch game. Seattle
comes to Green Bay looking even stronger on defense with the addition of DE
Sheldon Richardson (trade with the Jets) to the iconic Legion of Boom secondary
to face the Packers and QB Aaron Rodgers. This will be a great game. Let’s hope
the officials don’t get dumb….like a certain game a few years ago. You know the
one. Watch this game. It will be fun.
Who wins? This is a classic battle of offense versus
defense. We know Seattle seems shakier away from home, but that defense…is
fierce. Rodgers has weapons too, but I am not so convinced they will come out
on fire, even at home. Plus, the Packers defense is nowhere near as good.
Sorry. I have to take Seattle here. A rematch in the playoffs will NOT surprise
me, though.
Seattle 27 Green Bay 23
Carolina at San Francisco: This is not a must see game. The
Niners really suck too. But, this is a trap game off the bat. Carolina has a
great new playmaker in rookie RB Christian McCaffrey. But former NFL MVP QB Cam
Newton looks fragile right now. Very little preseason play. How is that body?
How is that arm? After that beat down in the opener last year, which included a
couple of Denver cheap shots, Newton has not looked so good. Which Newton will
appear in Santa Clara? If it is shadow Cam, can the weak Niners take advantage?
Who wins? I don’t see 0-16 in San Francisco, but this is a
game they can steal, unless Cam is a lot better than we think. The Niners
cannot stop full force Cam and friends, and they have all their weapons
healthy. San Francisco will make it close….but not THAT close. Panthers win.
Carolina 34 San Francisco 27
Philadelphia at Washington: This is another must watch game.
NFC East games are hard-hitting, nasty and is never friendly. The Eagles are
trying to build something and is on their way. Starting with QB Carson Wentz,
they have weapons all around. But they are still needing some things. So does
Washington. The contract situation with QB Kirk Cousins is beyond belief. The
Redskins let both of their best receivers leave, partially due to this, so now
younger guys are the weapons Cousins must use to maybe finally get that long
term deal (right?). True, TE Jordan Reed is still here, but he is hampered (big
toe) already. Is RB Rob Kelley the real deal? Can the young WRs get it done? If
Cousins can still put up similar numbers with this bunch, Washington will
finally give him the money…right? What if he can’t? What then? This will be a
wild year…in both cities.
Who wins? Toss up. It will come down to who makes fewer
mistakes and who plays harder. Washington may play harder, but make fewer
mistakes? Hard to say. I will take the home team, but this game is no easy
thing. A tie would not surprise me. Nor would a few near-fights. Watch this
game.
Washington 31 Philadelphia 28 (OT)
Oakland at Tennessee: This is an intriguing battle of teams
with young guns at QB. Both teams have great young QBs….but are coming off leg
injuries. Tennessee may be on the verge of going to the playoffs. But….is QB
Marcus Mariota ready? Is his WRs? We know of the power running game…but is the
rest of the team ready? Oakland made the playoffs for the first time since the
early days of this century, but lost QB Derek Carr just before the playoffs and
that ended that. Carr is back and he has more weapons on offense with the
additions of WR/KR Cordelle Patterson and TE Jared Cook..and of course, Oakland
native RB Marshawn Lynch. But despite having all-world DE/LB Khalil Mack on
defense, the rest is…shaky, especially against the run. IF the defense doesn’t improve,
Oakland is in trouble, even if Carr can lead the offense to more scoring. We
all know Tennessee will run a lot on this team, but is running going to be
enough to beat Oakland? Can the Titans defense stop the Raiders offense?
Who wins? The scoreboard and the fans. Scoring could abound
in this game. Running the ball is good…but I sense the Raiders will be ready
for that. But the Raiders can run the ball too….and I hear nothing about
Tennessee stopping the Raiders on the ground…OR in the air. Mariota is good,
but Carr is better AND has more weapons overall, even without PK Sebastian
Janikowski (IR-back). Sorry, Tennessee, Raiders are coming in and they will win
on the road.
Oakland 40 Tennessee 31
Sunday Night Football on NBC:
New York Giants at Dallas: AGAIN??? WTF????? Fox has to be
mad to keep losing this game on the schedule every year. But it is always
entertaining. And this year will be no exception. The big storylines is
injuries versus suspension. Dallas RB Ezekiel Elliott is suspended (domestic
violence/assault/naughty boy stuff) for six games of the season after losing
his appeal on Tuesday night via arbitrator. However, Elliott IS being allowed
to play in the opener (WHY?) and then start the suspension for the second
through seventh game of the season. Hence, RBs Darren McFadden and Alfred
Morris get a reprieve on carrying the (full) load on the ground for THIS week. Losing
their final preseason game due to Hurricane Harvey trashing Houston (their
scheduled opponent) will hurt, but maybe not so much. True, Dallas still has
their other offensive weapons (QB Dak Prescott, WR Dez Bryant and TE Jason
Witten) and a very good O-line. But that wasn’t enough in a HOME playoff game
last year. Why will it be (in the regular season) now? Will Prescott have a
sophomore (season) slump? Better hope not, with former starter Tony Romo now
manning a CBS announcer’s booth. The defense still is shaky in areas…and this
team barely got by these Giants last year. The Giants are a little better
overall, and they still have QB Eli Manning. But both free agent pickup WR
Brandon Marshall (shoulder) and all-world (Mr. One-handed catch!) WR Odell
Beckham, Jr. (ankle) are hurt and one or both may not play in the opener. The
Giants may have even better defense to slow down the Cowboys offense like they
did (sort of) in last year’s opener, but will that be enough to win (this
must-win game)?
Who wins? Dallas (if they don’t make mistakes anywhere) are
still tough to beat. Some say almost ANY RB can run behind that (Great Wall of)
Dallas (II) offensive line. Starting next week (and to some extent Sunday
night)…we get to find out how true that really is and how good Prescott really
is without Elliott behind him. Now we can see if Eli can generate some magic
with some help from his defense and his offensive playmakers…or will they fall
short again, due to errors or bad luck. I am taking the Giants in an upset.
Dallas doesn’t look totally ready…and the Giants are better than last year. And
the Giants know they need this one…bad.
New York Giants 27 Dallas 24 (OT)
Monday Night Football Doubleheader on ESPN: September 11,
2017
New Orleans at Minnesota: For the first of the
now-traditional ESPN MNF Week One doubleheader games, we get an intriguing game
at the home of Super Bowl LII (on NBC). The two teams are, to an extent, new
look and showcased in the Vikings’ new palace of a stadium (we can argue later
if the Falcons’ new home looks better. If you have watched the college games
played there over Labor Day weekend, you may have your opinion ready now!). The
Saints have a still dangerous offense, bolstered with the addition of (future
HOF?) RB Adrian Peterson, who will be hungry to prove himself, but weakened
with trading away WR Brandin Cooks to the champion Patriots for their first
round pick (32 overall) this year (OT Ryan Ramczyk). The young lineman can help
protect future HOF QB Drew Brees and open holes for Peterson and incumbent
starter Mark Ingram. True, Brees can rack up passing yards with virtually anyone
catching the ball, like Tom Brady and a few other QBs. But the Saints are
running out of bodies, with Cooks gone, young WR Terron Armstead hurt, and WR
Willie Snead (DUI) suspended for the first three games. However, grabbing WR
Max McCaffrey (brother of rookie RB Christian, son of former Broncos WR Ed)
away from Green Bay for their practice squad may be good. He likely will have
to be on the active roster Monday night (and beyond). Good for him, not good
for the team. Worse yet, this defense, despite trying to improve it….still
sucks. Once again, Brees and the offense may not be able to score enough to
overcome the porous defense they have. The Vikings are hurting too, in other
places. But they do still have QB Sam Bradford in place of injured starter QB Teddy
Bridgewater (PUP-knee), who may or may not even be on the active roster this
year…if ever. Letting Peterson walk was necessary…but can rookie and top (2nd
round, 41st overall) pick RB Dalvin Cook and free agent pickup
Latavius Murray, along with RB Jerick McKinnon and veteran Bishop Sankey carry
the load and lighten such for Bradford and the weakened passing attack? Will
the five (yes, FIVE!) new offensive linemen help protect Bradford and help the
running game? Can the defense and special teams help out? Hmmmm…..
Who wins? These teams have to think for the future, but I am
not loving all the moves of both teams. Brees will be in the Hall of Fame,
Peterson might be. But I don’t know if they can do big things together with
what surrounds them in New Orleans. Not enough receivers, perhaps too many
running backs. The Vikings are excited and they can throw as long as Bradford
stays clean. If Cook has the game in the pros that he had in college, the
Vikings will be helped out, whether Murray does anything for them or not. I am
taking the Vikings at home…barely.
Minnesota 23 New Orleans 20 (OT)
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver: Well, the Chargers have move
north, allegedly for good. They however will play in a soccer stadium for at
least 2-3 years. Ouch. More on that later. These Chargers want to just do well
and not have so many damn injuries to key players. Good luck with that. IF their players can just stay on the field
and play well, this team is dangerous, especially with QB Phillip Rivers. But
with LB Denzel Perryman (ankle) on IR (likely to return later) already, along
with WR Mike Williams (back) likely out for at least September (?), I don’t
like the looks of this. Denver is hoping to bounce back, but with their
uncertainty at RB and especially QB…I don’t know. QB Trevor Simien will likely
start this first game but with backup Paxton Lynch hurt, even with the
(questionable, but likely necessary) resigning of former Bronco, Texans and
(ever so briefly) Browns starting QB Brock Osweiler, I would be very worried…even
if Simien does not get hurt. None of the three would make me that confident, no
matter what Broncos head exec and Hall of Fame Broncos QB John Elway might say.
Oh, and don’t forget they have a new head coach, too! Injuries are hurting
Denver beyond QB, though some of the other injured guys (DEs Derek Wolfe and
Jared Crick and WR Demaryius Thomas) might play in this game. If you can stay
awake long enough to see this game on MNF (I will…but then again…it will be
lunchtime on Tuesday for me here in Korea!), it will be worth it.
Who wins? Both teams need this win to have a chance to
challenge Oakland and KC for the division title and/or an AFC wildcard berth.
Every win is a premium in arguably the toughest, top to bottom, division in the
NFL today. In the end, the experience of Rivers and the train-wreck that is the
Denver offense outside of at WR will turn the tide here. I am taking the
Chargers in one of the (maybe few) winnable games this team may get all year.
Los Angeles Chargers 30 Denver 27
No comments:
Post a Comment