Sunday, November 6, 2016

2016 NFL Picks Week Nine: Halfway through the 2016 Regular Season plus the Chase goes to Texas!

No more London games for 2016. One more International game...Oakland versus Houston in Mexico City on MNF in a few weeks.




Last week:



Season:




Teams on Bye:
1. New England (7-1):



2. Washington (4-3-1): A TIE???? WTF?????


3. Arizona (3-4-1):
4. Cincinnati (3-4-1):
5. Chicago (2-6):
6. Houston (5-3):


Thursday Night Football on NFL Network:
Atlanta at Tampa Bay: This is another so-so Thursday night game. This game might have looked better on the schedule in April, and again so after Tampa upset the Falcons in Week One. But the Falcons, especially QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones have blown up this season, including a 500 yard passing game and RARE 300 yard receiving game, respectively. Tampa..except in a few flashes.. behind QB Jameis Winston...not so much. Bottom line, Tampa doesn't have the defense to slow down these high flying Falcons, even outdoors. Worse yet, the horrific injuries at RB have made Tampa one-dimensional. This Tampa team won't slow down the Atlanta offense...much.

Who wins? Seriously? Barring a lot of errors, the Falcons should win. I do not see another 500-yard passing night because this game is not indoors (and yes, for teams who play in domes, it does matter!), but this should be a comfy win. Tampa...another loss. They need more bodies and some health. In a couple of years, if they get more sturdy help, this team will contend, but not now. Falcons win.

Atlanta 34 Tampa Bay 20

Sunday's Games:
Detroit at Minnesota: The Vikings started so well after so much adversity, but as we reach the halfway point in the season, reality has set in. You cannot lose so much on offense, even with a good defense, and not pay the price over a long season. Now seems to be that time for first-place Minnesota. Detroit is starting to rally after a poor start, and they are back in the division race. Only the 5-0 start and the Lions and Packers having 3 losses (including the home head-to-head win over GB) has them still ahead. Now offensive coordinator Norv Turner resigns during the week as the Vikings offense, battered and ineffective still looks horrible. Detroit has had offense, despite their (usual) many injuries, due to the surprisingly good season by QB Matthew Stafford...so far. Perhaps the retirement of WR Calvin Johnson HAS helped the Lions offense. Maybe not. If Minnesota loses again, Detroit and possibly Green Bay will be right there with eight to play. And Chicago is not quite done yet (and has as many division wins as the rest of the division...combined.). The loser of this game is in big trouble, especially if it is reeling Minnesota. A tie could be WORSE. Really.

Who wins? Changing offensive coordinators mid-week is not a good sign. I don't think it will help much...at least not this week. Injuries and bad play has hurt more than the one calling the plays. Shurmur as OC will not do much better than Turner as OC. Detroit knows they need this dome win to stay in the playoff race and a win may help make their Thanksgiving Day game mean something...for Detroit...for once in recent history. I just have to take Detroit in a close game...and Detroit has a great closer in Stafford. Bradford is all right, but Detroit has a little more on offense...and that is the difference. Lions win.

Detroit 30 Minnesota 27 (OT)

Philadelphia at New York Giants: This is another big divisional game in the midpoint week. With Washington on bye after that (bleeping) inexcusable tie in London and Dallas likely to put 50 up at Cleveland, this game becomes bigger, especially if Dallas chokes, for the loser falls to 4 losses and may well be done in the division race, and maybe in the NFC wild-card race too. The Eagles behind rookie QB Carson Wentz, has fallen to earth after a hot start behind 3 home wins...but now, Wentz needs to get a road division win. This will be hard to do at the Meadowlands. The experience of Giants QB Eli Manning and the explosiveness of mercurial WR Odell Beckham Jr. will be hard to stop at home. This is likely a elimination game with no more byes left. Must win game for BOTH teams.

Who wins? Wentz has skills, and if the Eagles add good pieces around him and also improve a decently good defense, these Eagles will be a force for years to come, especially against Dallas who have hit lotto with TWO major young offensive pieces in one draft. The Giants have Beckham, but who will be the young passer to ultimately replace Manning? or all those high-priced defenders who are not young, nor have done that great of a job based on the money spent? Hard to say. Today, experience will carry the day, and the home team has that. Wentz will learn...today will be a big lesson. Giants win.

New York Giants 33 Philadelphia 30 (OT)

New York Jets at Miami: The emergence of young Miami RB Jay Ajayi is a pleasant surprise in Miami with back to back 200-plus rushing games. If he has a chance to make it a unprecedented 3 in a row (having not been done since 1960!), the Jets may be the team, outside of Cleveland to attempt it against. The problem is that the Jets have the best run defense, by statistics, in the league (perhaps because it is much easier to throw against this defense?). Whatever. Neither team is going anywhere as far as the playoffs are concerned, barring their running the table and a LOT of help. Both teams have won two straight, but something has to give. The Jets just look bad and their QB situation is a mess. However, the Dolphins still look shaky at QB with Ryan Tannehill not looking that impressive, especially with a big contract extension in hand. Again, this is a likely elimination game where the loser is all-but done for 2016. Of course, seeing how many yards Ajayi can rack up today is the only real reason to glance at this game.

Who wins? The Jets may be able to slow down Ajayi the runner, but can they stop the receivers or Tannehill? I am not convinced. Miami has some defense too, but the Jets just don't have enough to steal a road win, especially if Ajayi gets 100 yards. I have to take the Dolphins at home. Real simple.

Miami 30 New York Jets 25

Jacksonville at Kansas City: Ugh. The Jaguars are in the midst of a poor season, when folk thought this young team was ready to contend for the playoffs this year. Ugh. This team will have to reconsider some things in the offseason. They are playing out the schedule now. The Chiefs are in the AFC West and wild-card race and need wins. They also will watch the Denver-Oakland showdown tonight and have to wonder if they can get past whomever loses (or both) to win the West. Yes, they did beat Oakland, but they split with the Chargers and have two games with Denver's D and the Raiders at home late in the season. But this is a must win and should win game. Oakland already beat the Jags in Jacksonville. Losing to this team AT HOME will be inexcusable..even with QB Chase Daniel replacing starter Alex Smith (concussion) this week. This is why KC made sure to get a viable backup QB. Fail to take advantage...and KC may be in trouble later.

Who wins? True, I see no way the Jaguars win in very tough Arrowhead Stadium. But with Smith and RB Jamaal Charles (knee-IR) out and this being another trap game, a upset has to come somewhere. Here it is. I am taking the Jags in a upset....they have a much better shot that Cleveland does!

Jacksonville 27 Kansas City 24

New Orleans at San Francisco:  Another game no one wants to watch. The Niners have not won since Week 1. Changing QBs (finally) has meant little so far, partially because the young Niners have so many holes that still need filling, more so than QB, plus injuries. The Saints are trying to dig back into the division race, but they are 3 games and a head to head loss behind the Falcons. But when you have QB Drew Brees...anything is possible. He could run up some yards in Santa Clara because the Niners defense will not stop this future HOF QB. Period. Can the Saints defense stop QB Colin Kaepernick? Maybe...that is the best I can say.

Who wins? Do we really care? Not really. But if the Saints can continue to rally toward .500, then that will make things interesting in the NFC wild-card race. Still, we just want to see Brees go off. He will. Saints win going away.

New Orleans 34 San Francisco 28

Indianapolis at Green Bay: This would be a cool battle with future HOF QB Aaron Rodgers facing the exciting Colts QB Andrew Luck at historic Lambeau Field. The problem is that Rodgers has not been great much of this year and Luck..has not been lucky, except that he is still upright at this point in the year. And the Colts just plain suck. Green Bay, despite their injuries at RB and other struggles, know that Minnesota is still right in the crosshairs with a lot of time left to play. The Colts had a chance to be right on the heels of the first-place Texans earlier...and they blew it. The Colts have no defense (nothing new) and just to be honest, a shaky offense WITH Luck! Not good. This game will be ugly.

Who wins? Really? For all the talent Luck has..his team is not great outdoors at their best. They are far from that. This is a must win for Green Bay, especially at home. Rodgers and friends are too good to let this game slip away, with or without a viable RB, with Lacy on IR. Better fix that quick...somehow. Packers win.

Green Bay 30 Indianapolis 20

Tennessee at San Diego: Tennessee is not supposed to be contending. San Diego should have been. But things are crazy in the NFL these days. The 4-4 Titans need every win as they have the Texans (on bye) in their sights. But these Chargers are no joke and are too dangerous to ignore in the wild-card race, even though they are last in the AFC West, especially if one or more of those teams falter. Chargers QB Philip Rivers has had player after player go down, but these guys have more heart and fight than just about any team in the league, especially at home. If the young Titans want to show they are for real (and move over .500), they must win this game on the road. This is a REAL test, forget the records. But can they?

Who wins? This is a game to watch in the late games today. Titans QB Marcus Mariota is good, but it is too early to say how good. A road battle against a potential future HOF QB in Rivers will help tell that story. But it is the supporting cast that tells the tale. San Diego has more...hence they win at home. Sorry.

San Diego 35 Tennessee 28

Carolina at Los Angeles Rams: The Carolina desperation tour continues. The Panthers likely must run the table to steal a NFC wild-card. They have the offense under QB Cam Newton to do it...if he can stay healthy, but that defense is bad...real bad. With that and all the injuries and the battering of Newton all year, which will continue, I just don't see it happening.The Rams have defenders...but that offense...is not good. Three straight losses after 3 straight upset wins after getting (bleeped) at the Niners in the MNF opener (who have not won since). Not good. Maybe Rams QB Case Keenum has game...and he does have RB Todd Gurley...but this team needs more. I know it is year one back in LA, but this team should be better, with that defense. Should top overall pick QB Jared Goff be playing? Maybe not...yet. The Rams must win to stay in the playoff race, especially with the Panthers not looking good. If they don;'t. time to get Goff on the field and consider whether you have to trade one of these QBs for some picks in the off-season to get more help. If Carolina loses, they may well be done.

Who wins? Too close to call. But I do think Carolina has more offense that is proven to pull this out in a close one. But if Newton gets beat up and/or gets concussed again....season over. Backup QB Derek Anderson had better be ready with his running shoes on. These Rams will be tough, but won't score enough to win. Panthers win.

Carolina 24 Los Angeles 17

Dallas at Cleveland:  This is like like Alabama playing....Virginia in college football right now. This is the trap game of trap games. If there is any game coming home that Dallas CAN afford to lose, it is this one with a 2 game division lead, and the closest two playing each other and Washington on bye with three losses and that (bleeping) TIE!....never mind. Cleveland just needs a win to avoid the possibility of 0-16. Doing it over a (likely) playoff team at home would be huge. With the Niners the only major contender for the top overall pick that Cleveland is in position for right now, surely a win is coming for the Browns, right?

Who wins? Yes, a win is coming, but I cannot see it this week. However, with nothing to lose, rookie QB Cody Kessler and the Browns might as well go for it against Dallas, especially with a few injuries on them, the looming shadow of a QB Tony Romo return in the Cowboys' minds and surely looking ahead to looming division games down the road. Still, Dallas can just run the ball and win. They have WR Dez Bryant back and RB Ezekiel Elliott is running toward (rookie) history. QB Dak Prescott will have a okay game. If that is NOT enough to beat the Browns on the road, Dallas may be in more trouble than they think, with or without a (allegedly) healthy Romo. Cowboys win.

Dallas 30 Cleveland 21

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Co-game of the week. Period. Pittsburgh. Baltimore. Enough said. With Cincinnati and that (bleeping) TIE...in London...on bye this week sitting between these two in the standings, this game becomes bigger. Will injured Steelers QB Ben Roethisberger (knee) start or will he back up QB Landry Jones in this big game? I think Big Ben will be the backup and dress. Remember, the Ravens have defense and the last time this situation came up...Jones started...got hurt and Big Ben came in and WON the game. I see a similar situation here. Can Jones lead the Steelers with RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown over the shaky Ravens on the road, who are also coming off a bye? Maybe, but not likely without help. Even without the above...WATCH THIS GAME!!!

Who wins? This will be a war...always is. Should Big Ben play? I think he should sit and make sure he is ready to play starting next week with a lot of games left. Be smart, Coach Tomlin (what's up, Nupe??). Eight more games...be smart. The Ravens have to get this win, whether Big Ben plays or not..by any means necessary. Ravens QB Joe Flacco has the experience and the talent, but does he have enough around him to do it at home? Barely..with a capital B. Ravens steal this win.

Baltimore 30 Pittsburgh 27 (OT)

Sunday Night Football on NBC:
Denver at Oakland: This is the best Sunday Night match-up so far, and may well be all damn season. Both teams are 6-2 and win games with different means. Oakland has arguably the better QB and the better offense, especially with Denver losing starting RB C.J. Anderson (knee-IR) for virtually the regular season, if not the year. However, the WR battle will be epic. The Broncos have the better defense, but with S Aquib Talib injured and NOT playing tonight...that is a problem. The Raiders defense has arguably been the worst in the league and once again, the team racks up penalties. Once again, most in the league..setting a league record in (accepted) penalties against last week in Tampa Bay....(23)...but they STILL won and have not lost a road game yet (5-0). A team with 5 road wins is dangerous...unless they can't win at home. Oakland is 1-2 at home, but enter a stretch of home games, around next week's bye, before finishing the season with 3 road division games in the final four weeks (at Denver is the finale). The loser of this game is not done in any playoff race, since the loser will still be in the second wild-card spot with a minimum game lead over all non-division leaders in the AFC (assuming KC wins who also has 2 losses) so they have a advantage. A Denver win keeps the status quo for another week as they fight toward their bye in 2 weeks so they can get healthier with 4 more road games left after this one. But if Oakland wins...undisputed first place...a week off...and needing 2 wins to end the drought of non-winning seasons and maybe only needing 3-4 wins to end the drought of playoff appearances, too... with 7 to play. Epic game. WATCH this game...for after Tuesday night...we may be all too much in WTF-ville to care about the games next week.

Who wins? People finally believe in Oakland. I kept telling people they are coming. But folk thought I was dumb, or a homer..or worse. (Double middle finger to you all!) How do you like me now? This team is young, hungry and (except for the defense) is on FIRE and has stability at last to return to glory. Denver has done what they had to do, but we all know, Denver should have at least 3 or 4 losses right now, and took advantage of many home games to get here. Oakland had 5 road games in the first 8 games..and WON THEM ALL. Denver needs to push Oakland back now for facing this team in the playoffs..even in Denver...is trouble. Problem is...Denver's offense is in trouble. Oakland's defense will get better....and this team BELIEVES...and fears no one. Give this team a playoff game, especially at home...everyone is in trouble..EVEN New England (on bye). Watch closely, world. The Oakland Raiders are back...and whatever it takes, no many how many penalties....or BS.. the guard changes NOW, win or lose. We are not waiting until Week 17. Oakland earned their spot in first place. And after tonight, they will be in first....alone. Oakland PK Sebastian Janikowski puts last week behind them and will bring us home..in OT. Raiders win.

Oakland 30 Denver 27 (OT)

Monday Night Football on ESPN:
Buffalo at Seattle: The ESPN intro montage was nice for this game...though it would have been better for a Washington game...but then again...good thing they didn't use it back in Week One...lol. Seattle is the shakiest of division leaders and they have that inexcusable TIE (WTF????????) with Arizona (on bye) and they have a hurt QB in Russell Wilson and a FUBAR running game. True RB Thomas Rawls (knee) may be back in 2 weeks, but that doesn't help now. The Bills have RB issues too, but dangerous RB LeSean McCoy supposedly will play. And the vaunted Seattle secondary, the Legion of Boom, is not that great against the run, especially with hard-hitting S Chancellor still injured (not sure if he is playing). But the bottom line is this game is in Seattle and this team is nearly unbeatable here. With Minnesota and Atlanta faltering, Seattle could back into a top-2 NFC playoff seed and the bye week that goes with it (which Seattle likely needs more than anyone right now), especially if Dallas cannot keep winning down the stretch. If so, that tie may save Seattle from a wild-card home game. But the Bills, despite the ass-kicking the Patriots just gave them last week in Buffalo, has the ONLY win over a (then Brady-less) Patriots. Can this team make the playoffs? Not if they don't win (likely) 6 if not all of their final 7 games after this game as they get ready for their bye. Must win game for both. This may be the best game on MNF all year (other than Raiders-Texans in Mexico City later...maybe), certainly for intrigue and from a must-win standpoint. I will watch this game. So should you.

Who wins? That Bills defense is dangerous. This is not a good team to face with a hurting and less than totally mobile QB in Wilson right now, even at home. Seattle cannot score many points with ease and the Legion of Boom cannot win 4-6 more games without some viable offense. Buffalo doesn't have that concern and are far closer to balanced..and their QB, the dangerous and mobile Tyrod Taylor IS healthy..for now. I am taking Buffalo in a LOW-scoring upset. Of course this will end up 38-35, so go figure. But, please, Seattle. DO NOT TIE AGAIN!

Buffalo 24 Seattle 21 (OT)

Bonus Picks: NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup Playoffs: Round of Eight Semifinals: Race Eight:
Texas Motor Speedway:
This race becomes even more vital. Six-time champ Jimmie Johnson wins last week at Martinsville and clinches his spot in the Championship Four for the first time in years and a legit shot to win a record-tying seventh Sprint Cup drivers title and join Hall of Fame drivers Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt (Sr.) there and bringing Hendrick Motorsports with him. But that chance is in two weeks. Johnson gets to drive around and keep things smooth today and next week in Phoenix and make sure nothing happens to Johnson. For the other seven Chase semifinalists, this is a must win. Win and you are in the finals. But if Johnson, or a non-Chase driver (the other 32 cars) wins, that is one spot that will go to the driver with the most points in the standings after Phoenix. The four Gibbs Toyota cars are all in it...but only a maximum of 3 MIGHT make the final four. Does the two Stewart-Haas Chevys (Kurt Busch and favorite Kevin Harvick) or the lone remaining Ford (Penske's Joey Logano) have a shot? If not, which Gibbs car fails to make the final four?

Prediction: All seven drivers can win this race, period. However, they all know that Harvick is a undisputed favorite at Phoenix next week, so he may not panic if he doesn't win today at Texas. But never assume on that. However, with Logano on the front row, Harick right behind him and Gibbs drivers Kenseth and Carl Edwards (8th in the standings) all starting in the top 10, that is huge. I think, barring early wrecks, all 8 cars will finish in the top 20 in this race, But whichever 4-5 Chase cars finish outside the top 10 will be in deep trouble next week, especially if a Chase driver other than Johnson wins today. They will all have to win next week to make the Championship Four.

I think Logano shocks everyone and wins the race, with Harvick and Denny Hamlin (3rd in points) finishing in the top 5. The other 5 Chase drivers will be outside the top ten and will be desperate next week, because no one will be far enough ahead on points to clinch with a shaky finish next week. Period. I don't think Kurt Busch, Edwards or Kenseth will make the final four unless one (or two of them) win outright. I sense Kyle Busch (defending champ) and Harvick will make the Championship Four somehow, but that final spot...too close to call. Texas won't help settle that either.

The 2016 Presidential Election: Too close to call. You know the issues...you know the problems with each candidate. The third party candidates are a joke...and I could not get enough votes to win the job myself...and somehow, I think my wife won't want me to be President...though I think Collette would be a hell of a First Lady...lol...let me stop there. Bottom line...here is my prediction for Tuesday: (Make sure YOU VOTE!!!!!!!)

(Former) Secretary (of State and NY Senator) Hillary Clinton (Democrat) will win the popular vote over businessman Donald Trump (Republican) 48 percent to 44 percent. The third party and write-in candidates will get the other 6 percent.

HOWEVER, the ELECTORAL VOTES is what matters NOT the popular vote. Remember 2000?
A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.

Prediction: Clinton finishes with 285 electoral votes and wins the election. She carries Virginia and North Carolina in a vote straight down party lines (Republicans win the South, including Texas and Florida, Democrats win the North, Illinois, California and Pennsylvania) to surpass 270. I do not see Trump getting enough (or the right)states to win the Electoral College outright, nor the overall popular vote.

HOWEVER, I will not be surprised if Secretary Clinton DOES NOT earn 270 electoral votes, which would then throw the election into the House of Representatives. The 50 state delegates vote: 1 state=1 vote for the top THREE presidential Electoral College vote-earners.

IF it comes up, it would be the top TWO vote-earners for Vice President would be voted on by the Senate

But because the Republican delegations control more states in the House (29-30 states by my count), they will vote in Donald Trump as President, IF it gets this far.

Pray that it does not. But VOTE to make sure it doesn't.

No comments:

Post a Comment