Do I, the big
Oakland Raiders fan, really believe this team can make the playoffs this year,
or am I talking the BS or desperate hope of a true fan? I do believe this and
here is why:
1.
Personnel: This team is young, but has a solid
overall defense that can only get better. Stay healthy and this could be a
beast of a defense. This defense had starting corners who, to be honest,
sucked. They are gone, replaced by younger, hungrier and possibly (eventually)
better corners. The D-line is strong, linebackers are not bad and safeties are
good, led by Branch. Plus, having a young, defensive-minded coach who knows
this division (coming from Denver) are all pluses. The offense is young, but
has an experienced QB (Palmer) who will be better with a full off-season under
his belt. Changes in coaches won’t affect him as much as normal since he only
played half of last year. The receivers are fast, young and more experienced.
Most teams will have problems with their speed and depth stretching the field. The
O-line is improving fast, too. This all leads to…
2.
McFadden: If he stays healthy, he will give this
team 3 wins with his feet, due to ball control. That means the defense gets
more rest, fewer 3rd and longs, more time the other team’s offense
is sitting and better field position and ultimately…more points for Oakland and
fewer points against.
3.
The schedule: It is manageable. 5 of the 8 road
games are in the Eastern Time zone (KC is in the Central zone with a 405pm
start time, San Diego (the last game) is just a 2 hour flight down the coast and
is a 415pm start time, and Denver is in the Mountain time zone with a 405pm
start time and is just before the Week 5 bye week), a record for this franchise.
BUT there are no real bad weather games at all (unless Cincinnati has an early,
freak winter snow storm come through or Carolina has the same occur just before
Christmas…very unlikely!) All of the other road opponents where there could be
a cold-weather issue (Pittsburgh, Denver, KC, Baltimore, Cleveland) either are
coming to Oakland or has the game in September (Denver) or early November
(Baltimore). There is only one dome game (at Atlanta right after the bye) and
only one back-to-back road games (Carolina and San Diego the last two weeks).
If Oakland wins the AFC West, the first playoff game will be in Oakland 1 or 2
weeks later. If they are a wild-card, even if the game was in, say, Buffalo or
Baltimore or Miami, Oakland would not be traveling cross-country back to back
weeks…that helps, too.
4.
Focus and fewer penalties: This team is going to
be focused and driven with this being the first full season after Mr. (Al)
Davis passed away. There will be the memorials and all and everyone who was
here last year will play extra hard to honor his memory. Increased focus will lead to fewer penalties
against Oakland (and more for opponents). This team set NFL records for number
of penalties and yards last year. Cut those numbers by a fifth; add 1-2 wins.
Cut those numbers by a quarter or more; add at least 2-3 wins. That is no less
than a wild-card berth, possibly a division title. Lastly….
5.
Health and intangibles: Lack of health cost the
Raiders the division title and the playoffs (via tie-breaker). Losing McFadden
(especially), Ford, Campbell and others for most of the second half of the year
did us in. Tebow’s miracle wins for Denver did the rest, which was a lack of
focus by other teams. Oakland has owned the AFC West the last two years, but
have played like babies versus everyone else. That ends in 2012. In 2012, the
opponent’s playing level will be lower, and the Raiders will be higher. Win the
road games at Miami, Atlanta, and Cincinnati, win the SD opener on MNF, beat
Manning (if he lasts that long) and the Broncos in Denver before the bye, and
be no less than .500 at home in the other games before the (Week 15) home
finale on December 16 (KC), Oakland can clinch the division title before the
final two games at Carolina and San Diego and just play for a 1st
round bye with one or two wins. Lastly, having replacement officials will hurt
the NFL if they start the regular season with them. However, I do think that IF
that occurs, such will hurt Oakland less than some teams. Also, an early (Week
5) bye could be good if regular officials return around Week 4 or 5 (figuring
they will need 1-2 weeks to get the kinks out), and other teams are hurt by
those errors, while the Raiders sit and recover and return from bye with the
officiating back to its normal high standards. Of course, if that dispute lasts
longer than that…every team will get screwed somehow with less than real NFL
officials, but I cannot see this Raiders team getting MORE penalties (and/or
penalty yards) than last year, either way…can we?
6.
Final record: If all of the above occurs, I see
this as an 11-5 or 12-4 year (lose to New Orleans or at Kansas City (one or the
other), at Baltimore, at Denver, at San Diego (which may not matter), and maybe
a fluke loss somewhere along the way. If there are key injuries (McFadden
especially, Palmer, Seymour or a lot of defenders), I still see a 10-6 or 9-7
season, which means wild-card (maybe division if last year is any proof). If
penalties do not improve and there are injuries….8-8 again or worse. Some think
this will be a 5-11 season for this team. They are fools and haters. This team,
even without McFadden is better than 5-11. Palmer is better than Campbell and
will win games with a full offseason and a better RB, defense and better
weather, both home AND away behind him than what he ever had in Cincinnati. The
AFC West is NOT better as a whole than last year and Oakland has only 7 games
versus playoff teams (2 versus Denver)…5 of them are road games. Win 5 road
games and at least 4-5 home games means playoffs, especially if more than 5 of
them are division games and almost all are conference games (split the NFC games
like last year will help too). Many will
disagree, but so what? This is my thoughts not yours or theirs. Good luck to
all teams in 2012…go Raiders!
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