Disclaimer: The following is just a prediction of how the 2012 presidential race will end up, based on the knowledge, thoughts and gut feelings of one US citizen observing such from afar, as of Monday, August 20, 2012, before the nomination conventions that are fast approaching, the (expected) debates and heavy campaigning this fall. This is not an endorsement of either candidate or of any political party (major or minor) who has a candidate in this race. The author of this piece is not giving his own political views (at this time) nor does he say that this will end up (exactly) this way (or close to it). At this point, no one but God knows how this will turn up. The author reserves the right to adjust this blog post as needed depending on (unforeseen) changes in the lineup and climate of this race. The author also does not allow any part of this blog statement to be used for commercial or private use without: 1) requesting permission to do so beforehand from the author of this blog, in writing and 2) citing the name of this author and the name of this blog as the source for the text that is used by a third party for a separate blog entry and/or news story and/or editorial piece and 3) said quote is written exactly as it shown here, in the same context, to prevent confusion or worse. Thank you.
The Ebony Hammer
August 20, 2012
I think the US presidential election of 2012 will end up like most recent elections (of the last 40-50 years). There will be a lot of
back-and-forth and the normal BS. The conventions will be two big RAH-RAH
things, though the Republican one will be a lot more contentious, because of
party friction and because they are not the incumbent party for the second
election in a row. The fall will be a crazy fight to the end. The debates will
be tough affairs. Here is how I see it:
1.
Obama wins the debates: President Obama is a
better statesman and handles the media better than Governor Romney, in my opinion. He is less
likely to make a (major) mistake in the debates than the governor, I believe. All things are possible, though. We all know how
likely Vice-President Biden (or his spouse or both) is to say something dumb (no
offense to either of them) on camera (I like it though, makes them look like real people instead of cookie-cutter politician and/or spouse of such). However, the Vice-President still has much more
experience than Congressman Ryan does in debates and so on and he will win his debate(s) over Ryan,
just like the Vice-President beat Governor Palin (who probably was (and still is) far less (and no better)
prepared for this job, much less the job of President of the United States, in 2008 than Congressman Ryan is today) in 2008. (No offense to Governor Palin).
2.
The election ads will not get quite as nasty as four
years ago, but will be as (or even more) costly than four years ago. This will be the case because the Republicans
are no sure thing to hold control of the House of Representatives, much less
win control of the Senate and will do virtually anything to win both houses of Congress, as well as the White House. Don’t bet on the GOP to do all three. They will not!
3. Congressional elections: I don't know how many Senate seats are up for grabs this year, in addition to ALL 438 House seats (remember your US History, only 2 year terms in the House, 6 years in the Senate!). I don't really care. Bottom line, the electorate will not forget who tried to
block a lot of Obama’s programs, especially health care, nor what will possibly happen if the Republicans win. The Republicans have
to hold the House, win control of the Senate AND win the White House back to be
able to (try to) complete all of these (alleged) repeals that some GOP folk (allegedly) say they will do if Governor Romney is elected as President and so on. They
will not (and cannot) do all three. My predictions:
a.
The Democrats keep a slim hold on the Senate…or
it will be a (near) even split of seats, like it is now. Neither party will come close to having a super-majority here (nor I doubt either party will have such in the near future).
b.
The Republicans advantage in the House is cut
greatly, but they keep control, just barely. Slight control without control of the Senate
means almost nothing in the grand scheme of things.
4.
Who wins the White House? President Obama by a
slim majority…no landslide this time. Simply put, Romney will do better than Senator
McClain in winning normally Republican states, especially in the South. Normal
Democratic states, like New York and California, stay with Obama. However, the
battleground states will be split almost down the middle. The deciding states:
Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, maybe Colorado and/or Nevada, North Carolina, and
finally, my home state, the Commonwealth of Virginia. I think Florida and North
Carolina will go to Romney, just because they usually go Republican, but Romney (probably)
won’t have to have cheating occur to do it (like I think occurred in 2000).
Colorado, Nevada and Pennsylvania will be barely won by Obama. Ohio is a
tossup.
As such, it will come down to one state to either give a candidate the
magic 270 electoral votes or it throws the election into the House (like it should
have in 2000, or could have done in 2008 if things were different). That state is Virginia. I believe the
state has 13 electoral votes. Normally, governor and other state officials have come from from either party (back and forth), but for presidential elections, Virginia almost always goes red…except
in 2008. Obama also won Nevada, Ohio, and even Illinois, Pennsylvania, Florida (shocker!), North Carolina and that, plus somehow winning Virginia, put him over the top in the Electoral College and made that election a
near-landslide, which included just under 53 percent of the popular vote and
majority of states and the District of Columbia.
However, this year, Romney and Ryan will rally the Republican base better than McCain and Palin
did, especially after 8 years of former President George W. Bush (no
surprise). Honestly, barring major errors, did you really think the Democrats would NOT win the White House in 2008? Get real.
Obama will not carry all of those battleground states this time, unless Romney really
screws up somewhere. Split Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Nevada and one or
two smaller states (say New Mexico and Nebraska) for Romney, and Pennsylvania
and Illinois to the President. That puts both short of 270. That leaves
Virginia as the tipping point. I believe that, like in 2008, whoever wins
Virginia wins the election. I think the President will barely win Virginia and
win re-election by a very slim majority in the Electoral College (maybe with
285-290 votes) and the popular vote…maybe with right at 50 percent, but not much more or much less than that.
Otherwise,
the election goes into the House and a single vote for each state delegation (the
current group, not the incoming one for next year’s term). If that vote finishes in
a tie (I am guessing 25-25, for I don’t think the District, Puerto Rico get
votes here), then the President of the Senate (meaning Vice-President Biden) casts the
deciding vote. Hence, the Democrats win.
Honestly,
I want to see the election go into the House, both from a historical
standpoint, but to also just screw things up and make everyone (news
organizations, candidates, Congresspersons, and the public) run to Google,
history texts and the like to figure out what this little known wrinkle in our
election system is, means and how it works. Why not have this happen once or twice
(every 200+ years or so)? True, this could mean the wrong candidate wins and it
means the vote comes down to less than 400 persons instead of the popular vote.
Yes, but that is part of the Constitution and as of today, we cannot do anything about it. This will mean someone will push harder (maybe) to scrap the Electoral College
entirely, but that has been discussed for decades and no one has seriously
tried to do it…partially because it would take a bit more than an act of Congress to
pull it off. Not likely.
The
Founders put this in for a reason, possibly to make elections fair (and without
widespread corruption) for all candidates and to make sure EVERY state and EVERY voter's vote does matter, not just those from the most populated 12 to15 states. This means
Nevada’s 5 electoral votes, or each Dakota’s and Alaska and Montana, Vermont
and even the District of Columbia’s (3 each) electoral votes do matter! I do
think it is cool that an original 13 (colonies) state (Virginia) could be the
one that decides everything…but it could be Washington state (11 votes) or
Oregon (7 votes) whose polls close later…or maybe it could be the last
states…our newest states Hawaii (4 votes) or Alaska who decide it…who knows? It
makes our elections unique, noteworthy and something everyone around the world
watches closely….every time, especially this year. I like that. Who will be
President (and Vice-President) next January? We will know about 3 months. I
look forward to it. So should we all!
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