My 2014 NFL Super Bowl pick: Seattle Seahawks vs Denver
Broncos
This year, the Super Bowl is at MetLife Stadium in suburban
New Jersey, the (new $1 billion) home of the NFC’s Giants and the AFC’s Jets
done as a joint New York/New Jersey production. This is the first Super Bowl in
an open-air stadium in a “cold-weather” city. The weather will apparently work
out and just be cold and not snowy or worse. Lucky NY/NJ. Luckier NFL (I will
skip the jokes about the Deep South’s weather issues this week for another blog
entry). Still, a Super Bowl played in the snow would have made this game even
more interesting, especially if two warm-weather (and/or dome) teams had made
it here.
Here is my thoughts on this game, which will be a classic
battle of great defense (Seattle) versus great offense (Denver):
Who has the advantage?
Offense: Passing offense is clearly in Denver’s favor.
Having not only future HOF QB Peyton Manning who has had arguably the best
passing season of any quarterback in the history of the game (records in
passing yards and touchdown passes), and having the receiving weapons at wide
receiver and tight end makes this is an easy call. 2nd year QB
Russell Wilson has the mindset and skills to be a great one when he is done,
but he is no Manning, even though he has mobility that Manning doesn’t (or will
ever) have, nor does he have the receivers that come close. With that said, the
running offense has to go to Seattle. RB Marshawn Lynch is, quite literally, a
beast (forgive the pun) and runs like one. Denver has a decent set of backs,
but together they do not stack up to Lynch. If this has been a snow bowl where
passing was not an option, Lynch would be a bigger advantage as long as he
could stay on the field. From an intangible standpoint, Wilson’s mobility and
the overall speed of the group of Seattle receivers trump’s Denver’s, but not
by much.
Advantage: Denver, but only because the weather will apparently be okay
on Sunday night, though still cold.
Defense: From a run defense standpoint, it may be a wash.
Denver has good linebackers and a decent line…but most opponents have not be
running on Denver much. Same thing for Seattle. The key here is pass defense.
Here, the clear advantage goes to Seattle’s self-named Legion of Boom. Young,
hungry and very skilled at causing turnovers and pass defense, they are the
Seahawks’ best chance to stop or at least slow down the great Denver passing
game. If they do and Denver’s decent (but not great) offensive line cannot
protect Manning, Seattle will have a field day. But Manning is very good at
getting the ball out of his hands, but age and diminishing physical gifts will
not allow Denver to go for the deep ball, like Wilson can. And we all know that
Denver’s pass defense SUCKS, even without the many losses they have had from
injuries and other things. If Denver can effectively run the ball AND pass well
and keep the Denver defense on the bench and score a lot, Denver wins. If not,
Seattle has a real shot if Lynch goes off again, as long as Wilson and the
offense doesn’t turn over the ball.
Advantage: Seattle, but only as long as time of possession
and the turnover battle favors Seattle.
Special teams/Intangibles: Both teams have a dangerous
returner, but I am not sure how much either will factor in the game unless
someone makes a big mistake. But these things happen in the Super Bowl or in
any game. Whichever squad can make that big play or capitalize on that big
mistake will win. Field position will be a big factor as will the punt game.
Tough call here.
Advantage: Denver, if it comes to one kick with new field
goal record-holder Matt Prater (if he Is fully recovered from his illness from
last week). Otherwise, total push. The turnover battle will likely decide this.
Bottom line: This game is mostly too close to call. Denver
has a slight experience advantage with Manning, coach John Fox and a few others
having Super Bowl experience where no one on the Seahawks has played in this
game before. It would be too easy to say that Denver has a clear advantage, but
to be honest, they do not. The overwhelming confidence of the young Seahawks is
not necessarily a disadvantage. But if it did snow hard in New Jersey during
the game, and without the thin air advantage that Denver would have if the game
was there would (slightly) favor Seattle. Clear and cold at sea level makes the
game……even. Who wins? The biggest X-factor will be Wilson. We know all the
other players will do well…the Seattle secondary (maybe), Lynch, Manning, at
least some (if not all) of the Denver receivers.
But if Wilson, who many may
figure is too young (or small in stature, compared to the far more experienced
and taller Manning, mobility-challenged as he is) can play really well, matches
Manning yard-for-yard, controls the clock and throws (or sets up) touchdowns (3
or more) and doesn’t turn the ball over (preferably at all, but at least far
less often than Denver does), especially against the porous Denver pass defense, he will help these Seahawks win their first NFL title
(and first sports championship for the
city in 30-plus years). And I think he will. BUT, it will be close and it will
take at least one overtime (which will be a first for the Super Bowl) to settle
it. Sorry, Peyton. You are great, but your skills won’t be enough this time.
Seattle 30 Denver 27 (OT)
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